Daily Forex Market by FXCC

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Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jan 31 2013

MARKET OVERVIEW

Moody’s: Greek default still a possibility

A Greek credit default should not be discarded, Moody’s rating agency stated on a report published Wednesday. With regards to the state of the Greek economy, projections are for the country to contract around 5% in 2013, differing by 0.5 bp from government expectations of 4.5%. The rating agency expects the contraction to run into 2014.

As ekathimerini notes: “In its analysis on Greece issued on Wednesday, Moody’s argues that the risks that could sink the country’s economy and therefore its credit rating are still existent. These include the risks in the implementation of the second bailout program, exceptionally uncertain growth prospects, the political and social challenges the Greek economy is facing and the fact that the country’s debt is still considered unsustainable.-FXstreet.com
Forex Technical & Market Analysis: January 31 2013

Forex Economic Calendar
2013-01-31 07:00 GMT | Germany. Retail Sales (YoY) (Dec)
2013-01-31 10:00 GMT | E.M.U. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jan)
2013-01-31 13:00 GMT | Germany. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jan)Preliminar
2013-01-31 13:30 GMT | Canada. Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Nov)

Forex News
2013-01-31 05:46 GMT | EUR/USD, buyers stay firmly committed
2013-01-31 05:43 GMT | AUD/NZD longs with negative swap by late 2013? – NAB
2013-01-31 04:44 GMT | EUR/AUD keeps crawling higher above 1.3050, fresh 14-month highs
2013-01-31 03:24 GMT | AUD/USD bursts through 1.04; next support at 1.0385



TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
--------------
EURUSD

HIGH: 1.35838 | LOW: 1.35514 | BID: 1.35582 | ASK: 1.35587 | CHANGE: -0.05% | TIME: 08 : 45:47



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: A local high has been set yesterday at 1.3587 (R1). Violation here is required to provide a signal of possible uptrend resuming. Resistances at 1.3606 (R2) and 1.3624 (R3) acts as next attractive points for the bullish oriented traders. Downwards scenario: Penetration below the moving averages might maintain a negative near-term tone and overcome our support level at 1.3556 (S1). Retracement formation would then be targeting to supportive measures at 1.3536 (S2) and 1.3517 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3587, 1.3606, 1.3624
Support Levels: 1.3556, 1.3536, 1.3517

-------------------------
GBPUSD

HIGH: 1.58256 | LOW: 1.57917 | BID: 1.58041 | ASK: 1.58052 | CHANGE: 0.03% | TIME: 08 : 45:48



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium

Upwards scenario: Evidence of further uptrend formation might be provided if the pair manages to surpass key resistive barrier at 1.5827 (R1), formed on the 25-01-2013. Execution of protective orders above that level might drive market price towards to initial targets at 1.5844 (R1) and 1.5862 (R3). Downwards scenario: Although our technical indicators are bullish, the hourly structure might turn into negative territory if the price mange to overcome our support level at 1.5802 (S1). Next supportive measures locates at 1.5784 (S2) and 1.5767 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5827, 1.5844, 1.5862
Support Levels: 1.5802, 1.5784, 1.5767

-------------------
USDJPY

HIGH: 91.151 | LOW: 90.744 | BID: 90.819 | ASK: 90.824 | CHANGE: -0.29% | TIME: 08 : 45:49



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Neutral
TREND CONDITION: Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium

Upwards scenario: USDJPY remains to be traded in neutral tone. While instrument trades below the resistance level at 91.03 (R1) market would try to form further recovery. Break here is required to attack the immediate targets at 91.22 (R2) and 91.42 (R3). Downwards scenario: Current market decline is limited to the next support level at 90.73 (S1). Only clear break here would allow further market declines towards to the base of the channel. Our next intraday support levels stay at 90.55 (S2) and 90.36 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 91.03, 91.22, 91.42
Support Levels: 90.73, 90.55, 90.36

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( ECN FX Broker Platform | Forex Account | Currency Converter | FXCC )

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 01 2013

Monti: EU budget must support growth and jobs creation

Italian PM Mario Monti had a busy meeting agenda on Thursday, first speaking in Brussels with European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso and European Council President Herman Van Rompuy, then flying to Berlin where he appeared at a press conference together with Chancellor Angela Merkel. In Germany Monti commented on the next EU long-term budget saying that it shouldn’t focus solely on austerity but rather on “boosting growth, jobs and social cohesion in Europe.” He also added that Italy’s contribution, the largest of all EU countries in 2011, is disproportional relative to the country’s wealth and that budget rebates should be reassessed to be more “transparent and fair.” European officials will begin negotiations on the 2014-2020 EU budget on 7-8 February.

A Greek credit default should not be discarded, Moody's rating agency stated on a report published Wednesday. With regards to the state of the Greek economy, projections are for the country to contract around 5% in 2013, differing by 0.5 bp from government expectations of 4.5%. The rating agency expects the contraction to run into 2014. As ekathimerini notes: "In its analysis on Greece issued on Wednesday, Moody’s argues that the risks that could sink the country’s economy and therefore its credit rating are still existent. These include the risks in the implementation of the second bailout program, exceptionally uncertain growth prospects, the political and social challenges the Greek economy is facing and the fact that the country’s debt is still considered unsustainable.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/01022013/

Forex Economic Calendar
2013-02-01 09:53 GMT | Germany. Markit Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
2013-02-01 10:00 GMT | E.M.U. EMU Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jan)Preliminar
2013-02-01 13:30 GMT | United States. US Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan)
2013-02-01 15:00 GMT | United States. ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan)

Forex News
2013-02-01 05:44 GMT | USD/JPY to trend higher - RBS
2013-02-01 04:57 GMT | AUD/USD threatens weekly lows around 1.0380
2013-02-01 04:35 GMT | EUR/JPY skyrockets above 125, highest in 33 months
2013-02-01 02:43 GMT | AUD/JPY stalling ahead of the 96 round


TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
---------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.36329 LOW 1.35718 BID 1.36228 ASK 1.36232 CHANGE 0.34% TIME 08 : 05:45



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: While instrument trades above the moving averages, it keeps immediate upside potential. Next hurdle is seen at 1.3633 (R1), break above it might extend gains towards to next targets at 1.3652 (R2) and 1.3671 (R3). Downwards scenario: Our next support level is placed between the 10 sma and 20 sma, where the market might face supportive measures. The breaking lower from the trend line support would open road towards to initial targets at 1.3580 (S2) and 1.3559 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3633, 1.3652, 1.3671
Support Levels: 1.3599, 1.3580, 1.3559

-----------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.5877 LOW 1.58454 BID 1.58736 ASK 1.58746 CHANGE 0.11% TIME 08 : 05:46



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Current market installation is clearly states uptrend development on the medium-term perspective. Break above the local high at 1.5878 (R1) is required to generate new peaks and expose our intraday targets at 1.5895 (R2) and 1.5912 (R3). Downwards scenario: Although market players may prefer to reduce long positions and that might stimulate corrective extension below the support at 1.5855 (S1). Possible price devaluation would suggest next initial targets at 1.5837 (S2) and then 1.5817 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5878, 1.5895, 1.5912
Support Levels: 1.5855, 1.5837, 1.5817

-----------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 92.263 LOW 91.605 BID 92.168 ASK 92.173 CHANGE 0.49% TIME 08 : 05:47



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Upside rally remains in power. As for technical levels, our next resistance level locates at 92.29 (R1). If market gains momentum and manage to overcome it, we expect further price acceleration towards to next targets at 92.51 (R2) and 92.72 (R3). Downwards scenario: We expect some consolidation ahead prior volatility increase due to the many macroeconomic data releases today. Possibility of market decline is seen below the next support level at 91.86 (S1) with next expected target at 91.64 (S2). Any further decline would then be limited to final support at 91.40 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 92.29, 92.51, 92.72
Support Levels: 91.86, 91.64, 91.40

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Training | Currency Converter | ECN Forex Trading Accounts | FXCC )

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 04 2013

Spanish PM faces calls to resign; scandal to destabilize Europe’s calm waters?

Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy continues to face growing criticism after the scandal which hit his party earlier last week, in which allegations were made about illegal payments received by himself and what appear to be a very large list of members from the party he presides. As it is logical on the political circus, it only took a few days until the main Socialist opposition party asked the Prime Minister to step down. As Bloomberg reports, citing opposition leader Alfredo Perez Rubalcaba during a press conference on Sunday, only a day after Rajoy also made a public appearance to remain still on denial: Rubalcaba: “Rajoy should resign to make way for another prime minister who can re-establish the strength, credibility and stability that Spain needs,” “Spain needs a strong, credible, and trustworthy government.”

The data unveiled by the top selling Spanish newspaper El Pais over alleged illegal donations to key political figures such as Rajoy has sparkled a very tense environment. The numbers published by El Pais show payments over an 11-year period to Mariano Rajoy worth around 25,000 euros each year from a private fund set up by Barcenas, former PP Treasure and main person accused in the scandal. From Bloomberg: “In a recession of this magnitude, the worst thing that can happen to the Spanish economy is a political scandal,” said Jose Carlos Diez, chief economist at Intermoney SA in Madrid. “This is a theme that is going to be in the spotlight for a while and could undermine investor confidence if not addressed quickly.”
Forex Technical & Market Analysis: February 04 2013

Forex Economic Calendar
2013-02-04 09:30 GMT | United Kingdom. PMI Construction (Jan)
2013-02-04 09:30 GMT | E.M.U. Sentix Investor Confidence (Feb)
2013-02-04 10:00 GMT | E.M.U. Producer Price Index (YoY) (Dec)
2013-02-04 15:00 GMT | United States. Factory Orders (MoM) (Dec)

Forex News
2013-02-04 05:33 GMT | EUR/USD – How long till loyal buyers take it to 1.38/1.40?
2013-02-04 04:12 GMT | AUD/JPY stalls ahead of fresh 4-year highs below 97.00
2013-02-04 02:53 GMT | EUR/AUD retreats from 1.3117 session highs
2013-02-04 01:35 GMT | GBP/NZD prints historic lows below 1.8550



TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
-----------------
EURUSD

HIGH: 1.36596 | LOW: 1.36185 | BID: 1.36232 | ASK: 1.36239 | CHANGE: -0.12% | TIME: 08 : 47:36



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Low

MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: EURUSD bounced back after the last week appreciation however stabilization above the next resistance level at 1.3641 (R1) might provide market with sufficient bullish power to attack next targets at 1.3658 (R2) and 1.3676 (R3). Downwards scenario: At the moment pair is trading on the negative territory and break through support level at 1.3615 (S1) is likely scenario for today en route towards to our intraday targets at 1.3597 (S2) and 1.3580 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3641, 1.3658, 1.3676
Support Levels: 1.3615, 1.3597, 1.3580

