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  1. #21
    Paola

    EURJPY Close To Weekly Resistance Levels

    EURJPY Close To Weekly Resistance Levels - https://blog.hotforex.com/eurjpy-clo...stance-levels/


    The pair has moved significantly lower since the November highs last year and then reversed from a 2013 consolidation area. The weekly pivot candle had a narrow range between open and closing price and since then price has moved close to 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 137.64. The level coincides with a weekly high and is therefore a likely resistance level. Stochastics and Relative Strength Index (RSI) are crossing over from oversold levels giving bullish indication. However, the sideways market from July to October last year is a likely resistance area and I am expecting it to bring to price closer to latest weekly lows again.





    EURJPY, Daily


    EURJPY has broken out of the down trend after an overshoot to the downside. The 26th January candle was a rejection candle and formed the pivot low for this potential bottoming formation. Stochastics has moved into overbought territory for the first time since November last year and price is edging closer to a resistance level at 137.26 and the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 137.72. There is a support level (former resistance) that roughly coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci level and was supporting price at the time of writing. The next level of support is in the 133.68 region, while the daily Bollinger Bands are also worth keeping an eye on especially when they are in the proximity of the previous downward channel high.





    EURNZD, 240 min


    Price has reacted from the upper end of a short term bull channel and reached the recent sideways range that is now supporting price. Should this support fail, the next significant support area is at 133.42 to 133.67 where the 50% Fibonacci level, the lower Bollinger bands and the channel low coincide.


    Conclusion:
    The pivot candle from two weeks ago had a narrow range between open and closing price, which implies that the big time frame supply and demand were in balance at those levels. Stochastics and Relative Strength Index (RSI) are crossing over from oversold levels which together with the weekly pivot candle (being relatively close to the current price) gives a longer term bullish indication. However, the fact that this is taking place just below a sideways range from the latter half of 2014 means that there is resistance above. In the daily picture the Stochastics have moved into overbought territory for the first time since November last year and the pair is now getting closer to a resistance level at 137.26 and the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 137.72. This is a long term bullish but short term bearish indication as the price is likely to correct lower from overbought levels but in the longer term picture this is a sign of the down move is likely now over. As usual, I am interested in shorts against the resistance levels and longs at supports providing the multi time frame analysis and momentum reversal signals confirm the validity of the levels.


    If you want to learn the ever so important basics on market analysis or wish to hone your skills with more advanced trading concepts, I encourage you to join me to FREE educational and Live Analysis webinars. Book your free ticket HERE!https://www.hotforex.com/en/trading-...-webinars.html



    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex



    Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

  2. #22
    Paola

    Crude Oil Has Been Attracting Buyers

    Crude Oil Has Been Attracting Buyers - https://blog.hotforex.com/crude-oil-...acting-buyers/


    Crude Oil is now trading at levels near to the 2009 lows. As the world economy is sluggish but nowhere near to the paralysis caused by the 2008 credit crunch it is safe to assume that the levels are oversold both in fundamental and technical sense. The supply of oil has increased as the US shale oil has entered the market and the Saudis have decided to defend the market share rather than price but the ever growing world population means that the limited oil resources have to be shared by an increasing number of consumers. As the population and its wealth grow the consumption of oil can only go up. The passenger trends in air travel are a good example of this. According to the International Air Transport Association the global airline industry is expected see a 7% growth in passenger traffic in 2015 with the average annual growth rate being at 5.5%. This energy intensive industry will therefore be carrying almost 30% more customers in 2020 and is likely to hedge aviation fuel costs at the current price levels. As the global GDP is still expected grow by 3.2% in 2015, it is likely that other likely hedgers include the businesses in other forms of transport and cargo business as well as mutual funds, hedge funds and other institutional investors.





    US Dollar index (inverted) and Crude Oil, Daily


    As the above chart very clearly shows the price of oil has been inversely correlated with the DXY, US Dollar Index. The blue line is the inverted DXY while the black line is the price of Crude Oil. Now that the trend in DXY is getting showing signs of indecision the Crude Oil price has become more volatile.





    Crude Oil, Weekly


    The price is fluctuating relatively close to 2009 low and is showing strength by closing last week above the last four weekly highs. This has not happened since last summer. Also, we now have a weekly pivot candle with two higher lows on each side for the first time since the August 2014. This and last week the price has established a new support level at the proximity of the high (48.35) of this pivot candle. The nearest resistance is still at the 53.60 area. Price has traded inside the lower 1.5 stdv Bollinger band for almost three weeks, yet another long term bullish sign. On the bearish side we have a potential long legged Doji candle (looks like a cross) with open and close currently fairly close to each other. While the previous candle showed strength with open way below the closing price the current candle cannot give the same indication unless we will see a strong move higher from current levels. This would in the current context have short term bearish indications.





    Crude Oil, Daily


    After breaking out of the descending regression channel the price of oil is now moving sideways between the resistance at weekly low at 53.60 and the high of weekly pivot candle at 48.35. We now have a higher high, and two higher lows at 48.35 support which suggests that the buyers are willing support price at higher levels after each retracement from the 53.60 resistance level. If this reoccurs without price creating a lower high it will create pressure against the sellers at the 53.60 resistance area.





    Crude Oil, 240 min


    The price is now at sideways range in 4h chart and has found support twice from the level just above the 61.8% Fibonacci level. I suggested in my previous analysis that we could look for intraday buy signals at approx. at this level. Now the price is at the upper Bollinger bands and Stochastics (and RSI) is indicating that it is becoming overbought.


    Conclusion:


    The levels close to previous market low are always interesting and a potential support area. Now that the price is close to 2009 lows it is likely that several hedgers are interested in stepping in. This is very likely already happening as we are seeing many bullish signs in the weekly picture: 1) a close above the last four weekly highs for the first time since the last summer, 2) a weekly pivot candle with two higher lows on each side (the first time since the August 2014), 3) the price has traded inside the lower 1.5 stdv Bollinger band for almost three weeks (again the first occurrence since the last summer). Buyers are taking the upper hand. On the bearish side the weekly chart might create a long legged Doji candle (looks like a cross) with open and close currently fairly close to each other. While the previous candle showed strength with open way below the closing price the current candle cannot give the same indication unless we will see a strong move higher from current levels. This would have short term bearish indications and mean that probabilities for move closer to the bottom end of the range would increase.


