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Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 01 2013

It's official, the US sequestration kicks in

The sequestration, for those unfamiliar with the term, is defined by the US Federal Budget as "the practice of using mandatory spending cuts in the federal budget if the cost of running the government exceeds either an arbitrary amount or the the gross revenue it brings during the fiscal year." These automatic federal budget cuts are officially kicking in within as we write these lines, after a final bill presented by Democrats and Republicans in the Senate failed to win enough support. What this means is that the US will now go through an across-the-board spending cuts in the face of annual budget deficits, which are thought to amount over $85 billion in the current fiscal year. "Assuming that every dollar cut in spending reduces GDP by a dollar, the sequester will shave US growth by around 0.5% this year" comments Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy at BBH.

Marc adds: "The sequester itself is a bit of a farce in the sense that it was never intended to be enacted. It was purposely designed to be absurd to give the political class incentive to find an alternative." The analyst suspects that what is behind the 'sequester' is the fact that main political players did their calculations concluding is the best worst alternative. Obama crossed the wires later Thursday, saying that "tomorrow I will bring together leaders from both parties to discuss a path forward; as a nation, we can’t keep lurching from one manufactured crisis to another. Middle-class families can’t keep paying the price for dysfunction in Washington.” Kathy Lien, co-founder at BK Asset Management, notes: "We've been down this road before with the debt ceiling and survived." But as Kathy adds, here comes the kicker: "The Obama Administration has another 30 days to come up with a deal to cancel and avoid the cuts. The more important deadline is March 27th, when the government runs out of money and will be forced to shutdown if no additional measures are taken." Investors are holding out hope for a last minute deal, Kathy says.
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Forex Economic Calendar
2013-03-01 09:28 GMT | United Kingdom. Markit Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
2013-03-01 13:30 GMT | United States. Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Prices Index (YoY) (Jan)
2013-03-01 13:30 GMT | Canada. Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Dec)
2013-03-01 13:58 GMT | United States. Markit Manufacturing PMI (Feb)

Forex News
2013-03-01 05:57 GMT | GBP/USD above 1.5150; slows down avrg vol
2013-03-01 05:34 GMT | EUR/USD continues sequestered by sellers
2013-03-01 03:50 GMT | Gold below $1590 as 'sequester' looms
2013-03-01 02:55 GMT | AUD/USD little moved around 1.0220


EURUSD :
HIGH 1.30836 LOW 1.30532 BID 1.30775 ASK 1.30783 CHANGE 0.17% TIME 08 : 02:53



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Price get momentum on the downside yesterday however we see potential to overcome our next resistance level at 1.3094 (R1). Clearance here might pull the pair towards to eventual targets at 1.3121 (R2) and 1.3146 (R3). Downwards scenario: Near term outlook is negative for the EURUSD as the price setup is taken a form of a downside formation. Expected progress below the initial support level at 1.3051 (S1) might expose intraday targets at 1.3024 (S2) and then 1.2996 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3094, 1.3121, 1.3146
Support Levels: 1.3051, 1.3024, 1.2996

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GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.51824 LOW 1.51513 BID 1.51811 ASK 1.51824 CHANGE 0.12% TIME 08 : 02:54



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Sideways formation remains in power today. Next on tap is resistance level at 1.5198 (R1). Clearance here might open a route towards to our initial target at 1.5227 (R2) and then further price appreciation would be limited to last resistance at 1.5258 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, yesterday lows at 1.5148 (S1) offers an important technical level. Clearance here is required to keep the downside extension intact and expose our lower targets at 1.5118 (S2) and 1.5086 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5198, 1.5227, 1.5258
Support Levels: 1.5148, 1.5118, 1.5086

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USDJPY :
HIGH 92.731 LOW 92.466 BID 92.536 ASK 92.541 CHANGE -0.03% TIME 08 : 02:55



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Ascending uptrend formation remains in power today. Next resistance is seen at 92.73 (R1). If the pair manages to successfully climb above it, we expect next targets to be exposed at 92.97 (R2) and 93.20 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other side, price depreciation below the supportive barrier at 92.45 (S1) might provide sufficient space for the recovery action. In such case e we would suggest next intraday targets at 92.23 (R2) and then 92.01 (R3).

Resistance Levels: 92.73, 92.97, 93.20
Support Levels: 92.45, 92.23, 92.01


Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( ECN Exchange Market FX Brokers | Automated Forex Trading System | FXCC )

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 06 2013

Keep an eye on the oil market after Chavez's death

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Following the breaking news of Venezuela's president Hugo Chavez death, which has no direct impact on the currency market, traders should, nevertheless, keep an eye on the Oil market, as it may produce some volatility. Venezuelan Vice President Mr. Maduro is expected to win the elections and become Chavez's successor. There was some incendiary comments from Maduro after the announcement of Chavez's death, which Reuters reports: ”We have no doubt that commander Chavez was attacked with this illness,” Maduro said, repeating a charge first made by Chavez himself that the cancer was an attack by “imperialist” foes in the United States in league with domestic enemies.

"This report should be bullish for oil" says Eamonn Sheridan, editor at Forexlive. At the time of writing, US Oil futures are quoted at 90.83 after sharp fall off a double top from early February in the 98.00 vicinity. Venezuela enjoys the world's largest oil reserves and the oil-related bonds being traded are of enormous size, suggesting that the oil community may go through a phase of hyper-sensitivity on any indications of political unrest in the country. As Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXstreet.com notes: "Although the news has little to do right now with the forex market, Venezuela is an oil producer, and therefore, we may see some wild action in oil and that could affect forex market." She tips to keep an eye on this and its correlation with oil, "particularly at the European and the US opening" she said.
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Forex Economic Calendar :
2013-03-06 09:45 GMT | United Kingdom. BoE's Governor King Speech
2013-03-06 10:00 GMT | E.M.U. Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (Q4)
2013-03-06 15:00 GMT | Canada. BoC Interest Rate Decision (Mar 6)
2013-03-06 19:00 GMT | United States. Fed's Beige Book

Forex News :
2013-03-06 01:18 GMT | USD/JPY pressing against 93.00
2013-03-06 00:45 GMT | AUD/USD above 1.0280 after Aus GDP
2013-03-06 00:19 GMT | EUR/JPY still capped below 122.00
2013-03-05 22:50 GMT | AUD/JPY pushing against 6-day highs ahead of Aus GDP


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EURUSD :
HIGH 1.30704 LOW 1.30421 BID 1.30683 ASK 1.30688 CHANGE 0.14% TIME 08:06:51



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Local high, formed today at 1.3070 (R1) is the key point for further uptrend formation on the medium-term perspective. Break here is required to validate next upcoming targets at 1.3090 (R2) and 1.3113 (R3). Downwards scenario: Immediate risk of further market decline is seen below the key support level at 1.3045 (S1). Loss here might downgrade currency rate towards to the next supportive means at 1.3022 (S2) and 1.3000 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 1.3070, 1.3090, 1.3113
Support Levels: 1.3045, 1.3022, 1.3000

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GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.51543 LOW 1.51236 BID 1.51441 ASK 1.51451 CHANGE 0.12% TIME 08:06:52



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Market sentiment is slightly improved during the Asian session however further appreciation needs to clear barrier at 1.5154 (R1) to enable our interim target at 1.5175 (R2) and then further gains would be limited to resistance at 1.5197 (R3). Downwards scenario: The downside formation might face next supportive barrier at 1.5129 (S1). Clearance here is required to open the way towards to our initial support at 1.5108 (S2) and any further price regress would then be limited to final support and 1.5087 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5154, 1.5175, 1.5197
Support Levels: 1.5129, 1.5108, 1.5087


USDJPY :
HIGH 93.38 LOW 92.995 BID 93.186 ASK 93.192 CHANGE -0.1% TIME 08 : 06:53



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Instrument stabilized below the next resistance level at 93.29 (R1). Penetration above it might encourage orders execution and drive market price towards to the next resistive means at 93.51 (R2) and 93.72 (R3). Downwards scenario: An important technical level is seen at 92.99 (S1). Market decline below this level might initiate bearish pressure and drive market price towards to our initial targets at 92.78 (S2) and 92.56 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 93.29, 93.51, 93.72
Support Levels: 92.99, 92.78, 92.56

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Account | Best ECN Forex Brokers | Forex Trading Systems | FXCC )

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 07 2013

ECB moving closer to a cut; BoE eyeing additional QE

Economic data coming out of the Eurozone in recent months has been rather poor but even though the ECB has still limited room to cut rates, it is generally not expected to make this move at the upcoming meeting. The BoE´s monetary policy decision is the source of more speculation this month as the minutes from the last meeting revealed that three MCP members expressed their support for additional QE. Even though the majority of the analysts polled for the special forecast report expect the ECB to cut interest rates sometime this year, they rather do not see the central bank making this decision in March. "The markets are nervous about the recent elections results in Italy as well as about a possible QE decrease by the Fed so I do not think Mario would want to add fuel to the fire," Adam Narczewski suggests, while others point also to the successful announcement of the OMT as a factor reducing the need for a cut. Only Steve Ruffley sees the ECB bringing "rates to 0.5%, in line with that of the BOE" on March 7, as "the economic horizon for the EU remains very treacherous."