---------------------
GBPUSD

HIGH: 1.57101 | LOW: 1.56905 | BID: 1.56979 | ASK: 1.56990 | CHANGE: 0.01% | TIME: 08 : 47:37



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Low

Upwards scenario: Pair has settled negative bias on the hourly timeframe but recently moved in sideways mode. Above the resistance level at 1.5725 (R1) is possible retracement development. Violation here might expose next intraday targets at 1.5742 (R2) and 1.5758 (R3). Downwards scenario: Friday’s losses are pointing to a negative market sentiment. Breach of our key support level at 1.5686 (S1) might trigger further downside expansion towards to our next targets at 1.5670 (S2) and 1.5654 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5725, 1.5742, 1.5758
Support Levels: 1.5686, 1.5670, 1.5654

-----------------------
USDJPY

HIGH: 92.9 | LOW: 92.491 | BID: 92.609 | ASK: 92.614 | CHANGE: -0.25% | TIME: 08 : 47:38



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Low

Upwards scenario: USDJPY maintained upside rally and currently remains stable above the 20 SMA. Further price appreciation is limited to the next resistance level at 92.82 (R1). Only clear break here would suggest next intraday targets above the local peak at 92.98 (R2) and higher one at 93.13 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other side, price depreciation below the 20 SMA and clearance of our next support level at 92.48 (S1) might provide sufficient space for the recovery formation, targeting 92.29 (R2) and 92.10 (R3).

Resistance Levels: 92.82, 92.98, 93.13
Support Levels: 92.48, 92.29, 92.10

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

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Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 05 2013

Merkel offers support to Spanish government under fire

Spanish President Mariano Rajoy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel held a joint press conference on Monday in Berlin, during which the Chancellor assured she had not lost confidence in the governing Spanish People’s Party, which currently faces corruption allegations. “We have a relation of full trust in the Spanish government... I have the impression that the whole Spanish government is working to drive down unemployment, to push through structural reforms,” the Chancellor said. Mariano Rajoy assured that his government is stable and that the People’s Party might take legal action against those who leaked documents which allegedly prove that the party received undeclared money. Later the Spanish president went on to describe the reforms already implemented in order to halt the debt crisis and said that new measures, aimed at boosting growth, will be announced shortly. Angela Merkel expressed confidence that the reforms will soon “bear fruit” and promised cooperation on bringing down youth unemployment in Spain by facilitating internships and apprenticeships in Germany for young Spaniards.

London session ahead will bring UK Services PMI data at 09:30 GMT, expected to come slightly lower than 50, level that indicates economic expansion, at 49.8, for second month in a row, for first time since early 2011. GBP is one of strongest currency among majors for last trading hours, even stronger than Yen or CAD, the two other strongest majors for last hours.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/05022013/

Forex Economic Calendar
2013-02-05 08:58 GMT | E.M.U. Markit Services PMI (Jan)
2013-02-05 09:28 GMT | United Kingdom. Markit Services PMI (Jan)
2013-02-05 10:00 GMT | E.M.U. Retail Sales (YoY) (Dec)
2013-02-05 15:00 GMT | United States. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jan)

Forex News
2013-02-05 05:59 GMT | GBP/USD above 1.5750 ahead of London open
2013-02-05 05:55 GMT | Time for a meaningful correction in EUR/USD?
2013-02-05 05:02 GMT | AUD/NZD capped below 1.24 following RBA
2013-02-05 04:28 GMT | EUR/AUD above 1.2950 on RBA rates unch



TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
-------------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.35202 LOW 1.34812 BID 1.34845 ASK 1.34851 CHANGE -0.2% TIME 07 : 59:02



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Discounted value of the EURUSD might face next immediate resistive barrier at 1.3510 (R1). Any price appreciation above it would suggest next resistances at 1.3531 (R2) and 1.3552 (S3) as recovery targets. Downwards scenario: Instrument maintained clear downtrend formation by trading on the negative territory. Key resistive bastion lie at 1.3476 (S1). Weakening below it would enable expected targets at 1.3457 (S2) and 1.3437 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3510, 1.3531, 1.3552
Support Levels: 1.3476, 1.3457, 1.3437

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GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.57664 LOW 1.57438 BID 1.57576 ASK 1.57586 CHANGE -0.03% TIME 07 : 59:03



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Hourly chart frame corrective bounce faces good resistance barrier at 1.5771 (R1) yesterday. Appreciation above it might likely push the pair toward to next targets, located at 1.5782 (R2) and 1.5793 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, we can observe that medium-term bias remains negative. Depreciation below the support level at 1.5743 (S1) would open route towards to initial targets at 1.5731 (S2) and 1.5719 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 1.5771, 1.5782, 1.5793
Support Levels: 1.5743, 1.5731, 1.5719

--------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 92.56 LOW 91.978 BID 92.365 ASK 92.371 CHANGE -0.01% TIME 07 : 59:05



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: USDJPY trapped to the correction mode after the initial uptrend development. Fresh peak formed today offers a good resistance level at 92.58 (R1). Break here is required to take the pair towards to initial targets, located at 92.80 (R2) and 93.03 (R3). Downwards scenario: Next attractive level for the downside expansion locates at 92.18 (S1). Loss here might take the pair towards to initial targets at 91.97 (S2) and 91.75 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 92.58, 92.80, 93.03
Support Levels: 92.18, 91.97, 91.75

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Free Forex Demo Account | Forex Software | Forex Trading Blog | FXCC )

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 06 2013

Hollande: The Eurozone crisis is now largely behind us

Eurozone political group leaders, together with French President François Hollande and European Commission President José Manuel Barroso gathered at the European Parliament in Strasbourg on Tuesday to discuss the future of the European Union and the Eurozone, the economic crisis and the EU budget for 2014 to 2020. President Hollande spoke about the necessity of creating an exchange rate policy for the Eurozone in order to prevent “irrational movements” of the single currency. He warned that otherwise the euro area might be “subjected to an exchange rate that does not match the true state of its economy.” Hollande also said that the Eurozone debt crisis has been largely overcome, but that nevertheless the Member States should do their utmost to bring down the excessively elevated unemployment in the area. He also pointed out the dangers connected with too much austerity: “The threat we face now is no longer the mistrust of the markets but that of the people.”

For the London session ahead there will only be UK Halifax HPI data at 08:00 GMT before BoE meeting tomorrow, and crude oil inventories at 15:30 GMT coming from the US. Since year started, Cable has lost -3.5% in value against the USD. Since mid January, Pound is weakest currency among majors, only above the Yen, while against Euro, EUR/GBP is back again to recent highs area, last at 0.8674, near 15-month highs level.
Forex Technical & Market Analysis: February 06 2013

Forex Economic Calendar
2013-02-06 11:00 GMT | Germany. Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (Dec)
2013-02-06 15:00 GMT | Canada. Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (Jan)
2013-02-06 21:45 GMT | New Zeland. NZ Unemployment Rate (Q4)
2013-02-06 23:50 GMT | Japan. Machinery Orders (YoY) (Dec)

Forex News
2013-02-06 05:21 GMT | GBP/USD quiet above fresh 5-month lows 1.5630
2013-02-06 03:48 GMT | EUR/USD inside its thin trading range 1.3572/96
2013-02-06 02:27 GMT | USD/JPY has a final capitulation feel to it now – RBS
2013-02-06 01:27 GMT | AUD/NZD prints fresh 29-month lows on poor Aus retail sales data



TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
--------------------------
EURUSD

HIGH: 1.35959 | LOW: 1.35609 | BID: 1.35631 | ASK: 1.35637 | CHANGE: -0.13% | TIME: 08 : 03:04



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Low

MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: An hourly chart retracement development continues to pressure the pair towards to next resistance level at 1.3599 (R1). Break above it is required to open way towards to next targets at 1.3619 (R2) and 1.3638 (R3). Downwards scenario: As long as price stays below the next resistance level our medium-term outlook would be negative. Next on tap is support level at 1.3555 (S1). Instrument might face next hurdle at 1.3536 (S2) and 1.3517 (S3) in case of positive retest here.

Resistance Levels: 1.3599, 1.3619, 1.3638
Support Levels: 1.3555, 1.3536, 1.3517

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GBPUSD

HIGH: 1.56656 | LOW: 1.56502 | BID: 1.56525 | ASK: 1.56536 | CHANGE: -0.04% | TIME: 08 : 03:05



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Down Trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Low

Upwards scenario: Markets simply ignored all supportive measures yesterday and formed clear downtrend signal on the hourly chart timeframe. Possibility of correction is seen above the high of the day at 1.5668 (R1). Only clearance here would open route towards to next recovery targets at 1.5683 (R2) and 1.5699 (R3). Downwards scenario: It is undeniable that further downtrend formation might get acceleration below the next support level at 1.5642 (S1). Loss here would suggest next intraday target at 1.5627 (S2) and any weakening below it would then be limited to final support at 1.5611 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5668, 1.5683, 1.5699
Support Levels: 1.5642, 1.5627, 1.5611

------------------------
USDJPY

HIGH: 94.055 | LOW: 93.455 | BID: 93.783 | ASK: 93.788 | CHANGE: 0.16% | TIME: 08 : 03:06



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Up Trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Low

Upwards scenario: Instrument showed excessive strength yesterday and we expect some stabilization ahead. However appreciation above the next resistance at 94.06 (R1) might provide a catalyst for profit taking And expose intraday targets 94.35 (R2) and 94.63 (R3). Downwards scenario: Important support level locates right at 93.54 (S1). Successful retest here would open route towards to next target at 93.24 (S2) and any further decline would then be limited to final support for today at 92.95 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 94.06, 94.35, 94.63
Support Levels: 93.54, 93.24, 92.95

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Currency Converter | Top ECN Forex Broker | Forex Demo Account | FXCC )

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 07 2013

MARKET OVERVIEW

Euro bloc faces acute challenges from rival central banks
Much is at stake in the Eurozone should the fabled ‘currency war’ be ultimately waged as the price will be paid in both growth and jobs amidst fresh tensions about the future of the bloc itself. Few would doubt the euro area has been routed in the latest monetary battles between countries printing reserves and depressing home currencies in part to retain an acute trade advantage in a world sapped of growth. In Asia, Japan’s plan to aggressively weaken the yen has been the proverbial warning salvo, however that merely counters the open-ended bond buying and dollar creation by the U.S. Federal Reserve, sterling printing in Britain or even Swiss intervention to cap the franc. It leaves the European Central Bank (ECB) as the last remaining constituent of the “Big Four” reserve currencies still unable or unwilling to generate new cash and sequester its exchange rate over time.