    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex



    Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

  3. #23
    Paola

    Several Technical Factors Supporting Gold

    Several Technical Factors Supporting Gold- https://blog.hotforex.com/several-te...pporting-gold/


    Price corrected lower from the levels around 1280 to 1284 as per my previous analysis and has now reached a key support area (1203 – 1220). The long term weekly trend is still down but the medium term bullish channel is more relevant for the current price action. The last week’s candle has a relatively small range and the close was not that far below from the open. This is a sign of momentum slowing down. Price is at an area that resisted price moves higher in December last year (now support) and the rising trendline is getting close. In addition, the 50% Fibonacci level is right at the last week’s low. Nearest support and resistance levels are at 1222 and 1251, while the next levels are at 1203 and 1284. Fibonacci retracement levels of 50% and 61.8% coincide with the 1222 and 1203 support levels.


    Gold, D


    Gold, Daily:


    The regression channel tool provides us a slightly different picture of the rising medium term trend. The move above 1284 level was an overshoot and now the price has reached the lower end of the channel. As the lower Bollinger Bands also reside at the current levels it is safe to assume that this is an important price region in technical sense. In addition the Stochastics oscillator is giving a signal that momentum is reversing while the indicator is below the oversold threshold. The nearest important support and resistance levels are the same in the daily time frame: 1222 and 1251.


    Gold, 4h


    Gold, 240 min:


    Price followed roughly the bear trend channel I drew in my previous analysis and provided many shorting opportunities for our traders. Now that the price has reached an important support level it has reacted higher. The Stochastics is getting close to overbought area and the price is approaching both the upper Bollinger bands and a sideways move between 1233 and 1245. This should slow the price down and cause it to test the support area again.


    Conclusion:


    There is a very good chance that Gold has bottomed and will now create a higher low somewhere close to the current levels. There are several technical factors supporting price and the price movements since the Swiss election (rejecting the increase in country’s Gold reserves) have been pretty much what I anticipated at the time (a move higher to the upper end of the long term channel). Now price is at key support levels and at the upper end of the potential bottoming formation (between 1131 and 1222). It is likely that this will act as a zone from which the price of Gold can launch higher. This view is confirmed if we’ll now see a higher weekly low (last week’s candle hints that we might get one) close to the current levels. In fact, the whole range As I said before these are the levels where I would be interested in adding to longer term Gold positions. A lower high would be a negative and increase a risk of price moving lower.


    In the short term picture, the price is at the time of writing close to a minor resistance level at which the price action should be monitored for momentum reversal signals. As the price usually never turns on a dime, it is reasonable to expect that there will be volatility or sideways move before the price of Gold can turn higher in the weekly time frame. Short term traders should take advantage of this and look for intraday momentum reversal signals (as per my teaching in the webinars) and some of those intraday positions could be turned in to swing trades as the price is at key higher timeframe support levels.


    If you would like to learn more or enhance your understanding of market basics, please join us on FREE Market Basics II webinar on Tuesday 17th February. Register HERE and as usual it is better to log in early to get your seat! - https://www.hotforex.com/en/trading-...-webinars.html



    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex



    Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

  4. #24
    Paola
    I questioned in my previous analysis (https://blog.hotforex.com/coffee-time/) on Coffee in November last year whether the price of coffee can move into new highs and pointed out that there was room for short term long trades from the levels the market was trading at the time. The short term bull moves happened pretty much according to my analysis and the targets were hit as expected and the market was not able to stage another rally into new highs. When a market can’t move higher it is likely to move lower, especially after such a big rally in 2014.


    According to Bloomberg news in January it was expected that the rainfall in January and February might not be enough for the coffee crops that are in a delicate blossom phase and could be damaged. This was bullish for coffee but the market participants did not see it that way and the technical picture has since then deteriorated. The rain in February has been below average in key regions in Brazil but as we can see the price keeps on breaking support levels and heading south. This is yet another case where the price action and price reactions to news are more relevant in understanding the market than the fundamental news itself.





    Coffee, Weekly


    The price of coffee has now broken below a support after it formed a huge top above 159.40. This break is happening with decisively higher participation (volume) which suggests that the move below the support is significant. This former support is now a resistance while there is some support at 144.92, a level that has had a varying role in the past (sometimes support and sometimes a resistance). A Fibonacci extension level coincides approximately with this level suggesting that it could act as a target one for short positions. In addition the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (drawn from the 2013 low to 2014 high) at 148.80 being in the general area of the level adds to its significance. I have left the retracement levels off the chart for better readability.


    Now that the price has broken a neckline in a huge top formation we obviously would be interested in knowing how much lower the current move could take us. Should the width of the top give any clues then the low would eventually be just above 93 dollars, a price level not seen since 2005. This would be a very sizeable move but as we have seen this market is capable of creating huge moves. We have seen excessive moves in the past: 87% from 1997 top to 2001 low and 67% from 2011 high to 2013 low.





    Coffee, Daily


    In the daily chart we have a downward channel with a bottom coinciding with the 144.90 level further increasing the technical significance of the level. Should the market retrace back to the resistance level just below 160 dollars this would give an opportunity to join this downside move and the region 144.90 would then be a reasonable target level for the trade.





    Coffee, 240 min.


    The four hour chart gives us some potential intraday reference points with the nearest resistance levels being at 155.28 and 156.36. The latter level coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci level. These levels create a potential zone for short entries but they should be used only if the lower time frame price action confirms their validity . If market is weak or in other words strongly bearish, it will turn lower from these levels. Should there be a fast move higher and through this zone, then the zone between 157.60 and 159.40 becomes important and a very potential level to look for short trades.


    Conclusion:


    The rain in February has been below average in key regions in Brazil but as we can see the price keeps on breaking support levels and heading south. This is yet another case where the price action and price reactions to news are more relevant in understanding the market than the fundamental news itself. The price of Coffee is trading below an important level that used to support price and is now a resistance. The move last year was excessive to the upside, therefore the move lower can be very sizeable as well. I look for short signals in lower time frames at the level identified in the above charts. My Target I is at 145 and Target II at 125 dollars.


