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  1. #121
    HFblogNews
    Date : 21st April 2015


    HOW TO FIND HIGH PROBABILITY TRADES?






    In my analysis from April 15th I wrote: We could see Gold retesting the resistance levels at 1198 and 1208. The latter coincides with the upper Bollinger Bands and should price rally there we’d be looking for momentum reversal signals close to it.


    As we now know, Gold turned at the resistance and provided us with a great shorting opportunity!


    Join me in today’s Live Analysis Webinar and learn how to identify similar opportunities over the coming few days. I will teach you how to analyse the markets successfully and how to read price action when entering and exiting your trades.


    Twice a month we gather together to a Live Analysis Webinar to study the markets and recent price action. In these sessions I share my thoughts and analysis on currency pairs and teach our traders to understand what is important when looking for high probability trade setups. This is a great opportunity to watch and learn from what I share and get your questions answered. We’ve had excellent feed back from our traders on these sessions. I am convinced that you will benefit greatly by investing an hour of your time with the rest of us. Please, follow the link below and book your seat.


    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex



    Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

  2. #122
    HFblogNews
    Date : 22nd April 2015


    NASDAQ 100 FUTURES TRADING BELOW RESISTANCE.






    Nasdaq, Weekly:


    Nasdaq was the world’s first electronic stock market when it began trading in 1971. This is very fitting for a technology index that nowadays includes all the major technology names that have a global prescence. In HotForex MT4 platform this index can be traded under the name of USA 100. The biggest stocks in this index include technology names such as Apple, Microsoft and Google. As these stocks are investment driven (when businesses invest in computers, software and infrastructure these companies do well) their price behaviour can be seen as an indication of things to come for the whole of the stock market. Technology is also the heaviest weighted sector in the S&P 500 index which means that movements in technology shares and Nasdaq will have a significant impact on S&P 500. Let’s see how Nasdaq index has been trading lately and what can we learn from its movements.


    Since the end of 2012 this market has been trending strongly higher gaining over 60% since the end of 2012. Currently this index is trading close to this year’s highs just below the upper weekly Bollinger Bands. Nasdaq has moved sideways since the end of February and has found support from general region of November 2014 high. This has created a sideways move that is fairly similar to the sideways range that lasted from November 2014 to the beginning of February 2015. This suggests to me that this market is not weak but is slowly working its way higher.





    Nasdaq, Daily:


    Index is trading at the recent highs and therefore at resistance. Recent high at 4441.50 was able to resist the move higher this morning and index reacted lower at the time of writing. Stochastics, RSI and Money Flow index are right at or very close to overbought levels which means that taking long positions at current levels would be too risky. Market is very thin this time of day as the US main trading session is still hours away. This can make market more volatile than usually. The nearest daily support level is at 4320 while the lower Bollinger Bands are between this and the next support at 4259.





    Nasdaq, 240 min:


    The 4h chart reveals how Nasdaq has been moving higher in an upward channel whit the lower end of the channel coinciding with a pivot support at 4327.50. Now that index has broken the small bearish wedge that had developed overnight the next significant support level is in the region of 4327.50 to 4350 that coincide with the Bollinger Bands and the channel low. Currently price has attracted some buying at 50 period moving average but this should be considered as a minor support and should we get a rally to 4423 resistance and then a turn around to again to the south there is a good chance price will penetrate this support and move to 4350 or so.


    Conclusion


    In the longer term picture this market is trading close to the year 2000 highs and therefore momentum can be expected to be weaker than it has been over the year 2014. The Q1 2015 trading gives us some indication of what the price action might be like over the rest of the second quarter. Index has been moving sideways and then has broken above the previous resistance levels without huge rallies. Instead the next range has developed just above the previous one. This means that the support levels are close and this market might not be ready to have major correction lower but move gradually higher. As technology is the biggest (heaviest weighted) sector in S&P 500 it is likely that this lack of technical weakness will turn into strength with S&P 500 as well. Now that Fed is more dovish and crude oil has likely bottomed the energy sector stocks are recovering giving additional support for the US stock market.


    In short term Nasdaq is weak as it has not been able to move above the resistance level at 4441.50 but rather corrected lower. Even though there has been some buying at the 50 period MA the major support levels are near the rising trend channel bottom. I am looking for a move to 4350 and then follow minor time frames for buy signals. However, firs this market might rally a bit and test the 4423 resistance. Should we get a rally to 4423 resistance and then a reversal there is a good chance price will penetrate the 50 MA support and move to 4350 or so.


    Trade these levels only should the price action confirm my analysis. If you don’t know how to read price action, please join me to our free webinars and learn how to take your trading to the next level.


    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex



    Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

  3. #123
    HFblogNews
    Date : 23rd April 2015


    COFFEE FUTURES REACTING LOWER FROM RESISTANCE.






    Coffee, Weekly:


    The last time I wrote about market moves in coffee the coffee futures were trading at 152.65 and based on the price action I suggested price should move lower and gave $145 and $125 as my downside targets. Since then target one was hit and price has moved as low as $128.80, close to the target II at $125. The first level was penetrated without any effort but then it turned into a resistance that has kept price capped for almost two months. Price of coffee found support at 161.8% Fibonacci extension level just above my target II at $125 and had a close outside the lower Bollinger Bands. Since then we’ve seen this market moving sideways inside the Bollinger Bands with roughly equal highs at $147. Price has made higher lows suggesting pressure is building against this resistance level.





    Coffee, Daily:


    The 50 period MA is still pointing lower while price of coffee struggles to close and stay above the $144.92 level. Stochastics are overbought and price has created a shooting star candle right at resistance which coincides with 100% Fibonacci extension level. Also, a regression channel drawn from the November 2014 high comes into play here. Price is trading right at the upper end of the channel adding to the bearish picture. The next important support levels are at 136.80 and 131.95.





    Coffee, 240 min:


    Price has been trending higher in a channel since the April 14th low. Now that price is moving lower again the lower end of the channel could provide some support as the 50 period MA and lower Bollinger Bands are relatively close to it. The rising trendline is currently at $140.45 while the 50 MA is at $139 and the 1.5 stdv lower Bollinger Band is at 139.12. In addition, there is a level that used to be a resistance roughly at $138.20. Stochastics are approaching the lower end of the range.