This point was underlined last month by early paybacks on what had been the ECB’s proxy printing plan of cheap long-term loans to euro banks (or LTROs) – repayments, which have lead to an untimely shrinkage of the ECB balance sheet as its economy shrinks, creeping short-term interest rates and a rising euro. In just three short months, the euro has now soared a staggering +20% against Japan’s yen, +8% on sterling and +7% on the US dollar – the latter compounding gains against a host of dollar-pegged, emerging currencies. Last month, ECB chief Mario Draghi pointed out that the euro’s trade-weighted index (TWI) has been better behaved and is still down more than +10% from its 2009 peaks. However, this euro index too has jumped +6% since November and is up almost +9% since Draghi’s “whatever it takes” speech in July consequently defused the bloc’s sovereign debt crisis.
Forex Technical & Market Analysis: February 07 2013

Forex Economic Calendar
2013-02-07 10:00 GMT | E.M.U. European Commission Releases Economic Growth Forecasts
2013-02-07 12:00 GMT | United Kingdom. BoE Interest Rate Decision
2013-02-07 12:45 GMT | E.M.U. ECB Monetary policy statement and press conference
2013-02-07 15:00 GMT | United Kingdom. NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) (Jan)

Forex News
2013-02-07 05:34 GMT | Will Draghi encourage EUR/USD run to 1.40?
2013-02-07 05:16 GMT | GBP/USD holds above 1.5630 ahead a busy day
2013-02-07 02:35 GMT | AUD/JPY unchanged around 96.40
2013-02-07 01:10 GMT | Aussie heaviness as worrying as Aus full-time jobs lost


TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
---------------------
EURUSD

HIGH: 1.35313 | LOW: 1.35033 | BID: 1.35293 | ASK: 1.35299 | CHANGE: 0.06% | TIME: 08 : 06:41



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High

MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: We expect busy session ahead due to the many important macroeconomic data releases. Upwards extension above the resistance at 1.3545 (R1) level would keep the bullish structure intact and validate our next intraday targets at 1.3564 (R2) and 1.3584 (R3). Downwards scenario: A failure to clear next resistance barrier would open the way towards the initial support level at 1.3517 (S1). Loss here might take the pair towards to eventual targets, located at 1.3497 (S2) and 1.3478 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 1.3545, 1.3564, 1.3584
Support Levels: 1.3517, 1.3497, 1.3478

------------------
GBPUSD

HIGH: 1.56705 | LOW: 1.56452 | BID: 1.56687 | ASK: 1.56696 | CHANGE: 0.07% | TIME: 08 : 06:42



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High

Upwards scenario: Neutral hourly studies point towards further consolidation, with a break required to spark stronger upside action. Our next resistance level is placed at 1.5679 (R1). Break above it would suggest our next initial targets at 1.5699 (R2) and 1.5718 (R3). Downwards scenario: Current market structure might lose its power if the price manages to overcome key support level at 1.5644 (S1). Any penetration below this level might determine medium-term negative bias and expose our targets at 1.5625 (S2) and 1.5606 (S3) on the way.

Resistance Levels: 1.5679, 1.5699, 1.5718
Support Levels: 1.5644, 1.5625, 1.5606

----------------------
USDJPY

HIGH: 93.648 | LOW: 93.294 | BID: 93.603 | ASK: 93.607 | CHANGE: -0.01% | TIME: 08 : 06:43



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Up Trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Low

Upwards scenario: Price action is looking for topside momentum on the medium-term perspective to resume initial upwards formation. Yesterday high offers a key resistive bastion at 94.06 (R1). If the pair manages to overcome it we expect further progress towards to initial targets at 94.37 (R2) and 94.67 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Signal of instrument depreciation would be created if USDJPY depreciates below the next support level at 93.24 (S1). We would suggest next interim targets at 92.95 (S2) and then aim at 92.64 (S3) for the possible corrective action ahead.

Resistance Levels: 94.06, 94.37, 94.67
Support Levels: 93.24, 92.95, 92.64

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( FX Central Clearing Ltd )

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 08 2013

ECB's Draghi sees the Eurozone recovering in second half of the year

The ECB Governing Council decided to keep the main interest rate unchanged at 0.75% at their December monetary policy meeting. Speaking at the press conference following the meeting ECB head Mario Draghi commented on the considerations underlying the decision. The president suggested that inflation should fall below 2% in the coming months and assured that inflationary pressures should remain contained. He said that economic growth would remain weak in the “early part” of 2013 and recover very gradually, along with the improving situation on financial markets. The recovery would be supported by the ECB's accomodative monetary policy stance, better external demand and easier financial market conditions.

Mario Draghi commented on the the liquidity situation of EU banks, which recently repaid €140.6 billion of the €489.2 billion obtained through LTROs, which reflects the improvement in financial market confidence. He nevertheless urged EU officials to carry on with the reduction of “both fiscal and structural imbalances and proceed with financial sector restructuring measures” which should boost confidence further. When asked about the recent appreciation of the shared currency and whether it could hurt recovery, the ECB chief answered that it could be an indication that confidence in the euro begun improving. He added that the central bank would continue to closely monitor money market developments.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/08022013/

2013-02-08 07:00 GMT | Germany. Trade Balance s.a. (Dec)
2013-02-08 13:15 GMT | Canada. Housing Starts s.a (YoY) (Jan)
2013-02-08 13:30 GMT | United States. US Trade Balance (Dec)
2013-02-08 13:30 GMT | Canada. Unemployment Rate (Jan)


2013-02-08 05:17 GMT | Where have all EUR/USD bulls gone?
2013-02-08 04:44 GMT | Long-running EUR/CHF uptrend unlikely - HSBC
2013-02-08 03:25 GMT | Kiwi at 0.87 by year end - BNZ
2013-02-08 01:49 GMT | GBP/JPY off fresh 3-year highs below 148.00

---------------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.34161 LOW 1.33817 BID 1.33980 ASK 1.33987 CHANGE 0.01% TIME 08 : 01:14



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Potential is seen for break above the resistance at 1.3420 (R1) today and develop some recovery from the initial downtrend formation. In such scenario we would suggest next target at 1.3447 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to 1.3474 (R3). Downwards scenario: Instrument has comfortably ranged and any further downside extension is protected now by the key support at 1.3371 (S1). Loss here is required to enable our initial targets at 1.3346 (S2) and 1.3319 (S3)

Resistance Levels: 1.3420, 1.3447, 1.3474
Support Levels: 1.3371, 1.3346, 1.3319

-----------------------
GBPUSD
HIGH 1.57372 LOW 1.57046 BID 1.57234 ASK 1.57246 CHANGE 0.08% TIME 08 : 01:15



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

Upwards scenario: Market sentiment has improved for the bullish oriented traders. Fresh high formed today offers next resistance level at 1.5738 (R1). In case of market appreciation above that level our focus would then be shifted to the higher targets at 1.5754 (R2) and 1.5770 (R3). Downwards scenario: We do expect some pull-backs on the downside below our next support level at 1.5715 (S1). Short-term momentum on the negative side might open the way towards to immediate supports at 1.5699 (S2) and 1.5681 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5738, 1.5754, 1.5770
Support Levels: 1.5715, 1.5699, 1.5681

---------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 93.733 LOW 93.195 BID 93.239 ASK 93.244 CHANGE -0.42% TIME 08 : 01:16



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

Upwards scenario: Market having failed to establish directional movement yesterday. Possible price strengthening might arise above the next resistance level at 93.58 (R1). Next interim target holds at 93.81 (R2) en route toward to our major aim at 94.05 (R3). Downwards scenario: Penetration below the support at 93.17 (S1) is liable to put more downward pressure on the instrument in the near-term perspective and start forming retracement formation. As a result our supportive meant at 92.93 (S2) and 92.69 (S3) might be triggered.

Resistance Levels: 93.58, 93.81, 94.05
Support Levels: 93.17, 92.93, 92.69

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Trading Education | ECN Trading Forex Account | FXCC )

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 11 2013

EU leaders reach 7-year budget deal

After more than 24 hours of negotiations, European Council President, Herman Van Rompuy, announced Friday that the 27 members of the European Union have reached agreement on the EU budget framework for the next seven years. Van Rompuy’s plan proposed to limit new spending commitments by Brussels to €960 billion, versus the €1.03 trillion originally sought by the European Commission and €12 less than the previous proposal. This way, the 2014-2020 budget agreement involves a €34 billion cut from current budget cycle, set at €994 billion. Analysts interpreted the agreement as a victory for the United Kingdom and net contributors to the EU budget.

It will be the first net reduction to the EU’s long-term budget in the bloc’s history, representing a decrease of around 3%on the last budget and shaving spending in areas from infrastructure to administration and scientific research. Even though the deal is done, the EU budget is not official yet, not until the European Parliament gives its approval, but leading legislators have already expressed opposition. The cuts agreed on Friday fell mainly on spending for cross-border transportation schemes, energy and telecommunications networks as well as the EU officials’ salaries. On the other hand, spending on rural development has been increased by €1.5 billion. While Rajoy welcomed the deal and said it is beneficial for Spain, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said budget deal combines growth and consolidation and it is a good sign for investors. She said all 27 members backed budget agreement.
Forex Technical & Market Analysis: February 11 2013

Forex Economic Calendar
N/A | E.M.U. Eurogroup Meetings
2013-02-11 18:00 GMT | United States. FOMC Member Yellen Speaks
2013-02-11 18:00 GMT | Canada. BoC Gov Council Member Lane Speech
2013-02-11 21:45 GMT | New Zeland. Electronic Card Retail Sales (YoY) (Jan)

Forex News
2013-02-11 05:47 GMT| EUR/USD faces calls for 1.3250; worst week since late June 2012
2013-02-11 05:08 GMT | GBP/USD frozen around 1.5800 handle
2013-02-11 04:26 GMT | AUD/USD dives under 1.0300
2013-02-11 03:35 GMT | GBP/JPY holding barely above 146.00



TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
--------------------
EURUSD