Attention will center on the ECB press conference following the interest rate announcement, during which president Mario Draghi might, in the opinion of Bill Hubard, "revise inflation projections to the downside." He is also likely to "try and balance between the current economic situation which is quite depressing, and the optimism for growth in H2 2013, coming now from higher business confidence, mostly in Germany," as Yohay Elam believes. The outcome of the BoE´s March monetary policy meeting is less clear for the experts as the minutes from the January meeting surprised with the information that three out of the nine MPC members (including the governor Mervyn King) voted in favor of an additional expansion of the asset purchase program by £25 billion to £400 billion. "The downgrade by Moody's, together with the growing support for more QE and the lack of fiscal stimulus from the government will likely lead the MPC to action, even though the effects of QE on the economy are questionable," Yohay Elam predicts, but the majority of the economists polled believe the expansion could be carried out later in the year.
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Forex Economic Calendar :
2013-03-07 12:00 GMT | United Kingdom. BoE Interest Rate Decision (Mar 7)
2013-03-07 12:45 GMT | E.M.U. ECB Interest Rate Decision (Mar 7)
2013-03-07 13:30 GMT | United States. Trade Balance (Jan)
2013-03-07 21:30 GMT | United States. Bank Stress Test Info

Forex News :
2013-03-07 05:51 GMT | GBP/JPY still in uptrend - JPMorgan
2013-03-07 05:17 GMT | BoJ holds steady; Cable prints fresh lows
2013-03-07 04:55 GMT | NZDUSD bearish potential intact - Saxo Bank
2013-03-07 03:44 GMT | USD/JPY slightly to the downside as no surprise from BoJ

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EURUSD :
HIGH 1.29963 LOW 1.29686 BID 1.29911 ASK 1.29916 CHANGE 0.2% TIME 07 : 57:45



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: An evidence of uptrend formation might be provided if the price manages to surpass key resistive structure at 1.3009 (R1). Price evaluation above this level would put in focus our higher targets at 1.3038 (R2) and 1.0388 (R3). Downwards scenario: Instrument is moving with a ranging momentum on a slightly shorter timeframe and might retest our next support level at 1.2965 (S1). Market decline below it might lead to the further easing towards to next targets at 1.2938 (S2) and 1.2910 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3070, 1.3090, 1.3113
Support Levels: 1.3045, 1.3022, 1.3000

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GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.50175 LOW 1.49669 BID 1.50019 ASK 1.50031 CHANGE -0.1% TIME 07 : 57:46



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Next actual resistance level is seen at 1.5043 (R1). If the market manages to surge higher, our focus would returned to the next target at 1.5075 (R2) and further uptrend formation could be exhausted at 1.5107 (R3) intraday. Downwards scenario: Technical indicators are bearish and if the price manages to break our next support level at 1.4968 (S1) we would expect further depreciation towards to our next targets, located at 1.4935 (S2) and 1.4904 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5043, 1.5075, 1.5107
Support Levels: 1.4968, 1.4935, 1.4904

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USDJPY :
HIGH 94.115 LOW 93.792 BID 93.926 ASK 93.932 CHANGE -0.15% TIME 07 : 57:47



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Consolidation pattern formation likely comes to the end and appreciation above the resistance at 94.13 (R1) might start of a new step of the ascending structure. Our intraday targets today are placed at 94.42 (R2) and 94.70 (R3). Downwards scenario: Local low formed today is pointing to a short-term key support at 93.77 (S1). Penetration below it might change near-term tone to the negative side and expose our initial targets at 93.47 (S2) and 93.19 (S3) later on today.

Resistance Levels: 94.13, 94.42, 94.70
Support Levels: 93.77, 93.47, 93.19

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Trading News | ECN Trading Account | Forex ECN Broker | FXCC )

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 08 2013

Fed's stress test: banks better prepared for downturn

Stress tests results in the US, conducted by the Fed as an exercise required under the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial overhaul, have shown that 17 out of 18 banks stress tested meet the minimum requirement of tier 1 capital above the 5% threshold, noting that banks could weather sharp downturn with adequate capital. FED said 18 banks projected losses may amount $462 billion under severe market shock, with the test assuming an equity drop of more than 50% and housing prices decreasing more than 20%. The only bank failing to comply with the 5% tier 1 capital was Ally. In summary, all bans combined showed they exceed regulatory minimums although there were wide gaps among them.

The February US jobs numbers are not expected to differ substantially from those registered in the recent months, although the market experts participating in the forecast report suggest that they will rather be somewhat lower. This time the range of predictions is relatively narrow: between 110K and 200K jobs added. Alexandra Estiot who sees the US labor market growing by 180-200K in February justifies her optimistic forecast by saying that "in late 2012, some signs of strengthening were already obvious, with non-farm private payrolls growing by more than 200k a month" and that "leading indicators are pointing to a strengthening of that trend, with employment components of ISM surveys at historical highs." She nevertheless warns about the effects of the automatic budget cuts which after being implemented might harm the labor market. Other analysts, who expect more modest jobs gains in the range of 130K-170K, are also worried about the impact of the sequester and some suspect that the steady growth trend might be coming to an end. Steve Ruffley points to a similar situation in the corresponding period of last year: "We have seen a steady decrease in 2013 from the NFP highs of 247K to last month’s figure of 157K; this mirrors the start of 2012 where the NFP went from 259K to 154K." Should the reading prove better than expected "it could cause short-term positive reaction in the stocks market," as Talal Abdullah suggests and adds that "the uptick in NFP should increase the appeal for the U.S. dollar, as it raises the outlook for growth." US NFP numbers for February will be released on March 8 at 13:30 GMT.-FXstreet.com
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Forex Economic Calendar :
N/A | United Kingdom. Consumer Inflation Expectations
2013-03-08 11:00 GMT | Germany. Industrial Production s.a. w.d.a. (YoY) (Jan)
2013-03-08 13:30 GMT | Canada. Unemployment Rate (Feb)
2013-03-08 13:30 GMT | United States. Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb)

Forex News :
2013-03-08 05:33 GMT | GBP/USD unable to hold above 1.5000
2013-03-08 05:20 GMT | Draghi rescues Euro from its $1.30 agony, can it last?
2013-03-08 03:26 GMT | NZD/USD pullsback to retest 0.8260
2013-03-08 02:38 GMT | USD/JPY prints yet another fresh high above 95.20


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EURUSD :
HIGH 1.31152 LOW 1.3087 BID 1.30958 ASK 1.30964 CHANGE -0.09% TIME 08 : 30:33



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Markets simply ignored all resistive measures yesterday and formed clear uptrend signal on the hourly chart timeframe. Currently resistive structure at 1.3118 (R1) prevents further gains. Only clearance here would open route towards to next targets at 1.3139 (R2) and 1.3159 (R3). Downwards scenario: Today we expect some consolidation ahead prior further volatility increase. Possibility of market decline is seen below the next support level at 1.3074 (S1) with next expected targets at 1.3053 (S2) and 1.3032 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3118, 1.3139, 1.3159
Support Levels: 1.3074, 1.3053, 1.3032

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GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.50263 LOW 1.49816 BID 1.49944 ASK 1.49951 CHANGE -0.12% TIME 08:30:35



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: On the upside market might get more incentives above the immediate resistive barrier at 1.5020 (R1). If the price manages to overcome it we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5050 (R2) and 1.5081 (R3). Downwards scenario: However the downside remains favored direction for today. The 1.4968 (S1) would be the key support level. Decline below it might take the pair towards to eventual targets, located at 1.4935 (S2) and 1.4904 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5020, 1.5050, 1.5081
Support Levels: 1.4968, 1.4935, 1.4904

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USDJPY :
HIGH 95.445 LOW 94.781 BID 95.287 ASK 95.291 CHANGE 0.49% TIME 08 : 30:36



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: USDJPY broke all resistive measure yesterday and currently stabilized near its high’s. Appreciation above the resistive barrier at 95.50 (R1) is compulsory to resume positive market structure and validate next intraday targets at 95.84 (R2) and 96.19 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, we still keep the downside extension in focus. Risk of further market depreciation is seen below the support level at 95.10 (S1). Loss here would enable initial targets at 94.75 (S2) and 94.37 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 95.50, 95.84, 96.19
Support Levels: 95.10, 94.75, 94.37

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, (ECN Forex Broker | ECN Forex Trading Platform | Foreign Currency Exchange | Best Currency Online Trading | FXCC)

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 11 2013

Fitch downgrades Italy to BBB+, outlook negative

Fitch Ratings decided to downgrade Italy's rating to 'BBB+' from 'A-', citing the inconclusive results of the Italian parliamentary elections and deeper recession as the main reasons. Fitch also kept negative outlook on the country, meaning Italy could see another downgrade. "The inconclusive results of the Italian parliamentary elections on 24-25 February make it unlikely that a stable new government can be formed in the next few weeks", said Fitch. "The increased political uncertainty and non-conducive backdrop for further structural reform measures constitute a further adverse shock to the real economy amidst the deep recession". Fitch also said that the ongoing recession in Italy is one of the deepest in Europe as confirmed by Q412 data.

Following what could be described as a 'remarkable' jobs number in the United States last Friday, with the jobless rate down to 7.7% and the economy creating 236K new jobs, highest since early 2012, the US Dollar continues to be one of the big winners in the currency market. Are the stars aligning for further Greenback strength? Before touching on the prospects for further USD appreciation, especially against the Euro, an interesting phenomenon not to ignore last Friday is the positive correlation between the US Dollar and the equity market, an occurrence which has seen commentators of the market busy speculating such behaviour as an early sign of improvement in market confidence.
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Forex Economic Calendar :
2013-03-11 07:00 GMT | Germany. Trade Balance s.a. (Jan)
2013-03-11 09:00 GMT | Italy. Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q4)
2013-03-11 21:00 GMT | New Zeland. REINZ House Price Index (MoM) (Feb)
2013-03-11 23:50 GMT | Japan. BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Forex News :
2013-03-11 05:46 GMT | EUR/USD, the 1.30 flirt goes on ...
2013-03-11 05:22 GMT | GBP/USD resting above 1.4900
2013-03-11 03:28 GMT | AUD/JPY holding above 98 on the back of Yen weakness
2013-03-11 01:15 GMT | EUR/JPY unchanged below 125.00

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EURUSD :
HIGH 1.3009 LOW 1.29792 BID 1.30027 ASK 1.30035 CHANGE 0.03% TIME 08:04:55



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Our medium-term outlook is negative for the EURUSD though possibility of price deviation is seen above the next resistance level at 1.3016 (R1). Retracement targets could be exposed at 1.3035 (R2) and 1.3054 (R3). Downwards scenario: Activation of bearish forces is possible below the support level at 1.2979 (S1). Clearance here would suggest next interim target at 1.2960 (S2) and if the price holds its momentum on the downside we would suggest final target for today at 1.2941 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3016, 1.3035, 1.3054
Support Levels: 1.2979, 1.2960, 1.2941

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GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.49273 LOW 1.49009 BID 1.49263 ASK 1.49274 CHANGE 0.07% TIME 08:04:55



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

Upwards scenario: Breaching of resistance at 1.4958 (R1) is required to provide an evidence of corrective action. Possible targets could be exposed at 1.4990 (R2) and 1.5022 (R3) later on today in such scenario. Downwards scenario: Fresh low formed today offers an important support level at 1.4899 (S1). Discounted value of GBPUSD might push through this mark and enable next visible target at 1.4866 (S2) en route to support at 1.4834 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.4958, 1.4990, 1.5022
Support Levels: 1.4899, 1.4866, 1.4834

----------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 96.256 LOW 95.94 BID 96.125 ASK 96.131 CHANGE 0.12% TIME 08:04:56



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Next immediate resistive barrier is seen at 96.30 (R1). If instrument gains momentum on the upside and manage to overcome it we would focus on the intraday targets at 96.68 (R2) and 97.07 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Although market price remained relatively stable, depreciation below the next support level at 95.49 (S1) might assist to recovery formation evolvement. We expect that our intraday target at 95.10 (S2) and 94.70 (S3) could be exposed later on today in such case.