    Conclusion


    This two month sideways move suggests that supply and demand are now more balanced than at the time of my previous analysis on Coffee. Price moved almost to my target level at $125 but then turned around and has been challenging the $145 in several occasions. This could imply that the market participants wanted to cover their short positions before this important $125 support level and are now looking to take the market higher but the latest price action suggests there is still more weakness to come in Coffee. Short term picture is also negative as price has reacted lower from the resistance. I am therefore in a ‘sell rallies mode’ and look to benefit from the downside momentum. Here are my short term targets: target 1 at $138.20 and target 2 at $132. If price breaks below the sideways range a longer term downside target 1 is at $115.


    Trade these levels only should the price action confirm my analysis. If you don’t know how to read price action, please join me to our free webinars and learn how to take your trading to the next level.


    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex



    Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

  4. #124
    HFblogNews
    Date : 24th April 2015


    TODAY’S CURRENCY MOVERS.






    EURUSD, Daily


    Earlier today THE Euro was the strongest currency against the US dollar with a gain of over 0.60%. This rally failed as EURUSD moved to a level where the upper Bollinger Bands and 50 day moving average coincided. Now the pair given up most of the gains and is hovering above yesterday’s close. The nearest daily support and resistance levels are at 1.0667 and 1.0900. If the pair closes below 1.0840, today’s candle will be a shooting star candle but there is some intraday 4h support at 1.0804 region (a previous resistance level) so price might fluctuate a bit more before finding direction.





    Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)


    GBP has been rallying against the dollar since yesterday as the BoE minutes suggested the bank might be raising rates over the coming three year period. NZD has been weak RBNZ since assistant Governor John McDermott said yesterday the bank will ensure that the monetary policy is stimulatory to support output growth above potential and help lift inflation back to target. He said that at present they are not considering any increase in interest rates.


    Main Macro Events Today


    Eurogroup leaders’ gathering: no great expectations in terms of breakthrough on Greece.


    The German Ifo index jumped to 108.6 in April: stronger than expected current conditions reading and rising confidence in the manufacturing sector, while retail sentiment fell back somewhat.


    US March Durable goods orders: strong headline print on durables, the ex-transport component disappointed.










    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex



    Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

  5. #125
    HFblogNews
    Date : 27th April 2015


    USD GAINING SLIGHTLY AGAINTS THE MAJOR CURRENCIES.






    EURUSD, Daily


    The pair found support from the 1.0804 intraday support and rallied a little bit higher on Friday before failing to penetrate the 1.0900 resistance. Now that we have the FOMC meeting coming this week it might well be that market participants aren’t prepared to make strong directional commitments before they’ve seen the Fed press release. Therefore getting through this resistance might be a bit difficult before this release. The 50 day SMA and upper Bollinger Bands are right above the resistance level and Stochastic Oscillator is overbought with the nearest daily support level currently at 1.0667. At the time of writing EURUSD is trading at 1.0828 support level. There isn’t much in terms of economic releases today. This could lead to subdued trading conditions in USD pairs.





    Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)


    USD is up against the majors but there are no single big movers in the USD pairs this morning. The same applies to most of the currency pairs with AUDCHF being an exception with 50 basis points move. After rallying strongly GBP has been slightly weaker against all the others but AUD. Sterling has been benefitting from the recent growth in the UK economy and now that the Fed has turned dovish it is attracting money. After the last week’s BoE minutes market participants expect the BoE to be among the first banks to raise rates while most central banks are looking to drive their currencies lower with loose monetary policies and quantitative easing. US data is expected to be soft in the second quarter as well which suggests that the will be no Fed rate hikes in the June meeting. Market participants look forward to Fed’s mid-week press release for further clues on how the Fed sees the US economy developing. It is likely that the tune will stay carefully dovish but there probably will be no further clarity for the timing of the timing of rate hikes.


    Main Macro Events Today


    German April import price inflation rose to -1.4% y/y: The previous figure was -3.0% y/y, weaker EUR is pushing prices higher.


    US Markit Services PMI (April)


    RBA’s Governor Glenn Stevens Speech


    Japan Large retailers’ Sales (March)


    Japan Retail Trade (y/y) (March)






    Please, click here to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex



    Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

  6. #126
    HFblogNews
    Date : 27th April 2015 (Second Analysis)


    EURNZD DAILY SHOOTING STAR AT RESISTANCE.






    EURNZD, Weekly


    EURNZD has been trending lower for the whole of the 2015 but last week rallied significantly on the back of comments from assistant Governor John McDermott. He said last week that the bank will ensure that the monetary policy is stimulatory to support output growth above potential and help lift inflation back to target. He also pointed that “At present, the Bank is not considering any increase in interest rates. Before considering any tightening in monetary policy we would need to be confident that increased capacity utilisation and labour market tightness was generating, or about to generate, a substantial increase in inflation”.


    This rally brought EURNZD to a resistance where a weekly pivotal close and 23.6% Fibonacci levels coincide. The pair has reacted lower on Friday after moving briefly above the Fibonacci level. Stochastics are moving higher from oversold levels after diverging for over the weeks before last. Nearest weekly support and resistance levels are at 1.3883 and 1.4290, while the next major resistance is at 1.4547.





    EURNZD, Daily


    The pair created a shooting star candle last Friday as it reacted lower from April 7th pivot candle and has since been moving sideways near Friday’s lows. Stochastics is very close to overbought levels and the 50 simple moving average is not that far away from the latest high and the same applies to the upper Bollinger Bands as well. Also, this move was a contra-trend move that took the pair to the upper end of the bearish price channel. Therefore it’s not a surprise that this market is reacting lower.





    EURNZD, 240 min


    Stochastics are turning higher from levels close to the oversold levels. This coincides with price reacting higher from a pivot support level close to the 1.4200. While one hour chart shows RSI diverging and turning higher the 4h chart suggests we could have a 4h hammer candle when in a bit more than one hour’s time. The current 4h candle would need to close above the mid-way of the current 4210 and 4264 range. This would indicate market participants trying to take the pair higher. However, upside is quite limited by the technical factors listed in the daily time frame analysis. The support area between 1.4014 and 1.4055 is a likely level to cause some buying and could therefore act as a target.