HIGH: 1.33909 | LOW: 1.33634 | BID: 1.33859 | ASK: 1.33863 | CHANGE: 0.17% | TIME: 09:43:47



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Instrument formed fresh high of the day recently and turned retail trader’s sentiment to the positive side. Further market rise would then be targeting resistance levels at 1.3408 (R1), 1.3436 (R2) and last one at 1.3462 (R3). Downwards scenario: We expect some consolidation from initial downside extension however. Possible price depreciation is limited to the key support barrier at 1.3351 (S1). Decline below it might resume weakness towards to our initial targets 1.3324 (S2) and 1.3298 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3408, 1.3436, 1.3462
Support Levels: 1.3351, 1.3324, 1.3298

-------------------
GBPUSD

HIGH: 1.58097 | LOW: 1.57771 | BID: 1.57790 | ASK: 1.57799 | CHANGE: -0.08% | TIME: 09:43:48



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium

Upwards scenario: Market tested positive side today and formed gradual ascending move. Next resistance in focus holds at 1.5821 (R1). If the break occur here we might see stronger move, targeting next attractive marks at 1.5836 (R2) and 1.5851 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside our reference point locates at 1.5791 (S1), decrease below it might enable bearish pressure, targeting 1.5777 (S2) and any further fall would then be limited to last support level at 1.5762 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5821, 1.5836, 1.5851
Support Levels: 1.5791, 1.5777, 1.5762

---------------------
USDJPY

HIGH: 92.743 | LOW: 92.357 | BID: 92.600 | ASK: 92.607 | CHANGE: -0.07% | TIME: 09:43:49



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium

Upwards scenario: Possibility of price progress is seen above the next resistance level at 92.74 (R1). Breakthrough here would suggest our interim target at 92.95 (R2) and then target at 93.17 (R3) acts as last supportive measure for today. Downwards scenario: In favor of bearish market participants market tone remains negative on the medium-term perspective. Our next support level aligns at 92.35 (S1). Price regress below it might encounter downside rally and expose our initial targets at 92.12 (R2) and 91.90 (R3).

Resistance Levels: 92.74, 92.95, 93.17
Support Levels: 92.35, 92.12, 91.90

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Currency Converter | Forex ECN Broker | Forex Demo Account |FXCC )

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 12 2013

S&P keeps Ireland rating at BBB+; Outlook revised up to stable from negative

The Standard and Poor’s rating services has maintained its Ireland rating at BBB+ but has revised upward the Irish outlook from negative to stable on the back of promissory notes exchange. Earlier on the day, BUBA’s J.Weidmann took ECB president Mario Draghi’s relay and is ‘verbally’ pushing the cross to the proximity of 1.3430 in the European evening. Weidmann commented that the euro would not be overvalued at current levels, and he emphasized than a lower exchange rate could derail in higher inflation.

For the London session ahead focus will be centered at UK CPI figures at 09:30 GMT, along with tentative BoE inflation letter, once RICS house price balance data was published early in Asia today showing a decline of -4%, slightly worse than previous at -1%, but still in an uptrend since late 2010. FTSE futures are pointing for a lower open, while Hong-Kong, Singapore and mainland China kept on closed over holidays.
Forex Technical & Market Analysis: February 12 2013

Forex Economic Calendar
N/A | United Kingdom. BOE Inflation Letter
2013-02-12 09:30 GMT | United Kingdom. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jan)
2013-02-12 15:30 GMT | E.M.U. ECB President Draghi’s Speech
2013-02-12 19:00 GMT | United States. Monthly Budget Statement (Jan)

Forex News
2013-02-12 05:46 GMT | USD/JPY on fresh 2.5 year high; North Korea conducts nuclear test
2013-02-12 05:42 GMT | GBP/USD slips to previous 5-month lows area, below 1.5650
2013-02-12 05:18 GMT | EUR/USD, 1.3250 or 1.35 firm candidates on next move
2013-02-12 05:08 GMT | Moody’s cuts outlook on advanced economies


TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
-------------------
EURUSD

HIGH: 1.34114 | LOW: 1.33779 | BID: 1.33860 | ASK: 1.33869 | CHANGE: -0.13% | TIME: 08 : 45:23



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: The high of the today offer initial resistance level at 1.3411 (R1). Penetration above that level might trigger recovery action and expose our resistive mean at 1.3436 (R2) en route towards to final target at 1.3462 (R3). Downwards scenario: Bearish pressure would stay in power while price is quoted below the both moving averages. Clearance of our next support at 1.3361 (S1) might enable downside forces and drive market price towards to initial targets at 1.3334 (S2) and 1.3307 (S3) in perspective.

Resistance Levels: 1.3411, 1.3436, 1.3462
Support Levels: 1.3361, 1.3334, 1.3307

----------------------
GBPUSD

HIGH: 1.56682 | LOW: 1.56415 | BID: 1.56587 | ASK: 1.56596 | CHANGE: -0.01% | TIME: 08 : 45:24



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High

Upwards scenario: Cable is consolidating after the losses provided yesterday. A break above the resistance at 1.5670 (R1) would allow to establish some pull pack formation. Our upside targets today locates at 1.5687 (R2) and 1.5704 (R3). Downwards scenario: Next challenging supportive barrier locates at 1.5640 (S1). Breakthrough of this level would open way for stronger downside expansion and could possibly trigger our initial targets at 1.5623 (S2) and 1.5605 (R3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 1.5670, 1.5687, 1.5704
Support Levels: 1.5640, 1.5623, 1.5605

-------------------
USDJPY

HIGH: 94.375 | LOW: 93.868 | BID: 93.979 | ASK: 93.986 | CHANGE: -0.36% | TIME: 08 : 45:25



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium

Upwards scenario: Local high, formed yesterday is the key point for further uptrend formation on the medium-term perspective. However even surpass of our next resistance at 94.21 (R1) might be sufficient to establish positive bias, targeting 94.46 (R2) and 94.72 (R3). Downwards scenario: Market decline below the support level at 93.75 (S1) might change short-term technical picture and shift market sentiment to the bearish side. In such scenario we expect next targets to be exposed at 93.51 (S2) and 93.26 (S3)

Resistance Levels: 94.21, 94.46, 94.72
Support Levels: 93.75, 93.51, 93.26

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 13 2013

Obama addresses congress at the SOTU speech

In the State of the Union speech, President Barack Obama addressed the Congress, with the main highlights found below. The text was obtained from Obama’s prepared full text speech and released moments before he came on stage. Obama first emphasized that the generation’s task is to build a strong middle class, which should be achieved through the government working ‘on behalf of the many’ not few. Referring to the soaring deficit, he said proposals will not increase deficit by ‘single dime’, with a government that acts smarter not bigger. Obama said ‘deficit reduction alone is not an economic plan.’

He ordered DHS to develop a real-time cybersecurity response. Obama also called for $1 Bln investment to create 15 manufacturing institutes; calls for overhauling corp tax code. Obama proposed ‘off-shoring tax’ to set minimum on offshore earnings, while also calling for a minimum wage to increase to $9/hour. With regards to the recent nuclear test conducted by North Korea, Obama said US to lead the world in taking firm action in response to North Korean threats, considering to strengthen US missile defense. The President of the US also unveiled plans to strengthen bilateral transatlantic trade deals with the European Union. Obama said: “Tonight, I am announcing that we will launch talks on a comprehensive Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership with the European Union – because trade that is free and fair across the Atlantic supports millions of good-paying American jobs.”
Forex Technical & Market Analysis: February 13 2013

Forex Economic Calendar
2013-02-13 10:00 GMT | E.M.U Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (Dec)
2013-02-13 10:30 GMT | United Kingdom. Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report
2013-02-13 13:30 GMT | United States. US Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)
2013-02-13 18:00 GMT | United States. 10-Year Note Auction

Forex News
2013-02-13 05:36 GMT | EUR/USD bulls regain control; break of 1.35 clarifies picture
2013-02-13 05:33 GMT | GBP/USD stalls the recovery below 1.5700
2013-02-13 04:38 GMT | USD/JPY break of 93.00 allows further losses
2013-02-13 04:23 GMT | AUD/USD breaks to fresh 5-day highs above 1.0350



TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
------------------------
EURUSD

HIGH: 1.34572 | LOW: 1.34375 | BID: 1.34469 | ASK: 1.34476 | CHANGE: -0.04% | TIME: 08:07:21



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: next hurdle on the upside penetration is seen above the yesterday high at 1.3475 (R1). If the price manages to overcome it we expect further acceleration towards to initial targets at 1.3503 (R2) and 1.3532 (R3). Downwards scenario: Market decline below the next supportive means at 1.3433 (S1) might trigger bearish pressure and enable lower target at 1.3407 (S2). Final support for today could be exposed at 1.3381 (R3) later on today.

Resistance Levels: 1.3475, 1.3503, 1.3532
Support Levels: 1.3433, 1.3407, 1.3381

-------------------------
GBPUSD

HIGH: 1.56885 | LOW: 1.56621 | BID: 1.56834 | ASK: 1.56845 | CHANGE: 0.14% | TIME: 08:07:22



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium

Upwards scenario: GBPUSD is approaching our next resistance level at 1.5688 (R1), keeping the retracement formation intact. The break here is required for the price appreciation towards to next target at 1.5707 (R2) and any further rise would then be targeting to 1.5726 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, medium-term tone remains negative and possible depreciation below the support level at 1.5661 (S1) would allow further declines. Our supports levels today lies at 1.5642 (S2) and 1.5623 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5688, 1.5707, 1.5726
Support Levels: 1.5661, 1.5642, 1.5623

---------------------
USDJPY

HIGH: 93.503 | LOW: 92.821 | BID: 93.096 | ASK: 93.100 | CHANGE: -0.40% | TIME: 08:07:23



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium

Upwards scenario: A negative market tone dominates on the hourly chart frame however further buying interest might arise above the key resistance at 93.35 (R1). Clearance here would suggest next intraday target at 93.57 (R2) and if the price holds its momentum we can expect an exposure of 93.79 (R3). Downwards scenario: Fresh low formed today limits recovery attempts for now. Next support level stays right below it at 92.81 (S1). Break here would suggest next target at 92.60 (S2) en route towards to final aim for today at 92.39 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 93.35, 93.57, 93.79
Support Levels: 92.81, 92.60, 92.39

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Training | Best Automatic Forex Trading Platforms | FXCC )

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 14 2013

The Real Threat from Spain’s Corruption Scandal

Investors worried about Spain’s political stability have been dumping their Spanish holdings and pushing up the country’s borrowing costs after the eruption late last week of a corruption scandal involving Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy. Until now, the government’s durability had been one of the few advantages that Spain held over fellow euro-area problem- case Italy, a country that has seen almost as many elections as Christmases over the past few decades and is about to stage another. In reality, the likelihood that the Rajoy scandal will force the collapse of the current right-of-center government is slim. But investors are right to be concerned, because political stability involves more than the survival of a country’s government — it also requires the trust of the electorate in the institutions that govern them. Allegations of corruption at the highest level are corroding that trust in Spain.

