Daily Forex Market by FXCC

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Market Overview by FXCC Sep 24 2012

Will the RBA cut rates in Sept? - NAB

The RBA 2 October rate decision has many media commentators expecting a rate cut and the market. NAB: "The Minutes from September were softer than the post Board Statement when they added the line that 'The current assessment of the inflation outlook continued to provide scope to adjust policy in response to any significant deterioration in the outlook for growth.”' But we have not seen a 'significant deterioration in the outlook for growth' since early September. At this stage we'd say a cut is less a 50% chance."

London session ahead will bring all kinds of talks related to EZ debt crisis as Greece is urged by Troika to reduce budgets even more, Spain will release plenty of key data on coming Friday, and rumors on ESM to be leveraged up to € 2 Trillion make the rounds. In the economic agenda most important and almost only data to be released will be German IFO business climate at 08:00 GMT although the Netherlands final GDP will also be published 30 minutes earlier. European Parliament Committee hearing on Libor scandal will also take place today.
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-09-24 06:00 GMT | United Kingdom. Nationwide Housing Prices (Aug)
2012-09-24 08:00 GMT | Germany. IFO - Business Climate (Sep)
2012-09-24 12:30 GMT | United States. Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Aug)
2012-09-24 14:30 GMT | United States. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index (Sep)

FOREX NEWS :
2012-09-24 04:20 GMT | EUR/USD slips below 1.2950
2012-09-24 04:07 GMT | USD/JPY rally expected to resume – H.E.Wave
2012-09-24 03:50 GMT | AUD/NZD above 1.26 off fresh 5-month lows
2012-09-24 03:07 GMT | NZD/USD under pressure; Regional bourses weigh


EURUSD : 1.29472 / 1.29476
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



1.3045 | 1.3012 | 1.2979
1.2927 | 1.2895 | 1.2860

SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Sideway
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: Instrument trades below the moving averages and we expect the pair to extend its losses later on today. Main scenario: Without significant economic news announcement, further consolidation looks reasonable today. The price progress below the next support level at 1.2927 (S1) might expose next targets at 1.2895 (S2) and 1.2860 (S3). Alternative scenario: The upside movement is limited by next resistance level at 1.2979 (R1). Surpassing of this level might enable next target at 1.3012 (R2) and any further gain would then be limited by last resistance at 1.3045 (R3).

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GBPUSD : 1.62171 / 1.62182
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



1.6295 | 1.6245 | 1.6234
1.6197 | 1.6169 | 1.6141

SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Sideway
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: GBPUSD trades in negative tone on the short term perspective however medium term bias remains positive. Main scenario: Our next targets for current retracement formation locates at 1.6197 (S1), break here is required to put focus on the next target at 1.6169 (S2). If the market gains momentum we suggest last support at 1.6141 (S3). Alternative scenario: Next resistance level is placed at 1.6234 (R1). Brake here might eventually activate bulls pressure and enable targets at 1.6245 (R2) and 1.6295 (R3).

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USDJPY : 78.043 / 78.047
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



78.47 | 78.33 | 78.18
78.00 | 77.85 | 77.69

SUMMARY : Sideway
TREND : Sideway
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: Neutral hourly studies suggest further consolidation development. We are not expecting significant volatility increase today however market is set for new targets achievement. Main scenario: If the price manage to stay below the next resistance at 78.18 (R1), we expect the see retest of our support at 78.00 (S1). Break below that level would suggest next targets at 77.85 (S2) and 77.69 (S3) in potential. Alternative scenario: Break above the 78.18 (R1)would enable higher target at 78.33 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited by 78.47 (R3).

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Signals | ECN Forex Broker | Forex Trade | FXCC )

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Market Overview by FXCC Sep 25 2012

RBA Financial Stability Review: Cautiously upbeat on the economy

According to the RBA Financial Stability Review, Australian households remain well positioned to pay back their debts. Looking at business appetite for debt, the central bank expects it to recover while reaffirming that corporate balance sheets are in good shape. The RBA commented that IMF tests indicate banks are likely to withstand severe shocks, although they remain strong to cope with any potential EZ shock, which they expect is likely to remain core risk to the global financial system. RBA warned that the decrease in profits by banks may promote unwanted riskier lending. RBA is confident that modest employment growth will continue, according to latest survey observations.

Busy day ahead for the London session in the sovereign debt auctions front, with Italy selling zero coupon bonds and the Netherlands up to € 2.5B worth of 20 year bonds, while Spain will try to sell 3 and 6 month bills. Italy's 10 year bond yields have been around 5% for current week while Spain's one have been below 6%, around multi-week lows.
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-09-25 12:30 GMT | Canada. Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)
2012-09-25 13:00 GMT | European Monetary Union. ECB President Draghi's Speech
2012-09-25 14:00 GMT | United States. Consumer Confidence (Sep)
2012-09-25 17:30 GMT | United States. Treasury's Geithner Speech

FOREX NEWS :
2012-09-25 04:43 GMT | GBP/USD still sideways below 1.6300
2012-09-25 02:31 GMT | AUD/USD snaps higher post China data
2012-09-25 01:26 GMT | Scenarios for EUR/USD to target 1.25 in Q4 - JPMorgan
2012-09-25 00:51 GMT | Has USD/JPY found temporal bottom?

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EURUSD : 1.29362 / 1.29368
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



1.3013 | 1.2984 | 1.2956
1.2923 | 1.2891 | 1.2860

SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Upward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: EURUSD formed retracement formation yesterday, turning intraday bias to the negative side however market sentiment remains positive on the medium term perspective. ECB President Draghi's Speech In focus today. Main scenario: Further easing might initiate protective orders execution and drive market price below the next support level at 1.2923 (S1). Next expected targets for locates at 1.2891 (S2) and 1.2860 (S3). Alternative scenario: Next resistance level is seen at 1.2956 (R1), clearance here would open way for strengthening towards to next targets at 1.2984 (R2) and 1.3013 (R3).

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GBPUSD : 1.62254 / 1.62266
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



1.6295 | 1.6270 | 1.6242
1.6212 | 1.6185 | 1.6157

SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Upward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: The pair continues to extend its weakness on the short term perspective. We expect the pair to remain on a gradual downtrend formation today. Main scenario: Our 20 sma at 1.6212 (S1) acts as next support level. Below here opens the way for a return to 1.6185 (S2) price level. Potential is seen to reach final target at 1.6157 (S3) in perspective. Alternative scenario: Risk of upside penetration is seen above the next resistance at 1.6242(R1). Clearance here would suggest next targets at 1.6270 (R2) and 1.6295 (R3) in potential.

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USDJPY : 77.790 / 77.796
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



78.20 | 78.06 | 77.91
77.73 | 77.59 | 77.44

SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Sideway
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Oversold


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: Pair has settled negative bias on the hourly timeframe however pull back formation is possible. Today’s trading session has set up negative sentiment with instrument depreciation to -0.12% from its opening price. Main scenario: If instrument holds its momentum, we expect to see penetration below the next support at 77.73 (S1). In such scenario we suggest our next targets to be placed at 77.59 (S2) and 77.44 (S3). Alternative scenario: Our 20 sma might be considered as dynamic resistance for the instrument. Successful attack to the 77.91 (R1) price level might encourage correction formation with next targets in focus at 78.06 (R2) and 78.20 (R3)

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( ECN Forex Brokers | Forex Converter | Forex Expert Advisors | FXCC )

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Market Overview by FXCC Sep 26 2012

S&P downgrades South Australia

Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services said today that it has lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on the Australian State of South Australia and the state’s financing arm, South Australian Government Financing Authority, to ‘AA’ from ‘AA+’. At the same time, we affirmed the ‘A-1+’ short-term rating on both entities. The outlook is stable.

"The London session will be a relatively quiet one in EUR macro related terms, starting with French consumer confidence at 06:45 GMT, followed by Italy retail sales at 08:00 GMT, and German preliminary CPI at 12:00 GMT. In the sovereign debt auctions front Germany will try to sell up to € 5B in 10 year bunds at 06:00 GMT, while Italy will auction up to € 9B in 6-month bills. Germany 10 year yields closed yesterday in a relative safe 1.55% well above all time record lows from July at 1.12%, while Italy 10y yields hover around 5%. EU Vice President Rehn will attend final day at Havard University today." Traders should also be alerted to possible headlines on the Spanish-bailout, protests front, Greece funding issues and any other EZ debt crisis-related news.
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-09-26 08:30 GMT | United Kingdom. BOE Credit Conditions Survey
2012-09-26 10:00 GMT | United Kingdom. CBI Distributive Trades Survey - Realized
2012-09-26 14:00 GMT | United States. New Home Sales
2012-09-26 14:30 GMT | United States. EIA Crude Oil Stocks change

FOREX NEWS :
2012-09-26 04:43 GMT | GBP/USD stops triggered below 1.6150
2012-09-26 04:19 GMT | EUR/USD breaks down to 9-day lows
2012-09-26 03:06 GMT | AUD/CAD, a good sell into strength - Westpac
2012-09-26 02:57 GMT | AUD/JPY decline extends; 38.2% Fibo support in sight

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EURUSD : 1.28735 / 1.28739
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



1.2970 | 1.2935 | 1.2899
1.2860 | 1.2827 | 1.2793

SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: Technically, market sentiment is bearish now and we expect further instrument depreciation on the medium term perspective. However fresh low, form today is acting as a bottom peak of downwards channel on the hourly chart and pull back is possible towards to our resistance levels on the short term Main scenario: Further price decrease is expected below the next support level at 1.2860 (S1). Break here is required to enable next targets at 1.2827 (S2) and 1.2793 (S3). Alternative scenario: On the other hand, consolidation looks reasonable today. The price progress above the next resistance at 1.2899 (R1) might expose next targets at 1.2935 (R2) and 1.2970 (R3) in potential.