    Conclusion


    Judging from the technical picture upside in this market is limited. Price is trading close to a descending price channel high and it has already reacted lower from the channel top. The longer term trend is lower and Thursday’s rally was contrary to the main momentum. This suggests we should see weakness over the coming few days. Currently price has found some support from a pivot high (see 4h chart) which could turn into a short term strength but at the moment there isn’t much upside momentum either. This market is in a sell the rallies mode and support area between 1.4014 and 1.4055 is a likely level to cause some buying and could therefore act as a target.


    Trade these levels only should the price action confirm my analysis. If you don’t know how to read price action, please join me to our free webinars and learn how to take your trading to the next level.


    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex



    Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

  7. #127
    HFblogNews
    Date : 28th April 2015.


    TODAY’S CURRENCY MOVERS.






    EURUSD, Daily


    Yesterday the US Flash Services PMI came in at 57.8 in April, erasing much of the 2.1 point rise to 59.2 in March. It compares to 55.0 in April a year ago. This moved EURUSD up by 70 pips before the pair reacted lower from the upper 1.5 stdv Bollinger Band. Yesterday’s daily candle was a relatively narrow one as market participants are hesitant before the FOMC meeting that starts today. EURUSD is still trading below resistance levels (meaning the DXY trades above support). Next minor daily support at 1.0820 and resistance at yesterday’s daily high at 1.0934. As EURUSD is trading at resistance I don’t expect a lot of strength but rather subdued trading that could turn into weakness ahead of the FOMC meeting.





    Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)


    While USD is trading sideways at support one currency stands out of the crowd. This morning AUD has been strong against all the other currencies while at the time of writing the EUR has been relatively weak. After a quick overview of AUD paired charts it seems like Aussie dollar is trying to push through resistance levels. CAD is the weakest of the lot against the AUD and charts suggest that AUDCAD is in late stages of building a smallish bottoming formation. Last week’s candle was a hammer and even though the pair is at resistance there is a higher low in the four hour chart. This indicates AUDCAD is trying to push higher. Should the attempt be successful, the preferred way to trade the long side is to enter after pullbacks.


    Main Macro Events Today


    Japan retail sales: dropped more than expected in March compared to last year. Total sales declined 9.7% y/y versus a revised 1.7% y/y slide previously.


    UK Gross Domestic Product: Consensus estimate points to a y/y decline of 0.4% at 2.6% while last previous figure was 3.0%


    US April consumer confidence: the headline figure should reveal an increase to 104.0 (median 102.5) from 101.3 in March.


    FOMC Meeting: The US Fed meets on Tuesday and Wednesday. While no policy changes are expected, the focus will be on the statement and the nuances in the forward guidance language that we doubt will provide any clarity on timing of the first rate hike.






    Please, click here to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex



    Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

  8. #128
    HFblogNews
    Date : 28th April 2015 (Second Analysis)


    AUDCAD REACTING HIGHER FROM SUPPORT.






    AUDCAD, Weekly
    The pair has over the past two to three weeks been testing a support area between 0.9402 and 0.9482. This test was successful and the last week’s hammer candle now points to higher prices. Moves below the 1.5 stdv Bollinger Band were rejected by the market and we there has been no close below this band since December 2014. This suggests buying interest in this pair at levels below current price action. There is some resistance ahead though, as the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level (at 0.9578) coincides with the high of last week’s candle while February low at 0.9590 is not far above it.





    AUDCAD, Daily


    Since April 20th the pair has been making higher daily lows and AUDCAD is now approaching resistance level created by the last week’s high and descending trendline. Stochastics is also getting close to levels it turned lower (together with price) the last time. I expect this will slow the pair down and could even cause it to correct lower. Nearest major support level is at 0.9467 while the next resistance level is at 0.9576. The 0.9636 resistance level coincides with the upper daily Bollinger Bands and has the 50 day MA hovering above. This suggests the level could very well work as a target for swing trades.





    AUDCAD, 240 min


    Price has moved beyond a resistance level at 0.9544 but has since hit the descending trendline. Stochastics and RSI are overbought and price is trading between the upper 1.5 and 2.0 stdv Bollinger Bands. The important support and resistance levels are pretty much the same as in the daily picture. There is some support at 0.9544 but it is fairly close to a higher time frame resistance levels and therefore should be judged as a minor support.


    Conclusion


    AUDCAD is still the strongest currency today against the major peers but has many resisting technical factors right above the current price. In short term picture this market is overbought as evidenced by the oscillators in 240 min chart and price trading at upper Bollinger Bands. This suggests that those wanting to trade this market on the long side should be careful right now and look to enter trades after pullbacks at support levels. Should there be a good sized pullback to the proximity of current levels of 50 period MA in 4h chart (0.9493) we should look for buy signals as per my teaching at webinars. Obviously being the strongest of the lot AUD can keep on rising against CAD without giving us a low risk entry but buying at a resistance is a high risk strategy. If there is a possibility to buy in proximity of a decent support (eg at 0.9500) the 0.9636 could be a reasonable Target 1 for swing trades. My Target 2 is at the next daily resistance level at 0.9700.


    Trade these levels only should the price action confirm my analysis. If you don’t know how to read price action, please join me to our free webinars and learn how to take your trading to the next level.


    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex



    Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

  9. #129
    HFblogNews
    Date : 29th April 2015.


    TODAY’S CURRENCY MOVERS.






    EURUSD, Daily


    U.S. consumer confidence defied April gains in all other major confidence measures with a drop to 95.2 from a slightly revised 101.4 (was 101.3) in March, while cycle high was at 103.8 January. This measure was impacted by the recent bounce in gasoline prices and the petro-sector recession. This helped the USD to move lower and EURUSD higher into the resistance area. EURUSD is now trading above the 50 day SMA and inside the upper Bollinger Bands. Current price action takes place in proximity of the level (1.1035) that was able to turn the pair lower. Nearest support and resistance levels are at 1.0848 and 1.1035. EURUSD is moving higher for the 5th day in a row, which means that we are getting closer to the point where this market will correct lower. Therefore, price action around the release of FOMC statement should be monitored closely. This is the fourth time the market moves this high and towards the 1.1035 resistance after creating a higher low on April 13th. This lowers the probabilities of price reacting lower from the same resistance level. Therefore we should be careful and not take it granted that the market will turn lower from the same levels again. It could rally higher before reacting lower again. We should trade what we see, not what we expect.





    Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)


    This morning GBP has been strong and AUD weak. Sterling has advanced most against the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar while Australian dollar’s weakness has been evident across the board. This has a lot to do with the yesterday’s AUDUSD rally taking the pair to proximity of important resistance level at 0.8033. GBPAUD hit support yesterday at 1.9100 and is now reacting higher from the level. AUDCAD hit my 0.9636 target yesterday and is now reacting lower from the Bollinger Bands above it. AUDCHF has also reached a daily pivot and is ranging in intraday time frames.


    Main Macro Events Today


    NZ Business Confidence: Strong economic growth and low inflation expectations kept confidence at elevated levels even though the measure declined from 35.8% to 30.2%


    US Advance GDP q/q: The first quarter GDP growth is likely to be 0.8% in its first release (the Q4 2014 growth was at 2.2%). Market risk is to the downside as weaker report could delay Fed’s first rate hike.


    FOMC Statement: The Fed has indicated that it will stay data dependent. September is the first likely date for a rate hike.


    Federal Funds Rate: No changes expected.


    RBNZ Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Statement: On April 22ndRBNZ Assistant Governor John McDermott said the bank will ensure that monetary policy is stimulatory to support output growth above potential and help lift inflation back to target. He said that at present they are not considering any increase interest rates.





    Please, click here to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex



    Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

  10. #130
    HFblogNews
    Date : 29th April 2015 (Second Analysis)


    WHEAT BULLISH AT MAJOR SUPPORT.






    Wheat, Weekly


    US wheat hit five year low yesterday and bounced higher as traders covered the shorts. Over the last few weeks wheat has moved lower even with dryness in the southern Plains. Now with some rain in the south the dryness worries in the north west of the country could help this bounce to turn into an uptrend. Since failing to penetrate resistance at 544 in the beginning April wheat futures have moved lower. Now that weekly Stochastics are getting oversold price is trading right above an important support level. In fact, price has bounced from 466 support yesterday suggesting that there is more upside than downside potential in this market.





    Wheat, Daily


    Yesterday’s rally from 466 support created a bullish hammer candle while Stochastics are showing clear bullish divergence. A pivot low from beginning of March capped yesterday’s trading in wheat and price has since then been moving right below this 478 resistance. There is some resistance at 485’5 while the next significant daily resistance area has been created between 495 and 504 by Fibonacci retracement levels and a pivot candle. In addition, the 50 day SMA is hovering at 505’7 at the time of writing.





    Wheat, 240 min


    In intraday charts Stochastics is overbought which ties together with the price stalling at minor resistance (478’2). As the longer term (weekly) support is just at yesterday’s low it is likely that smaller time frame resistances like this will get broken. The 50% Fibonacci level coincides with the 485’5 level and therefore suggests that in the short term picture this retracement level is more significant than others. The last completed 4h candle is another hammer pointing to higher prices.


    Conclusion


    Wheat is trading above support created in 2010 and bounced significantly higher the last time it touched this level. Now price action indicates that US wheat will move higher over the coming days and weeks. My short term T1 at 485’5 and T2 at 500. For those interested in longer term trading the 500 level could well be T1 and 530 T2. This bullish view would be negated if price moved below the 466 support with no signs of quick recovery.


    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex



    Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

  11. #131
    HFblogNews
    Date : 30th April 2015.


    TODAY’S CURRENCY MOVERS.






    EURUSD, Daily


    EURUSD traded pretty much according to what I anticipated. I wrote yesterday: This is the fourth time the market moves this high and towards the 1.1035 resistance after creating a higher low on April 13th. This lowers the probabilities of price reacting lower from the same resistance level. Therefore we should be careful and not take it granted that the market will turn lower from the same levels again. It could rally higher before reacting lower again.


    The dollar plunged through the morning session, after much weaker Q1 GDP data dented sentiment, doubly so ahead of an FOMC announcement that was already expected to lean on the dovish side. EURUSD opened just under 1.1000, and made its way to 1.1188 highs ahead of the Fed. The pair eased back slightly ahead of the statement release, before falling back on the Fed’s downgraded economic outlook, and on general profit taking. The high of 1.1188 in EURUSD was the low of 94.75 in DXY. This low coincided with a previous low and a support level from March 18th. At the time of writing EURUSD is moving above yesterday’s high and approaching the next resistance.





    Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)


    The JPY strength was the theme earlier this morning. Weakest pairs throughout the morning were AUDJPY, CADJPY and NZDJPY. AUDJPY hit a resistance and is now reacting lower from it CADJPY is also reacting lower from a resistance but does not look as weak as AUDJPY. NZDJPY is trading at 50 SMA and close to lower Bollinger Bands and pivotal support. Now at the time of publishing this report it is the AUD weakness that dominates the picture while EUR has been rising against the majors with EURAUD up by over 1.5%.


    Main Macro Events Today


    NZ Official Cash Rate: OCR remained unchanged at 3.5%. According to governor Wheeler it would be appropriate to lower the OCR if demand weakens, and wage and price-setting outcomes settle at levels lower than is consistent with the inflation target.


    BoJ Monetary Policy Statement: BoJ left policy unchanged and maintained the Y80 tln annual increase in the monetary base.


    German Unemployment Change: Stabilising growth is helping labour markets across the Eurozone. German jobless numbers dropped 8K (median -10K) in April, which left the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate unchanged at 6.4%, as expected. The German economy is strengthening and jobless rates are at very low levels, which together with the pick up in demand will ensure sizeable wage gains this year.


    Eurozone CPI y/y: No big change expected. Previous figure -0.1%.


    Canadian GDP: A fall of 0.1% in February is likely after the 0.1% drop in January. Forecast risk is to the downside given the hefty declines seen across manufacturing and drop in wholesale. Energy remains the wildcard. The BoC expects flat GDP in Q1, so an as-expected report would roughly back that outlook and have no impact on the policy projection.


    US Unemployment claims:Initial claims data should reveal a 290k headline, down from 295k last week and 294k in the week of April 11th. We saw the usual seasonal volatility around the Easter Holiday and claims in April look poised to average a higher 292k from 285k in March and 206k in February.