On Jan. 31, the Spanish newspaper El Pais published copies of what it said were ledgers from secret accounts held by Luis Barcenas, the former treasurer of the ruling People’s Party, which revealed the existence of a party slush fund. The newspaper said 7.5 million euros in corporate donations were channeled into the fund and allegedly doled out from 1997 to 2009 to senior party members, including Rajoy. The party has denied wrongdoing in a statement, and Rajoy reiterated that position over the weekend and again on Feb. 4, during a news conference with German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
Forex Technical & Market Analysis: February 14 2013

Forex Economic Calendar
2013-02-14 07:00 GMT | Germany. Gross Domestic Product n.s.a (YoY) (Q4)
2013-02-14 09:00 GMT | E.M.U. ECB Monthly Report
2013-02-14 10:30 GMT | E.M.U. Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (Q4)
2013-02-14 13:30 GMT | United States. Initial Jobless Claims

Forex News
2013-02-14 05:29 GMT | EUR/USD, sellers negate the 1.35 handle
2013-02-14 04:56 GMT | GBP/USD stalls the fall ahead of 1.5500
2013-02-14 03:57 GMT | USD/JPY still around 93.50 despite BoJ
2013-02-14 03:30 GMT | AUD/NZD feels selling pressure below 1.2250



TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
-----------------
EURUSD

HIGH: 1.34553 | LOW: 1.33823 | BID: 1.33935 | ASK: 1.33943 | CHANGE: -0.44% | TIME: 09:40:06



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High

MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Retail traders sentiment is currently on the bearish side however further price appreciation is possible above the resistance at 1.3414 (R1). Any upside actions above this point would then be targeting our resistances at 1.3433 (R2) and 1.3452 (R3). Downwards scenario: As long as price stays below the moving averages our medium-term outlook would be negative. Our next support level is seen at 1.3377 (S1). Any extension lower is being able to drive market price towards to our targets at 1.3359 (S2) and 1.3341 (S3) on the long run.

Resistance Levels: 1.3414, 1.3433, 1.3452
Support Levels: 1.3377, 1.3359, 1.3341

------------------------
GBPUSD

HIGH: 1.55425 | LOW: 1.55072 | BID: 1.55121 | ASK: 1.55129 | CHANGE: -0.18% | TIME: 09:40:07



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Down Trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High

Upwards scenario: After dipping lower yesterday we see potential of downside tendency recovery in near-term perspective. Next on tap resistance level at 1.5543 (R1) mark. Break here would suggest next targets at 1.5568 (R2) and 1.5593 (R3).Downwards scenario: On the other hand we still keep the downside extension in focus. Risk of further market depreciation is seen below the support level at 1.5502 (S1). Loss here would enable initial targets at 1.5480 (S2) and 1.5468 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5543, 1.5568, 1.5593
Support Levels: 1.5502, 1.5480, 1.5468

--------------------
USDJPY

HIGH: 93.711 | LOW: 93.132 | BID: 93.559 | ASK: 93.564 | CHANGE: 0.14% | TIME: 09:40:08



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Neutral
TREND CONDITION: Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium

Upwards scenario: Market comfortably moves in sideways mode on the hourly chart. If USDJPY gains momentum on the upside and rose above the resistance at 93.65 (R1), we expect next resistance to be exposed at 93.79 (R2) and 93.94 (R3). Downwards scenario: If the price failed to overcome our next resistance level we expect market easing below the support level at 93.39 (S1). Loss here would shift our technical outlook to the bearish and enable initial support levels at 93.24 (S2) and 93.09 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 93.65, 93.79, 93.94
Support Levels: 93.39, 93.24, 93.09

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex ECN Brokers List | Auto Forex Trading Account | FXCC )

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 15 2013

Eurozone tumbles deeper into recession

The preliminary Eurozone GDP numbers for the fourth quarter of 2012, published in the European morning, paint a rather gloomy picture of economic activity in the area: growth declined sharply by 0.6%, which makes it a third straight quarterly fall. GDP in the three largest Eurozone economies shrank more than expected. Germany saw a 0.6% decline, France contracted by 0.3% and Italy by 0.9%. Portuguese GDP plunged by 1.8%, which makes the country the worst performer in the Eurozone. Only Estonia and Slovakia registered growth in the area, but results for Ireland, Greece, Luxembourg, Malta and Slovenia are still pending. ING analyst Peter Vanden Houte comments: “While we expect a stabilisation in the first quarter and a weak recovery from the second quarter onwards, one has to acknowledge that a lot of things still can go wrong. The economic and political outlook in Spain and Italy remains uncertain, while the difficult bail-out of Cyprus could stoke contagion fears. Therefore it is certainly not a time for the ECB to lean back and relax.”

For the London session ahead key UK retail sales data at 09:30 GMT will surely take center stage for Cable traders, as “Consumer spending is the backbone of the economy as well as a key component of GDP,” says BK Asset Management managing director Kathy Lien. Data is expected to come above previous one, and around the +0.5% as consensus, while G20 meetings going on thru the weekend might provide headlines that shake markets either direction.
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/15022013/

Forex Economic Calendar
2013-02-15 09:30 GMT | United Kingdom. Retail Sales (YoY) (Jan)
2013-02-15 14:00 GMT | United States. Net Long-Term TIC Flows (Dec)
2013-02-15 14:15 GMT | United States. Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan)
2013-02-15 14:55 GMT | United States. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Feb)

Forex News
2013-02-15 06:00 GMT | GBP/USD clings to last support around 1.5500
2013-02-15 05:28 GMT | Selling EUR/USD, still a profitable short term strategy?
2013-02-15 05:23 GMT | USD/JPY finding bids ahead of 92.20
2013-02-15 04:58 GMT | Kiwi strength to stay – ANZ


------------------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.33721 LOW 1.33472 BID 1.33524 ASK 1.33532 CHANGE -0.07% TIME 08 : 23:26



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: The recent price acceleration on the upside suggests a possible move higher ahead. Next on tap is resistive barrier at 1.3400 (R1) on the way towards to higher targets at 1.3415 (R2) and 1.3428 (R3). Downwards scenario: If the market fails to stabilize on the positive side, we expect retest of our support level at 1.3373 (S1) in near term perspective. Successful penetration below it would enable initial targets at 1.3358 (S2) and 1.3344 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3400, 1.3415, 1.3428
Support Levels: 1.3373, 1.3358, 1.3344

--------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.55214 LOW 1.5484 BID 1.55071 ASK 1.55082 CHANGE 0.09% TIME 08 : 23:27



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Prolonged movement yesterday on the downside finally looks exhausted. Penetration above the fresh high at 1.5526 (R1) might keep bulls in play, targeting next resistances at 1.5547 (R2) and 1.0568 (R3). Downwards scenario: Bearish forces are possible below the next support level at 1.5502 (S1). Clearance here would suggest next target at 1.5481 (S2). If the price holds its momentum on the downside we suggest final target for today at 1.5458 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5526, 1.5547, 1.5568
Support Levels: 1.5502, 1.5481, 1.5458

--------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 93.117 LOW 92.25 BID 92.504 ASK 92.510 CHANGE -0.39% TIME 08 : 23:28



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Retracement development is limited to the next resistive structure at 92.81 (R1). Clearance here might shift trader’s sentiment to bullish side and open road towards to initial targets, located at 92.96 (R2) and 93.11 (R3). Downwards scenario: Fresh low formed today offers important support level at 92.25 (S1). Discounted value of USDJPY might push through this mark and enable next visible target at 92.11 (S2) en route to 91.96 (S3) later on.

Resistance Levels: 92.81, 92.96, 93.11
Support Levels: 92.25, 92.11, 91.96

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( FX Central Clearing Ltd )

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 18 2013

G20 statement settles on generalities; approval to keep selling the Yen?
The G20 weekend meeting and its final statement settled again on generalities, with key passages posing little risk to neither discredit nor criticize ongoing Japanese polices, where no specific mention was noticed. As Sean Callow, Westpac FX strategist, notes: “G20 statements always reflect the difficulty in reaching agreement among nations with often quite diverse policy approaches, settling on generalities with little risk of shaking up markets. Once again, for FX markets, the Moscow statement offered only a modest tweak compared to the Nov 2012 Mexico City statement”

Some key FX-related passages obtained from the statement can be found below: – “We will not target our exchange rates for competitive purposes”. – “We reiterate our commitments to move more rapidly toward more market-determined exchange rate systems and exchange rate flexibility…” – “We reiterate that excess volatility of financial flows and disorderly movements in exchange rates have adverse implications for economic and financial stability. In brief, as Forexlive editor Eamonn Sheridan, notes: “If policy is aimed at achieving results in the domestic economy then its OK. Of course, it is difficult to gauge whether domestic policies are, or are not, aimed at weakening the currency.”
Forex Technical & Market Analysis: February 18 2013

Forex Economic Calendar
N/A | China. FDI – Foreign Direct Investment (YTD)(YoY) (Jan)
2013-02-18 09:00 GMT | E.M.U. Current Account s.a (Dec)
2013-02-18 14:30 GMT | E.M.U. ECB President Draghi’s Speech
2013-02-18 23:50 GMT | Japan. BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Forex News
2013-02-18 05:37 GMT | EUR/USD faces worsening technicals/fundametals
2013-02-18 04:25 GMT | GBP/USD deepens below 1.5500
2013-02-18 03:20 GMT | Next RBA move likely coming in May – NAB
2013-02-18 02:42 GMT | USD/JPY stalls below 94.20 stops



TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
---------------------
EURUSD

HIGH: 1.33585 | LOW: 1.33254 | BID: 1.33447 | ASK: 1.33453 | CHANGE: -0.13% | TIME: 08 : 02:24



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Positive tone establishment is limited to the next resistive means at 1.3357 (R1). Break here is required to allow further strengthening towards to our immediate targets at 1.3379 (R2) and 1.3401 (R3). Downwards scenario: Immediate risk of further market decline is seen below the key support level at 1.3325 (S1). Medium-term downside expansion would then be targeting marks at 1.3303 (S2) and 1.3282 (S3) in perspective.