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GBPUSD : 1.61679 / 1.61686
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



1.6237 | 1.6214 | 1.6190
1.6149 | 1.6125 | 1.6099

SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: Pair already lost -0.15% percent from its opening price today and we expect some volatility increase later on today. Medium term bias is negative for the instrument and we might see new lows ahead. Main scenario: Next support level locates at fresh low, formed today -1.6149 (S1), pushdown of the price is possible below this level. We suggest next targets at 1.6125 (S2) and 1.6099 (S3). Alternative scenario: Failure to go lower suggested support level will put in focus our resistance level at 1.6190 (R1), break here would suggest next targets at 1.6214 (R2) and 1.6237 (R3).

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USDJPY : 77.743 / 77.749
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



78.20 | 78.06 | 77.91
77.65 | 77.48 | 77.31

SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Sideway
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: Yesterday instrument trades without a priority in direction. Stochastic Oscillator is approaching bottom zone and we expect to see some consolidation ahead in such market setup with price progress towards to our resistance levels. Main scenario: A break of technically important level at 77.91 (R1) might determine positive bias for today. Next suggested targets for upside direction locates at 78.06 (R2) and 78.20 (R3). Alternative scenario: If the pair gain momentum on the down side and retest our support level at 77.65 (S1), we suggest next targets at 77.48 (S2) and 77.31 (S3).

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Calendar | Forex Trading Strategies | ECN Trading Forex | FXCC )

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Market Overview by FXCC Sep 27 2012

Moody's downgrade to Spain as early as today? - NAB

After poor risk sentiment on Wednesday, immediate risk now, according to NAB analysts, "is that Moody’s may act to slash Spain’s credit rating to junk, having warned in mid-June (when it cut Spain by three notched to Baa3) that further action was likely within three months." The timing of ratings agency actions, NAB explains, "has been exquisite so don’t bet against this happening as early as today."

Busy session ahead in London with all eyes focused on Spain, though there will also be plenty of risk events coming on the way. German import prices will be released at 06:00 GMT, followed 1 hour later by Spanish retail sales, German unemployment change at 07:55 GMT, EU M3 and private loans 5 minutes later along with Italy business sentiment, and EU business climate index and sentiment data at 09:00 GMT.
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2012-09-27 07:55 GMT | Germany. Unemployment Change
2012-09-27 08:30 GMT | United Kingdom. Gross Domestic Product
2012-09-27 12:30 GMT | United States. Core Durable Goods Orders
2012-09-27 14:00 GMT | United States. Pending Home Sales


2012-09-27 04:42 GMT | GBP/USD gently bid, UK GDP ahead
2012-09-27 04:35 GMT | EUR/USD capped below 1.2890
2012-09-27 03:43 GMT | JPY tone remains positive; 78.6% Fibo supports USD/JPY
2012-09-27 03:17 GMT | USD/CAD could hit an air pocket above 0.9850 – Saxobank


EURUSD : 1.28798 / 1.28803
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



1.2970 | 1.2935 | 1.2899
1.2860 | 1.2827 | 1.2793

SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: Market refreshed its local lows yesterday and closed in negative territory. At the moment pair is gaining 0.16% and we expect further appreciation ahead. All our supports and resistance levels remain the same today. Main scenario: Next resistance level is seen at 1.2899 (R1). Penetration above it might resume market strengthening towards to the next target at 1.2935 (R2). Remaining resistance level for today locates at 1.2970 (R3). Alternative scenario: On the flip side, support levels lie at 1.2860 (S1). Break here is required to enable next targets at 1.2827 (S2) and 1.2793 (S3).

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GBPUSD : 1.61854 / 1.61866
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



1.6241 | 1.6222 | 1.6203
1.6169 | 1.6149 | 1.6130

SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: The upwards momentum for the GBPUSD is likely to get acceleration towards to our next resistance level at 1.6203 (R1), exactly where the 38.2% Fibonacci level lies. Main scenario: Successful break through 1.6203 (R1) would open way for further upside formation towards to next targets at 1.6222 (R2) and 1.6241 (R3). Alternative scenario: Next support level stay at 1.6169 (S1), brake below it might provide a downside priority in direction for the remaining of the day. Next suggested targets at 1.6149 (S2) and 1.6130 (S3).

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USDJPY : 77.657 / 77.662
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



78.03 | 77.89 | 77.76
77.59 | 77.45 | 77.31

SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Sideway
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: Stochastic Oscillator is recently visit oversold zone and now is pointing up. We expect further penetration above the opening price and stabilization on the positive side later on today. Medium term bias remains neutral. Main scenario: Next resistance level lie at 77.76 (R1), rise above it would suggest next targets at 77.89 (R2) and 78.03 (R3). Alternative scenario: Risk of market decline is seen below the next support level at 77.59 (S1). Break here is required to enable initial downside targets at 77.45 (S2) and 77.31 (S3).

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, (ECN Forex Trading | ECN Forex Broker | Forex Trading Accounts | FXCC)

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Market Overview by FXCC Sep 28 2012

First Spanish banks stress test leaks

According to James Glynn, Senior Economics Reporter Dow Jones/Wall Street Journal, "6 Spanish banks have been found to hold sufficient capital levels, while the remaining 8 that were stress tested will need more." Majors are unchanged 90m into the Japan open, with HK opening now, which should bring some wider moves.

Friday's London session will see Spanish current account being published, along with French GDP final at 05:30 GMT, followed by German retail sales 30 minutes later, French consumer spending and PPI 45 minutes after, Spanish CPI at 07:00 GMT, Italian PPI 1 hour later, EU and Italy CPI at 09:00 GMT, and ECB governing council member Asmussen to give a speech in Berlin at 11:00 GMT.
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-09-28 07:00 GMT | Switzerland. KOF Leading Indicator
2012-09-28 12:30 GMT | Canada. Gross Domestic Product
2012-09-28 12:30 GMT | United States. Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Prices Index
2012-09-28 13:55 GMT | United States. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

FOREX NEWS :
2012-09-28 04:39 GMT | EUR/USD above 1.29 ahead of Spanish banking sector stress test results
2012-09-28 03:55 GMT | NZD/USD triggers stops above 0.8350
2012-09-28 02:35 GMT | USD selling off across the board
2012-09-28 01:54 GMT | USD/JPY on a dovish gradient - OCBC

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EURUSD : 1.29338 / 1.29342
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



1.2995 | 1.2969 | 1.2944
1.2907 | 1.2884 | 1.2858

SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Upward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: It seems that gradual decline from the major upside move expressed in correction formation comes to the end soon. Our next resistance level is the key point for the further uptrend development, if the market failed to break it today we expect to see decline below the suggested support level.Main scenario: Appreciation above the next resistance level at 1.2944 (R1) would suggest next targets at 1.2969 (R2) and 1.2995 (R3) for today and determine medium term bias. Alternative scenario: Bearish penetration below the support at 1.2907 (S1) would then targeting 1.2884 (S2) and 1.2858 (S3) intraday.

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GBPUSD : 1.62613 / 1.62623
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



1.6294 | 1.6281 | 1.6269
1.6243 | 1.6231 | 1.6217

SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Upward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Overbought


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: Yesterday positive tendency remains in power with the significant strengthening for the morning hours today. In near future we expect to see some consolidation and possibly pull back. However if it manage to stabilize above the next resistance level, market sentiment would be clearly bullish. Main scenario: Potential is seen for break above the 1.6269 level (R1) and open initial targets at 1.6281 (R2) and 1.6294 (R3) levels. Alternative scenario: Downside development remains for now limited by next support level at 1.6243 (S1), with only clear break here would be a signal of market weakening with next targets at 1.6231 (S2) and 1.6217(S3).

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USDJPY : 77.533 / 77.538
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



77.89 | 77.76 | 77.63
77.45 | 77.31 | 77.17

SUMMARY : Sideway
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Oversold


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: USDJPY almost reached our target at 77.45 and we expect further decline today as main scenario. It is clearly seen that pair broke sideways channel and volatility start gaining momentum on the hourly chart. Stochastic Oscillator is oversold and this is a good signal for the bearish market participants under the trend market conditions. Main scenario: Our next support locates at yesterday target – 77.45 (S1). Break here would open route towards to our next targets at 77.31 (S2) and 77.17 (S3). Alternative scenario: Appreciation above the next resistance level at 77.63 (R1) would suggest next targets at 77.76 (R2) and 77.89 (R3) on the upside part.