    Join me on Live Analysis Webinar on Tuesday 24th February at 12:30 pm GMT. Register HERE https://www.hotforex.com/en/trading-...refid=37217and as usual it is better to log in early to get your seat!


    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex



    Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

  5. #25
    Paola
    S&P 500 in new all time highs - https://blog.hotforex.com/sp-500-in-new-all-time-highs/


    I pointed out in my previous S&P 500 analysis that the support at 1961 to 1974 area has been holding well which will add pressure to the resistance level at 2063 area. In an uptrend it is more likely that a resistance level will give in and the support levels hold. I also said that the key sectors such as energy (XLE), industrials (XLI) and basic materials (XLB) look technically sound in the weekly picture while utilities sector (XLU) lost 4,12% on Friday suggesting that the run for the safety is now over as the long only funds move money from safety oriented investments to higher beta (more riskier) stocks. There were some indications of short term weakness as well but they did not materialize. Instead the market broke above the 2062.50 resistance and has since then moved into new all-time highs.


    Over the last month the riskier sectors such as Materials, Energy, Technology and Industrials have been outperforming S&P 500 and attracting money more than Utilities, Consumer Staples and Health Care that are viewed as safe havens for long only funds. The Financials have been neutral when compared to the S&P 500. The Financials sector performance could have been stronger but it has been slowed down by technical resistance at the weekly pivot candle. Other sectors at or near resistance are technology (close to a long term channel top), energy (at a historical resistance) and consumer staples (at the recent highs).


    Further sector analysis reveals that over the last six trading days the money flows have once again favoured the Utilities and Health Care sectors over all the others with Energy and Financials lagging the most. All this put together indicates that we could see the S&P 500 slowing down over the next few trading days. However, in the longer term picture the trend and the risk appetite among the professional investors looks healthy.


    https://blog.hotforex.com/wp-content...2/SP-500-W.png


    S&P 500, Weekly


    The weekly trend is healthy as the market has once again been able to push into new highs after making higher lows in this time frame. However, at the same time the index has been now trading close to upper Bollinger Bands with the Stochastics being in overbought territory. If this week’s close will happen at the current levels then we have a candle that signals demand drying up (upward momentum slowing down). This would not be surprise after market moving higher for over three weeks in a row. The previous resistance levels at 2062.50 and 2088.75 are now support levels. While almost everything else looks rather bullish Money Flow Index is diverging strongly (bearish divergence) suggesting that the current move into new highs was not as strong as the previous one in December.


    https://blog.hotforex.com/wp-content...2/SP-500-D.png


    S&P 500, Daily


    The daily trend is contained in a relatively narrow channel while the Stochastics, RSI and MFI all are moving almost sideways in the overbought area. The market has not corrected lower for 10 trading days which suggests that an increase in volatility and a correction cannot be that far in the future. The potential support levels are the previous resistance levels: 2088.75 and 2062.50. The upper level coincides with the proximity of 23.6% Fibonacci level and the lower one with 38.2% level.


    https://blog.hotforex.com/wp-content...SP-500-4h1.png


    S&P 500, 240 min


    The 4h trend is showing some signs of weakness. The moves from the supporting uptrend line are getting weaker as evidenced by the red line. In other words the market is wedging which indicates the potential for a correction has increased. The divergence in the Stochastics is in line with this view. The nearest 4h support levels are at 2099.50 and 2082.25.


    Conclusion:


    The long term trend is healthy but in the medium term the volatility has been so low that we might see some increase and a correction to support levels. As evidenced by the sectors the market participants are not concerned about the safety aspect anymore and have been willing to take bets even in the riskier sectors. However, when turning attention to a shorter term picture it is worth mentioning that the sector analysis also reveals how over the last six trading days the money flows have been once again favouring the Utilities and Health Care sectors over all the other sectors, while Energy and Financials have lagged the most. All this put together indicates that we could see the S&P 500 slowing down and possibly correcting lower in the course of the next few trading days.


    In the longer term picture the trend and the risk appetite among the professional investors looks healthy. Short term fluctuations aside this is a sign of a healthy market and moves to support levels should be used as buying opportunities. Index being close to the weekly Bollinger Bands and the 4h chart giving first indications of momentum slowing a correction to these levels should not be that far in the future. However, as usual we want to see the intraday price action confirming the validity of my analysis and suggested support levels.



    Join me on Live Analysis Webinar on Tuesday 3rd of March at 12:30 pm GMT. Register HERE and as usual it is better to log in early to get your seat! https://www.hotforex.com/en/trading-...-webinars.html



    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

  6. #26
    Paola

    Traders Buy the USD as the US Core CPI Came in at +0.2%

    Traders Buy the USD as the US Core CPI Came in at +0.2%





    After a couple weeks of low volatility the EURUSD moved lower yesterday driven by the US inflation figures. The core CPI (change in the price of consumer goods and services excluding food and energy) rose by 0.2% instead of 0.1% expected by the economists. The CPI that includes the more volatile items (food and energy) fell by 0.7%, most since 1998. This is explained by the substantial fall in Crude Oil prices. The Fed policy makers focus on the Core CPI and therefore markets reacted to the higher than expected figure and bought the dollar as they concluded this will encourage the Fed to raise interest rates this year. However, economists believe that the effects of lower energy prices and a strong dollar will work their way to the Core CPI and cause low reading in the near future.


    EURUSD has been really tame since the last time I wrote analysis on it. The weekly picture has not changed much as the downtrend still prevails and there is a shooting star candle indicating that the price will stay in the downtrend. The combination of resistance level at 1.1460 and the 23.6% retracement level held the pair down. The current support and resistance levels nearest to the current price are 1.1098 and 1.1460.





    EURUSD, 240 min


    Now that the EURUSD has been moving sideways the daily and 4h charts are so similar that I will only comment on the latter. Price is currently resting at a pivot candle high at 1.1203 and the Stochastics are well into the oversold territory while price has moved inside the Bollinger Bands. This suggests that there should be an intraday rebound higher probably to the nearest resistance level at 1.1287. This level coincides with the 50% retracement level drawn from the Wednesday’s high to the latest low yesterday.