Resistance Levels: 1.3357, 1.3379, 1.3401
Support Levels: 1.3325, 1.3303, 1.3282

----------------------
GBPUSD

HIGH: 1.5508 | LOW: 1.54713 | BID: 1.54926 | ASK: 1.54934 | CHANGE: -0.12% | TIME: 08 : 02:25



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium

Upwards scenario: Price action looks mainly consolidative, though violation of our resistance at 1.5512 (R1) would be a signal of possible uptrend formation with next expected targets ahead at 1.5536 (R2) and 1.5559 (R3). Downwards scenario: We are not expecting significant price deviation on the downside today though break of next support level at 1.5471 (S1) might extend easing towards to expected targets at 1.5449 (S2) and 1.5425 (S3) levels.

Resistance Levels: 1.5512, 1.5536, 1.5559
Support Levels: 1.5471, 1.5449, 1.5425

----------------------
USDJPY

HIGH: 94.216 | LOW: 93.708 | BID: 93.990 | ASK: 93.998 | CHANGE: 0.58% | TIME: 08 : 02:26



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium

Upwards scenario: Any upside actions looks limited to resistance level at the fresh high – 94.21 (R1). Surpassing of this level might enable next target at 94.38 (R2) and any further gain would then be targeting last resistance at 94.54 (R3). Downwards scenario: Measures of support might be activating when the pair approaches the 93.83 (S1). If it continues to extend its weakening below it we expect next targets to be exposed at 93.68 (S2) and 93.51 (S3) later on.

Resistance Levels: 94.21, 94.38, 94.54
Support Levels: 93.83, 93.68, 93.51

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Free Forex Demo Accounts | Top ECN Forex Broker | Forex Blog | FXCC )

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 20 2013

Australia: RBA Sees the Medicine Starting to Take, But Is It?
After a year-and-a-half of cuts in its cash rate, Australia’s central bank kept rates unchanged at its recent meeting citing a firming in economic growth. We are not convinced and cannot rule out more rate cuts. Australia’s economy has outpaced many of the world’s advanced economies in recent years in addition to having mostly sidestepped the worst of the global slowdown of 2009. Having said that, the economy has not been without its challenges. More recently, these headwinds have come from abroad. The sovereign debt situation in Europe has had knock-on effects in other parts of the global economy, particularly in China, Australia’s number one export partner.

While the Australian economy continues to grow, the pace of that growth has slowed in each of the past two quarters. In fact, the 1.9 percent annualized growth rate in Q3 2012 was the second weakest outturn for economic growth in Australia since 2009. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has been acutely aware of the weakening in growth and has steadily reduced its benchmark lending rate, the cash rate, a total of 175 basis points over the past year and a half. The RBA’s decision to stay on hold at its meeting earlier this month surprised some market watchers who had anticipated another rate cut. Minutes from the February meeting of the RBA offer some perspective behind the decision to leave rates unchanged at 3.00 percent.
Forex Technical & Market Analysis: February 20 2013

Forex Economic Calendar
2013-02-20 07:00 GMT | Germany. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jan)
2013-02-20 09:30 GMT | United Kingdom. Bank of England Minutes
2013-02-20 13:30 GMT | United States. Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) (Jan)
2013-02-20 19:00 GMT | United States. FOMC Minutes

Forex News
2013-02-20 05:54 GMT | USD/JPY prints fresh weekly lows above 93.10
2013-02-20 05:27 GMT | EUR/USD escapes bear calls; next target at 1.35
2013-02-20 04:57 GMT | GBP/USD above 1.5420, off 7th consecutive daily lower low
2013-02-20 04:21 GMT | AUD/NZD rallies on RBNZ warnings



TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
------------------------
EURUSD

HIGH: 1.34337 | LOW: 1.33825 | BID: 1.34130 | ASK: 1.34138 | CHANGE: 0.17% | TIME: 08 : 01:29



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High

MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Market strengthening is the likely scenario after the price finally established directional movement yesterday. A local high has been set at 1.3434 (R1), break here is required to enable route towards to next targets at 1.3450 (R2) and 1.3466 (R3). Downwards scenario: Next support comes at 1.3396 (S1) level. Loss here might shift market sentiment to the bearish side and validate our next visible target 1.3380 (S2) en route towards to final support level at 1.3364 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3434, 1.3450, 1.3466
Support Levels: 1.3396, 1.3380, 1.3364

---------------------------------
GBPUSD

HIGH: 1.54508 | LOW: 1.54204 | BID: 1.54387 | ASK: 1.54398 | CHANGE: 0.09% | TIME: 08 : 01:30



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High

Upwards scenario: Bank of England Minutes at 09:30 GMT might bring additional volatility to the markets. Clearance of our next resistance level at 1.5454 (R1) would suggest next interim target at 1.5489 (R2) and if market holds its upside momentum last resistance could be found at 1.5524 (R3). Downwards scenario: Any downside fluctuations remains for now limited to the key support barrier at 1.5415 (S1). Only clear break here would be a signal of possible market easing towards to our next targets at 1.5381 (S2) and potentially even 1.5347 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5454, 1.5489, 1.5524
Support Levels: 1.5415, 1.5381, 1.5347

--------------------
USDJPY

HIGH: 93.822 | LOW: 93.137 | BID: 93.222 | ASK: 93.228 | CHANGE: -0.36% | TIME: 08 : 01:31



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High

Upwards scenario: Price tested negative territory today and currently lost -0.36 % in its price value. Never the less clearance of next resistive structure at 93.35 (R1) might open the way towards to our initial target at 93.50 (R2) and any further market rise would then be targeting 93.63 (R3). Downwards scenario: The base of the descending channel formation offers an important supportive mark at 93.11 (S1). Depreciation below it might shift medium-term tendency to the bearish side and validate next intraday targets at 92.97 (S2) and 92.82 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 93.35, 93.50, 93.63
Support Levels: 93.11, 92.97, 92.82

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 21 2013

FOMC Minutes: Some Fed officials consider eventual QE pullback
Minutes of the Fed’s January policy meeting showed several officials think the bank should be prepared to vary the pace of its asset purchases, depending on how the economy performs and its analysis of the costs and benefits of the program. As shown by the minutes, officials worried that the Fed ultra-loose policy could lead to instability in financial markets. The Fed plans to evaluate how the programs are doing at its next meeting March 19 and 20 where officials will consider major changes to its quantitative easing program. Some FOMC members consider the Fed might have to taper or even end its bond-buying programs before reaching the current goal of a substantial improvement in the labor market. However, others officials argued that ending QE too soon would damage the economy.

“A number of participants stated that an ongoing evaluation of the efficacy, costs, and risks of asset purchases might well lead the Committee to taper or end its purchases before it judged that a substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market had occurred,” the minutes said. During the meeting, several Fed officials expressed concern about the potential for excessive risk taking by investors due to the Fed’s accommodative policy. Officials even discussed the idea for the Fed to replace asset purchases with a promise not to sell assets for a longer period than currently envisioned. Kansas City Fed President Esther George dissented at the January meeting, citing concerns about financial stability. The Fed will meet next on March 19-20.
Forex Technical & Market Analysis: February 21 2013

Forex Economic Calendar
2013-02-21 08:28 GMT | Germany. Markit Services PMI (Feb)
2013-02-21 08:58 GMT | E.M.U. Markit Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
2013-02-21 13:30 GMT | United States. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jan)
2013-02-21 15:00 GMT | United States. Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) (Jan)

Forex News
2013-02-21 05:50 GMT | GBP/USD pounded below 1.5200
2013-02-21 05:43 GMT | USD, JPY enjoy follow through in Asia
2013-02-21 04:58 GMT | USD/JPY below 93.50 on more BoJ-related jawboning
2013-02-21 03:58 GMT | GBP/JPY selling off to fresh Feb lows

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
------------------
EURUSD

HIGH: 1.32892 | LOW: 1.32354 | BID: 1.32380 | ASK: 1.32389 | CHANGE: -0.34% | TIME: 08 : 00:18



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Down Trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High

MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Excessive losses provided yesterday clearly determined medium-term negative bias though rise above the resistance at 1.3306 (R1) might provide sufficient space for the appreciation towards to next target at 1.3332 (R2). Further market increase above it would face final resistive structure at 1.3356 (R3). Downwards scenario: Technically situation is clear. Fresh low at 1.3235 (S1) offers a key supportive barrier on the way of downtrend development. A dip below it would suggest next intraday targets at 1.3213 (S2) and 1.3190 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 1.3306, 1.3332, 1.3356
Support Levels: 1.3235, 1.3213, 1.3190

------------------------
GBPUSD

HIGH: 1.52395 | LOW: 1.51312 | BID: 1.51494 | ASK: 1.51505 | CHANGE: -0.55% | TIME: 08 : 00:19



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Down Trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High

Upwards scenario: New portion of macroeconomic data releases might increase volatility later on today. Our resistances at 1.5303 (R2) and 1.5355 (R3) could be exposed in case of possible recovery action. But first, price is required to overcome our key resistive barrier at 1.5250 (R1). Downwards scenario: Resuming of negative tendency might occur below the key support level at 1.5131 (S1). Break here would open road towards to next supportive measure at 1.5081 (S2) and final bastion could be found at 1.5031 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5303, 1.5355, 1.5250
Support Levels: 1.5131, 1.5081, 1.5031

------------------------
USDJPY

HIGH: 93.862 | LOW: 93.351 | BID: 93.427 | ASK: 93.432 | CHANGE: -0.16% | TIME: 08 : 00:20



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Neutral
TREND CONDITION: Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium

Upwards scenario: In current price setup it is hard to determine prevailing market direction. Our next resistance stays at 93.63 (R1). Market expansion towards to next targets at 93.77 (R2) and 93.91 (R3) looks reasonable if the price manages to overcome it. Downwards scenario: Pair has been trading sideways. Depreciation below the support at 93.29 (S1) level might likely push the pair lower and enable our interim target at 93.15 (S2). Any further market decline would then be limited to psychological support at 93.00 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 93.63, 93.77, 93.91
Support Levels: 93.29, 93.15, 93.00

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( ECN Currency Trading Blog | Forex Training and Tips | FXCC )

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 22 2013

Social unrest against austerity measures rises in Europe

Greece and Bulgaria are in the main focus on Wednesday as dissatisfaction with the tough austerity measures pushed the people in both countries to protest in the streets.S&P warned that Cyprus might be downgraded to CCC+ and finally default. BoE Minutes revealed that Governor Mervyn King was outvoted on QE extension. Angela Merkel and Mariano Rajoy were also on the wires. Greek workers took part in the first general strike of the year. They protested against the reduction of wages and tax increases. Gsee y Adedy, two main labor unions which organized the strike, believe that the measures adopted by the government aggravate the situation in the country where the unemployment rate reached 27%, while youth unemployment stands at 60%.