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( ECN Forex Trading System | What Is Forex | Forex Live | FXCC )

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Market Overview by FXCC Oct 01 2012

ECB on wait-and-see mode this week - Nomura

No major policy announcements is expected from the ECB in October, says Nomura Senior European Economist Nick Matthews; "we do not expect any movement on rates as the Governing Council continues to see no urgency to cut rates again" the Economist notes. Furthermore, "while the ECB is likely to continue to expect inflation to remain in line with price stability over the policy-relevant horizon, we expect the Council to continue to stress that renewed intensification of financial market tensions could affect the balance of risks for both growth and inflation." Nick notes that "recent Governing Council comments, including from within the Executive Board, have reinforced this sense of wait-and-see on interest rates."

London session ahead will mostly bring manufacturing PMIs from several EZ countries starting with Spain at 07:13 GMT, followed 30 minutes later by Italy, France 5 minutes after, Germany another 5 minutes, and finally the EU's and Greece at 07:58 GMT. Then will come Italy unemployment at 08:00 GMT, and EU's unemployment 1 hour later.
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-10-01 08:28 GMT | United Kingdom. Markit Manufacturing PMI
2012-10-01 09:00 GMT | European Monetary Union. Unemployment Rate
2012-10-01 14:00 GMT | United States. ISM Manufacturing PMI
2012-10-01 16:30 GMT | United States. Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks

FOREX NEWS :
2012-10-01 04:36 GMT | USD/JPY can rise farther
2012-10-01 04:25 GMT | EUR/USD hardly above 1.28 round
2012-10-01 02:57 GMT | AUD/JPY slips below 80.50
2012-10-01 00:10 GMT | EUR/JPY returns below 100.00

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EURUSD : 1.28212 / 1.28216
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



1.2906 | 1.2879 | 1.2853
1.2800 | 1.2773 | 1.2745

SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: Friday’s volatility increase might be a signal of downtrend development however Stochastic Oscillator is pointing up on the hourly chart and we expect to see some deviation ahead. Main scenario: Intraday term bias remains negative below the next support at 1.2800 (S1). Break here would suggest next targets at 1.2773 (S2) and 1.2745 (S3). Alternative scenario: Risk of further appreciation is seen above the resistance at 1.2853 (R1), penetration above it might expose resistances at 1.2879 (R2) and 1.2906 (R3) as next targets for correction.

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GBPUSD : 1.61268 / 1.61271
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



1.6210 | 1.6182 | 1.6156
1.6108 | 1.6079 | 1.6049

SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: GBPUSD failed to stabilize below the Friday’s low and we expect to see new attack to the fresh low, formed today. The medium term tendency is Bearish as both moving averages are pointing down. Main scenario: If GBPUSD manage to break through support level at 1.6108 (S1) we expect next targets at 1.6079 (S2) and 1.6049 (S3) to be exposed today. Alternative scenario: Next resistance level at 1.6156 (R1) in focus for the retracement formation. Progress above it would enable next target for today at 1.6182 (R2) and 1.6210 (R3).

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USDJPY : 77.875 / 77.878
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



78.28 | 78.19 | 78.10
77.83 | 77.75 | 77.67

SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Sideway
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Oversold


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: Instrument trades in positive tone after the Friday’ gains. On the hourly chart Stochastic Oscillator reached oversold zone and further increase is possible from current levels however we recommend to wait clear break out of Friday’s high for confirmation of the uptrend formation. Further decline below our support level might change overall technical picture and shift market sentiment to the bearish side. Main scenario: Next resistance is seen at 78.10 (R1). If the pair manages to successfully climb above it, we expect next targets at 78.19 (R2) and 78.28 (R3). Alternative scenario: While next support is placed at 77.83 (S1), decline below it would put in focus next target at 77.75 (S2) and any further depreciation would then be limited to 77.67 (S3) intraday.

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( ECN Forex Trader | Forex Strategies | Forex Trading Software | FXCC )

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Market Overview by FXCC Oct 02 2012

RBA cuts rate by 25bp; More may come in Nov

In today's RBA decision, the central bank has decided to cut rates by 25bp from 3.5% to 3.25%. The initial market reaction was to aggressively sell the domestic currency, as market participants pricing for -25bp to about 65% being proven right. Only 9 out of 28 replying to a Bloomberg survey agreed to such outcome, so it has been certainly a close call among the investment community.

All rates are expected to remain on hold at this Thursday’s ECB meeting, according to Standard Chartered Economists. With regards to OMT bond-buying, the bank sees Spain making a request relatively soon. Looking at the EUR/USD, "We expect the pair to grind lower as a Q4-2012 rate cut will add to pressure" Analysts at the bank say.
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-10-02 07:00 GMT | United Kingdom. Halifax House Prices
2012-10-02 08:30 GMT | United Kingdom. PMI Construction
2012-10-02 09:00 GMT | European Monetary Union. Producer Price Index
2012-10-02 Tentative | United Kingdom. 10-y Bond Auction

FOREX NEWS :
2012-10-02 05:04 GMT | AUD/NZD drops to new 2012 low after RBA
2012-10-02 05:01 GMT | EUR/AUD breaks above 2-week highs 1.25 post-RBA
2012-10-02 04:20 GMT | GBP/USD at risk for deeper correction?
2012-10-02 03:14 GMT | Buoyant AUD/JPY creeps above 81.00

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EURUSD : 1.29123 / 1.29126
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



1.3010 | 1.2974 | 1.2938
1.2875 | 1.2841 | 1.2806

SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: EURUSD closed at the positive territory yesterday and further strengthening is possible today. Yesterday high is the reference point for the upside penetration, though decrease below the suggested support level would enable bearish forces. Main scenario: Clearance of next resistance level at 1.2938 (R1) would suggest next targets at 1.2974 (R2) and 1.3010 (R3). Alternative scenario: Loss of next support at 1.2875 (S1) might take the pair towards to eventual targets, located at 1.2841 (S2) and 1.2806 (S3) in potential.

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GBPUSD : 1.61536 / 1.61541
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



1.6227 | 1.6201 | 1.6176
1.6123 | 1.6098 | 1.6070

SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Overbought


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: Consolidation, provided yesterday might extends its power however currently GBPUSD is gaining momentum on the upside and we expect to see retest of yesterday high. Main scenario: Next resistance level ahead locates at 1.6176 (R1), brake here is required to enable next target at 1.6201 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to 1.6227 (R3). Alternative scenario: Instrument depreciation below the next support level at 1.6123 (S1) might expose next targets at 1.6098 (S2) and 1.6070 (S3) in potential.

----------------
USDJPY : 78.083 / 78.086
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



78.40 | 78.29 | 78.19
77.97 | 77.89 | 77.79

SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Sideway
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: Stochastic Oscillator is recently visit overbought territory and now is pointing down. We expect to see consolidation formation ahead prior further market strengthening. However, easing below the expected support level would suggest retracement development. Main scenario: Currently our next resistance level lie at 78.19 (R1). Rise above it might provide sufficient space for the appreciation towards to next target at 78.29 (R2). Break here is required to enable last target for today at 78.40 (R3). Alternative scenario: Market decrease below the next support level at 77.97 (S1) would suggest about the retracement formation with next target at 77.89 (S2). Further instrument easing might face final support at 77.79 (S3).

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Best Forex Broker | ECN Online Forex Trading | Forex Signal | FXCC )

[alayoua]

Market Overview by FXCC Oct 03 2012

RBA cuts rate by 25bp; More may come in Nov

In today's RBA decision, the central bank has decided to cut rates by 25bp from 3.5% to 3.25%. The initial market reaction was to aggressively sell the domestic currency, as market participants pricing for -25bp to about 65% being proven right. Only 9 out of 28 replying to a Bloomberg survey agreed to such outcome, so it has been certainly a close call among the investment community.

All rates are expected to remain on hold at this Thursday’s ECB meeting, according to Standard Chartered Economists. With regards to OMT bond-buying, the bank sees Spain making a request relatively soon. Looking at the EUR/USD, "We expect the pair to grind lower as a Q4-2012 rate cut will add to pressure" Analysts at the bank say.
Read More
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/02102012/

UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-10-02 07:00 GMT | United Kingdom. Halifax House Prices
2012-10-02 08:30 GMT | United Kingdom. PMI Construction
2012-10-02 09:00 GMT | European Monetary Union. Producer Price Index
2012-10-02 Tentative | United Kingdom. 10-y Bond Auction

FOREX NEWS :
2012-10-02 05:04 GMT | AUD/NZD drops to new 2012 low after RBA
2012-10-02 05:01 GMT | EUR/AUD breaks above 2-week highs 1.25 post-RBA
2012-10-02 04:20 GMT | GBP/USD at risk for deeper correction?
2012-10-02 03:14 GMT | Buoyant AUD/JPY creeps above 81.00

-----------------
EURUSD 1.29123 / 1.29126
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



1.3010 | 1.2974 | 1.2938
1.2875 | 1.2841 | 1.2806

SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: EURUSD closed at the positive territory yesterday and further strengthening is possible today. Yesterday high is the reference point for the upside penetration, though decrease below the suggested support level would enable bearish forces. Main scenario: Clearance of next resistance level at 1.2938 (R1) would suggest next targets at 1.2974 (R2) and 1.3010 (R3). Alternative scenario: Loss of next support at 1.2875 (S1) might take the pair towards to eventual targets, located at 1.2841 (S2) and 1.2806 (S3) in potential.