    Conclusion:


    This market is still in a downtrend which means that the support levels are more likely broken and resistance levels honoured. However, the price is now relatively close to the weekly low and sitting at a 4h pivot candle. In addition the price is outside the daily lower Bollinger Bands and the 4h Stochastics are oversold. Therefore a move higher should be in the cards. This should however, be only an intraday rebound as we resistance levels and a sideways range above. Should this move take place I would be looking to benefit from the weekly trend by selling short at the resistance levels, providing the lower time frame charts confirm the idea.



    Join me on Live Analysis Webinar on Tuesday 3rd of March at 12:30 pm GMT. Register HERE for FREE and as usual it is better to log in early to get your seat!
    https://www.hotforex.com/en/trading-...-webinars.html



    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex



    Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

  7. #27
    Paola

    GBP a safehaven currency in Europe

    GBP a safehaven currency in Europe - Read more: GBP a safehaven currency in Europe | HotForex Analysis





    Now that EUR is weak due to both economic, geopolitical and Greece related risks Sterling starts to look like a safe haven currency with its economy rebounding. The UK job market is recovering, Industrial activity expanding and GDP at healthy 2.7% level (almost back to its 2007 pre-crisis levels). This creates a stark contrast to the ailing Euro Area but at the same time the risk is one of contagion: Euro Area being so important trading partner to the UK its can impact the growth in the UK negatively. However, the EURGBP pair is in a downtrend and reflects both the stark differences in the economic front and the interest rate hike expectations. The Bank of England is expected to raise rates either in the third or fourth quarter while the ECB is obviously committed to the QE program announced in January.


    Price is now bouncing from general region of a 0.7255 support level, a historical pivot high. Stochastics in both weekly and daily timeframes are oversold and there is no divergence in these time frames. Out of major EUR crosses, it is the EURGBP that is the weakest and therefore makes it an ideal market to sell the rallies. The nearest resistance (a weekly low) is at 0.7340.





    EURGBP, Daily


    Since my previous analysis price moved lower and is moving sideways in the region of 0.7255 support area. Stochastics is edging closer to its moving average indicating lack of downside momentum at this support. This could of course change later in today’s trading but it shows how relevant this level was for the market participants. The pair is now moving at the lower end of the regression channel but potential resistance levels are not that far from the current levels. The nearest daily resistance levels are: 0.7300, 0.7317 and 0.7348.





    EURGBP, 240 min


    I expected price find support at 0.7255 and it did almost to a pip, rallied and then was sold again from 0.7300 level. This led to a move that touched the channel line. The current move higher is taking place after a touch at the lower end of a short term bear channel and after there was a higher low in the Stochastics (bullish divergence). There is a resistance area from 0.7300 to 0.7314 that coincides with a midline in the channel. In addition the upper Bollinger Bans are not that far above the zone either.





    Conclusion:


    With price being at a historical pivot high and close to the short term channel bottom it makes sense to wait for better levels to enter into short trades. The zone from 0.7300 to 0.7314 is an area we should be looking for momentum reversal signals as the channel midline and the upper Bollinger Bands coincide with the zone. For UK and Euro Area economic releases, see our economic calendar here: HotForex Economic Calendar https://www.hotforex.com/en/trading-...-calendar.html



    Join me on Live Analysis Webinar on Tuesday 3rd of March at 12:30 pm GMT. Register HERE for FREE and as usual it is better to log in early to get your seat! - https://www.hotforex.com/en/trading-...-webinars.html





    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex



    Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

  8. #28
    Paola

    Gold Trades Sideways At Key Support Level

    Gold Trades Sideways At Key Support Level - Gold Trades Sideways At Key Support Level | HotForex Analysis





    Lately many market participants have been focusing on this week’s jobs report from the US. This Friday the US Bureau of Labour Statistics releases the Non-Farm Payroll report, the most important piece of macro data before the next Fed meeting. This report is seen as an important indicator on when the Fed might start hiking the interest rates. Some participants expect the rate hike happen in June while most are looking to September as potential starting point for the Fed’s rate hike cycle. However, some prominent analysts believe that the Fed will be patient and start the rate hikes next year. Higher interest rates support the dollar and historically Gold has not done that well during the periods of rising dollar. At the same time demand for physical Gold is solid in Asia. India alone is consuming 800 to 1000 tons of Gold annually and imports to the country are increasing. In addition, China’s interest rate cuts in November 2014 and last Saturday are an indication that the Peoples Bank of China has moved into an easing cycle. This is a factor supporting demand for Gold in China.


    The price of Gold reached the medium term ascending trendline a bit more than a week ago and has since been trading between the support at 1200 and a weekly low from the beginning of February. This level also coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. Gold is getting oversold in terms of Stochastics and I am looking for a move higher over this week or latest the next week.





    Gold, Daily


    The resistance level at 1220 coinciding with the 50% Fibonacci level has held the price down while the 1200 area has supported price. Price is ranging sideways which is quite common after downtrend is broken and the market participants fight over the future direction of the gold price. At the moment we have a higher low in place (from yesterday) which indicates that buyers are ready bid for Gold between 1190 and 1200. There is further support from a daily pivot candle from January 2nd this year and the lower Bollinger bands (currently at 1179 and 1188).





    Gold, 240 min


    Levels outside the lower Bollinger bands and a pivot candle from 24th February have been attracting buyers lately. There was an attempt to take the price higher last week and price was making higher lows and higher highs until the resistance at 1223 proved too much for the buyers. There was rejection candle yesterday (a candle with a long shadow below). This confirms the idea of 1190 to 1200 being an important range for buyers.


    Conclusion:


    Price is now at key levels and I am looking for a move higher from this support. In the recent past it has taken two to three weeks for the price Gold to turn from support levels. Therefore should there be a rally in not so distant future. But as the market participants are looking at this Friday’s jobs release from the US as a potential indication on when Fed might be raising rates the price of Gold might be moving sideways until Friday. Should Friday’s NFP figures be a disappointment, the likelihood of Fed raising rates early would be smaller and this should support the price of Gold. Levels close to or inside the 1190 – 1200 support range should be monitored for price action based buy signals. If you want to learn about price action based trading signals, just join me to educational and live analysis webinars.