Resistance Levels: 96.30, 96.68, 97.07
Support Levels: 95.49, 95.10, 94.70

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Currency Converter | Forex School | ECN Forex Trading Accounts | FXCC )

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 12 2013

Troika inclined towards extending Portugal’s rescue loan maturity

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For the London session ahead UK Manufacturing production for January on monthly basis at 09:30 GMT will be key risk event of the day, along with UK Trade balance and Industrial production at same hour. The British Manufacturing Production indicator measures the changes in output produced by manufacturers and in the turning of inventory. Manufacturing is a critical sector of the economy, and strong readings are an indication of economic growth. After a string of weak releases, Manufacturing Production shot up 1.6% in February, well above the market estimate of 0.7%. However, the markets are bracing for a much weaker figure for March, with an estimate of a paltry gain of just 0.1%. Will the indicator surprise the market with another strong reading?
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/12032013/

Forex Economic Calendar :
2013-03-12 07:00 GMT | Germany. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Feb)
2013-03-12 09:30 GMT | United Kingdom. Goods Trade Balance (Jan)
2013-03-12 15:00 GMT | United Kingdom. NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) (Feb)
2013-03-12 21:00 GMT | New Zeland. REINZ House Price Index (MoM) (Feb)

Forex News :
2013-03-12 05:52 GMT | EUR/USD firmer above 1.30
2013-03-12 05:19 GMT | USD/JPY makes new highs; BoJ may call emergency meeting
2013-03-12 04:05 GMT | GBP/USD below 1.49 ahead of key UK data
2013-03-12 03:39 GMT | AUD/USD 1.0340/75 key zone to move higher - JPM


EURUSD :
HIGH 1.30464 LOW 1.30229 BID 1.30250 ASK 1.30256 CHANGE -0.15% TIME 08:10:39



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Medium-term negative bias pressure the price lower however instrument might find buyers above the important resistance level at 1.3035 (R1). Break here might open route towards to our initial targets at 1.3052 (R2) and 1.3070 (R3) Downwards scenario: Although market players may prefer to increase exposure on the short positions and push the price below the support level at 1.0318 (S1). Possible price devaluation would suggest next initial targets at 1.0306 (S2) and then 1.0295 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3035, 1.3052, 1.3070
Support Levels: 1.0318, 1.0306, 1.0295


GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.49188 LOW 1.48857 BID 1.48955 ASK 1.48967 CHANGE -0.12% TIME 08:10:39



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Immediate resistance at 1.4935 (R1) remains in near-term focus, climb above this level might open way for a stronger move towards to next interim target at 1.4969 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to final resistive measure at 1.5001 (R3) Downwards scenario: Market stabilized after the previous day’s losses and looks ready for a new step of downtrend extension. Key support level lies at 1.4866 (S1), clearance here would suggest lower targets at 1.4834 (S2) and 1.4803 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.4935, 1.4969, 1.5001
Support Levels: 1.4866, 1.4834, 1.4803

------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 96.708 LOW 96.268 BID 96.442 ASK 96.445 CHANGE 0.17% TIME 08:10:40



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: After the strong appreciation provided last week we expect some consolidation development ahead, though medium-term bias remains bullish. Marks at 96.68 (R1), 97.07 (R2) and last one at 97.49 (R3) acts as resistive measures on the upside. Downwards scenario: A short-term technical structure might turn into negative side in case of price regress below the support level at 96.01 (S1). Possible correction below this level would then be targeting initial support at 95.60 (S2) en route towards to final target at 95.20 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 96.68, 97.07, 97.49
Support Levels: 96.01, 95.60, 95.20

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( ECN Broker Account | Best Forex Trading Platform | Forex Blog | FXCC )

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 13 2013

Rehn defends Eurozone’s austerity policy

European Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs Olli Rehn spoke against the critics of budget cutting measures recommended by the European Union in an interview published today in a Finnish newspaper. Rehn responded to voices of such economists as Paul Krugman who suggest that Brussels should stop reducing spending and encourage the most indebted countries to stimulate their economies, instead of making them believe that this is a way to regain market confidence. The disagreement sprang up after the European Commission published various projections which pointed to a deeper and more prolonged recession in the countries in the south of Europe, which are implementing harsh austerity measures.

Olli Rehn believes that the experts who agree with Krugman distorted the results of a study carried out by the IMF in 2012 regarding the consequences of austerity, which said that the impact of spending cuts on growth could be greater than expected. According to the commissioner, “It is essential that the IMF paper does not give rise to the conclusion that economic adjustment would not be desirable” and that is why he believes that the critics are putting forward their own interpretation in order to attack the Eurozone policy. Rehn assured that he expects “people who are more intelligent” to present alternative and realistic propositions in order to improve the flow of credit in Europe, as until now this did not happen yet.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/13032013/

Forex Economic Calendar :
2013-03-13 10:00 GMT | E.M.U. Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (Jan)
2013-03-13 12:30 GMT | United States. Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)
2013-03-13 17:00 GMT | United States. 10-Year Note Auction
2013-03-13 20:00 GMT | New Zeland. Monetary Policy Statement

Forex News :
2013-03-13 05:22 GMT | EUR/USD eyes US retail sales
2013-03-13 04:36 GMT | USD/JPY mixed on BoJ nominees, holds above 95.60
2013-03-13 03:33 GMT | GBP/USD prints fresh weekly highs, knocks 1.4950
2013-03-13 01:16 GMT | USD/CAD momentum fading - TDS

--------------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.30438 LOW 1.30227 BID 1.30390 ASK 1.30398 CHANGE 0.05% TIME 07:58:37



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: EURUSD lost momentum recently and trapped to the range mode trading. On the upside next hurdle ahead is seen at 1.3053 (R1). Clearance here would suggest next intraday targets at 1.3069 (R2) and 1.3084 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Risk of price depreciation is seen below the support level at 1.3022 (S1). A fall below it might prolong the weakness towards to next target at 1.3006 (S2) and any further market decline would then be limited to final support at 1.2988 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3053, 1.3069, 1.3084
Support Levels: 1.3022, 1.3006, 1.2988

---------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.49524 LOW 1.48927 BID 1.49360 ASK 1.49370 CHANGE 0.25% TIME 07:58:38



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Retail trader’s sentiment on the bullish side today. Further uptrend evolvement is limited now to the important resistive bastion at 1.4952 (R1). Break here is required to enable higher targets at 1.4976 (R2) and 1.5001 (R3). Downwards scenario: Our support level is placed on the important fractal level- 1.4916 (S1). Below here is seen potential of price acceleration towards to our initial targets at 1.4890 (S2) and then final one at 1.4865 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.4952, 1.4976, 1.5001
Support Levels: 1.4916, 1.4890, 1.4865

-------------------------
USDJPY :

HIGH 96.101 LOW 95.589 BID 95.711 ASK 95.718 CHANGE -0.38% TIME 07:58:39



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: USDJPY corrected from the initial upside development yesterday and currently looking for priority in direction for today. Possibility of market appreciation is seen above the resistance level at 96.10 (R1). Break here is required to validate our targets at 96.40 (R2) and 96.69 (R3). Downwards scenario: Clearance of our next support level at 95.59 (S1) is required to enable further retracement phase and expose our target at 95.31 (S2). Further market decline looks limited to final support level at 95.03 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 96.10, 96.40, 96.69
Support Levels: 95.59, 95.31, 95.03

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( FX Central Clearing Ltd )

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 14 2013

Eurogroup talks on Cyprus at Friday meeting might be unofficial

Eurozone Finance Ministers are expected to continue their negotiations on the rescue loan for Cyprus during the meeting scheduled for Friday, although some sources claim that these negotiations will be led on the sidelines of the main talks. Cyprus and the Troika are trying to bring down the amount of the aid to 10 billion euros from the previously estimated 17 billion euros. According to Peter Jackson from FxBriefs.com “Cyprus may be forced to raise money from levies on deposits, other taxes such as corporate tax (which could be raised to 12.5% from 10%), as well as the possibility of a much opposed financial transaction tax.”