    Please, click here to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex



    Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

  12. #132
    HFblogNews
    Date : 30th April 2015 (Second Analysis)


    EURGBP CHALLENGING 23.6% FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT.






    EURGBP, Weekly


    EURGBP has been moving higher since it hit my target level at 0.7022 in March. EURGBP had been moving too low for too long and had reached levels that acted as resistance in several occasions from 1998 to 2006. Now March monthly candle has created a doji while the April candle will be another doji if no spectacular price moves happen over today’s trading. This suggests that long term supply and demand are in relative balance at current levels.


    Providing this week’s candle closes in proximity of current price levels or higher we very likely have a higher weekly low and a new pivotal candle in weekly time frame. This low coincides with the upper end of downward regression channel. Stochastics is neutral reflecting the price action being close to half way of the recent price range. EURGBP is currently trying to challenge the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. A close above last week’s high implies probabilities for the pair moving to next weekly highs have increased.





    EURGBP, Daily


    The pair has moved above its 50 day SMA that coincides with a previous resistance level at 0.7236 while another technical factor coinciding with this level is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. These levels are fairly close to the midrange and therefore do not bear that strong predictive value but it would still a positive if we saw this market closing above the 0.7236 level. Nearest significant support and resistance levels in the daily chart: 0.7132 and 0.7326.





    EURGBP, 240 min


    Price has broken out of the descending regression channel and has since then moved above resistance levels that have now turned into supports. Stochastics is getting overbought so it shouldn’t be too long from now that we see retracements to support levels. Nearest support at 0.7213 should be an interesting level to look at for long signals in such a case while 0.7285 is the nearest more significant intraday resistance level.


    Conclusion


    There is an attempt to create a market bottom but this pair however probably needs more consolidation before it’s completed. While EURUSD has moved beyond the recent highs that resisted the price advances EURGBP is still below the same highs and therefore inside the range. These pairs have recently had fairly strong correlation, and should the EURUSD correct lower from a resistance it is likely to have a negative impact on EURGBP. If EURUSD corrects lower and tests support levels successfully it is more likely that EURGBP will bottom out. A close above last week’s high implies probabilities for the pair moving to next weekly highs have increased. In such case the 0.7376 to 0.7422 range would be a reasonable target for short term trades. Short term momentum is currently to the upside but price is nearing the 0.7286 resistance. The Greek uncertainty coupled with elections in the UK could bring more volatility over the coming days and weeks. As usual, it makes sense to look for sell signals at resistance levels and buy signals at supports.


    Trade these levels only if price action at the levels confirms my analysis. If you don’t know how to read price action, please join me to our free webinars and learn how to take your trading to the next level.


    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex



    Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

  13. #133
    HFblogNews
    Date : 1st May 2015.


    TODAY’S CURRENCY MOVERS.






    EURUSD, Daily


    Yesterday’s US reports were mostly good news for the economy, given a Chicago PMI climb to 52.3, a 34k initial claims plunge to a 262k new cycle-low that signals upside risk to our 220k April payroll estimate, and a firm 0.7% Q1 ECI rise that leaves a steep cyclical climb into 2015. The dollar rallied early in the session, following a 15-year low initial jobless claims print, and an uptick in ECI. After peaking at 1.1250 in London, EURUSD slipped to 1.1117 lows following the data. EURUSD was able to rally slightly higher again in the late night trading and topped at 1.1266 in proximity to the 1.1279 resistance I identified yesterday morning. The pair is trading above the upper Bollinger Bands and Stochastics are starting to move sideways. This suggests the market participants are acknowledging this market is getting overbought and is trading close to a resistance, after a six consecutive up days. EUR is strong across the board this morning but at some point reversion to mean kicks in and and this market will react lower. We should be following price action at resistance levels to get clues on when this might happen. Nearest daily support at 1.1035 and after 1.1279 resistance the next significant level is at 1.1534.





    Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)


    While AUD performance was a bit mixed earlier this morning it is now weakening especially against the EUR and GBP with the CHF also gaining against Aussie. GBP and EUR are strong across the board while the JPY is quite weak against majority of the currencies. EURJPY is the strongest of the lot at the time of writing with a performance of +0.71% while EURNZD has gained 0.68%. GBPJPY follows with a +0.57% performance. GBPNZD looks interesting with strong performance and still some way to go before it hits major daily resistance levels.


    Main Macro Events Today


    Chinese Manufacturing PMI: China’s official manufacturing PMI was 50.1 in April, as expected and identical to the 50.1 in March. The back to back readings leave this measure skimming just above the contraction/expansion level of 50.0 after it fell below in February to 49.9 and 49.8 in January.


    Australian PPI q/q: Q1 PPI rose 0.5% (q/q) after the 0.1% gain in Q4. The measure slowed down to a 0.7% y/y rate in Q1 from the 1.1% y/y growth rate in Q4.


    UK Manufacturing PMI: The April Markit manufacturing PMI survey is expected to come in at 54.6 while March figure was 54.4. It was fractionally above survey median for 54.3 and improving from February’s 54.1 reading. March figure was the third consecutive month of improvement, affirming that activity in the sector is reaccelerating after a soft patch in Q4 last year.


    US ISM Manufacturing PMI: April ISM is out Friday and is expected at 52.0 (median 52.0) from 51.5 in March and 52.9 in February. Overall, producer sentiment should have been firmer in April with the ISM-adjusted average of all measures increasing to 51 after a dip to 50 in March.





    Please, click here to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex



    Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

  14. #134
    HFblogNews
    Date : 4th May 2015.


    TODAY’S CURRENCY MOVERS.






    EURUSD, Daily


    EURUSD has reacted lower from the resistance level (1.1279) I pointed out in my previous Currency Movers reports. On Friday US April ISM remained stuck at 51.5, below median 52.0 (vs 51.5 in March) while U.S. construction spending fell 0.6% in March, (below median 0.5%) and US Markit final PMI eased to 54.1 in April. The absence of Tokyo and London centres will ensure thin trade today. Through to Friday, the euro had climbed for seven successive days, but looks likely for a pause now. Greece remains an issue. Despite signs that the government in Athens has adopted an improved attitude, news reports from weekend negotiations suggest that fundamental differences remain with creditors, particularly on pension reform and privatisation proposals. Next daily support level is at 1.1035.





    Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)


    At the time of writing Euro’s performance remains mixed while USD is only just slightly stronger than its peers. US Dollar Index is reacting higher from support level (94.91) I pointed out in my earlier reports but there has not yet been much movement which is evidenced by the above chart. The only exception is CHF that has been weak this morning almost across the board. EURCHF lagging behind the others as both currencies in this pair are reacting lower from a resistance. JPY slightly stronger than others with EURJPY reacting from a resistance. All in all there hasn’t been much movement this morning as Japanese and Brits are enjoying a day off.


    Main Macro Events Today


    Chinese HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI fell to a final 48.9 in April, down from the preliminary (or “flash) reading of 49.2 and the final 49.6 in March. The April figure fell short of expectations for little change from the preliminary report’s 49.2. Government’s stimulus efforts are falling short, with the government’s target for 7% GDP growth looking increasing optimistic. Further stimulus measures from the government and another rate cut from the PBoC are likely in store for the near term.


    Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI: The April Manufacturing PMI fell to 51.9 from 52.2 and the services reading to 53.7 from 54.2, which brought the composite down to 53.5 from 54.0. Indicators still point to healthy expansion. The overall EMU Markit PMI is expected to come in at 51.9.


    US Factory Orders m/m March factory orders are expected to grow 2.0%.





    Please, click here to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  15. #135
    HFblogNews
    Date : 4th May 2015 (Second Analysis)


    EURJPY AT RESISTANCE AND WITH ROOM TO FALL.






    EURGBP, Weekly


    As EURUSD moved higher last week, EURJPY rallied very strongly and reached the February highs. Last week’s close was inside the weekly pivot candle from February this year, roughly the same area that was earlier defined by October 2014 pivot low. As reaction to previous pivot levels and today’s price action now proves this area has psychological significance. The nearest support and resistance levels are 131.30 and 136.85. The 50% Fibonacci level coincides roughly with the 131.30 support. This is quite far away from the current price and therefore suggests current levels are good for those looking for shorting opportunities. Earlier today EURUSD has been reacting lower from a resistance while JPY has been slightly stronger than its peers across the board. With EURJPY also trading lower from a resistance this should be a good time to be bearish on EUR and bullish on JPY.





    EURJPY, Daily


    On Friday EURJPY hit resistance just above 135.02 and turned lower. This resistance was created by a pivot candle from February 11th and now price is trading 0.49% below the close from Friday. Stochastics is overbought and about to roll over while the pair has been trading outside the Bollinger Bands and is now edging close to the upper 2 stdv band. A close below the band would be a further confirmation of bearish mood in EURJPY. The nearest daily support level is at 131.29 with the 50% Fibonacci level and 50 day SMA not that far behind at 130.75 and 130.32 respectively. Movements below 38.2% Fibonacci level at 131.81 should be monitored for momentum reversal signals.





    EURJPY, 240 min


    As the pair has moved lower the Stochastic Oscillator has declined to overbought levels. However price is now trading below 134.23, a level that used to be an intraday support and should now act as a resistance. Nearest intraday support level is at 132.46 where lower Bollinger Bands and an old channel high coincide. The next support area consists of April 6th pivotal resistance area between 130.40 and 131.29. Currently the 50 period SMA is also inside area.


    Conclusion


    The pair is overbought in higher timeframes and in resistance which indicates it’s time for it to correct lower. At the time of writing EUR is weak against all the major currencies while JPY is holding up against all the others but CAD. This combined with the technical weakness in EURJPY suggests that the trading opportunities in this pair are in the downside. EURUSD being weak at resistance is also supporting the bearish view. My target one in for short term trades is at 131.50 and target 2 at 130.40.


    Trade these levels only if price action at the levels confirms my analysis. If you don’t know how to read price action, please join me to our free webinars and learn how to take your trading to the next level.


    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  16. #136
    HFblogNews
    Date : 5th May 2015.


    TODAY’S CURRENCY MOVERS.






    EURUSD, Daily


    On May the 1st I wrote: the EUR is strong across the board this morning but at some point reversion to mean kicks in and this market will react lower. EURUSD started turning lower that very same day and has been moving lower since. It is breaking intraday supports and honouring resistance levels. Stochastics are rolling over and price is trading inside the Bollinger Bands. At the time of writing the pair is at 23.6% Fibonacci level that coincides with April 30th daily lows. The 1.1035 to 1.1052 support area is a likely target on the downside if the 23.6% level is violated. Yesterday was light on economic releases. US factory orders bounced 2.1% in March, right in line with median expectations versus -0.1% in February.





    Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)


    As I suggested last week the the US Dollar index has been strong since DXY hit support at 94.91 and after a slow start it has moved higher over the last couple of days. The AUD strength that followed the 0.25% rate cut has been a surprise and has raised eye brows on Bloomberg TV this morning. Aussie dollar is strong across the board with EUR, CAD and CHF being the weakest currencies against it. EUR being weak against everything else probably isn’t any surprise to regular readers of Currency Movers report. EURUSD trading lower from a resistance level has been dragging the other EUR pairs lower with it and this has created trading opportunities in these pairs. One of them was EURJPY which I analysed in yesterday’s Multi Time Frame article. GBP pairs have not moved much yet but with the election looming just a couple days from now there could be some more volatility ahead. EURGBP looks interesting as it rallied so strongly over the last week. After hitting my target range of 0.7376 to 0.7422 the pair has turned lower and could provide further opportunities for short term traders with volatility likely staying high.


    Main Macro Events Today


    RBA Cash Rate: The RBA cut the cash rate by 25 bp to a record low of 2.0%, as was largely expected. A reference to the currency in the statement gets to the crux, that a further fall in the Australian dollar is necessary. The RBA would have been discomforted by last week’s surge in AUD-USD to a three-month high at 0.8075. The central bank also cites weakness in capital expenditure as a key risk, and notes that spare capacity will remain in the economy for some time.


    Spanish Unemployment is expected to drop by 64.8k compared to previous change of -60.2k.


    UK Construction PMI is seen to stay almost unchanged. Median figure points to a slight 0.2 point dip.


    CAD Trade Balance is projected to improve to a C$0.9 bln deficit in March from the C$1.0 bln shortfall in February.