    Join me on Live Analysis Webinar on Tuesday 10th of March at 12:30 pm GMT. Register for FREE and as usual it is better to log in early to get your seat! https://www.hotforex.com/en/trading-...-webinars.html


    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

  9. #29
    Paola
    S&P Moving Sideways Above The Dec 2014 High - S&P Moving Sideways Above The Dec 2014 High | HotForex Analysis





    I suggested in my previous S&P 500 analysis S&P 500 in new all time highs | HotForex Analysis that the market could be correcting lower. This was based on both technical and sector analysis. On February 25th I wrote: over the last six trading days the money flows have been once again favouring the Utilities and Health Care sectors over all the other sectors, while Energy and Financials have lagged the most. All this put together indicates that we could see the S&P 500 slowing down and possibly correcting lower in the course of the next few trading days. Index was trading at 2011.25 points at the time of my analysis and is trading at the time of writing at 2098.75 (-87 points).


    Today’s an NFP Friday and the markets are likely to be in a waiting mode as the unemployment readings are important indicators for the Fed in deciding the timing of the first rate hike. Consensus expectation is 240K new jobs and should the number deviate strongly to the downside it’d be likely that the Fed would be more patient and delay the start of the rate hikes. Another important data point is the Average Hourly Earnings which will give an indication on the ability of consumers to consume. The Nonfarm Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings, Labour Force Participation Rate and Unemployment Rate for the month of February are published today at 13:30 GMT. For other economic releases, see the HotForex Economic Calendar here.https://www.hotforex.com/en/trading-...-calendar.html


    The last two weekly bars have been narrow bodied Dojis. This indicates lack of demand and increases probabilities that this market will correct lower. As there has been no upside momentum over the last two weeks, Stochastics is overbought and turning lower. In addition, the upper Bollinger Bands are near and have been limiting upside. Support and resistance levels in weekly picture are: 2062.50, 2088.75 and 2117.75.





    S&P 500, Daily


    After wedging a bit at the time of my previous analysis S&P 500 e-mini future (ES) moved out of the rising regression channel. Price has been supported by the pivot high at 2088.75 and 23.6% Fibonacci level with a new resistance at the latest high (2117.75). Support at 2062.50 coincides with the lower Bollinger Bands and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Should ES correct further the next important support level is 2020.50. The fact that price has been reacting higher from the proximity of 2088.75 level in suggests that this level is seen as an important support.





    S&P 500, 240 min


    Index futures have attracted buyers at 2085 area but the resistance from both the descending trendline and the previous support at 2101 level have this far blocked the moves higher. At the time of writing there isn’t much momentum to either direction as market waits for the NFP release but the moves from 2085 have been strong (hammer candles). This suggest there will be buyers at this level today. Should this level be broken the next support level at 2062.50 coincides roughly with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level. It is also a former resistance which adds to the significance of this level.


    Conclusion:


    In the longer term picture US stock market is now fairly overbought and the last two weeks’ weekly narrow body candles indicate that there is not much willingness to pay higher prices for equities but no strong need to sell off either. At the same time technology, the heaviest sector in the S&P 500 index is close to channel top and Apple the heaviest weighted stock in this sector looks like it could correct lower after a bearish weekly candle last week. Even if this correction takes place I still believe this market can move higher and therefore look for buying opportunities at support levels.


    Technicals and macro view are giving a slightly mixed message: if the employment numbers are weak the Fed is likely to start rate hikes later which would be good for the stock market. However, at the same time strong employment numbers would indicate an improving economy, which again is a reason to stay long in Stocks. Market reactions to today’s NFP release are therefore an important indicator of things to come in the near future. If market finds support either at 2085 or 2062.50 and reacts higher with good momentum (that takes ES into new highs) the technical picture stays positive and supports the long term bullish view.


    In regards to short term trading ideas I am looking for minor time frame reversal signals at the above mentioned support and resistance levels once the employment numbers are released and the market is likely to have some volatility again. Market is not likely to move strongly before the employment release later on today. Should there be no strong deviation from the consensus expectation the nearest technical levels will be honoured but higher deviation from expectations will be translated into stronger whipsaws in price. If the latter is the case, then momentum reversal traders should be looking to trade levels further away from the current price.




    Join me on Live Analysis Webinar on Tuesday 10th of March at 12:30 pm GMT. Register HERE for FREE and as usual it is better to log in early to get your seat! https://www.hotforex.com/en/trading-...-webinars.html



    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex



    Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

  10. #30
    Paola

    EURGBP Setups Have Made Hundreds of Pips

    EURGBP Setups Have Made Hundreds of Pips - EURGBP Setups Have Made Hundreds of Pips | HotForex Analysis





    We got it right again in EURGBP. The pair rallied to a resistance level I gave in my last analysis and has then sold off heavily. My view on March 2nd EURGBP analysis was that out of major EUR crosses, it is the EURGBP that is the weakest and therefore makes it an ideal market to sell the rallies. I wrote then that the zone from 0.7300 to 0.7314 is an area we should be looking for momentum reversal signals as the channel midline and the upper Bollinger Bands coincide with the zone. EURGBP rose to 0.7301 on that day and has since dropped over 200 pips. We have now had two very good sell signals in EURGBP lately. The first sell signal as per my analysis came at just below 0.7596 and now the other in proximity of 0.7301. My analysis and the signals that I teach in my webinars have made several hundred pips in EURGBP for our traders. If you would like to learn how to catch moves like this you are welcome to join me to free webinars here.https://www.hotforex.com/en/landing-...rs.html?id=118


    As the EURGBP is basically collapsing at the time of writing the weekly picture does not provide us with a lot to analyse. With trend lower indicators are oversold and price is hugging the lower Bollinger Bands. The nearest weekly support and resistance levels are 0.7022 a former resistance level from 2006 and 2007 and the last week’s low at 0.7183.





    EURGBP, Daily


    Price has extended below the regression channel and has for the first time since January 26th closed outside the lower Bollinger Bands. This suggests that the trend has moved too far too quickly. This increases probabilities for a corrective move against the prevailing trend over the coming few days.





    EURGBP, 240 min


    EURGBP trend is extended in 4h chart as well. In case there will be a move against the trend over the coming few days potential resistance levels that could turn price lower again are 0.7130 and 0.7180. The lower level is clearly a minor resistance level as it is a spot where price tried to hold the channel bottom. This caused a sideways move visible in the 60 min chart and could act as a resistance should the market be weak.