The violent protests in Bulgaria on Tuesday, suppressed brutally by the police, resulted on Wednesday in the resignation of the country’s government. PM Boiko Borisov announced the decision in the morning, attributing it to his disapproval of way the protesters were handled the previous night. Bulgarians have been expressing their opposition towards the latest increases in the cost of electricity and power monopolies. They have also been accusing politicians of corruption and showing dissatisfaction with the low living standards. Meanwhile, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said in the European morning that countries should not carry out active exchange rate policies. She also stated that the “euro between $1.30 and $1.40 is normal in the historical perspective of the euro”. Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy presented new fiscal reforms on Wednesday, and announced that steps will be taken in order to prevent and suppress corruption connected with financial activities of political parties. -FXstreet.com
https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/22022013/

2013-02-22 07:00 GMT | Germany. Gross Domestic Product s.a (QoQ) (Q4)
2013-02-22 10:00 GMT | E.M.U. European Commission Releases Economic Growth Forecasts
2013-02-22 13:30 GMT | Canada. Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (Jan)
2013-02-22 15:30 GMT | United states. FOMC Member Powell Speech


2013-02-22 05:31 GMT | AUD/JPY capped below weekly opening price 96.35
2013-02-22 05:20 GMT | EUR/USD, bearish storm set to continue?
2013-02-22 04:18 GMT | AUD/USD extends gains above 1.0320
2013-02-22 04:16 GMT | GBP/USD spikes to key 1.5320 resistance

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
----------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.32188 LOW 1.31828 BID 1.32144 ASK 1.32150 CHANGE 0.2% TIME 07 : 51:59

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: EURUSD has gradually climbed during the Asian session, having made fresh high but lately lost momentum. In terms of technical levels next resistance level could be found at 1.3233 (R1). Appreciation above it would enable higher marks at 1.3270 (R2) and 1.3308 (R3). Downwards scenario: Instrument has comfortably ranged after its initial bearish setup and any further downside extension is protected now by the key support at 1.3160 (S1). Loss here is required to enable our initial targets at 1.3124 (S2) and 1.3086 (S3)

Resistance Levels: 1.3233, 1.3270, 1.3308
Support Levels: 1.3160, 1.3124, 1.3086

-------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.53199 LOW 1.52438 BID 1.52870 ASK 1.52885 CHANGE 0.25% TIME 07 : 52:00

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: While instrument trades above the moving averages, it keeps immediate upside potential. Next hurdle is seen at 1.5323 (R1), break above it might extend gains towards to next targets at 1.5365 (R2) and 1.5406 (R3). Downwards scenario: The short oriented traders expected to be in play below the next support level at 1.5210 (S1) to confirm downside evolvement. Clearance of this level I required to open way towards to next targets at 1.5166 (S2) and 1.5120 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5323, 1.5365, 1.5406
Support Levels: 1.5210, 1.5166, 1.5120

-----------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 93.414 LOW 92.919 BID 93.282 ASK 93.287 CHANGE 0.18% TIME 07 : 52:01

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: USDJPY trapped to the consolidation phase. Fresh peak formed today offers a good resistance level at 93.42 (R1). Break here is required to take the pair towards to initial targets, located at 93.57 (R2) and 93.72 (R3). Downwards scenario: Relatively stable market is looking for priority in direction. Any prolonged movement below the support at 93.10 (S1) might enable downside forces and drive market price towards to next marks at 92.95 (S2) and 92.78 (S3) in perspective.

Resistance Levels: 93.42, 93.57, 93.72
Support Levels: 93.10, 92.95, 92.78

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Currency Trading Blog | Best ECN Broker | Forex Trading System | FXCC )

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 25 2013

Italy at the crossroads ahead of weekend elections
On 24 and 25 February Italy heads to the polls to vote in the general election, called two months before of the end of the statutory five-year term. The outcome is rather uncertain as many voters remain undecided as to who to choose. Before the opinion polls blackout on 8 February, surveys showed that the center-left party had the most support.

The frontrunners in the election are the head of the center-left Democratic Party (PD) Pier Luigi Bersani and center-right People of Freedom (PDL) party’s leader Silvio Berlusconi. Third in the opinion polls comes the comedian turned populist politician Beppe Grillo an his 5-Star movement (5SM). The current Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti leading the Civic Choice coalition party also takes part in the elections, but is not expected to claim victory, but rather be a “kingmaker”. The outcome of the election is crucial as the new government will have to make head against the fiscal crisis consuming the country and implement reforms in order to prop up the ailing economy. A failure to do so would have dire implications for Italy and consequently the entire Eurozone as providing a bailout for such a large economy might prove to be impossible. As chief economist at Maverick Intelligence Megan Green suggests in an article for Bloomberg: “The next government in Rome may be stable or reformist by Italian standards, but it will not be both.”
Forex Technical & Market Analysis: February 25 2013

Forex Economic Calendar
2013-02-25 09:30 GMT | United Kingdom. BBA Mortgage Approvals (Jan)
2013-02-25 13:30 GMT | United States. Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Jan)
2013-02-25 17:15 GMT | Canada. BoC Governor Mark Carney Speech
2013-02-25 21:15 GMT | Australia. RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speech

Forex News
2013-02-25 05:46 GMT | GBP/USD sinks beneath 1.5100
2013-02-25 05:22 GMT | Euro traders shift gaze to Rome
2013-02-25 05:02 GMT | USD/JPY recovers again above 94.00
2013-02-25 04:23 GMT | NZD/USD expected at 0.87 by year end – NAB



TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
--------------------
EURUSD

HIGH: 1.32137 | LOW: 1.31814 | BID: 1.32024 | ASK: 1.32031 | CHANGE: 0.14% | TIME: 08 : 02:49



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Neutral
TREND CONDITION: Sideways
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: We are not expecting significant volatility increase today however clearance of our next resistive barrier at 1.3220 (R1) is required to push the price towards to our next visible targets at 1.3244 (R2) and 1.3268 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of the further downtrend formation is seen below the 1.3179 (S1). With penetration here opens a route towards to our immediate support level at 1.3156 (S2) and any further price cut would then be limited to final target at 1.3130 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3220, 1.3244, 1.3268
Support Levels: 1.3179, 1.3156, 1.3130

----------------------
GBPUSD

HIGH: 1.51368 | LOW: 1.50734 | BID: 1.51297 | ASK: 1.51309 | CHANGE: -0.25% | TIME: 08 : 02:50



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium

Upwards scenario: GBPUSD is pointing to a negative market sentiment by losing -0.25% today. Though clearance of our resistance at 1.5167 (R1) might trigger recovery action towards to our initial targets at 1.5214 (R2) and 1.5260 (R3). Downwards scenario: Our next support level is seen below the local low at 1.5075 (S1). Any penetration below this level would increase likelihood of the downtrend development and suggest bearish priority in direction. Intraday support levels are placed at the 1.5030 (S2) and 1.4984 (S3) marks.

Resistance Levels: 1.5167, 1.5214, 1.5260
Support Levels: 1.5075, 1.5030, 1.4984

---------------
USDJPY

HIGH: 94.359 | LOW: 93.972 | BID: 94.175 | ASK: 94.182 | CHANGE: -0.84% | TIME: 08 : 02:52



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium

Upwards scenario: Market maintains a positive medium-term tone and currently is limited to our next resistive barrier at 94.36 (R1). If it manages to break it we would suggest next intraday targets at 94.50 (R2) and 94.65 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, break below the support at 93.96 (S1) would open a route for a recovery phase. Further market decline would then be targeting next supportive measures at 93.80 (S2) and 93.65 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 94.36, 94.50, 94.65
Support Levels: 93.96, 93.80, 93.65

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( FX Central Clearing Ltd )

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 26 2013

Italians lead the country to ungovernability
Italians are leading the country to the ungovernability, and after a neck-to-neck battle to take control over the lower house between the center-left Bersani’s party and Mr. Grillo’s five star movement, with the first claiming a marginal victory, the big problem now lies in the advance from the center-right Berlusconi’s group and Mr- Grillo in the Senate, where there is no majority by any party. According to the latest reports, which show a 99.9% ballot scrutiny conducted, Italy’s center-left Bersani won by a slim margin the lower house while the Senate is confirmed to be deadlocked. The failure to build a coalition between the center-left Bersani’s party in both chambers, will now make any austerity-led implementation laws taken by the uncertain government a slow and difficult process.

As the Wall Street Journal notes: “The result is that Italy may, over the next few weeks, try to form a temporary government backed by a grand coalition of left and right-wing forces with the sole aim of changing Italy’s electoral law and then going to a vote again as early as summer. It isn’t clear who would run such a short-lived government.” Overall, what the results show is a fragmented Italian society, where almost 1/4 of the population failed to turn up at the polling stations, but most worrisome of all is the situation in the Senate, where even with Monti’s support, neither Bersani’s nor Grillo’s party will be able to pass key laws it appears, thus heightening fears over the austeritarian path Italy had undertaken under Monti’s technocrat government being no longer viable. A temporary hung parliament through a grand coalition government? Possibility of a second election being called? At the moment the landscape in Italian politics is extremely uncertain. What appears to have gained clarity though, is that Italian bonds are likely to be dumped until the political mess clears up.
Forex Technical & Market Analysis: February 26 2013

Forex Economic Calendar
2013-02-26 10:00 GMT | United Kingdom. Inflation Report Hearings
2013-02-26 14:00 GMT | United States. Housing Price Index (MoM) (Dec)
2013-02-26 15:00 GMT | United States. Fed’s Bernanke testifies
2013-02-26 21:45 GMT | New Zeland. Trade Balance (MoM) (Jan)

Forex News
2013-02-26 05:36 GMT | EUR/USD to bounce on Bernanke testimony – Westpac
2013-02-26 05:20 GMT | GBP/USD above 1.52, against all
2013-02-26 04:45 GMT | EUR/JPY sellers win 38.2% fib battle; breaks sub 120.00 again
2013-02-26 04:08 GMT | USD/JPY returns to the downside below key 92.20



TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
---------------------
EURUSD