Representatives of the international lenders will meet with president Nicos Anastasiades for preparatory talks before the Friday summit on Thursday evening in Nicosia. It was given to understand that there was a possibility of striking the bailout deal already on Friday. Nevertheless, a German government official said in the European afternoon that the talks on the rescue program for Cyprus would be informal, thus no final decision could be made this week. He also added that Germany is waiting for the Troika’s evaluation of Cyprus before making any decisions. The EU Finance Ministers’ meeting is due to start on Friday at 16:00 GMT, Eurogroup chairman Jeroen Dijsselbloem informed on his Twitter account.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/14032013/

Forex Economic Calendar :
2013-03-14 08:30 GMT | Switzerland. SNB Interest Rate Decision
2013-03-14 10:00 GMT | E.M.U. Employment Change (YoY) (Q4)
2013-03-14 12:30 GMT | United States. Producer Price Index (YoY) (Feb)
2013-03-14 21:30 GMT | United States. Bank Stress Test Info

Forex News :
2013-03-14 06:08 GMT | EUR/USD, calls for lower lows persist
2013-03-14 05:23 GMT | Aussie skyrockets after 'beyond belief' Aus jobs
2013-03-14 03:50 GMT | USD/JPY call spreads attractive - Standard Chartered
2013-03-14 01:37 GMT | EUR/JPY puts pressure on 123.80/124.15 proven demand

----------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.29814 LOW 1.29431 BID 1.29552 ASK 1.29561 CHANGE -0.04% TIME 08 : 49:08



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Price tested negative territory today however clearance of next resistive structure at 1.2982 (R1) might open the way towards to our initial target at 1.2997 (R2) and any further market rise would then be targeting 1.3013 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, an element of supportive measures is found at 1.2942 (S1). Clearance of this level would suggest further downtrend development with possible targets at 1.2927 (S2) and 1.2911 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.2982, 1.2997, 1.3013
Support Levels: 1.2942, 1.2927, 1.2911

----------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.49564 LOW 1.49124 BID 1.49401 ASK 1.49411 CHANGE 0.12% TIME 08 : 49:08



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Market remains sideways oriented. Next hurdle on the upside might be found at 1.4957 (R1), break here would open road towards to our next target at 1.4979 (R2) and enable final intraday resistive structure at 1.5001 (R3). Downwards scenario: Any downside fluctuations remains for now limited to the next support level at 1.4916 (S1), only clear break here would be a signal of possible market easing towards to next targets at 1.4890 (S2) and potentially to 1.4865 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.4957, 1.4979, 1.5001
Support Levels: 1.4916, 1.4890, 1.4865

---------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 96.146 LOW 95.684 BID 95.953 ASK 95.959 CHANGE -0.17% TIME 08 : 49:09



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downwar penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Upside risk aversion is seen above the next resistance level at 96.17 (R1). Appreciation above it would suggest us about the positive intraday bias formation towards to our next targets at 96.43 (R2) and 96.69 (R3). Downwards scenario: Fresh low formed today offers an important supportive mark at 95.66 (S1). Depreciation below it might shift medium-term tendency to the bearish side and validate our next intraday targets at 95.43 (S2) and 95.18 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 96.17, 96.43, 96.69
Support Levels: 95.66, 95.43, 95.18

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Best Forex Trading Software | Forex Currency Trading blog | FXCC )

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 15 2013

Van Rompuy issues day-1 EU summit statement

After concluding the first evening of talks among Euro zone leaders, President of the European Council Herman Van Rompuy issued a first statement proving details over how best to guide European economic policies. Van Rompuy said: "We reconfirmed our overall economic strategy. It has four strands: First. Restoring financial stability, and maintaining it: this is vital for confidence of consumers and investors, a key condition for internal demand and growth; Second. Ensuring sound public finances, structurally sound; Third. Urgently fighting unemployment – especially for youth, for whom the situation is dramatic in some countries. Four. And reforming for long-term growth and competitiveness."

The statement adds: "We all agree we need to keep turning our commitments into actions and results. Implementation continues to be key. The good progress towards structurally balanced budgets must continue. For each individual country, it's about making choices that make sense in the long run: Pursuing well-designed structural reforms; Being ruthless on tax evasion. Shifting taxation away from labour; Expenditure cuts where it makes us fitter, not sacrificing vital areas like innovation or education; And launching fast-acting and targeted measures to boost growth and employment, in particular for the youth." Starting in June, Van Rompuy made the pledge to start looking not only at national reform and jobs plans, "but also at the results of the Growth Compact concluded last year" he said, adding that "as a matter of fact, the President of the European Commission made a first report on the results of the Growth Compact already this evening."
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/15032013/

Forex Economic Calendar :
N/A | E.M.U. European Council meeting
2013-03-15 10:00 GMT | E.M.U. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Feb)
2013-03-15 12:30 GMT | United States. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Feb)
2013-03-15 13:55 GMT | United States. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Mar)

Forex News :
2013-03-15 06:01 GMT | Euro buyers insist to defend $1.30; volatility to be on the rise
2013-03-15 04:48 GMT | USD/JPY unlikely to go lower on Japanese foreign investment - Nomura
2013-03-15 04:37 GMT | AUD/NZD higher, stalls below 1.2700/200 day SMA
2013-03-15 03:55 GMT | GBP could decline further – HSBC

-------------------
EURUSD
HIGH 1.30267 LOW 1.29992 BID 1.30192 ASK 1.30198 CHANGE 0.12% TIME 08:12:27



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Current price setup is aiming to resume initial upwards formation. Next resistive bastion lies at 1.3031 (R1). If the pair manages to overcome it we expect further progress towards to our initial targets at 1.3044 (R2) and 1.3057 (R3). Downwards scenario: Although, consolidation development looks reasonable on the hourly timeframe. If the market manages break our next support at 1.2997 (S1) we would suggest next supportive measures at 1.2985 (S2) and 1.2975 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3031, 1.3044, 1.3057
Support Levels: 1.2997, 1.2985, 1.2975

----------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.51039 LOW 1.50686 BID 1.50857 ASK 1.50867 CHANGE 0.04% TIME 08:12:28



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Market remains under the uptrend formation and a break above the resistance level at 1.5119 (R1) might resume bullish pressure. In such scenario, we would suggest next target at 1.5138 (R2) and 1.5156 (R3). Downwards scenario: Market decline below the next supportive mean at 1.5068 (S1) might trigger bearish pressure and enable lower target at 1.5047 (S2) and even 1.5027 (R3) mark could be exposed if the pair accelerates on the downside.

Resistance Levels: 1.5119, 1.5138, 1.5156
Support Levels: 1.5068, 1.5047, 1.5027

---------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 96.274 LOW 95.882 BID 96.089 ASK 96.093 CHANGE -0.02% TIME 08:12:29



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: USDJPY continues moving sideways however we see possibility to overcome our next resistive barrier at 96.26 (R1). Progress above it would suggest next intraday targets at 96.48 (R2) and 96.70 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Any downside penetration is limited to the initial support level at 95.88 (S1). A breach of which would open a route towards to next target at 95.67 (S2) and potentially could expose our final support for today at 95.42 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 96.26, 96.48, 96.70
Support Levels: 95.88, 95.67, 95.42

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Currency Trading Blog | Forex Account | ECN Forex Software | FXCC )

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 18 2013

Cyprus faces 'corralito' à la Argentinean

Back in May 2012, fears that Greece may leave the EU triggered bank runs in the country, and many economist speculated with the possibility of the country establishing a “corralito”- the economic measures taken in Argentina at the end of 2001 that almost completely froze bank accounts and forbade withdrawals from U.S. dollar-denominated accounts. Bank runs extended then to Spain and Italy, although they finally come under control. But revival came back this weekend: Cyprus bail-out approval cost almost €6 billion to taxpayers, which next Tuesday –Monday will be declared bank holiday-, will find something different in their bank accounts: a one-off 9.9% levy imposed on all deposits over the insurance threshold of €100,000. For accounts below the insurance ceiling, the onetime tax will be of 6.75%.

Cyprus PM Michael Sarris, admitted it was a tough decision, and even stated “I wish I was not the minister to do this,” although he added that “much more money could have been lost in a bankruptcy of the banking system or indeed of the country.” Without a rescue, Cyprus would default and threaten to unravel investor confidence in the EU that has been fostered by ECB’s president Mario Draghi promise to do “whatever it takes” to shore up the currency bloc. However, a precedent has been set, and this partial “corralito” may trigger exactly what is trying to prevent: an erosion in investors’ confidence in the EU, and bank runs, if not in Cyprus, in the rest of the peripheral troubled countries. Monday European opening may see bank runs, particularly in Spain and Italy, and a domino effect may force governments to take extraordinary measures. “Corralito” arrived to Europe, and may be here to stay.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/18032013/

Forex Economic Calendar :
2013-03-18 06:45 GMT | Switzerland. SECO Economic Forecasts
2013-03-18 10:00 GMT | E.M.U. Trade Balance n.s.a. (Jan)
2013-03-18 12:30 GMT | Canada. Foreign portfolio investment in Canadian securities (Jan)
2013-03-18 23:15 GMT | Australia. RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speech

Forex News :
2013-03-18 05:52 GMT | GBP/USD stable around 1.51 despite the turmoil
2013-03-18 05:27 GMT | Cyprus all over the place and EUR/USD below 1.29
2013-03-18 03:25 GMT | EUR/GBP tumbles through 0.8550 as Euro sell-offs
2013-03-18 02:43 GMT | EUR/JPY, break of 122.00 exposes 121.10/20 - V.Bednarik

-------------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.29315 LOW 1.28818 BID 1.29038 ASK 1.29043 CHANGE -1.3% TIME 08:57:38



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Market dropped on the news from Cyprus and determined negative bias on the medium-term perspective. However break above the resistance at 1.2943 (R1) would suggest next target at 1.2971 (R1) en route towards to higher mark at 1.2999 (R3). Downwards scenario: The Asian session momentum on the downside suggests a possible move lower ahead. Key supportive bastion lie at 1.2881 (S1). Prolonged movement below it might then expose our intraday targets at 1.2857 (S2) and 1.2832 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.2943, 1.2971, 1.2999
Support Levels: 1.2881, 1.2857, 1.2832

--------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.51305 LOW 1.50717 BID 1.51041 ASK 1.51052 CHANGE -0.02% TIME 08:57:39



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

Upwards scenario: GBPUSD trapped to the consolidation phase. Fractals level at 1.5115 (R1) offers a good resistance level. Break here is required to take the pair towards to initial targets, located at 1.5135 (R2) and 1.5156 (R3). Downwards scenario: As long as price stays below the moving averages our short-term outlook would be negative. Any extension lower the 1.5082 (S1) is being able to drive market price towards to our next targets at 1.5061 (S2) and 1.5040 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5115, 1.5135, 1.5156
Support Levels: 1.5082, 1.5061, 1.5040

----------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 94.987 LOW 94.311 BID 94.464 ASK 94.467 CHANGE -0.83% TIME 08:57:40



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

Upwards scenario: USDJPY has gradually climbed eased during the Asian session, having made fresh low but lately lost momentum. In terms of technical levels next resistance level could be found at 94.98 (R1). Appreciation above it would enable higher marks at 95.22 (R2) and 95.45 (R3). Downwards scenario: Our medium-term outlook remains negative. If the pair accelerates on the downside and manage to break our next support level at 94.31 (S1), it is likely to expose our next support level at 94.08 (S2) and 93.85 (S3) later on today.