    Conclusion
    As long as the market keeps on moving lower and there is no price based evidence to the contrary there is no hurry to close the short trades. Exception to this would be price hitting the 0.7022 support level which could well bounce the price higher and therefore is a logical target level. Price is in a downtrend and we should be looking to sell rallies as long as the approach works. However, once the 0.7022 target is hit the pair is at a major consolidation level and selling rallies might get trickier. Currently I am looking at 0.7130 and 0.7180 as potential shorting levels in case there is a rally higher and 0.7022 area as a target for short trades.


    Join me on Free Webinar on Tuesday 17th of March at 12:30 pm GMT. I will show you live how to analyse the markets and look for setups for high probability trades. Register HERE https://www.hotforex.com/en/trading-...-webinars.html for FREE and as usual it is better to log in early to get your seat!


    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex



    Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

  11. #31
    Paola
    CADJPY Trading In A Range After A Shooting Star Candle - Read more: CADJPY Trading In A Range After A Shooting Star Candle | HotForex Analysis





    CADJPY has weakened substantially since November last year and has over the last weeks bounced higher from a support at 91.78. The support is loosely defined by the lower Bollinger Bands and a pivot candle from March 2014. Last week price reacted lower from a weekly low creating a shooting star candle and confirming a resistance level at 96.74. A couple of weeks ago the pair bounced from 94.17 forming a support level.





    DCADJPY, Daily


    There was a shooting star last week in the daily chart as well. CADJPY has since then moved sideways between resistance at 96.74 and a rising trendline. The resistance coincides roughly with 38.2% Fibonacci level (drawn from December 2014 high to the January 2015 low) and upper Bollinger Bands. Bollinger Bands are narrowing which indicates that the pair is nearing a breakout but to which direction? The last two days indecision is clearly visible in the chart. Stochastic Oscillator is close to being oversold and is about to cross over its signal line. This together with the rising trendline encourages the bulls but the above shooting stars and resistance that are relatively close dampens the enthusiasm.





    240CADJPY, 240 min


    The pair has been making lower highs and breaking support levels since the move to 96.74 was rejected. Fluctuations created a triangle that was resolved to the downside and provided one shorting opportunity on a rebound as the pair tested the lower end of the triangle and failed to penetrate it. Since then we have had a new lower low and lower high as the pair has been moving towards the lower end of the range. Projection from triangle points to 50% Fibonacci level (near 94.17 support). Should that support fail the next interesting support level is at 93.03 as it coincides with a 261.8% Fibonacci extension. I have left the extension levels off from the chart to improve readability.


    Conclusion


    Trading in the middle of the range is always tricky while the easiest money is made at the edges and the pair is currently trading pretty much in the middle of the range. However, the weekly and daily shooting stars at 96.74 resistance level indicate willingness to sell the CADJPY at those levels while the lower highs and lower lows in 4h chart suggest that the pair should be testing the 94.17 level in not so distant future. This far the 38.2% Fibonacci level and the rising trendline have prevented the price moving lower. In addition there was bullish divergence in the Stochastic Oscillator at the time the pair bounced higher from the trendline. The intraday picture therefore has both bullish and bearish elements while the weekly shooting star points to lower prices from current levels.


    The wide range candle from the beginning of February indicates that demand between 91.78 and 94.17 was strong. Quick moves into this area should be therefore met by willingness to bid the pair higher. Should such a quick move happen I would be interested in long signals at or near to the 93.03 support. I will be monitoring the levels close to the upper daily Bollinger Bands (at around 96.20) and the shooting star high.



    Join me on Free Webinar on Tuesday 17th of March at 12:30 pm GMT. I will show you live how to analyse the markets and look for setups for high probability trades. Register HERE for FREE and as usual it is better to log in early to get your seat!



    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex



    Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

  12. #32
    Paola

    Weekly Hammer At Support Send USDCAD Higher

    Weekly Hammer At Support Send USDCAD Higher





    USDCAD (weekly) has been moving sideways since the beginning of February. The proximity of the year 2009 high has caused the sideways move. I suggested in my analysis at the time that USDCAD should move above the latest highs as US economy is stronger than the economy in Canada. The fact that USDCAD has maintained the support well and has now created a weekly hammer candle at the support supports my view. Bears might point out that Stochastics oscillator and RSI (7) have created lower highs and therefore signal that the momentum is waning. This however, is what happens each time price moves sideways. Therefore, oscillators do not tell us anything we wouldn’t know by reading price action. Nearest support and resistance levels are at 1.2409 and 1.2835. The year 2009 high at 1.3064 would be the next major resistance once price moves beyond the 1.2835.


    Follow the link to read the full analysis
    Weekly Hammer At Support Send USDCAD Higher | HotForex Analysis

  13. #33
    Paola
    EURAUD Bouncing Higher From Support





    EURAUD, Weekly


    The pair has been making lower highs and lower lows since December 2014 suggesting that the long term momentum is to the downside. Unless the pair creates a higher low at 1.3725 the weekly picture remains bearish. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement coincides roughly with the recent pivot high while the 50% level is approximately at level with a pivot candle low (1.4476) from February this year. This suggests to me that the resistance area between 1.4340 and 1.4530 is strong and any near term price advances to the level are likely to be met with selling. Nearest important support levels are at 1.3725 and 1.3190.





    EURAUD, Daily


    With the trend to the downside and the pair at support the Stochastics is now oversold. Should today’s candle close above the Friday’s high we’d have both a price based bull signal and Stochastics closing above its 3 period MA (red line). There could be some resistance around the 1.4076 level as it has acted as a support and resistance in the past. Should the pair move beyond this level the next resistance area would be in the region of upper Bollinger Bands and the upper end of the regression channel.





    EURAUD, 60 min


    The pair has broken out of the descending regression channel and has since moved above recent reaction highs at 3849 and 3883. Now that EURAUD is retracing back to those levels I expect that there is a good chance market will find support at those levels.


    Conclusion


    Longer term picture is pointing to the downside as the pair makes lower highs and lower lows. This setup should therefore favour those looking to sell the rallies. Resistance levels between 1.4340 and 1.4530 could work out as short entry level should the market rally there. Short term traders could take advantage of a potential momentum reversal at 1.3849 and 1.3883 with a target at or near 1.4050. Look for momentum reversal signals to confirm the analysis.