    US Trade Balance is likely to increase by 25% to -$44.5 bln in March (median -$40.3bln) from -$35.4 bln in February.


    US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is expected to hold steady from 56.5 in April. This compares to a recent high of 58.8 in November.





    Please, click here to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  17. #137
    HFblogNews
    Date : 5th May 2015 (Second Analysis)


    EUR HAS BEEN MOVING LOWER. DO YOU KNOW HOW TO TIME YOUR SHORT ENTRIES?.






    Did you see how EURUSD turned from a resistance I pointed out to you well in advance but didn’t know how to trade the move? EURJPY is another pair with a great opportunity to short the market yesterday after my analysis. However, do you know how to do it step by step? Join me today to a Live Analysis Webinar and I will show you how to analyse the market and take advantage of high probability trade setups. I will also answer your trading questions live.


    Twice a month we gather together to a Live Analysis Webinar to study the markets and recent price action. In these sessions I share my thoughts and analysis on currency pairs and teach our traders to understand what is important when looking for high probability trade setups. This is a great opportunity to watch and learn fromwhat I share and get your questions answered. We’ve had excellent feed back from our traders on these sessions. I am convinced that you will benefit greatly by investing an hour of your time with the rest of us. Please, follow the link below and book your seat.


    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  18. #138
    HFblogNews
    Date : 6th May 2015.


    TODAY’S CURRENCY MOVERS.






    EURUSD, Daily


    Broad dollar weakness has kept the EURUSD on an upward trajectory following yesterday’s big U.S. trade deficit miss, which risks a negative outcome in revised Q1 GDP data. This is obviously a reason for the Fed to be cautious about the US economy and means the Fed will be seen more likely to push the first rate hike further in to the future. On the other hand this Friday’s U.S. jobs report for April could show a rebound from unexpected weakness in March and therefore be a reason for added volatility and a reaction to lower levels. EURUSD recovered the last two day’s losses yesterday after turning higher slightly above the upper end of my support range. The latest rally came despite a Greek government official, cited by Bloomberg yesterday, saying that a compromise in bailout negotiations cannot occur until the IMF and the European Commission reduce the number of red lines they’re demanding and resolve differences between them. Greece needs to roll-over 1.4 bln euros of debt on May 8th and pay 200 million euros in interest payments to the IMF. Should there be further glitches in the negotiations they could be translated into added volatility in euro pairs. Yesterday’s daily candle was a hammer right above a support area (former resistance) which suggested higher prices, and now the pair is approaching the 1.1290 resistance. As usual, we look to buy at supports and sell at resistances but this time we might well see a push higher (than 1.1290) and then a reaction from higher levels. The nearest resistance after 1.1290 is at 1.1356 while the nearest daily support stays at 1.1035 – 1.1052.





    Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)


    Today’s weakest currency has been NZD. At the time of writing this NZD is down against GBP by almost 1% and against the AUD and EUR approx. 1.40%. GBPNZD has been rallying after yesterday’s narrow range candle at support while AUDNZD continues the rally from yesterday. AUD started rallying yesterday morning after the RBA cut the rates by 0.25% and the market participants interpreted the action as the last rate cut the central bank will make. Now that NZD has been weak, let’s take a quick look a the NZD pairs. NZDJPY is trading daily Bollinger Bands after moving sideways for few days, AUDNZD has reached a resistance created by a pivot candle and the weekly 1.5 stdv Bollinger Band while GBPNZD has reacted lower from last week’s high at 2.0359. EURNZD has been trending higher but has been reacting lower this morning and NZDUSD is trading at lower daily Bollinger Bands. There will be a point at which strong runners have been moving too far too fast and will correct lower. Look for price action to confirm your trading ideas.


    Main Macro Events Today


    Australia retail sales rose 0.3% in March after the 0.7% m/m gain in February. The March gain was as-expected. Meanwhile, retail sales volumes increased 0.7% in Q1.


    HSBC China Services PMI from April came in slightly below expectations at 52.9 (vs consensus 53.1) but improved from March print of 52.3.


    Eurozone services PMIs beat expectations in rising to 54.1 in April, up from the flash estimate of 53.7 but slightly down on March’s 54.2. The composite PMI worked out at 53.9, up from the flash estimate of 53.5 but down on the 54.0 March figure, which was an 11-month high. Highlights from the national data include Germany’s services PMI dipping to 54.1 from the flash 54.4 figure and down from 55.4 in March, while the French services PMI fell to 51.4 from 52.4.


    Spain’s Markit April services PMI was outstanding and surged to 60.3 after 57.4 in March, surpassing the median forecast of 57.4 by a big margin. This adds to the growing line of encouraging data out of Spain.


    UK Markit services PMI is expected to ease slightly to 58.7 from 58.9.


    Eurozone Retail Sales for March expected to register some contraction and come in at 2.4% vs February 3.0%.


    ADP Employment Change April nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 220k, with a 210k private payroll gain while today’s ADP figure is expected to show a slight increase to 192k from previous 189k.


    FED Chair Yellen Speaks





    Please, click here to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  19. #139
    HFblogNews
    Date : 7th May 2015.


    TODAY’S CURRENCY MOVERS.






    EURUSD, Daily


    I wrote yesterday that we look to buy at supports and sell at resistances but this time we might well see a push higher (than 1.1290) and then a reaction from higher levels. The nearest resistance after 1.1290 is at 1.1356… This is exactly what happened in yesterday’s trading. EURUSD pushed above the resistance and yesterday’s daily candle closed at 1.1341 after touching my resistance level at 1.1356. EURUSD has been running higher despite persisting Greek uncertainties, which has seen the Greek 2-year yield push back above 21%. Broader dollar weakness has underpinned EURUSD amid a continued flow of soft U.S. data, including yesterday’s weak ADP jobs and productivity data (Nonfarm Productivity q/q -1.9%), which followed big U.S. trade deficit miss on day before. Should Greek government and Greece’s creditors fail to reach compromise, it would likely trigger a referendum, if not elections on whether to stay in the single currency. Such a failure to agree on a compromise would spark an explosion in Grexit fears. According to Fed Chair Yellen long term yields are at “very low levels”, and said that rate lift off could trigger a sharp jump in rates. She didn’t give any clues on just when the first tightening might happen but pointed to risks in the stock market as the valuations are “generally quite high” and that raising the Fed funds rate is likely to be followed by a spike in Treasury yields.