Resistance Levels: 94.98, 95.22, 95.45
Support Levels: 94.31, 94.08, 93.85

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 19 2013

Will Cyprus Bailout Set Tone for Trading this Week?

The sharp sell-off in currencies and European equities overnight indicate that investors are shocked by Cyprus' bailout news as they should be since this would be the first time in Eurozone history that depositors have taken a loss. The EUR/USD may have rebounded off its lows on speculation about a modified deal that is less aggressive but regardless of how much depositors above or below 100,000 euros are taxed, the mere possibility that they will be taxed at all undermines the credibility of the entire banking system. Optimists argue that this situation is unique to Cyprus but we don't know how reassuring a watered down deal will be as this could set a precedent for the entire region. We won't even go into how unfair it is that senior bondholders are being saved at the expense of moms and pops and that depositors with money under their mattresses are safer than depositors in the bank. What we do know is that the Cyprus bailout has set the tone for trading in an extremely data and event risk heavy week by reawakening the fear of contagion. The vote in parliament on the bailout deal has been postponed until Tuesday and this means that this risk off tone will remain prevalent for the immediate future.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/19032013/

Forex Economic Calendar :
N/A | United Kingdom. BOE Inflation Letter
2013-03-19 09:30 GMT | United Kingdom. Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Feb)
2013-03-19 10:00 GMT | Germany. ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment (Mar)
2013-03-19 12:30 GMT | United States. Housing Starts (MoM) (Feb)

Forex News :
2013-03-19 05:30 GMT | GBP/USD going nowhere around 1.5100
2013-03-19 05:23 GMT | Euro buying interest fades ahead of 1.30
2013-03-19 03:41 GMT | AUD/USD reverses on Rio Tinto's comments
2013-03-19 02:31 GMT | USD/JPY breaks above 95.50

---------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.29694 LOW 1.29339 BID 1.29358 ASK 1.29367 CHANGE -0.16% TIME 08 : 02:47



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Currently price is stabilized however on a slightly longer term market sentiment remains negative. Appreciation above the resistance level at 1.2969 (R1) might prolong corrective action towards to next targets at 1.2993 (R2) and 1.3016 (R3). Downwards scenario: Signal of instrument depreciation would be created if EURUSD depreciates below the next support level at 1.2934 (S1). We would suggest next interim targets at 1.2912 (S2) and then aim at 1.2890 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.2969, 1.2993, 1.3016
Support Levels: 1.2934, 1.2912, 1.2890

---------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.51128 LOW 1.5084 BID 1.50923 ASK 1.50937 CHANGE -0.09% TIME 08 : 02:48



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: So far Instrument traded in consolidative phase and being unable to made significant price deviation from its average price. Our resistive barrier at 1.5115 (R1) limits upside expansion. Break here is required to establish upwards formation targeting 1.5135 (R2) and 1.5156 (R3). Downwards scenario: Bearish pressure could find momentum below the support at 1.5082 (S1). Possible downtrend expansion would open road towards to next target at 1.5061 (S2) and any further losses would then be limited to 1.5040 (S3) mark.

Resistance Levels: 1.5115, 1.5135, 1.5156
Support Levels: 1.5082, 1.5061, 1.5040

----------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 95.746 LOW 95.123 BID 95.430 ASK 95.437 CHANGE 0.24% TIME 08 : 02:48



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Instrument has bounced back and currently trades within the bullish pattern. If It manages to break above the next resistance level at 95.75 (R1), we expect to see appreciation towards to next targets at 95.94 (R2) and 96.13 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of further price depreciation is seen below the support at 95.38 (S1). Loss here might enable bearish pressure and drive market price towards to next target at 95.19 (S2) and potentially could even expose our final target at 94.99 (S3) later on today.

Resistance Levels: 95.75, 95.94, 96.13
Support Levels: 95.38, 95.19, 94.99

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Best Forex Trading Platforms | Forex Practice Account | FXCC )

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 20 2013

Cypriot levy rejected, European leaders weigh in

Cyprus’s parliament rejected an unprecedented levy on bank deposits, rendering a blow to European plans of coercing depositors to shoulder part of the country’s rescue in a standoff that risks renewed tumult in the euro area. Cypriot legislators in Nicosia voted 36 against to none in favor of the proposal in a show of hands today along with 19 abstentions – hammered out by euro-area finance leaders over the weekend, the deal had sought to raise €5.8B by drawing funds from Cyprus bank accounts in return for €10.0B in international aid. Stocks dropped and the euro fell to a three-month low against the dollar at the prospect of impasse in Cyprus. European officials including Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem had said that Cyprus must contribute to its own bailout, while stressing that the Cypriot situation is unique. German coalition lawmakers said that Cyprus can expect no aid without meeting the terms.

“Cyprus has rebuffed the outstretched hand” of its partners, Hans Michelbach, a German lawmaker from Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic bloc and the ranking member on parliament’s finance committee, noted in a statement. The vote is “an act of collective unreason” and “the people of Cyprus must now pay a high price.”The ECB said it “takes note of the decision of the Cypriot Parliament and is in contact with its Troika partners” from the International Monetary Fund and the European Commission, according to a statement. “The ECB reaffirms its commitment to provide liquidity as needed within the existing rules.”
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/20032013/

Forex Economic Calendar :
2013-03-20 07:00 GMT | Germany. Producer Price Index (YoY) (Feb)
2013-03-20 09:30 GMT | United Kingdom. Bank of England Minutes
2013-03-20 18:00 GMT | United States. Fed Interest Rate Decision
2013-03-20 21:45 GMT | New Zeland. Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q4)

Forex News :
2013-03-20 05:50 GMT | GBP/USD below 1.5100 ahead of a very very busy day
2013-03-20 04:40 GMT | AUD/USD back to session highs, still sideways
2013-03-20 02:39 GMT | Euro area faces new challenge on Cyprus drama - Nomura
2013-03-20 01:53 GMT | USD/JPY kept below 95.00, sellers dominant s/t

--------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.2879 LOW 1.28566 BID 1.28755 ASK 1.28762 CHANGE -0.06% TIME 08 : 07:31



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: EURUSD discounted value determined negative bias on the medium-term perspective. From the technical side, next resistance is seen at 1.2916 (R1). Only clearance here would allow further gains, targeting 1.2937 (R2) and 1.2959 (R3). Downwards scenario: Descending channel formation on the hourly chart frame is limited now to the session low - 1.2856 (S1). If the price manages to surpass it we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.2835 (S2) and 1.2813 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.2916, 1.2937, 1.2959
Support Levels: 1.2856, 1.2835, 1.2813

---------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.51065 LOW 1.50798 BID 1.50891 ASK 1.50902 CHANGE -0.05% TIME 08 : 07:32



OUTLOOK SUMMARY Neutral
TREND CONDITION Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY High

Upwards scenario: GBPUSD is consolidating on the hourly chart however we see potential for further appreciation towards to our targets at 1.5128 (R2) and 1.5149 (R3) if the price manages to overcome key resistance measure at 1.5107 (R1). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, price pattern suggests bearish potential if the instrument manages to overcome next support level at 1.5072 (S1). Possible price regress could exposed our initial targets at 1.5053 (S2) and 1.5033 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 1.5107, 1.5128, 1.5149
Support Levels: 1.5072, 1.5053, 1.5033

---------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 95.202 LOW 94.829 BID 95.035 ASK 95.040 CHANGE -0.13% TIME 08 : 07:33



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Instrument consolidates after the initial price cut yesterday though our medium-term outlook is positive. Our reference point for the upside penetration locates at 95.22 (R1). Clearance here is required to enable higher targets at 95.39 (R2) and 95.55 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside our attention is put to the immediate support level at 94.99 (S1). Break here is required to enable bearish forces and expose our intraday targets at 94.83 (S2) and 94.67 (S3

Resistance Levels: 95.22, 95.39, 95.55
Support Levels: 94.99, 94.83, 94.67

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( ECN Forex Trading Accounts | ECN Broker List | Currency Converter | FXCC )

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Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 21 2013

Fitch downgrades Italy to BBB+, outlook negative

Fitch Ratings decided to downgrade Italy's rating to 'BBB+' from 'A-', citing the inconclusive results of the Italian parliamentary elections and deeper recession as the main reasons. Fitch also kept negative outlook on the country, meaning Italy could see another downgrade. "The inconclusive results of the Italian parliamentary elections on 24-25 February make it unlikely that a stable new government can be formed in the next few weeks", said Fitch. "The increased political uncertainty and non-conducive backdrop for further structural reform measures constitute a further adverse shock to the real economy amidst the deep recession". Fitch also said that the ongoing recession in Italy is one of the deepest in Europe as confirmed by Q412 data.