    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex



    Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

  14. #34
    Paola
    GBPNZD Ranging Above Support





    The pair has just recently moved higher from weekly support level 1.9379 while another one supported price at 1.9244 sent price higher in the beginning of January. For the last three to four weeks price has been bouncing between this support and a resistance created by a weekly low (at 2.000) from December last year. Stochastics is oversold and price action takes place near lower Bollinger Bands suggesting the pair should have more upside than downside potential. On the bearish side however I should mention the fact that the pair creates lower weekly highs suggesting selling pressure coming in at fairly close to the support. This is not a very bullish sign and could lead to further consolidation at support or eventually price breaking lower.





    GBPNZD, Daily

    Price is reacting lower from a resistance at 1.9700. This resistance is created by a daily pivot candle from April 7th and coincides with a 50% Fibonacci level at 1.9691. Stochastics are pointing higher and the RSI has created a higher low while the latest low at 1.9380 was roughly equal to the low from March this year. This bullish divergence supports the upside bias but the price needs to break above the current resistance in order to create a higher high. Should the pair keep on making lower pivotal highs the pressure against the support would increase and the support could break. It is therefore essential to follow the price action over the coming days.




    GBPNZD, 240 min

    The four hour picture shows...
    Follow the link to read the analysis
    GBPNZD Ranging Above Support | HotForex Analysis



    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex



    Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

  15. #35
    Paola

    Weekly chart: Gold’s likely to move lower




    Gold, Weekly


    In my latest Gold analysis from March 18th I wrote: These levels are exactly the levels that attracted buyers in Q4 2014 which suggests that there might still be some demand for Gold just below the current price. However, the psychology might have changed since December last year. Strong growth in the US labour market we have seen since then coupled with the rate hike expectations could lead to Gold breaking the support this time around. I am not taking a view that it will happen as support is support as long as it works. A close above yesterday’s high at 1159.30 would be a positive signal while a close above the 1165.70 resistance in would improve it even further. This would warrant buying intraday dips after over the coming few days with a target at 1190.


    Now we’ve seen Gold closing moving higher from the support level and hitting my target at 1190. In addition, this market has moved beyond the target and turned lower at 1224.50 resistance. At the same time Gold created a bar with a narrow range between the open and closing prices hinting a move lower. This has since then materialised and Gold has moved lower this week. This is suggesting further moves lower in the coming two weeks or so. The next important weekly support is likely to be found near the lower weekly Bollinger Bands and 1131.50 to 1142 range. Long term picture is still bearish while in the medium term I expect Gold to move sideways between the above mentioned support and resistance levels.





    Gold, Daily


    In the daily picture Gold is trading close to the 50% Fibonacci level and the Stochastics are getting close to the oversold levels. This suggests that the move lower over the last few days could slow down a bit. Yesterday we saw a rally from the 50% Fibonacci level but..
    Read the full analysis here: Weekly chart: Gold’s likely to move lower | HotForex Analysis


    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

  16. #36
    Paola

    Crude looks like it might be bottoming




    Crude oil and Inverted DXY, Daily


    In my analysis from February 5th I suggested that the crude oil could be close to levels it might bottom out. At the time I wrote: The price of oil has collapsed with the strengthening dollar and has reached levels that were last seen in the later stages of the financial crisis in 2008. This suggests that the current levels are deeply oversold both fundamentally and technically. The world economy is certainly slowing down but it is in a better shape than it was in the first quarter of 2009 when the US crude oil futures dropped to $33.35. Therefore, it makes sense to expect crude oil to be relatively close to the levels it could find a bottom.


    Now it does look like crude oil is indeed bottoming. Since January price has moved sideways and even shown some relative strength against the USD. As crude is priced in the US dollars any up moves in the US Dollar Index (DXY) should mean the price of oil goes down. However, since the end of January DXY has move higher while crude has moved sideways and has therefore showed some relative strength. As can be seen from the above chart with crude oil in black and inverted DXY in blue the strength of crude was really taken to new levels at the midway of March. Together with the fact that the crude oil has been trading levels close to the 2009 low suggests to me that we are witnessing bottoming action in the price of crude.





    Crude oil, Weekly


    Since forming a hammer candle in March the price of crude oil has been trending higher and making consecutive higher closes. Now price has moved well beyond the 53.60 resistance level. This confirms the bullishness and suggests that the price has bottomed. After such a long sideways move and relative strength against the DXY it is now more likely that price will find buyers if it retraces back to the support levels. Now that the Stochastics is indicating crude is getting overbought the next challenge for buyers is likely to be around the 23.6% Fibonacci level and the upper Bollinger Bands that are nearby. The most important support levels are at 53.60 and 46.53.





    Crude oil, Daily


    Price is trending higher in a channel and has with yesterday’s rally moved outside the upper Bollinger Bands. This suggests that the market is getting overbought in the short term. Stochastics are in the overbought territory supporting the indication from Bollinger Bands. Also, price is getting close to the channel top. The support at 53.60 looks like a logical retracement level and it coincides roughly with 23.6% Fibonacci level. I have not drawn the Fibs on the chart to maintain a better readability. Should the 53.60 support fail to hold, the next potential support level is at 50.25.





    Crude oil, 240 min


    Price has reacted with a shooting star candle and is now inside the upper Bollinger Bands. This suggests the corrective could be already underway. Stochastics support the idea as they are overbought and pointing lower.


    Conclusion


    Long term picture is bullish with the price of oil showing clear signs of market bottoming. In medium term, ie the daily trend crude is bound to move higher but might retrace first. The intraday picture is overbought and therefore bearish. I look for correction lower intraday and then keep an eye on 53.60 support region for buy signals.


    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex



    Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

  17. #37
    Paola

    HotForex Analysis: DXY Is Getting Close To Support | HotForex Analysis


    DXY, Weekly


    US Dollar Index (DXY) represents a basket of currencies in which the US dollar is valued. These include major currencies with different weights: EUR (57.6%), JPY (13.6%), GBP (11.9%), CAD (9.1%), SEK (4.2%) and CHF (3.6%). With euro having the highest weighting analysis made on DXY will have the greatest indication for EURUSD trading.