    This morning EURUSD has been trading in the proximity of the 1.1356 resistance level and has this far struggled to move decisively above the yesterday’s high of 1.1370. This increases the likelihood of EURUSD correcting lower. However, there are support levels fairly close and it is likely that a retracement into this bracket will attract buyers. I look to for buy signals between 1.1290 and 1.1223 with a target range at 1.1480 to 1.1534.





    Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)


    There has not been much movement in currencies overnight. Only a few pairs have had some movement while most are in the 20 – 30 basis point range. The only exceptions to this sleepiness are, EURCAD and EURGBP that have at the time of writing moved -0.41% and 0.38% respectively. CHF being a safe haven currency is attracting money as well. It has moved the most against GBP and AUD. on this election morning the UK Sterling has been slightly weaker than the other majors signalling that the market participants cautious before the election results are available.


    Main Macro Events Today


    UK Parliamentary Election: Pre-election polls have been remarkably consistent, putting the Conservative Party in the lead, but with support well short of an outright majority. This leaves a good possibility that a coalition government will formed.


    Australian Employment Change and Rate sank 2.9k in April by seasonally adjusted measure, well below the modest gain expected, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 6.2% from 6.1%.


    German Factory Orders rose 0.9% m/m, below market consensus, which hoped for a stronger rebound from the two months of contraction. Especially as current condition indicators in confidence indicators had been strong. Still, the return to growth coupled with still robust ZEW, Ifo and PMI readings confirms that the German economy remains on track.


    US Jobless Claims are expected to be 280k (median 279k) in the week-ended May 2. Continuing claims are expected to rise to 2,300k for the week-ended April 25. Forecast risk is downward, as there is risk of rebound after last week’s large decline and market risk for USD is likewise downward, as weaker than expected data could further delay rate hike expectations.


    Canadian Building Permits are expected to rise 1.0% in March (median +3.0%) after the 0.9% dip in February and 12.3% plunge in January.


    US Consumer Credit consumer credit for March is expected to increase $16.0 bln after a $15.5 bln gain in February.





    Please, click here to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  20. #140
    HFblogNews


    Date : 7th May 2015 (Second Analysis)


    COPPER TRADING AT RESISTANCE.






    Copper, Weekly


    In my previous report on copper (March 16th) I wrote that traders might want to be buyers near support levels rather than trying to find shorts as the Chinese premier Li Keqiang commented that the government will be ready to support the Chinese economy. The logic was that the hope of economic stimulus in China should support the price of copper. The price of red metal has since risen by 9.3% after testing the $2.55 support I identified in the same report. Then the $2.88 resistance created sizeable swing to the downside but was penetrated on a closing basis just few days ago. The world stock markets have been correcting lower pretty strongly this week.


    Over the last couple of months investors have also been reasoning that with ECB printing Euros fund managers would need to allocate money to commodities. This has supported metals and especially copper lately. Now however the global equity markets are looking soft and with such a risk aversion in place we might see the price of copper being capped over the medium to long term.The MSCI World index, a global benchmark for equities, has fallen out of the rising weekly regression channel and created a shooting star in the monthly time frame (see my @HF_Analysis, ie my tweets for charts). MSCI World has been a good indicator on stock market tops in the past and the current action in the index points to higher volatility that should then be resolved to lower equity prices over the rest of this year. This is not promising for the price of copper in long term.


    Currently copper is trading between support and resistance levels and it has reached proximity of descending long term trendline. Weekly lows from October last year at $2.95 resist moves higher. In addition, we have the 50 week simple moving average at $2.93, right at the at the current bid price. Stochastics are overbought and unless there is no strong movement to either direction today or tomorrow this week’s trading will create a doji candle. Should this week’s candle indeed become a doji the support at March high ($2.91) is more likely to be broken. The next weekly support level is at $2.83. If the $2.91 level holds then the next resistance is at $3.08.





    Copper, Daily


    Stochastics are overbought and now they are moving sideways as the last three days’ trading has been range bound. The support and resistance levels are pretty much the same as in weekly picture with $2.83 being the first level that is likely to attract buying should the 2.91 – 2.89 support break. After that the next levels to look at are the rising trendline and the $2.66 to $2.70 support range. However, if today’s trading finishes above the midway of the candle we have a candle that suggests further upward pressure. This would increase possibilities that the current consolidation is a bull flag that will be resolved in the direction of the original move. The next daily resistance levels are at 2.95, 3.01 and 3.08.





    Copper, 240 min


    Price has been finding support between $2.89 and $2.91 while the resistance is at $2.95 – $2.96 range. Such a tight range usually implies uncertainty in the market place and can lead to price reversing an earlier move. This far the bar lows have each been slightly higher than previous ones but should copper start making lower lows the downside risk would increase. Narrowing Bollinger Bands suggests that there will be a quick increase of volatility rather soon. At the time of writing Money Flow Index is oversold suggesting an intraday buy opportunity.


    Conclusion


    Copper is trading between a support and a resistance. The first reaction lower from this resistance area (in March) was quite strong creating a huge weekly shooting star candle. Now that the price has been able to move further into the resistance and has stayed above the March high we need to follow the price action closely to see if this support will hold. If today’s trading finishes above the midway of the daily candle we have an indication of further upward pressure. This would increase possibilities that the current consolidation is a bull flag that will be resolved in the direction of the original move. The next daily resistance levels are at 2.95, 3.01 and 3.08. However, please remember that because price is at longer term resistance easy money for longs has been made and long trades at current levels are not high probability trades. As a general rule I do not like to be a buyer close to higher timeframe resistance levels but would rather like to see a correction to daily support levels where I would be looking for price based confirmation for the long side bias. However, those wanting to trade aggressively short term or intraday could consider buying at levels close to intraday supports at 2.89 to 2.91 with less than usual gearing. If price breaks below the 2.91 support, we should be looking for short term opportunities on the downside (as per my teaching in the webinars) with targets at daily and weekly support levels. Also, the publication of US NFP report on Friday is getting near and this should be factored into all trading decisions.


    Janne Muta
    Chief Market Analyst
    HotForex



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