Following what could be described as a 'remarkable' jobs number in the United States last Friday, with the jobless rate down to 7.7% and the economy creating 236K new jobs, highest since early 2012, the US Dollar continues to be one of the big winners in the currency market. Are the stars aligning for further Greenback strength? Before touching on the prospects for further USD appreciation, especially against the Euro, an interesting phenomenon not to ignore last Friday is the positive correlation between the US Dollar and the equity market, an occurrence which has seen commentators of the market busy speculating such behaviour as an early sign of improvement in market confidence.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/11032013/

Forex Economic Calendar :
2013-03-11 07:00 GMT | Germany. Trade Balance s.a. (Jan)
2013-03-11 09:00 GMT | Italy. Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q4)
2013-03-11 21:00 GMT | New Zeland. REINZ House Price Index (MoM) (Feb)
2013-03-11 23:50 GMT | Japan. BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Forex News :
2013-03-11 05:46 GMT | EUR/USD, the 1.30 flirt goes on ...
2013-03-11 05:22 GMT | GBP/USD resting above 1.4900
2013-03-11 03:28 GMT | AUD/JPY holding above 98 on the back of Yen weakness
2013-03-11 01:15 GMT | EUR/JPY unchanged below 125.00


EURUSD :
HIGH 1.3009 LOW 1.29792 BID 1.30027 ASK 1.30035 CHANGE 0.03% TIME 08 : 04:55



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Our medium-term outlook is negative for the EURUSD though possibility of price deviation is seen above the next resistance level at 1.3016 (R1). Retracement targets could be exposed at 1.3035 (R2) and 1.3054 (R3). Downwards scenario: Activation of bearish forces is possible below the support level at 1.2979 (S1). Clearance here would suggest next interim target at 1.2960 (S2) and if the price holds its momentum on the downside we would suggest final target for today at 1.2941 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3016, 1.3035, 1.3054
Support Levels: 1.2979, 1.2960, 1.2941

---------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.49273 LOW 1.49009 BID 1.49263 ASK 1.49274 CHANGE 0.07% TIME 08 : 04:55



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

Upwards scenario: Breaching of resistance at 1.4958 (R1) is required to provide an evidence of corrective action. Possible targets could be exposed at 1.4990 (R2) and 1.5022 (R3) later on today in such scenario. Downwards scenario: Fresh low formed today offers an important support level at 1.4899 (S1). Discounted value of GBPUSD might push through this mark and enable next visible target at 1.4866 (S2) en route to support at 1.4834 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.4958, 1.4990, 1.5022
Support Levels: 1.4899, 1.4866, 1.4834

---------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 96.256 LOW 95.94 BID 96.125 ASK 96.131 CHANGE 0.12% TIME 08 : 04:56



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Next immediate resistive barrier is seen at 96.30 (R1). If instrument gains momentum on the upside and manage to overcome it we would focus on the intraday targets at 96.68 (R2) and 97.07 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Although market price remained relatively stable, depreciation below the next support level at 95.49 (S1) might assist to recovery formation evolvement. We expect that our intraday target at 95.10 (S2) and 94.70 (S3) could be exposed later on today in such case.

Resistance Levels: 96.30, 96.68, 97.07
Support Levels: 95.49, 95.10, 94.70

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( FX Central Clearing Ltd )

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Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 22 2013

Dimitriadis presents a resolution process to the Cypriot Parliament

The Cypriot Central Bank governor Panicós Dimitriadis has announced a bank restructuring plan that will allow banks to reopen on Tuesday. Dimitriadis said on Thursday that the bill would protect bank deposits up to €100K according to sources. Earlier, the Popular bank allowed costumers to withdrawal cash but limited by individual to 260 euros a day. Bloomberg has published that the bill has the approval of the Troika, however, the Eurogroup is weighing the close of the Cyprus Popular bank and the bank of Cyprus.

With European data disappointing and U.S. economic data surprising to the upside investors have returned to selling euros. Not only has tail risk in the Eurozone returned with the ECB threatening to pull support from Cyprus if an agreement is not reached by Monday but the outlook for growth has taken a turn for the worse, compounding the euro's problems. Eurozone manufacturing and service sector activity contracted at a faster pace in the month of March with the Eurozone PMI Composite index dropping to 46.5 from 47.9. While this is not the lowest reading that we have seen in the past 6 months, the cracks in Germany are reappearing. The Eurozone's largest economy is no longer able to provide umbrella support for the rest of the region and is now weakening alongside France, Italy and Spain. Tomorrow's German IFO report will most likely tell the same story of weakness in the Eurozone economy. The deteriorating growth outlook and risks posed by Cyprus and Italy (lets not forget about the unresolved elections) makes the euro less attractive than the dollar and should continue to add pressure on the currency.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/22032013/

Forex Economic Calendar :
2013-03-22 08:00 GMT | E.M.U. Cyprus Parliament Vote on Banking Restructuring, Wealth Fund Bill
2013-03-22 09:00 GMT | Germany. IFO - Business Climate (Mar)
2013-03-22 09:00 GMT | Germany. IFO - Expectations (Mar)
2013-03-22 14:00 GMT | Belgium. Leading Indicator (Mar)

Forex News :
2013-03-22 05:59 GMT | EUR/USD falls below 1.29, Cyprus fails to get Russian aid
2013-03-22 05:51 GMT | USD/JPY breaks down to yesterday's 94.50 lows
2013-03-22 05:43 GMT | Cyprus mission in Russia fails
2013-03-22 05:21 GMT | GBP/USD looking at 1.5200 asks


EURUSD :
HIGH 1.29244 LOW 1.28882 BID 1.28994 ASK 1.28999 CHANGE 0.01% TIME 08 : 41:37



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Market having failed to establish directional movement yesterday. Possible price strengthening might arise above the next resistance level at 1.2925 (R1). Our interim target holds at 1.2942 (R2) en route toward to our major aim at 1.2960 (R3). Downwards scenario: Further devaluation is limited to the supportive barrier at 1.2879 (S1). Only loss here would be considered as new step of downtrend expansion, targeting 1.2861 (S2) and 1.2844 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.2925, 1.2942, 1.2960
Support Levels: 1.2879, 1.2861, 1.2844

-------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.51945 LOW 1.5165 BID 1.51878 ASK 1.51888 CHANGE 0.1% TIME 08 : 41:38



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: A bullish momentum might occur if the price manages to climb above the key resistance level at 1.5208 (R1). Next targets on the way could be exposed at 1.5234 (R2) and 1.5260 (R3). Downwards scenario: We do expect some pull-backs development on the downside below the support level at 1.5156 (S1). Short-term momentum on the negative side might open the way towards to immediate supports at 1.5127 (S2) and 1.5100 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5208, 1.5234, 1.5260
Support Levels: 1.5156, 1.5127, 1.5100

----------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 95.132 LOW 94.545 BID 94.683 ASK 94.688 CHANGE -0.23% TIME 08 : 41:39



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Pair has settled negative bias on the hourly timeframe. However potential to move higher is seen above the 95.14 (R1) resistance level. Violation here would suggest next intraday targets at 95.34 (R2) and 95.55 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of market weakening is seen below the key support at 94.41 (S1). Loss here is required to allow further declines and expose our support barrier at 94.22 (S3) en route towards to final target for today at 94.02 (S3)

Resistance Levels: 95.14, 95.34, 95.55
Support Levels: 94.41, 94.22, 94.02

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Currency Converter | Top ECN Forex Broker | Forex Software | FXCC )

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 25 2013

Eurogroup reaches agreement with Cypriot authorities

Already finished Eurogroup and FMI press conference, attending IMF chief Christine Lagarde, Eurogroup Chairman Jeroen Dijsselbloem, EU's commissioner for economic affairs Olli Rehn, European Central Bank (ECB) board member Jorg Asmussen, and ESM managing director Klaus Regling, the Eurogroup has reached an agreement with the Cypriot authorities “on the key elements necessary for a future macroeconomic adjustment programme,” the official Eurogroup statement reads. The agreement comes from all sides of the table, including all Euro area members states, along with the ECB, the IMF, and the ESM, also known as Troika. No further Cyprus parliament voting will be needed as the levy part of the deal has been “avoided”, EU chairman said, remarking “should be no doubts about that,” referring to any kind of discount on deposits below insured € 100k accounts.

Main focus on the deal has been reduced to the banking sector, also explained Mr Dijsselbloem, where "solution focuses on troubled banks," and the insured deposits. Among other measures, solution passes through a “split in a good and a bad bank”, said EU's chairman, with the “bad” one “gone” in some uncertain future time. Laiki Bank, the “bad” bank, “will ultimately disappear," said IMF's Lagarde. Bank of Cyprus would be the “good” one, where under € 100k secured deposits would be transferred. Asked if there is any chance the “bad bank” survives, Dijsselbloem said there could be a small part left, but that only time could tell. For the amount of haircuts in unsecured deposits, no concrete answers were also given, saying "numbers will have to be calculated," noted Dijsselbloem, adding: "can't put a number on that yet." Olli Rehn also referred to upcoming EU memorandum by mid April as a source for further answers. When questioned if all this agreement was mainly just to “buy some time,” EU commissioner denied it.-https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/25032013/

Forex Economic Calendar :
N/A | United States. Fed's William Dudley speech
2013-03-25 09:30 GMT | United Kingdom. BBA Mortgage Approvals (Feb)
2013-03-25 17:15 GMT | United States. Fed's Bernanke Speech
2013-03-25 21:45 GMT | New Zeland. Trade Balance (YoY) (Feb)

Forex News :
2013-03-25 06:24 GMT | EUR/USD still bearish despite the good news - UBS
2013-03-25 04:01 GMT | Eurogroup reaches agreement with Cypriot authorities
2013-03-25 01:42 GMT | EUR/JPY soars on Cyprus tentative deal
2013-03-25 01:13 GMT | AUD/USD holds below 1.0460

--------------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.30482 LOW 1.29414 BID 1.30342 ASK 1.30348 CHANGE 0.34% TIME 08 : 35:13



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: The pair accelerates on the upside and determined positive market sentiment. If it manages to climb above the resistance level at 1.3049 (R1) there is a chance for a move towards to next targets at 1.3065 (R2) and 1.3081 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, pair looks overbought and possibility of correction is high. Next on tap is seen support level at 1.3010 (S1). Below here locates initial targets at 1.2993 (S2) and 1.2975 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3049, 1.3065, 1.3081
Support Levels: 1.3010, 1.2993, 1.2975