    Since March this year momentum indicators have been moving lower reflecting the fact that price has not been making new higher highs anymore. Until recently Stochastics and RSI have been moving above the overbought threshold but now are pointing lower and have moved closer to neutral values. In a price chart that means the latest price action is taking closer to the middle of the recent range. DXY has been correcting lower this week and is now close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. This ties up with the indication from the oscillators. Price is also approaching an accelerated trendline support but has created a lower high which suggests that price could be moving sideways over the coming weeks.





    DXY, Daily


    Both Stochastics and RSI are close to oversold levels with the latter attempting to tick higher at the time of writing. Price has reached a pivot candle from April 6th and is fairly close to a rising trendline support. This suggests that the downside is getting limited and we should be looking for buy signals for the dollar at levels at or below the current price. Nearest support and resistance levels are 97.46 and 99.46 which also coincides with the upper Bollinger Bands. Should the 97.46 support not hold the DXY the next important support level can be identified in the 4h chart at 97. The 50 day MA is currently in the region as well with a value of 97.08. This increases the validity of the level.





    DXY, 240


    As DXY has been trending down over the last three days there has also been some wedging in the price. This suggests that there is some resistance for dollar moving lower, especially since price came to the low of 98.07 yesterday. At the moment the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance level has been acting as a resistance for rallies today. Price is moving closer to 97.46 support level which it has already almost touched once and bounced higher. Stochastics, RSI and MFI are oversold which supports the view that this market is near to buy levels. If the 97.46 doesn’t hold then the next support level at 97 should come into play but I am interested in price action based buy signals even between the levels.


    Conclusion


    In the longer term picture it is clear that the Fed speak turning dovish in March has taken steam out of the DXY rally and the index has been moving sideways. Price has created a lower high which suggests weakness and that DXY could be moving sideways over the coming weeks. But in a shorter term picture DXY is close to support levels and we should therefore be looking for buy signals the dollar. This obviously means looking for sell signals in markets like AUDUSD (close to a resistance), NZDUSD (also at resistance). At the same time USDJPY is at support. Should the price action confirm my analysis this could be a time to favour USD over other currencies. Later on today we will have the CPI numbers from US and this could cause some action should there be a strong deviation from analysis expectations.


    You will find today’s economic calendar with the highest impacting events only. Please visit HotForex.com for full calendar.





    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex



    Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

  18. #38
    Paola
    HOW TO FIND HIGH PROBABILITY TRADES?





    In my analysis from April 15th I wrote: We could see Gold retesting the resistance levels at 1198 and 1208. The latter coincides with the upper Bollinger Bands and should price rally there we’d be looking for momentum reversal signals close to it.


    As we now know, Gold turned at the resistance and provided us with a great shorting opportunity!


    Join me in today’s Live Analysis Webinar and learn how to identify similar opportunities over the coming few days. I will teach you how to analyse the markets successfully and how to read price action when entering and exiting your trades.


    Twice a month we gather together to a Live Analysis Webinar to study the markets and recent price action. In these sessions I share my thoughts and analysis on currency pairs and teach our traders to understand what is important when looking for high probability trade setups. This is a great opportunity to watch and learn from what I share and get your questions answered. We’ve had excellent feed back from our traders on these sessions. I am convinced that you will benefit greatly by investing an hour of your time with the rest of us. Please, follow the link below and book your seat.


    You are warmly welcome to join me to a Live Analysis Webinar at 1 pm GMT. Book your seat! The seats are limited so sign up now and log in early.


    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex

  19. #39
    Paola

    Coffee Futures Reacting Lower From Resistance

    COFFEE FUTURES REACTING LOWER FROM RESISTANCE


    Market Analysis— 23 April 2015


    Coffee, Weekly
    The last time I wrote about market moves in coffee the coffee futures were trading at 152.65 and based on the price action I suggested price should move lower and gave $145 and $125 as my downside targets. Since then target one was hit and price has moved as low as $128.80, close to the target II at $125. The first level was penetrated without any effort but then it turned into a resistance that has kept price capped for almost two months. Price of coffee found support at 161.8% Fibonacci extension level just above my target II at $125 and had a close outside the lower Bollinger Bands. Since then we’ve seen this market moving sideways inside the Bollinger Bands with roughly equal highs at $147. Price has made higher lows suggesting pressure is building against this resistance level.

    Coffee, Daily
    The 50 period MA is still pointing lower while price....read the full analysis here: Coffee Futures Reacting Lower From Resistance | HotForex Analysis

  20. #40
    Paola

    Today’s currency movers






    EURUSD didn’t move much yesterday even though some positive news was received from the negotiations on financing Greece. The pair rallied to 1.1410 but failed creating both a 4h and eventually a daily rejection candles. This was very much in line with what I have been saying over the last week about EURUSD being limited on the upside to 1.1435 and with downside potential to 1.1000. The bearish wedge supported the view and now price action has confirmed this analysis with a breakout from the wedge. Today’s price action is likely downward biased with upside limited to 1.1319 while I see support between 1.1112 and 1.1148. The nearest significant daily support and resistance levels are at 1.1050 and 1.1434.


    ECB has increased Emergency Lending Assistance to Greece this morning while the country has been now given 48 hours to reach a debt deal. EU leaders see progress in the Greek talks after the latest reform list showed a narrowing of the gap between creditors and the Tsipras administration and have given Greece 48 hours to finalise a deal. Eurozone Finance Ministers will meet again on Wednesday and could sign off a package if there is a staff level agreement by then. EU heads of state will then meet again on


    Thursday with the aim to finalise a deal by the end of the week. It is likely that this will include an extension of the current bailout agreement and financing of upcoming ECB and IMF repayments through existing ESM funds earmarked initially for Greek bank recapitalisation. Greek debt is likely to be lengthened or re-profiled, although given the current construction of the ESM holding most of Greece’s debt, an outright write off seems less likely.


    The 5.1% May US existing home sales bounce to a 5.35 mln pace yesterday beat the prior 5.31 mln four-year high to leave the strongest pace since the spike to a 5.44 mln clip back in November of 2009 with the homebuyers’ tax credit. We also saw a 4.6% median price rise to $228,700 new cycle-high, as prices now..


    Read the Full Analysis HERE Today’s Currency Movers | HotForex Analysis

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