-------------
GBPUSD : 1.61536 / 1.61541
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



1.6227 | 1.6201 | 1.6176
1.6123 | 1.6098 | 1.6070

SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Overbought


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: Consolidation, provided yesterday might extends its power however currently GBPUSD is gaining momentum on the upside and we expect to see retest of yesterday high. Main scenario: Next resistance level ahead locates at 1.6176 (R1), brake here is required to enable next target at 1.6201 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to 1.6227 (R3). Alternative scenario: Instrument depreciation below the next support level at 1.6123 (S1) might expose next targets at 1.6098 (S2) and 1.6070 (S3) in potential.

-----------------
USDJPY : 78.083 / 78.086
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



78.40 | 78.29 | 78.19
77.97 | 77.89 | 77.79

SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Sideway
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: Stochastic Oscillator is recently visit overbought territory and now is pointing down. We expect to see consolidation formation ahead prior further market strengthening. However, easing below the expected support level would suggest retracement development. Main scenario: Currently our next resistance level lie at 78.19 (R1). Rise above it might provide sufficient space for the appreciation towards to next target at 78.29 (R2). Break here is required to enable last target for today at 78.40 (R3). Alternative scenario: Market decrease below the next support level at 77.97 (S1) would suggest about the retracement formation with next target at 77.89 (S2). Further instrument easing might face final support at 77.79 (S3).

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, (ECN Forex Trading | ECN Forex Broker | Forex Trading Accounts | FXCC)

[alayoua]

Market Overview by FXCC Oct 04 2012

Romney hits first in US debate

Is Mitt Romney breathing new life after the controversial campaign? It appears so after his first debate in front of Barack Obama. Polls show 56% of uncommitted voters say their opinion of Romney has changed for the better, while 13% say that about the President, according to Mark Knoller, CBS News White House Correspondent. According to results of CNN-ORC Post-Debate flash poll who won the debate, Romney 67%, Obama 25%.

A busy trading Thursday for the London session ahead as having plenty of risk events going on, starting with minor data in the form of CPI figures from the Netherlands at 07:00 GMT, followed by Ireland PM Kenny meeting with EU parliament president Schultz at 11:15 GMT, and then going for the long awaited ECB interest rates statement at 11:45 GMT, 45 minutes before ECB press conference starts. BoE will also deliver monetary policy announcement at 11:00 GMT which could add volatility to EUR/GBP cross. IMF will hold press conference at 14:30 GMT.
Read More


UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-10-04 11:00 GMT | United Kingdom. BoE Interest Rate Decision
2012-10-04 11:45 GMT | European Monetary Union. ECB Interest Rate Decision
2012-10-04 14:00 GMT | United States. Factory Orders
2012-10-04 18:00 GMT | United States. FOMC Minutes


FOREX NEWS :
2012-10-04 04:54 GMT | EUR/USD has a range to break; ECB unlikely to be the catalyst
2012-10-04 04:31 GMT | USD/CAD rally pauses below trend line resistance
2012-10-04 02:36 GMT | EUR/AUD hits stops above 1.2670

--------------------
EURUSD : 1.29279 / 1.29282
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



1.3018 | 1.2987 | 1.2955
1.2895 | 1.2863 | 1.2829

SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Sideway
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: Markets would be driven today mostly by macroeconomic data releases. In focus ECB Interest rate decision at 11:45 GMT. From the technical side, deviation from its average parameters is low several days in a row and we expect to see volatility increase ahead. Main scenario: Next resistance level for today locates at 1.2955 (R1). Rise above it might lead to the further trend development with next possible targets at 1.2987 (R2) and 1.3018 (R3). Alternative scenario: Downside direction is limited by next support level at 1.2895 (S1), price decrease below it would be targeting next supports at 1.2863 (S2) and 1.2829 (S3).

-------------------
GBPUSD : 1.60970 / 1.60977
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



1.6198 | 1.6161 | 1.6127
1.6067 | 1.6034 | 1.6000

SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: Instrument continued its weakening on the hourly chart and our indicators clearly state downtrend formation on the short term perspective however in such situation market focus on Bank of England Rate Decision at 11:00 GMT. Main scenario: Price might retest our support at 1.6067 (S1) on the downside. Break here would suggest next target at 1.6034 (S2) and any further fall would then be targeting to 1.6000 (S3). Alternative scenario: Our next resistance stay at 1.6127 (R1), break here is required for market expansion towards to next targets at 1.6161 (R2) and 1.6198 (R3).

---------------
USDJPY : 78.616 / 78.618
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



79.04 | 78.87 | 78.71
78.42 | 78.25 | 78.07

SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Upward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: Technically, USDJPY in uptrend formation and both moving averages acts now as dynamic support level. Fresh high, formed today is our key level for the further uptrend development. Main scenario: Next resistance ahead at 78.71 (R1), break here is required to open way for further appreciation towards to targets at 78.87 (R2) and 79.04 (R3). Alternative scenario: Price decline below the next support levels at 78.42 (S1) might trigger bearish pressure and enable next target at 78.25 (S2). A break below it would suggest last target for today at 78.07 (S3).

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Calculator | ECN Forex Training | Forex Demo Account | FXCC )

[alayoua]

Market Overview by FXCC Oct 05 2012

ECB waits for Spain to act; bailout to come over the next month - Standard Chartered

The ECB looks set to keep rates on hold in November too, according to Standard Chartered European Economists Sarah Hewin and Thomas Costerg, while expecting recession "will trigger a cut by year-end" they note. Details on the new bond-buying plan remain thin, "but the ECB is likely to be tough on conditionality" the bank suspects. As per the timing abou the Spanish bailout, Standard Chartered thinks "they will need to ask for support over the next month, despite German reluctance."

"The ECB left its Refi rate unchanged in line with expectations, although market reaction does suggest there were at least some hopes for a rate cut today", says Vassili Serebriakov, Currency Strategist, Wells Fargo Bank. "With the ECB decision out of the way, markets will be looking ahead to US September nonfarm payrolls report", he says. "Judging from recent US data, the jobs numbers should not be particularly weak, which in our view could play into further gains in risk-sensitive commodity and emerging currencies".
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/05102012/

UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-10-05 07:00 GMT | Switzerland. Foreign Currency Reserves
2012-10-05 10:00 GMT | Germany. Factory Orders senectus
2012-10-05 12:30 GMT | United States. Nonfarm Payrolls
2012-10-05 19:00 GMT | United States. Consumer Credit Change

FOREX NEWS :
2012-10-05 05:02 GMT | EUR/USD bulls regain upper-hand ahead of NFP fireworks
2012-10-05 03:40 GMT | USD/JPY drops to session lows post-BoJ
2012-10-05 03:14 GMT | BoJ Interest Rate Decision stays unchanged at 0.1%
2012-10-05 02:07 GMT | EUR/AUD stalling below 1.2720


EURUSD : 1.30154 / 1.30158
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



1.3098 | 1.3065 | 1.3032
1.2998 | 1.2962 | 1.2926

SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Upward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: Bullish market sentiment remains in power today after the appreciation provided yesterday. United States Nonfarm Payrolls would be the main macroeconomic data release at 12:30 GMT. Main scenario: Brake above the resistance at 1.3032 (R1) would suggest next target at 1.3065 (R2) and any further gain would then be limited to 1.3098 (R3). Alternative scenario: Break below the support at 1.2998 (S1) might provide necessary space for retracement development. We suggest next target at 1.2962 (S2) and 1.2926 (S3) in potential.

----------------
GBPUSD : 1.61941 / 1.61945
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



1.6289 | 1.6246 | 1.6204
1.6165 | 1.6123 | 1.6079

SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Upward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: At the moment GBPUSD deviate from its up-trend formation and such stabilization might extend its power to the London session ahead. Stochastic Oscillator is pointing up and both moving averages are bullish, so far we expect further strengthening as main scenario later on today. Main scenario: Next resistance is maintained at 1.6204 (R1), break here might open space for a move to test targets at 1.6246 (R2) and 1.6289 (R3) in potential. Alternative scenario: Decrease below the support at 1.6165 (S1) might expose next targets at 1.6123 (S2) and 1.6079 (S3).

----------------
USDJPY : 78.391 / 78.395
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



79.04 | 78.80 | 78.58
78.25 | 78.02 | 77.79

SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Upward penetration
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: Market trapped to the range trading mode after the yesterday gains. Medium term bias is positive and we expect to see retest of yesterday high today. However if the market depreciate below the support level we expect a correction development. Main scenario: Next resistance level lie at 78.58 (R1). Break here is required to enable targets at 78.80 (R2) and 79.04 (R3). Alternative scenario: Risk of price depreciation is seen below the next support level at 78.25 (S1). Price progress below it might expose next targets at 78.02 (S2) and 77.79 (S3) in perspective.

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Blog | Forex Market Hours | ECN Automated Forex Trading] | FXCC )

[alayoua]

Market Overview by FXCC Oct 08 2012 HSBC Services PMI at 54.3 signals improvement According to Markit Economics, the HSBC Composite PMI (covering manufacturing and services PMI) signaled a renewed expansion in business activity at 54.3 in September, up from 52.0; below 50.0 signals contraction, while above signals industry expansion. Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC said:“Service sector growth picked up in September thanks to rising new business flows. This is likely an indication of a gradual improvement of domestic economic conditions due to the earlier easing measures and the stronger consumption demand in the run-up to the Golden week holiday.” Read More https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/08102012/ UPCOMING EVENTS : 2012-10-08 07:15 GMT | Switzerland. Consumer Price Index 2012-10-08 10:00 GMT | Germany. Industrial Production 2012-10-08 21:45 GMT | New Zealand. Electronic Card Retail Sales 2012-10-08 23:45 GMT | Japan. Trade Balance - BOP Basis FOREX NEWS : 2012-10-08 04:44 GMT | EUR/USD weekly start below 1.30 2012-10-08 03:52 GMT | AUD/JPY again below 80 round 2012-10-08 03:25 GMT | EUR/JPY dive stalls around 102 round 2012-10-08 01:22 GMT | USD/JPY limited below 100 DMA ------------------- EURUSD : 1.29880 / 1.29885 DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY 1.3070 | 1.3042 | 1.3013 1.2968 | 1.2942 | 1.2915 SUMMARY : Up TREND : Upward penetration MA10 : Bearish MA20 : Bearish STOCHASTIC : Oversold MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis Technical Summary: Currently EURUSD trades on the negative side and we expect further consolidation development later on today as main scenario. However medium term tendency remains positive. Main scenario: Next upcoming support holds at 1.2968 (S1), break through here might take the pair towards to eventual targets located at 1.2942 (S2) and 1.2915 (S3) in potential. Alternative scenario: Price level at 1.3013 (R1) is a next attractive point for the uptrend penetration. If a break occur here we suggest gradual targets to be placed at 1.3042 (R2) and 1.3070 (R3). ------------------- GBPUSD : 1.61085 / 1.61089 DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY 1.6174 | 1.6153 | 1.6131 1.6094 | 1.6075 | 1.6053 SUMMARY : Up TREND : Downward penetration MA10 : Bearish MA20 : Bearish STOCHASTIC : Oversold MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis Technical Summary: Instrument has settled negative bias on the hourly timeframe. We expect gradual decline towards to our support levels as main scenario today. Main scenario: If the market manage to brake next support level at 1.6094 (S1), we might exposure of possible targets at 1.6075 (S2) and 1.6053 (S3) later on today. Alternative scenario: Next resistance ahead is seen at 1.6131 (R1). Rising up above this level would suggest next targets at 1.6153 (R2) and 1.6174 (R3) in potential -------------------- USDJPY : 78.538 / 78.541 DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY 78.96 | 78.81 | 78.64 78.42 | 78.26 | 78.10 SUMMARY : Up TREND : Sideway MA10 : Bearish MA20 : Bullish STOCHASTIC : Oversold MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis Technical Summary: We are not expecting significant volatility increase today and current range mode condition might extend its power for the remaining of the day. Main scenario: Measures of resistance might be activating when the pair approaches the 78.64 (R1), break here would suggest next target at 78.81 (R2). If the price holds its momentum on the upside we can expect a further rise towards to 78.96 (R3). Alternative scenario: Our next support level stay at 78.42 (S1). Loss here might drive market price towards to next targets at 78.26 (S2) and 78.10 (S3) in perspective. Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Strategy | ECN Forex Trading Systems | Forex Exchange Rates | FXCC )

[alayoua]

Market Overview by FXCC Oct 09 2012

IMF cuts global GDPs forecast, dowside risks worsen

The IMF has lowered the euro zone GDP outlook for 2012 by -0.1% to -0.4% from -0.3%, while setting a +0.2% in 2013 from +0.7%. Progress toward banking, fiscal union is required for rosier revisions. ECB could cut rates further, the institution says. Japan 2012 growth forecast was also cut to 2.2% from 2.4%, 2013 stands now at 1.2% from 1.5%. The BOJ easing program may help its GDP target, although more is needed to reach 1% inflation goal. China 2012 growth forecast was downgraded to 7.8% from 8.0%, 2013 forecast at 8.2% from 8.5%. On the US front, IMF said “imperative” to avoid year-end fiscal cliff, as it could reduce 4% of GDP in 2013 in the worst case scenario. U.S., Canadian economies GDPs are projected at around 2% in 2012 and 2013, but both face large downside risks. Cuts 2012 global GDP growth forecast to 3.3% from 3.5% in July and 2013 forecast to 3.6% from 3.9%. “General feeling of uncertainty” holding back global growth.

The UK is the focus of the day ahead, "with the August snapshot of industrial- and manufacturing sector output on offer as well as foreign trade data for the same month" Rabobank notes. The bank adds: "A small fall in industrial output is expected but after a pretty strong July reading, the sector is tracking to grow output in 3Q as a whole." The NIESR, a UK Think Tank, will also release their estimate of 3Q GDP growth.
Read More
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/09102012/

UPCOMING EVENTS :
Tentative ECOFIN Meetings
2012-10-09 07:30 GMT | ECB President Draghi Speaks
2012-10-09 08:30 GMT | Manufacturing Production
2012-10-09 14:00 GMT | NIESR GDP Estimate

FOREX NEWS :
2012-10-09 05:00 GMT | GBP/USD consolidating ahead of UK data
2012-10-09 03:58 GMT | EUR/USD still below 1.30
2012-10-09 03:56 GMT | Will GBP/JPY’s sell-off extend?
2012-10-09 00:39 GMT | AUD/USD breaks Monday's high, descending trendline

----------------
EURUSD 1.29813 / 1.29817
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



1.3049 | 1.3024 | 1.2999
1.2968 | 1.2942 | 1.2917

SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Upward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: Yesterday pair gained momentum on the downside and close on the negative territory however medium term bias remains positive for EURUSD. Main scenario: Pair is moving towards to our next resistance level at 1.2999 (R1). Clearance here would suggest next targets at 1.3024 (R2) and 1.3049 (R3). Alternative scenario: The downside trend evolvement is limited by next support level at 1.2968 (S1), break here might lead to the targets execution at 1.2942 (S2) and 1.2917 (S3).

------------
GBPUSD 1.60419 / 1.60426
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



1.6127 | 1.6096 | 1.6066
1.6019 | 1.5990 | 1.5961

SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: Market sentiment is negative on GBPUSD as of yesterday sharp fall. We expect to see new lows formation today. Main scenario: Decline below the support level at 1.6019 (S1) would suggest next target at 1.5990 (S2) and any further easing would then be targeting 1.5961 (S3). Alternative scenario: If the price manages to stay above the suggested support at 1.6019 (S1), we expect attack to the resistance level at 1.6066 (R1). Clearance here is required for the instrument strengthening towards to our targets at 1.6096 (R2) and 1.6127 (R3) in potential.

-------------
USDJPY : 78.404 / 78.406
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



78.76 | 78.62 | 78.48
78.28 | 78.14 | 78.00

SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Upward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: USDJPY still is under the bullish pressure on the medium term perspective. Though, possibility of further market decline is high today. Main scenario: Next support level stays at 78.28 (S1). Break here would suggest next target at 78.14 (S2) and any further fall would then be limited by last support at 78.00 (S3). Alternative scenario: A medium-term bias is negative now though intraday bullish forces might be activated if the pair penetrates above the resistance level at 78.48 (R1). Next immediate resistance levels holds at 78.62 (R2) and 78.76 (R3).

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( ECN Forex Indicators | Learn Forex | Trade Forex | FXCC )

[alayoua]

Market Overview by FXCC Oct 12 2012

MAS surprises but still room to loosen policy - Capital Economics

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) left its policy stance unchanged today and it will continue to allow the NEER to trade within a target band of “modest and gradual appreciation”. The slope, mid-point and width of the target band will stay the same. The decision came despite stood at -1.5% q/q on an annualized basis in Q3.

A relatively quiet London session lies ahead, with no EZ sovereign debt auctions as usual on Fridays, and only minor EUR data related coming out, starting with French current account at 06:45 GMT, followed by the Netherlands trade balance at 07:30 GMT, Italy CPI at 08:00 GMT, and EU industrial production 1 hour later. The IMF-WB meetings will keep going throughout Sunday, with BoJ governor Shirakawa to speak at 12:20 GMT. Special attention might come from Spain, as the nation government holds its regularly weekly meeting, and markets expectations are growing on the country asking for the bailout after S&P downgraded Spain's credit ranking to one notch away from junk status.
Read More
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/12102012/


All. IMF Meeting
2012-10-12 09:00 GMT European Monetary Union. Industrial Production
2012-10-12 12:30 GMT United States. Producer Price Index
2012-10-12 13:55 GMT United States. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index


2012-10-12 04:42 GMT GBP/USD pressured ahead of Europe
2012-10-12 04:33 GMT EUR/USD clings to range game; time to salute 1.30 again?
2012-10-12 02:34 GMT AUD/JPY threatening offers near 80.80
2012-10-11 23:34 GMT USD/JPY gently bid; further advances ahead?

-------------
EURUSD 1.29291 / 1.29294
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



1.3009 1.2980 1.2951
1.2914 1.2885 1.2854

SUMMARY Up
TREND Upward penetration
MA10 Bullish
MA20 Bullish
STOCHASTIC Neutral


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: Medium term bias remains positive and today we expect further appreciation as main scenario. Main scenario: Strengthening above the resistance at 1.2951 (R1) might open way towards to next targets at 1.2980 (R2) and 1.3009 (R3). Alternative scenario: Next support can be found at 1.2914 (S1), clearance here would enable lower targets at 1.2885 (S2) and 1.2854 (S3).

----------------
GBPUSD 1.60289 / 1.60296
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



1.6109 1.6082 1.6057
1.6020 1.5993 1.5966

SUMMARY Up
TREND Upward penetration
MA10 Bearish
MA20 Bullish
STOCHASTIC Neutral


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: GBPUSD deviate from last week losses and current consolidation might extend its power above the suggested resistance levels today. Main scenario: Rise above the resistance at 1.6057 (R1) would suggest next target at 1.6082 (R2) and then final resistance can be found at 1.6109 (R3). Alternative scenario: Next support level holds at 1.6020 (S1), break here would suggest next target at 1.5993 (S2) and any further fall would then be limited to 1.5966 (S3).

-------------------
USDJPY 78.341 / 78.343
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



78.79 78.67 78.54
78.27 78.13 77.99

SUMMARY Up
TREND Upward penetration
MA10 Bullish
MA20 Bullish
STOCHASTIC Neutral


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: Fresh high provided today is our key point for further instrument appreciation however penetration below the suggested support level might enable bearish force on the short term perspective. Main scenario: Next resistance is placed at 78.54 (R1), break here might expose next target at 78.67 (R2) and any further rise would then be targeting 78.79 (R3). Alternative scenario: Our now bullish short term outlook will remain in place while USDJPY trades above the support at 78.27 (S1). A downside move below it might expose our next targets at 78.13 (S2) and 77.99 (S3) in potential.

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, (ECN Forex Trading | ECN Forex Broker | Forex Trading Accounts | FXCC)

[alayoua]

Market Overview by FXCC Oct 15 2012

Case for an RBNZ rate cut mounts - BNZ

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand may start to find it harder and harder to maintain its cash rate steady in the foreseeable future, according to BNZ economist Stephen Toplis. From Mr. Toplis: "A very weak PMI, followed by today’s weak PSI, intimates that Q3 GDP might print very poorly indeed. Consensus forecasts for global growth remain under pressure. The Australian economy is looking demonstrably shaky, resulting in grief for domestic manufacturers, and the RBA is easing. The NZD TWI sits stubbornly 1.4% above the RBNZ’s assumed Q4-average. And the annual CPI is about to print below the bottom edge of the RBNZ’s 1-3% target range. We, thus, now put the probability of an easing as high as 35%."

The BNZ Analyt adds: "We stick with our view that rates are on hold for some time to come but warn that the downside risk should not be ignored. The market is now pricing in around an 85% chance of a cut over the coming 12 months. It’s been pricing in a reduction in rates consistently for much of the last year and we have railed against it. While we think the odds are overdone, the situation has certainly changed sufficiently for us to be much less aggressive in our dissension. For us the catalyst for an easing will be continued appreciation in the NZD accompanied by a stalling in the domestic housing market."
Read More
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/15102012/


UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-10-15 12:30 GMT | United States. Retail Sales
2012-10-15 14:30 GMT | Canada. Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey
2012-10-15 19:00 GMT | Canada. BoC Governor Mark Carney Speech
2012-10-15 21:45 GMT | New Zealand. Consumer Price Index

FOREX NEWS :
2012-10-15 04:49 GMT | GBP/USD maintains bearish tendencies
2012-10-15 04:43 GMT | EUR/USD new week, same range
2012-10-15 04:14 GMT | AUD/NZD choppy below 1.2550
2012-10-15 03:13 GMT | EUR/JPY slide supported by trendline

----------------------
EURUSD : 1.29080 / 1.29085
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



1.2954 | 1.2937 | 1.2922
1.2890 | 1.2875 | 1.2860

SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Upward penetration
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: Today Instrument gained momentum on the negative side and formed correction from its initial uptrend formation. If it manages to break above the suggested resistance level we expect to see new step of uptrend development, otherwise depreciation below the support would lead to the deeper correction. Main scenario: Possible strengthening might arise above the next resistance level at 1.2922 (R1). Next targets holds at 1.2937 (R2) and 1.2954 (R3) levels. Alternative scenario: Downside development remains for now limited by next support level at 1.2890 (S1), clear break here would be a signal of market weakening, targeting 1.2875 (S2) and 1.2860 (S3) in potential.

----------------
GBPUSD : 1.60385 / 1.60394
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



1.6132 | 1.6096 | 1.6059
1.6024 | 1.5983 | 1.5944

SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: The medium term tendency is Bearish as both moving averages are pointing down and we expect that GBPUSD remains on the negative side today. Main scenario: Decrease below the expected support at 1.6024 (S1) might push price lower and enable our targets at 1.5983 (S2) and 1.5944 (S3). Alternative scenario: Upside formation is limited by next resistance level at 1.6059 (R1). If market manage to break it, further targets locates at 1.6096 (R2) and 1.6132 (R3).

----------------
USDJPY : 78.564 / 78.565
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



78.95 | 78.79 | 78.63
78.43 | 78.26 | 78.09

SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Sideway
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: Pair has settled positive bias on the hourly timeframe and fresh high, formed today is our reference point for the instrument appreciation. Main scenario: Our next resistance level for today stay at 78.63 (R1), break here would enable next targets at 78.79 (R2) and 78.95 (R3). Alternative scenario: Possible depreciation below the support level at 78.43 (S1) would suggest next targets at 78.26 (S2) and 78.09 (S3).

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( What Is Forex Trading | Forex Trading Signals | ECN Forex Trading Online | FXCC )

[alayoua]

Market Overview by FXCC Oct 17 2012

Moody’s confirms Spain’s government bond rating at Baa3, negative outlook

Moody’s issued the following statement in downgrading Spain’s sovereign credit rating outlook to negative: Moody’s Investors Service yesterday confirmed the Kingdom of Spain’s Baa3 government bond rating and assigned a negative outlook to the rating. In addition, Moody’s has confirmed Spain’s short-term rating at (P)Prime-3. Rating action concludes the review for possible further downgrade of Spain’s rating that Moody’s had initiated on 13 June 2012.

In summary, Moody’s believes that the combination of euro area and ECB support and the Spanish government’s own efforts should allow the government to maintain capital market access at reasonable rates, providing it with the time it needs to stabilise public debt over the next few years. In Moody’s view, the maintenance of market access is critical because the risk that some form of burden-sharing will be imposed on bondholders is material for those countries that rely entirely or to a very large extent on official-sector funding for an extended period of time.
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UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-10-16 08:30 GMT | United Kingdom. Bank of England Minutes
2012-10-16 09:00 GMT | Switzerland. ZEW Survey - Expectations
2012-10-16 09:15 GMT | United Kingdom. BOE Deputy Governor Paul Tucker speech
2012-10-16 12:30 GMT | United States. Housing Starts

FOREX NEWS :
2012-10-17 02:55 GMT | GBP/USD at key 61.8 fibo; awaits BoE minutes
2012-10-17 01:26 GMT | USD/JPY ranges ahead of 79.00 sellers
2012-10-17 00:26 GMT | AUD/USD follows Euro tail; 1.0330/35 next hurdle
2012-10-16 21:32 GMT | EUR/USD tests 1.3100 on Moddy's Spanish rating

-------------
EURUSD : 1.30944 / 1.30947
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



1.3199 | 1.3160 | 1.3125
1.3064 | 1.3027 | 1.2992

SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Overbought


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: Moody’s confirms Spain’s government bond rating at Baa3 with the negative outlook yesterday and that drives market price towards to new levels. Market sentiment is clearly bullish. Main scenario: In terms of technical levels next resistance level could be found at 1.3125 (R1). Appreciation above it might enable next targets at 1.3160 (R2) and 1.3199 (R3) in potential. Alternative scenario: Our next support level holds at 1.3064 (S1). Price penetration below it might open way towards to next targets at 1.3027 (S2) and 1.2992 (S3).

----------------
GBPUSD : 1.61262 / 1.61266
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



1.6192 | 1.6163 | 1.6135
1.6101 | 1.6074 | 1.6045

SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Upward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: Market is waiting for Bank of England Minutes at 08:30 GMT. Technically, further market rise is more likely scenario for today while both moving averages are pointing up. Main scenario: If the price manages to progress above the next resistance at 1.6133 (R1) we suggest next targets at 1.6154 (R2) and 1.6177 (R3) in potential. Alternative scenario: Next support level locates 1.6107 (S1) today, possible pushdown of the price below it would suggest next targets at 1.6085 (S2) and 1.6062 (S3).

-----------------
USDJPY : 78.632 / 78.636
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



79.03 | 78.91 | 78.78
78.61 | 78.50 | 78.38

SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Oversold


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: USDJPY still trades under the bullish pressure on the medium term perspective. Though, possibility of further market decline is high today as a part of correction development. Main scenario: We expect to see retest of our support at 78.61 (S1) today. Easing below it would suggest next targets at 78.50 (S2) and 78.38 (S3) in potential. Alternative scenario: Our next resistance level is placed at 78.78 (R1). Break above it might open initial targets at 78.91 (R2) and 79.03 (R3) in potential.

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Learn Forex Trading | ECN Forex Online Trading | Forex Trading Tips | FXCC )

[alayoua]

Market Overview by FXCC Oct 18 2012

China's Q3 GDP in line with estimates at 7.4%; Q3 print slightly better-than-expected

Chinese Real GDP for 3Q came as expected, printing 7.4% y/y growth - previously 7.6% y/y , hich had been the lowest reading since March 09. The Q3 seasonally adjusted number, however, came above expectations at 2.2% vs 1.8% consensus. While China's economy slows, data can be perceived as slightly better-than-expected, with QoQ numbers strengthening above cooling calls. Adds to signs China economy is bottoming. Ind Production came upbeat at 9.2% vs 9.0% exp, Fixed Investment better stood at 20.5% vs 20.2% expected, while retail sales were much better at 14.2 vs 13.2%.

Chinese Premier Wen noted that China's Q3 economic situation was 'relatively good' and that economic growth was stabilising. A better than expect GDP print will be positive for risk appetite, particularly given how far Chinese growth expectations have fallen over recent months. AUD, NZD and Asian currencies would push through recent highs on such an outcome.
Read More
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/18102012/

UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-10-18 08:30 GMT | United Kingdom. Retail Sales
2012-10-18 12:30 GMT | United States. Unemployment Claims
2012-10-18 14:00 GMT | United States. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey
2012-10-18 | Spanish 10-y Bond Auction

FOREX NEWS :
2012-10-18 04:39 | GMT EUR/AUD dip stalls at 1.26 as Asia turns ‘risk on’
2012-10-18 01:38 | GMT AUD/JPY staying bid above 82.00
2012-10-18 00:36 | GMT EUR/JPY consolidates at 4-wk highs
2012-10-17 23:14 | GMT USD/JPY surges above 79.00

-----------------
EURUSD : 1.30964 / 1.30969
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



1.3199 | 1.3163 | 1.3125
1.3064 | 1.3027 | 1.2992

SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Oversold


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: The pull back from yesterday’s high might be considered as price retracement from major uptrend formation. Pair is quoting roughly -0.17 % below its opening price and our short term outlook is negative today. Main scenario: Current downside formation is limited by next support level at 1.3064 (S1). Break here is required for further depreciation towards to our targets at 1.3027 (S2) and 1.2992 (S3) in potential. Alternative scenario: We see potential for further appreciation towards to next targets at 1.3163 (R2) and 1.3199 (R3) if it manage to overcome our next resistance level at 1.3125 (R1).

--------------
GBPUSD : 1.61294 / 1.61303
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



1.6172 | 1.6157 | 1.6142
1.6114 | 1.6099 | 1.6083

SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC: Neutral


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: GBPUSD tested negative side today and we are not expecting major changes in current tendency. Not many macroeconomic data releases expected today however UK Retail Sales announcement at 08:30 GMT might bring additional volatility. Main scenario: Next support could be found at 1.6114 (S1), clearance here is required to attack lower targets at 1.6099 (S2) and 1.6083 (S3). Alternative scenario: If the pair can breach our next resistance at 1.6142 (R1), we suggest next target at 1.6157 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited by last resistance at 1.6172 (R3) intraday.

------------------
USDJPY : 79.161 / 79.164
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



79.43 | 79.32 | 79.20
79.08 | 78.97 | 78.86

SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: The pair is under the bullish pressure, as both of our Moving Averages are aggressive towards the price trading above it. Fresh high, formed today is our next reference point for further market appreciation. Main scenario: Key resistance is seen at 79.20 (R1). Clearance here would suggest next targets at 79.32 (R2) and 79.43 (R3). Alternative scenario: The downside trend evolvement is limited by next support level at 79.08 (S1), break here might lead to the targets execution at 78.97 (S2) and 78.86 (S3).

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Trading Course | Forex Trading Blog | ECN Forex Trading Training | FXCC )

[alayoua]

Market Overview by FXCC Oct 19 2012

Framework for banking union by end of 2012

European Union leaders, according reports from Reuters, have agreed on a legal roadmap to establish a single bank supervisor for the union. A text of draft conclusions on the first day of talks in the ongoing EU summit in Brussels said leaders struck a deal on "the objective of completing the legal framework by the end of the year" with implementation "in the course of 2013", Reuters said. EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn commented, cited by Reuters, that reaching such deal is key "to break the vicious circle between sovereigns and banks". Framework for banking union by end of 2012, completion by early 2014, and is to cover 6,000 banks, according to a French official.

They added that potential for direct bank recapitalization from bailout funds in 2013. However, the German counterparts have denied that bank recapitalization can take place in early 2013. From German government source cited by Reuters: "Direct recapitalization of banks in first qtr of 2013 is ‘very unlikely’. Can only begin once an effective single banking supervisor is in place. ECB will be responsible for systemically important banks, but will oversee other banks if necessary. There will be a mix of supervision between ECB and national supervisors." Frictions between Germany and France on how to go about the banking supervisor authority had been a troubling sticking point, with German Chancellor Angela Merkel demanding stronger authority to veto national budgets that breach EU rules, while French President Francois Hollande had been more supportive of moving towards a European banking union.
Read More
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/19102012/


UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-10-19 06:00 GMT | Germany. Producer Price Index
2012-10-19 12:30 GMT | Canada. Consumer Price Index
2012-10-19 14:00 GMT | United States. Existing Home Sales Change
2012-10-19 N/A | E.M.U. European Council meeting

FOREX NEWS :
2012-10-19 02:57 GMT | GBP/JPY bears still defending 128.00 fig.
2012-10-19 01:54 GMT | GBP/USD bearish while below 1.6065
2012-10-19 00:30 GMT | AUD/USD has double failure above 1.04
2012-10-19 00:17 GMT | USD/JPY maintains positive bias, resistance at 79.65

-------------
EURUSD : 1.30715 / 1.30719
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



1.3133 | 1.3107 | 1.3084
1.3055 | 1.3031 | 1.3007

SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: Both moving averages are pointing down and we see potential of further depreciation later on today as main scenario though medium term tone remains positive. Main scenario: Next attractive support level locates at 1.3055 (S1). Break here is required to put in focus lower target at 1.3031 (S2) and 1.3007 (S3). Alternative scenario: Appreciation above the resistance level at 1.3084 (R1) would suggest higher targets at 1.3107 (R2) and 1.3133 (R3).

-------------------
GBPUSD : 1.60617 / 1.60625
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



1.6112 | 1.6091 | 1.6072
1.6041 | 1.6021 | 1.6001

SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: Yesterday market depreciation has determined negative market sentiment for the trading session ahead.Main scenario: Downtrend resuming is possible below the next support level at 1.6041 (S1). Clearance of this level might expose next targets at 1.6021 (S2) and 1.6001 (S3) during the day. Alternative scenario: Next resistance level holds at 1.6072 (R1), break here would suggest next targets at 1.6091 (R2) and 1.6112 (R3) in potential.

----------------
USDJPY : 79.299 / 79.303
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



79.66 | 79.53 | 79.41
79.25 | 79.13 | 79.00

SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: Upside formation remains in power on the medium term perspective however market looks overbought on the hourly chart and today we expect an attack to our support levels. Main scenario: Bearish penetration below the support level at 79.25 (S1) would then targeting 79.13 (S2) and 79.00 (S3) intraday. Alternative scenario: Appreciation above the next resistance level at 79.41 (R1) would suggest next targets at 79.53 (R2) and 79.66 (R3) in perspective.

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Trading Hours | Forex Trading Strategy | ECN Forex Trading Tutorial | FXCC )

[alayoua]

Market Overview by FXCC Oct 22 2012

Rajoy gets landslide victory in Galicia

El PaÍs reported a landslide victory by Rajoy in Galicia. In Europe, things seem to be progressing. Reuters is reporting that the Troika deal is 90% complete, according to the Greek Finance Minister, and that the Greek Prime Minister expects his nation to receive the next tranche of loans by the end of November; the November timeline is key, given that Greece will reportedly run out of adequate reserves by the 16th of that month.

Elsewhere in the region, eyes are on Spain as the Spanish province of Galicia becomes a focus for global investors, with a key election underway today; Mariano Rajoy's ruling People's Party is in the lead according to early exit polls. Economists continue to expect that Spain will do what is needed to secure ECB help in November, and a bailout would certainly help to soothe persistent fears about the breakup of the European Union.
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https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/22102012/

UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-10-22 06:00 GMT | United Kingdom. Nationwide Housing Prices
2012-10-22 07:00 GMT | Switzerland. Monthly Statistical Bulletin
2012-10-22 07:00 GMT | Australia. RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speech

FOREX NEWS :
2012-10-22 04:15 GMT | EUR/AUD consolidation a continuation pattern?
2012-10-22 01:51 GMT | EUR/JPY, post '4-yr trendline' era; 104.00 still tough
2012-10-22 00:19 GMT | AUD/USD tests bids through 1.3000

--------------
EURUSD : 1.30560 / 1.30565
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



1.3111 | 1.3089 | 1.3066
1.3031 | 1.3007 | 1.2983

SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Upward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Overbought


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: Technically, EURUSD is under the uptrend formation on the medium term perspective and appreciation above the expected resistance levels might open road towards to new targets. Main scenario: Our next resistance level could be found at 1.3066 (R1). Appreciation above it might enable next targets at 1.3089 (R2) and 1.3111(R3) in potential. Alternative scenario: We expect to see retest of our support at 1.3031 (S1) today. Easing below it would suggest next targets at 1.3007 (S2) and 1.2983 (S3) in potential.

------------------
GBPUSD : 1.60303 / 1.60311
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



1.6089 | 1.6068 | 1.6046
1.6011 | 1.5989 | 1.5965

SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Down trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Overbought


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: GBPUSD aimed to recover previous day’s losses by trading most of the time on the positive side today. We expect further appreciation towards to our resistance levels today however medium term bias remains negative. Main scenario: If the pair manages to overcome our next resistance level at 1.6046(R1), we expect further progress towards to new targets at 1.6068 (R2) and 1.6089 (R3) in potential. Alternative scenario: Next support level locates at 1.6011 (S1). Decline below it might resume weakness towards to 1.5989 (S2). Selling pressure might face final support at 1.5965 (S3) intraday.

----------------
USDJPY : 79.619 / 79.621
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



79.93 | 79.82 | 79.66
79.46 | 79.30 | 79.13

SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Overbought


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: USDJPY gained momentum on the positive side today and our main scenario is bullish on the short term perspective, though further market decline is possible later on today. Main scenario: Climb above the resistance level at 79.66 (R1) might open way for the price appreciation towards to the target at 79.82 (R2). Last target for today locates at 79.93 (R3). Alternative scenario: If the price manage to stabilize on current levels and clearly brake our next support level at 79.46 (S1) we expect correction development with next targets at 79.30 (S2) and 79.13 (S3).

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, (ECN Forex Broker | ECN Forex Trading Platform | Foreign Currency Exchange | Best Currency Online Trading | FXCC)

[alayoua]

Market Overview by FXCC Oct 23 2012

Spain is now where Greece was three years ago.

Steen Jakobsen, Chief Investment Officer at Saxo Bank, on an attempt to emphasize the dire financial picture in Spain, and what may come further down the road, notes Spain is now where Greece was three years ago. Mr. Jakobsen notes: "Spain is facing negative fiscal multipliers as any move toward austerity will aggravate the negative economic spiral. Even the IMF has now admitted that fiscal multipliers are far higher than previously assumed (0.9 to 1.7 vs. previous 0.5), meaning the end is not near to this crisis. The problem for Spain is the same as for Greece: a mandate for change forced on the population by unelected and non-accountable officials in offices in Brussels or Frankfurt is never going to last for long. "

Moody's Investors Service announced downgrades by one or two notches the ratings in five Spanish regions, including Andalucia, Extremadura, Castilla-La Mancha, Catalunya, and Murcia. In the statement, Moody's also confirms the ratings of the Basque Country and the Diputacion Foral de Bizkaia at Baa2. In addition, the ratings of the regions of Madrid, Castilla y Leon and Galicia have also been confirmed at Baa3. The ratings of Valencia were also confirmed at B1.
Read More
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/23102012/

UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-10-23 12:30 GMT | Canada. Retail Sales
2012-10-23 13:00 GMT | Canada. BoC Interest Rate Decision
2012-10-23 14:00 GMT | E.M.U. Consumer Confidence
2012-10-23 17:00 GMT | United Kingdom. BoE's Governor King Speech

FOREX NEWS :
2012-10-23 04:50 GMT | GBP/USD flat above 1.6000, bearish below 1.5970
2012-10-23 02:52 GMT | EUR/AUD set for breakout, but in which direction?
2012-10-22 23:52 GMT | USD/JPY threatening 80.00
2012-10-22 21:26 GMT | EUR/JPY surges toward 61.8% Fibo resistance

----------------------
EURUSD : 1.30580 / 1.30583
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



1.3099 1.3087 1.3075
1.3048 1.3037 1.3025

SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Oversold


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: Instrument tested negative side today and we see possibility of further market decline later on today. Main scenario: A short-term neutral bias might face immediate support at 1.3048 (S1). Lower targets are placed at 1.3037 (S2) and 1.3025 (S3) in case of successful penetration here. Alternative scenario: Next resistance is placed above the fresh high at 1.3075 (R1), a break above it would extend gains towards to next targets at 1.3087 (R2) and 1.3099 (R3).

-----------------
GBPUSD : 1.60146 / 1.60154
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



1.6052 1.6038 1.6024
1.6006 1.5992 1.5977

SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Downward penetration
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: Both moving averages now are pointing down and we expect further easing today below the expected support levels. Main tendency on the medium term remains negative. Main scenario: Downside direction is limited by next support level at 1.6006 (S1), price decrease below it would be targeting next supports at 1.5992 (S2) and 1.5977 (S3). Alternative scenario: Our next resistance locates at 1.6024 (R1). Successful attack here would put in focus next target at 1.6038 (R2) and any further rise would then be targeting to 1.6052 (R3).

----------------
USDJPY : 79.909 / 79.913
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



80.31 80.15 80.01
79.78 79.64 79.49

SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bullish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: Positive tendency remains in power today however in near future we expect to see some consolidation and possibly pull back from its initial price increase. Main scenario: Our next resistance stay at 80.01 (R1), break here is required for market expansion towards to next targets at 80.15 (R2) and 80.31 (R3). Alternative scenario: If the marked decline below the support at 79.78 (S1), we expect price downgrade towards to our targets at 79.64 (S2) and 79.49 (S3) as a part of consolidation.

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Trading Basics | ECN Forex Trading Education | Best Forex Trading Platform )

[alayoua]

Market Overview by FXCC Oct 24 2012

Euro searching for catalyst strong enough to break its range, FOMC eyed

Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve's policy setting committee began a two-day meeting, with a policy statement to be released Wednesday.According to Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy at BBH, given the proximity of the election and the fact that an open-ended asset purchase plan was announced last month (QE3 or QE+), there will be a great deal more talk than action at the FOMC meeting.

"There are two issues that market expects the Fed to discuss. The first may fall under communication, but is really more substantive", says BBH. "Currently the Fed uses a calendar date approach, now mid-2015 to guide expectations of the minimum amount of time the Fed will keep interest rates low. There has been some talk…that perhaps the Fed should provide numerical targets". The second issue addresses the amount of securities the Fed is purchasing, says BBH analyst. "The question here is whether the Fed should roll the $45 bln a month in Treasuries it is buying under Operation Twist (and selling short-end holdings) and roll them into QE3+", he explains. "This would mean buying $85 bln a month in MBS and Treasuries a month".
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/24102012/

UPCOMING EVENTS :
2012-10-24 14:00 GMT | United States. New Home Sales
2012-10-24 15:15 GMT | Canada. BoC Press Conference
2012-10-24 18:15 GMT | United States. Fed's Monetary Policy Statement and press conference
2012-10-24 | European Monetary Union. ECB President Mario Draghi Visits Germany

FOREX NEWS :
2012-10-24 05:02 GMT | EUR/USD looking ahead to EZ PMI, FOMC
2012-10-24 00:43 GMT | AUD/USD spike hits 1.0300 post-AU CPI
2012-10-23 23:23 GMT | Buy dips on gold towards a $1775 target - Nomura
2012-10-23 21:24 GMT | AUD/JPY bears protecting 82.70


EURUSD : 1.29865 / 1.29869
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



1.3037 | 1.3013 | 1.2994
1.2971 | 1.2951 | 1.2930

SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Down trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: Plenty of macroeconomic data releases ahead. Today in focus ECB President Mario Draghi speech at 14:00 GMT and Fed's Monetary Policy Statement and press conference at 18:15 GMT. Technically, instrument extended its weakening and determined negative bias on the medium term perspective. Main scenario: Risk of further depreciation is seen below the next support level at 1.2971 (S1). Clearance here might put selling pressure to the pair and enable next targets at 1.2951 (S2) and 1.2930 (S3). Alternative scenario: Our next resistance level is placed above the fresh high, provided today at 1.2994 (R1). Strengthening above it would suggest higher targets at 1.3013(R2) and 1.3037 (R3).

--------------
GBPUSD : 1.59487 / 1.59488
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



1.5993 | 1.5975 | 1.5956
1.5931 | 1.5913 | 1.5894

SUMMARY : Down
TREND : Down trend
MA10 : Bearish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: Technically, picture is negative for GBPUSD. We expect gradual market decline later on today however possibility of consolidation development is seen above our resistance levels. Main scenario: Next support level in focus at 1.5931 (S1), if it manages to break our support here we suggest next targets at 1.5913 (S2) and 1.5894 (S3). Alternative scenario: Successful attack to the next resistance level at 1.5956 (R1) might establish retracement formation with next targets at 1.5975 (R2) and 1.5993 (R3) in focus.

----------------
USDJPY : 79.807 / 79.809
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY



80.22 | 80.08 | 79.94
79.78 | 79.64 | 79.49

SUMMARY : Up
TREND : Up trend
MA10 : Bullish
MA20 : Bearish
STOCHASTIC : Neutral


MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: Yesterday USDJPY continued its consolidation and now is settled for a move. We expect retest of our resistance level today. If it fails to establish positive bias likely we will see a correction development on the hourly timeframe. Main scenario: Next resistance at 79.94 (R1) comes ahead. The break here is required for the price appreciation towards to next target at 80.08 (R2) and any further rise would then be targeting to 80.22 (R3). Alternative scenario: Downside fluctuations remains for now limited by next support level at 79.78 (S1), only clear break here would be a signal of market easing, targeting 79.64 (S2) and 79.49 (S3) in potential.

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Best Forex Trading System | Forex Trading Platforms | Automated Forex Trading Software | FXCC )