--------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.52598 LOW 1.52233 BID 1.52434 ASK 1.52445 CHANGE 0.11% TIME 08 : 35:13



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

Upwards scenario: Our technical outlook for the medium-term perspective remains bullish oriented. Clearance of next resistance level at 1.5260 (R1) would enable bullish pressure and might expose our next targets at 1.5291 (R2) and 1.5322 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: On a slightly longer term we expect pullback formation. Risk of market depreciation is seen below the next support level at 1.5208 (S1). Clearance here would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5177 (S2) and 1.5144 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5260, 1.5291, 1.5322
Support Levels: 1.5208, 1.5177, 1.5144

------------------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 94.962 LOW 94.354 BID 94.657 ASK 94.664 CHANGE 0.21% TIME 08 : 35:14



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

Upwards scenario: Market tested positive side today and formed gradual ascending move. Next resistance in focus stays at 94.97 (R1). If the break occur here we might see stronger move, targeting next attractive points at 95.20 (R2) and 95.43 (R3). Downwards scenario: Progress below the initial support level at 94.48 (S1) might trigger protective orders and stopped current consolidation development. Our intraday targets are seen at 94.25 (S2) and 94.01 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 94.97, 95.20, 95.43
Support Levels: 94.48, 94.25, 94.01

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Software | Free Forex Demo Account | Best Forex Broker | FXCC )

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 26 2013

Cypriot central bank to meet tonight on capital controls

In an effort to avoid the money's outflow, the Cypriot central bank will meet tonight in an extraordinary session to introduce capital restrictions according to the Cyprus' president Anastasiades. The president also said, in a recent speech, the capital controls will be a temporary measure but difficult measures will be implemented in the following days. Meanwhile, Cypriot banks will open on Tuesday except Bank of Cyprus and Laiki. Earlier on the day, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, head of the Eurogroup of eurozone finance ministers, affirmed that the Cypriot plan would be used as template for another countries in the eurozone. Investors were afraid for more levys and capital restrictions across the union. Renewed jitters on Cyprus and fears of contagion to other indebted sovereigns in the bloc periphery have been weighting on EUR after the increased vulnerability seen in Cypriot deposits.

And speaking of anti-climaxes, Cyprus appears to have reached an agreement to avoid bankruptcy but, whilst it protects savers with less than €100,000 on account in Cypriot banks, bond holders in Laiki Bank will lose their funds and depositors with more than €100,000 in Laiki will lose a substantial part of those funds. The accounts will be frozen while the bank is closed down and most of its debt transferred to Bank of Cyprus and that could result in larger investors losing up to 90% of their funds. That isn’t going to make Cyprus popular with their Russian and Eastern European tax avoiders and it won’t make Europe popular with Russia either. That’s could be a problem because Russia controls a massive amount of the energy used by Europe. If Cyprus and the EU wanted to make enemies, other than invading Russia, they couldn’t have hatched a better plan.
FXCC Forex Trading Blog

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-03-26 07:00 GMT | United Kingdom. Nationwide Housing Prices n.s.a (YoY)
2013-03-26 12:30 GMT | United States. Durable Goods Orders (Feb)
2013-03-26 14:00 GMT | United States. Consumer Confidence (Mar)
2013-03-26 14:00 GMT | United States. New Home Sales (MoM) (Feb)

FOREX NEWS :

2013-03-26 05:51 GMT | AUD/USD unchanged as RBS Stevens speech a non event
2013-03-26 05:19 GMT | EUR/USD down to 1.2660 now and option
2013-03-26 01:41 GMT | USD/JPY higher on Kuroda's promises; Again
2013-03-26 01:32 GMT | GBP/JPY recovers ground as Kuroda speaks

MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis

-------------------------------------
Forex Technical Analysis EURUSD



Upwards scenario: EUR extended its decline versus the USD and determined negative medium-term technical outlook. However above the resistance at 1.2894 (R1) opens a route towards to next resistive measures at 1.2919 (R2) and 1.2945 (R3) Downwards scenario: In terms of technical levels, risk of price depreciation is seen below the next support level at 1.2829 (S1). Loss here would suggest to monitor marks at 1.2806 (S2) and 1.2784 (S3) as possible intraday targets.

Resistance Levels: 1.2894, 1.2919, 1.2945
Support Levels: 1.2829, 1.2806, 1.278
----------------------------------------
Forex Technical Analysis GBPUSD



Upwards scenario: Instrument formed fresh low yesterday however retail trades sentiment shifted to the bullish side on the short-term perspective. Further market rise is limited now to the key barrier at 1.5208 (R1), clearance here is required to enable next resistances at 1.5234 (R2) and last one at 1.5261 (R3). Downwards scenario: Failure to establish further gains might lead to the price depreciation. Next immediate support could be found at 1.5142 (S1). Break here is required to open route towards to our targets at 1.5118 (S2) and 1.5093 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5208, 1.5234, 1.5261
Support Levels: 1.5142, 1.5118, 1.5093

--------------------------------------
Forex Technical Analysis USDJPY



Upwards scenario: Medium- term tendency remains bearish as both moving averages are pointing down. Though risk of market strengthening is seen above the resistance level at 94.45 (R1). Clearance here would open way towards to next targets at 94.67 (R2) and 94.90 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of market decline is seen below the key support level at 93.86 (S1). Loss here might downgrade currency rate towards to the next supportive means at 93.64 (S2) and 93.43 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 94.45, 94.67, 94.90
Support Levels: 93.86, 93.64, 93.43

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 27 2013

European Parliament considers bailing-in large depositors

The euro dropped in the European afternoon on information from Reuters that the European Parliament would be inclined to bail-in big savers, who hold deposits of over 100,000 euros at distressed banks. MEP Gunnar Hokmark, who is taking part in creating a new law aimed at dealing with such banks told Reuters that: "Deposits below 100,000 euros are protected … deposits above 100,000 euros are not protected and shall be treated as part of the capital that can be bailed in." Eurogroup chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem’s comments on Monday, suggesting that the bailout deal struck between Cyprus and the Troika might be a model for rescue programs for other EU countries in the future, caused the European stock markets to drop sharply in late trading.

Wall Street rises despite bad US data and Cyprus. The US stocks market traded higher on Tuesday as market didn't pay much attention to the lower-than-expected US consumer confidence but better-than-expected home prices. The Dow surged to new all-time high. The Dow Jones advaced 111.90 points or 0.77% to close at 14,559.65. The S&P 500 added 12.08 points or 0.78% to end the day at 1,563.77. And the Nasdaq Composite gained 17.18 points or 0.53% to finish at 3,252.48.
FXCC Forex Trading Blog


FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-03-27 09:30 GMT | United Kingdom. UK Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q4)
2013-03-27 10:00 GMT | E.M.U. Consumer Confidence (Mar)
2013-03-27 12:30 GMT | Canada. Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index
2013-03-27 14:00 GMT | United States. Pending Home Sales (YoY)


FOREX NEWS :
2013-03-27 07:24 GMT | EUR/USD muted after German data
2013-03-27 06:25 GMT | Time to build a short position in JPY again – RBS
2013-03-27 04:28 GMT | USD/JPY climbs above 94.80 helped by USD buying across the board
2013-03-27 03:27 GMT | NZD/USD, exporters keen buyers of NZD dips – BNZ


MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis



Upwards scenario: Neutral channel formation remains in play on the hourly chart. Our next resistance level is placed above the local peak at 1.2868 (R1). Strengthening above it would point to resistive structure at 1.2890 (R2) onto 1.2912 (R3). Downwards scenario: While both moving averages are pointing down, medium-term technical outlook would be negative. Key support level lie at 1.2837 (S1), below here opens a route towards to our initial targets at 1.2815 (S2) and 1.2793 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.2868, 1.2890, 1.2912
Support Levels: 1.2837, 1.2815, 1.2793



Forex Technical Analysis GBPUSDUpwards scenario: Next resistance level is seen at 1.5170 (R1), subsequently loss here might create upside momentum and drive market price towards to next targets at 1.5190 (R2) and 1.5210 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: If the price failed to establish further positive bias today, we expect to see retest of our key support level at 1.5147 (S1). Break here is required to enable initial targets at 1.5128 (S2) and 1.5 109 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 1.5170, 1.5190, 1.5210
Support Levels: 1.5147, 1.5128, 1.5109



Upwards scenario: Next hurdle on the upside is seen at important technical level – 94.90 (R1). If the price manages to overcome it we expect further acceleration towards to our initial targets at 95.08 (R2) and 95.25 (R3). Downwards scenario: Instrument might retest our next support level at 94.58 (S1) later on today. Market decline below it would create bearish sentiment and enable our interim target at 94.40 (S2). Final support for today locates at 94.22 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 94.90, 95.08, 95.25

Support Levels: …..

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Currency Converter | ECN Broker | Forex Trading Account | FXCC )

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 28 2013

Capital controls in Cyprus to affect international transactions

he Cypriot government has revealed the details of the capital controls it intends to impose on transfers before banks reopen on Thursday. The restrictions are aimed at preventing an outflow of money and are supposed to last seven days. The capital controls, which will affect all accounts regardless of their currency, will involve a ban on taking out sums of money in cash greater than 3000 euros on one trip out of the country and a monthly 5000 euro limit on credit and debit card transactions abroad. Additionally, cashing cheques will be prohibited and savings accounts frozen until their expiry date. Restrictions on ATM withdrawals have not been listed among the capital control measures, even though they currently exist.

The financial markets are still mulling over the repercussions of the Cyprus drama and their angst is being fuelled by comments by Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem, that the EU sees the Cyprus deal as a template for any further bailouts. i.e. bond holders will lose their fund entirely and larger savers would have some of their funds syphoned off to aid the bailout. That was later denied according to a report on Bloomberg but investors with funds in EU banks are understandably edgy and all eyes will be on the Cypriot withdrawals over the weeks ahead. The fear of a run on European banks and the political pressure that would produce is ever-present and there are many reports about the rise of the German Anti-Euro political party. The Euro remains at the weaker end of its range in anticipation of those events
FXCC Forex Trading Blog

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-03-28 07:00 GMT | Germany. Unemployment Change (Mar)
2013-03-28 12:30 GMT | United States. Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q4)
2013-03-28 12:30 GMT | Canada. Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (Jan)
2013-03-28 23:30 GMT | Japan. Unemployment Rate (Feb)

FOREX NEWS :

2013-03-28 02:23 GMT | AUD/USD turns bearish as stocks decline in Asia
2013-03-28 02:22 GMT | USD/JPY dips to 94.10 lows post-Kuroda
2013-03-28 02:03 GMT | New Zealand: M3 Money Supply (YoY) (Feb): 6.6% vs 6.4%
2013-03-28 01:40 GMT | EUR/AUD keeps pushing below 1.2250



Forex Technical Analysis EURUSD



MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: The low of the 26-03-2013 offers an important resistive level at 1.2829 (R1). Any penetration above it might shift the balance to the bullish side and validate our intraday targets at 1.2859 (R2) and 1.2889 (R3). Downwards scenario: Further downtrend evolvement might occur below the immediate support level at 1.2752 (S1). Clearance here is required to enable our next targets at 1.2722 (S2) and 1.2693 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 1.2829, 1.2859, 1.2889
Support Levels: 1.2752, 1.2722, 1.2693


Forex Technical Analysis GBPUSD



Upwards scenario: Next hurdle that limit uptrend development lies above the local high at 1.5149 (R1). If the break occurs here, next attractive level could be exposed at 1.5165 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to 1.5181 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, possibility of market decline is seen below the next support level at 1.5127 (S1). Loss here would suggest next targets at 1.5110 (S2) and 1.5092 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5149, 1.5165, 1.5181
Support Levels: 1.5127, 1.5110, 1.5092


Forex Technical Analysis USDJPY



Upwards scenario: Possibility of market strengthening is seen above the resistance level at 94.27 (R1). Clearance here is required to validate next interim target at 94.42 (R2) and any further rise would then be targeting mark at 94.58 (R3). Downwards scenario: However the downside direction remains favored according to the technical indicators. Fresh low offers a key support measure at 93.98 (S1). Decline below it would enable next targets located at 93.83 (S2) and 93.69 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 94.27, 94.42, 94.58
Support Levels: 93.98, 93.83, 93.69

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Best Forex Trading Platform | ECN Broker Account | FXCC )

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 29 2013

The Cyprus moment

The euro zone could be slipping into a new period of turbulence even before it has had a chance to return to growth. And yet the improvement previously discussed in these pages has been confirmed: borrowing conditions for governments have improved and some, such as Ireland, have made a successful return to the markets. Ratings on sovereign debt have stabilised. One sign of an easing of financial tensions in the zone is that the internal balances in the Eurosystem, as reflected in Target 2 balances, have narrowed to a degree. These are encouraging but fragile signs that could be compromised by the difficulties in managing the Cypriot crisis or by the political uncertainty in Italy. Is there a new European crisis brewing in Cyprus? The country’s banking system needs to be recapitalised, failing which the European Central Bank (ECB) – which is not responsible for solvency issues – could cease to provide support. However, given the size of the banking sector (seven times GDP) the sums in play by far exceed the country’s repayment capacity. The EUR 17bn of total needs (of which EUR 10bn for banks) account for one year’s GDP for Cyprus, which is only the 26th biggest economy in European Union. A loan of this amount from the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) would push government debt up to the unsustainable level of around 200% of GDP. The main risk would then be the snuffing out of the Cypriot economy for many years, with no certainty that any financial aid would in fact be repaid.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/29032013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-03-29 12:30 GMT | United States. US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Prices Index (YoY) (Feb)
2013-03-29 12:30 GMT | United States. US Personal Income (MoM) (Feb)
2013-03-29 12:30 GMT | United States. US Personal Spending (Feb)
2013-03-29 13:55 GMT | United States. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Mar)

FOREX NEWS :
2013-03-29 07:07 GMT | EUR/USD hovering around 1.2800
2013-03-29 06:00 GMT | GBP/USD holding around 1.5200
2013-03-29 05:36 GMT | Japan data disappoints; Yen advances a bit
2013-03-29 03:53 GMT | EUR/JPY gravitating around 120.70

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EURUSD :
HIGH 1.28367 LOW 1.27934 BID 1.28082 ASK 1.28086 CHANGE -0.07% TIME 09 : 14:14



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: On the upside resistive structure at 1.2836 (R1) prevents further gains. Clearance here is required to open route towards to next target at 1.2859 (R2) and then final target could be triggered at 1.2884 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand price could retest our next support level at 1.2787 (S1) later on today. Successful penetration below it would suggest next intraday targets at 1.2764 (S2) and 1.2740 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.2836, 1.2859, 1.2884
Support Levels: 1.2787, 1.2764, 1.2740

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GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.52187 LOW 1.5177 BID 1.51814 ASK 1.51827 CHANGE -0.06% TIME 09 : 14:15



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Technically medium-term bias remains positive. Next resistive structure holds above the local high of the day - at 1.5218 (R1). Break here would suggest marks at 1.5231 (R2) and 1.5244 (R3) as next visible targets. Downwards scenario: Activation of bearish forces is possible below the support level at 1.5167 (S1). Clearance here would suggest next interim target at 1.5153 (S2) and if the price holds its momentum on the downside we would suggest final target for today at 1.5140 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5218, 1.5231, 1.5244
Support Levels: 1.5167, 1.5153, 1.5140

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USDJPY :
HIGH 94.299 LOW 93.973 BID 94.046 ASK 94.061 CHANGE -0.1% TIME 09 : 14:16



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Any upside actions looks limited to resistance level at 94.25 (R1). Surpassing of this level might enable next target at 94.38 (R2) and any further gains would then be targeting final mark at 94.51 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Fractal level accumulation on the 93.95 (S1) zone offers an important technical level. Discounted value of USDJPY might push through this mark and enable next visible target at 93.82 (S2) en route to support at 93.69 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 94.25, 94.38, 94.51
Support Levels: 93.95, 93.82, 93.69

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( FX Central Clearing Ltd )

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Apr 01 2013

US Data, Italian Politics and Holidays

While it has been and will continue to be an exceedingly quiet morning in the foreign exchange market with most of the major markets closed for the Easter holidays, there were still have a few pieces of U.S. data released this morning. Personal income rose 1.1% in the month of February while personal spending rose 0.7%. USD/JPY barely reacted to the news because there's no one trading today but both numbers were better than expected and consistent with a continued recovery in the U.S. economy. The stronger increase in incomes versus spending is also a healthy trend that makes the light at the end of the tunnel shine slightly brighter for the Federal Reserve. The final University of Michigan Consumer Confidence numbers will be released later this morning but no revisions are expected and so the data should be a nonevent for the U.S. dollar.

Now that the situation in Cyprus has been pacified, the focus in Europe has shifted back to Italy where there were rumors that Berlusconi is open to a coalition with Bersani. He has since denied this possibility, saying instead that a grand coalition with an agreement on program reforms is the only acceptable option. Recent polls suggest that 50% of Italians are ready to vote again. - https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/01042013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-04-01 14:00 GMT | USA.Construction Spending (MoM) (Feb)
2013-04-01 14:00 GMT | USA.ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
2013-04-01 14:00 GMT | USA.ISM Prices Paid (Mar)
2013-04-01 22:30 GMT | AU.AiG Performance of Mfg Index (Mar)

FOREX NEWS :
2013-04-01 04:31 GMT | EUR/USD offered below 1.28; Italy and Cyprus main focus
2013-04-01 04:06 GMT | GBP/USD, premature to abandon bullish H&S pattern - BBH
2013-04-01 02:59 GMT | AUD/JPY lowest in 2 weeks, holds above 97.50
2013-04-01 01:26 GMT | USD/JPY dips further, 94.00 holds

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EURUSD :
HIGH 1.28129 LOW 1.2771 BID 1.27834 ASK 1.27842 CHANGE -0.25% TIME 08 : 02:10



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: The recent price acceleration on the upside suggests a possible move higher ahead. Next on tap is resistive barrier at 1.2810 (R1) on the way towards to higher targets at 1.2844 (R2) and 1.2866 (R3). Downwards scenario: Although market players may prefer to increase exposure on the short positions and push the price below the support level at 1.2768 (S1). Possible price devaluation would suggest next initial targets at 1.2742 (S2) and then 1.2701 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.2810, 1.2844, 1.2866
Support Levels: 1.2768, 1.2742, 1.2701

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GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.52018 LOW 1.51777 BID 1.51892 ASK 1.51904 CHANGE -0.07% TIME 08 : 02:10



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Medium-term negative bias pressure the price lower however instrument might find buyers above the important resistance level at 1.5207 (R1). Break here might open route towards to our initial targets at 1.5231 (R2) and 1.5256 (R3). Downwards scenario: Opportunities for bearish oriented traders are seen below the important support level at 1.5182 (S1). Loss here would open door for the downtrend expansion towards to interim targets at 1.5161 (S2) and 1.5133 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5207, 1.5231, 1.5256
Support Levels: 1.5182, 1.5161, 1.5133

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USDJPY :
HIGH 94.373 LOW 93.832 BID 93.943 ASK 93.950 CHANGE -0.28% TIME 08 : 02:11



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: USDJPY maintained a negative near-term tone though recovery action is possible above the next visible resistance at 94.34 (R1). Clearance here might initiate bullish pressure and validate our next targets at 94.59 (R2) and 94.86 (R3). Downwards scenario: Any downside fluctuations remains for now limited to the key support barrier at 93.85 (S1). Only clear break here would be a signal of possible market easing towards to our next targets at 93.60 (S2) and potentially to 93.34 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 94.34, 94.59, 94.86
Support Levels: 93.85, 93.60, 93.34

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( ECN Forex Trading Accounts | Currency Converter | Forex School | FXCC )