HIGH: 1.30889 | LOW: 1.30384 | BID: 1.30558 | ASK: 1.30567 | CHANGE: -0.04% | TIME: 09 : 00:22



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Down Trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Instrument stabilized after the losses provided yesterday and we expect neutral formation development prior further volatility increase. Intraday bull’s power might activate when the pair approach resistance level at 1.3092 (R1). Our next target is seen at 1.3118 (R2) and 1.3143 (R3). Downwards scenario: Penetration below the local low at 1.3036 (S1) might maintain a negative tone and prolong downtrend formation. Price devaluation would then be targeting our supportive measures at 1.3011 (S2) and 1.2985 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3092, 1.3118, 1.3143
Support Levels: 1.3036, 1.3011, 1.2985

---------------------------
GBPUSD

HIGH: 1.52188 | LOW: 1.51404 | BID: 1.51855 | ASK: 1.51864 | CHANGE: 0.17% | TIME: 09 : 00:23



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium

Upwards scenario: Instrument gained momentum, turning intraday bias to the positive side. Next resistance ahead is seen at 1.5220 (R1). Upwards penetration above it might drive market price towards to initial targets at 1.5253 (R2) and 1.5284 (R3). Downwards scenario: Opportunities for bearish oriented traders are seen below the important support level at 1.5153 (S1). Loss here would open door for the downtrend expansion towards to interim targets at 1.5118 (S2) and 1.5081 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5220, 1.5253, 1.5284
Support Levels: 1.5153, 1.5118, 1.5081

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USDJPY

HIGH: 92.745 | LOW: 91.744 | BID: 91.791 | ASK: 91.798 | CHANGE: -0.03% | TIME: 09 : 00:24



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Down Trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium

Upwards scenario: Instrument has over performed yesterday, being unable to made significant correction. Our focus returned to the resistive barrier at 92.59 (R1). If the price manages to surpass it, market participants have a chance to establish recovery formation towards to next targets at 92.89 (R2) and 93.18 (R3). Downwards scenario: Markets simply ignored all supportive measures yesterday and formed clear bearish bias. Risk of further decline is seen below the key support level at 91.74 (S1). Break here is required to enable lower target at 91.47 (S2) and 91.18 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 92.59, 92.89, 93.18
Support Levels: 91.74, 91.47, 91.18

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Best Forex Trading Platform | Forex ECN Broker | FXCC )

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 27 2013

Europe concerned with Italian election outcome
The post election stalemate in Italy, where no political group secured a clear majority in parliament, is causing concerns among European officials and a stir in the markets. Italian FTSE MIB fell by 4.60% on Tuesday while the yield on the country’s benchmark 10-year bond rose to 4.79%. Throughout the day various European officials have been expressing their concerns with the outcome of the elections. German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle stressed the need for a strong government in Italy, which would carry on with the reform plan initiated by Mario Monti. European Commission spokesman Olivier Bailly said that boosting growth and creating jobs should be the most important points on the new government’s agenda.

Spanish Minister of Economy Luis de Guindos said in the European morning that he hopes Italy would continue introducing measures to fight the crisis, while his French counterpart Pierre Moscovici expressed hope that Pier Luigi Bersani would form a government inclined to implement further reforms. Also BoE MPC members, speaking before the UK Treasury Committee, emphasized that a prolonged political instability in Italy might considerably harm the Eurozone economy.
Forex Technical & Market Analysis: February 27 2013

Forex Economic Calendar
2013-02-27 09:30 GMT | United Kingdom. Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q4)
2013-02-27 13:30 GMT | United States. US Durable Goods Orders (Jan)
2013-02-27 15:00 GMT | United States. Fed’s Bernanke testifies
2013-02-27 17:30 GMT | E.M.U. ECB President Draghi’s Speech

Forex News
2013-02-27 05:39 GMT | Euro speaks Italian these days, capire?
2013-02-27 05:18 GMT | GBP/USD threatening 1.5100 support
2013-02-27 04:41 GMT | USD/JPY Q2 target at 97 – JPM
2013-02-27 02:58 GMT | Gold higher on Bernanke testimony



TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
---------------------
EURUSD

HIGH: 1.30738 | LOW: 1.30413 | BID: 1.30661 | ASK: 1.30670 | CHANGE: 0.03% | TIME: 08 : 01:04



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Sideways
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High

MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Instrument consolidates after the initial price cut on the 25-02-2013. Our reference point for the upside penetration locates at 1.3092 (R1). Clearance here is required to enable higher targets at 1.3134 (R2) and 1.3173 (R3). Downwards scenario: Further downside extension is limited now to the important resistance level at 1.3036 (S1). Below here we see potential for the price acceleration towards to next initial targets at 1.2997 (S2) and 1.2957 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3092, 1.3134, 1.3173
Support Levels: 1.3036, 1.2997, 1.2957

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GBPUSD

HIGH: 1.51357 | LOW: 1.50804 | BID: 1.50831 | ASK: 1.50843 | CHANGE: -0.27% | TIME: 08 : 01:05



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Down Trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High

Upwards scenario: Corrective action might take a place above the next resistance at 1.5139 (R1). Break here would open route towards to higher target at 1.5180 (R2) and any further price advance would then be limited to 1.5220 (R3). Downwards scenario: Recently instrument tested negative side however it might face next hurdle on the important technical level -1.5072 (S1). Break here is required to open road for the downtrend resuming. Our intraday targets for today are 1.5032 (S2) and 1.4995 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5139, 1.5180, 1.5220
Support Levels: 1.5072, 1.5032, 1.4995

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USDJPY

HIGH: 92.261 | LOW: 91.627 | BID: 91.731 | ASK: 91.737 | CHANGE: -0.26% | TIME: 08 : 01:07



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Down
TREND CONDITION: Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High

Upwards scenario: Price finally stabilized after the initial market decline and currently is looking for priority in direction. Break above the fractal level at 92.27 (R1) is required to generate recovery action and expose our intraday targets at 92.64 (R2) and 93.03 (R3). Downwards scenario: As long as price stays below the next resistance level our medium-term outlook would be negative. Next on tap is support level at 91.39 (S1). Instrument might face next hurdle at 91.00 (S2) and 90.59 (S3) in case of positive retest here.

Resistance Levels: 92.27, 92.64, 93.03
Support Levels: 91.39, 91.00, 90.59

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Trading Software | ECN Trade Account | Forex Course | FXCC )

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Feb 28 2013

Moody’s: Euro zone debt markets vulnerable to further shocks
Moody’s rating agency continues to warn Euro area countries that debt markets in the region remain vulnerable to further shocks to investor confidence. Find below the main quotes from the official communique: “Market volatility in recent days proves that the euro area sovereign debt markets remain vulnerable to further shocks to investor confidence because of the limited fundamental changes in euro area countries’ economic indicators, debt trajectories or institutional reforms since last July.”

“The growth outlook for peripheral countries is still weak, and progress in reversing debt trajectories remains slow and halting. Political and implementation risks remain significant, with little evidence of cohesion among policymakers and a rising risk of complacency setting in as market pressure for reforms subsides. And while the introduction of the Outright Monetary Transaction facility by the European Central Bank has successfully reversed the rise in sovereign debt yields for now, the potential for further shocks remains, for example with investors in Greece (C) and Cyprus (Caa3, negative) still exposed to heightened default risk.” “Overall, for most euro area countries, the balance of macroeconomic, political and implementation risks as well as the ‘event’ risks of further shocks to confidence remain firmly to the downside, supporting Moody’s negative outlooks for most euro area sovereign ratings.”
Forex Technical & Market Analysis: February 28 2013

Forex Economic Calendar
2013-02-28 08:55 GMT | Germany. DE Unemployment Change (Feb)
2013-02-28 10:00 GMT | E.M.U. Consumer Price Index – Core (YoY) (Jan)
2013-02-28 13:00 GMT | Germany. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Feb)
2013-02-28 13:30 GMT | United States. Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q4)

Forex News
2013-02-27 13:52 GMT | USD/JPY falls after US durable goods orders
2013-02-27 13:50 GMT | EUR/USD back to 1.3085/90 after US data
2013-02-27 13:31 GMT | US: Durable Good Orders fell 5.2% in January
2013-02-27 12:38 GMT | GBP/USD easing from 1.5140 zone



TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
--------------------
EURUSD

HIGH: 1.31615 | LOW: 1.31284 | BID: 1.31468 | ASK: 1.31476 | CHANGE: 0.09% | TIME: 08 : 43:26



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High

MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Potential is seen for break above the resistance at 1.3163 (R1) today and develop some recovery from the initial downtrend formation. In such scenario we would suggest next target at 1.3189 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to 1.3214 (R3). Downwards scenario: Although we do expect some pull-backs on the downside below our next support level at 1.3132 (S1). Short-term momentum on the negative side might open the way towards to immediate supports at 1.3104 (S2) and 1.3076 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3163, 1.3189, 1.3214
Support Levels: 1.3132, 1.3104, 1.3076

---------------------
GBPUSD

HIGH: 1.51769 | LOW: 1.51589 | BID: 1.51683 | ASK: 1.51693 | CHANGE: 0.08% | TIME: 08 : 43:27



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Neutral
TREND CONDITION: Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: High

Upwards scenario: Market sentiment has improved for the bullish oriented traders. Fresh high formed today offers next resistance level at 1.5177 (R1). In case of market appreciation above that level our focus would then be shifted to the higher targets at 1.5219 (R2) and 1.5258 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of market weakening is seen below the key support at 1.5119 (S1). Loss here is required to allow further declines and expose our support barrier at 1.5080 (S3) en route towards to final target for today at 1.5039 (S3)

Resistance Levels: 1.5177, 1.5219, 1.5258
Support Levels: 1.5119, 1.5080, 1.5039

----------------------
USDJPY

HIGH: 92.668 | LOW: 92.157 | BID: 92.376 | ASK: 92.379 | CHANGE: 0.18% | TIME: 08 : 43:28



OUTLOOK SUMMARY: Up
TREND CONDITION: Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT: Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY: Medium

Upwards scenario: Market having failed to establish directional movement yesterday. Possible price strengthening might arise above the next resistance level at 92.66 (R1). Next interim target holds at 92.97 (R2) en route toward to our major aim at 93.27 (R3). Downwards scenario: Penetration below the support at 92.15 (S1) is liable to put more downward pressure on the instrument in the near-term perspective. As a result our supportive means at 91.85 (S2) and 91.54 (S3) might be triggered.

Resistance Levels: 92.66, 92.97, 93.27
Support Levels: 92.15, 91.85, 91.54

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )