"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


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  1. #1
    ValdisTF

    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis




    Dear all forum users!


    As you already know, TradeFort company obtained an international license IFSC/60/256/TS/14.


    Due to that fact, TradeFort has successfully re-branded and since 29th of June works under a Fort Financial Services brand. We have tried to maximally improve our fundamental and technical analysis of financial markets.


    We hope, that you will appreciate the analysis we provide. We are looking forward to hear your comments and suggestions.


    Thank you for working with TradeFort and welcome to the international brokerage Fort Financial Services!


    Fort Financial Services - Citadel of Trading



  2. #2
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    07.07.2014


    Fundamental analysis


    The last week end was very rich on the macroeconomic statistics. The EUR/USD came under pressure amid the positive macroeconomic data from the United States. The Non-Farm index came significantly better forecasted medians at 288 thousand, besides the upwards revised data for May and April. The overall unemployment rate was also declined by 0.2% to 6.1%, as the hourly wages were increased by 0.2%. Such the strong data point us to a strong U.S. economic growth in the second quarter and now the Fed should decrease pessimism about the prospects for economic development.


    The single European currency selling was caused by ECB President Mario Draghi, who said that the low interest rates in the euro area would remain for a long time. As a result, "bears" took control under the situation.


    After the negative data publication on the service sector PMI index for the UK in June the investors decided to take profits on long positions. However, we saw a strong decrease in the GBP/USD on Thursday. Despite the positive statistics from the U.S. labor market - the "Bears" were able to push quotes only to the level of 1.7104, after which there was a technical rebound. Sales in the euro / pound cross - course, which set a fresh level for at least the past 20 months, were supported by demand for the British currency against U.S. dollar.


    The "Bulls" have made triumph on the USD/JPY for three consecutive days. The positive release non-farm cheered the participants to open the long dollar positions. Against this backdrop, the dollar/yen was able to overcome the figure 102 and consolidate above the resistance level of 102.16.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    The single European currency has collapsed against the dollar as it was under the double pressure. Less strong impact on the euro was provoked by the M. Draghi statements that the regulator is ready for the "unconventional measures" if it appears that the annual inflation rate in the euro area will remain at a low level more than it was expected. The second pressure source had a much stronger impact – the information about the strong jobs growth in the U.S. labor market has caused the European currency sharp falling.


    The sellers managed to break below the rising trend line of 1.3610 at the high volume and thereby exit the uplink direction in which the trade lasted four weeks.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.3570, the next one is at 1.3520. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3610, the next one is at 1.3670.


    We have a strong sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Kijun-Sen is directed downwards. The cloud has stooped growing and is changing the direction.


    The downward movement will be until the price is below the Kijun-Sen.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The indicator is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to short with the first target – 1.3570. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can start a deal to the level of 1.3520.





    Pound (GBP)


    The British pound continues to demonstrate its stability and maintains its position near the high levels reached earlier. The latest news impacted the currency. However, the pressure on sterling was of transient nature and as a result the "cable" closed the trading against the dollar by the almost opening prices - with only minor losses.


    Currently, the price is trading above intermediate resistance level of 1.7165, which is now managed to break up. Together with the level breakthrough the buyers failed to update this week maximum level of 1.7177


    The price is finding the first support at 1.7160, the next one is at 1.7115. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.7220, the next one is at 1.7265.


    There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Kijun-Sen is horizontal, the Tenkan-Sen is directed upwards. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen.


    The MACD histogram is in the positive territory. The histogram is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    We believe the growth will be continued. The first target is the level 1.7220. We do not exclude a corrective bounce to 1.7115.





    Yen (JPY)


    The Japanese currency showed the strongest fall against the dollar among majors. The messages from the U.S. labor market helped the pair to overcome the strong technical resistance levels to rise almost to the previous month maximum. In terms of prospects the yen decrease will be resumed under the U.S. statistics impressions influence.


    The key turning moment was the downward trend line breakout of 101.95. The trend break occurred at the volume that in the longer term points toward the continued growth.


    The price is finding the first support at 101.60, the next one is at 101.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23.


    The price is above the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen. The Tenkan-Sen is directed upwards, the Kijun-Sen is horizontal. The cloud is directed upward.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The histogram is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    The break of 101.90 was at high volumes, this break opens the way to the next resistance located at 102.70. Still we believe there will be the roll backs to 101.60.





    Franc (CHF)


    The manufacturing sector activity expansion continued in Switzerland in June, as it showed the report prepared by Credit Suisse. The analysts attribute the activity increase with export sales, which are supported by the regulation of the euro against the franc by the SNB.


    The U.S. June labor report publication supported the dollar, pushing it to grow. The U.S. Department of Labor message was clearly encouraging for the "bulls" on the dollar. The Non Farms increased by 288 thousand in June, not by 215 thousand as was expected, and the results of May and April were revised upwards to 224 thousand from 217 thousand and 304 thousand against 282 thousand, respectively. The unemployment level fell in June, despite the fact that this parameter changes were not expected.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.8920, the next one is at 0.8880. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.8950, the next one is at 0.9000.


    The price is in the Cloud and under Chinkou-Span, we have a weak buy signal.


    The upward movement remains until Kijun-Sen is above the price.


    MACD is in a positive territory. The indicator is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    We recommend to long to 0.8950.








  3. #3
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    08.07.2014


    Fundamental analysis


    The Euro market is in a narrow range against the liquidity backdrop. From the published macroeconomic statistics we can highlight only the orders volume in the German industry. The index went much worse forecasted medians at - 1.7% on a monthly basis, indicating a decrease in the capacity utilization. This in turn is a negative factor for the European region as Germany is the Eurozone locomotive.


    The business activity index in the Germany construction sector in June fell to 15-month low which was due mainly to a fall in new orders. The ECB representative Noyer said that the ECB was ready to take all necessary measures to achieve the inflation level of 2%.


    The most important event in the USA will be the last Fed meeting protocols publication on Wednesday.


    The sales in the EUR/GBP cross-course support demand for GBP/USD not allowing the "bears" to take a technical correction to the short-term overbought background. After the British currency price drop to around of 1.7030 last week - the "bulls" are back on the market and are willing to open long positions.


    The investors took profits in global equity markets after a sharp rise during the week. In this regard as well, we have seen the partial long positions closing on the USD/JPY, which led to a small correction after upside quotations growth for 3 days in a row.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    Last week session the euro selling was continued, as the single currency recorded losses against the "greenback", while were less ambitious than the previous day. Obviously, the emotions caused by the U.S. Labor Market report publication already influenced the euro/dollar rates and the ECB M. Draghi statements that the preparations for the quantitative easing is underway launch work now. This may cause the unconventional measures introduction to stimulate the economy and, consequently, influence a prolonged impact on the market.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.3570, the next one is at 1.3520. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3610, the next one is at 1.3670.


    There is a confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen. The Cloud is directed downwards.


    The MACD indicator is in the negative territory.


    Trading recommendations


    The potential decrease target is the resistance level of 1.3610. The potential rebound target is the level of support 1.3570 that could lead to the south trendline movement.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The British pound continues to show a resistance to all the news coming from the outside market. Last Friday the sterling closed trading on opening prices against the dollar after a multidirectional consolidation in a narrow range. The pound support continued to provide good results for the economy, as evidenced by activity indicators, published on the week. PMI in all economy sectors - manufacturing, construction and services, had recognized that recovery, as new construction recorded a growth spurt.


    The British Pound continues to actively grow up, breaking on its way the temporary resistance. At this point, such resistance is represented by the inclined line of 1.7125, above there is an ongoing auction.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.7115, the next one is at 1.7050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.7160, the next one is at 1.7220.


    There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen.


    The MACD histogram is in the positive territory. The indicator is decreasing.

    Trading recommendations



    The potential growth targets are the resistance levels 1.7200, 1.7250.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The pair is being traded lowering. Obviously, the other day of the U.S. long weekend the short-term investors decided to take profits and even a slight increase in the Nikkei index didn’t push the market to the increase the propensity to take risks. The dollar/yen is likely to grow due to the Central Bank policies polarity of these countries, and also in the "hawkish" statements character from the Fed leaders


    The trading is within rectangle levels of 101.30 - 102.70. Another approach to the strong support level of 101.30, which for the six months was knocked the price upwards was fallowed by a bounce.


    The price is finding the first support 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 102.60.


    There is a confirmed and weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen.


    The MACD indicator is in the positive territory.

    Trading recommendations



    The volumes are decreasing not supporting neither northern nor southern movement. If the buyers get to the mark 102.70 at low volumes we expect a consolidation with a further price bounce upwards.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The dollar/franc will consolidate with a tendency to increase. The pair will stay with the support of a positive attitude to the dollar and the market demand for the Swiss currency in the growing euro/franc and declining franc/yen. We expect the June data on unemployment in Switzerland and Swiss National Bank gold reserves.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.8920, the next one is at 0.8890. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.8950, the next one is at 0.9000.


    There is a non-confirmed and weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen.


    The MACD indicator is in the positive territory.

    Trading recommendations



    We advise to long with the first target - 0.8975. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can start a deal to the level of 0.9000.






  4. #4
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    09.07.2014


    Fundamental analysis


    This week the EUR/USD is within a narrow range 1.3575-1.3608. The industrial production releases in Germany and Spain in May showed a significant decrease that confirms the serious structural problems in the European region. Nevertheless, the euro ignored the weak reports and after a moderate price drop - after the American traders coming we saw a technical rebound.


    The 10-year bonds yields fell on Monday from 2.64% to 2.62%. Meanwhile, the employment trends index (ETI) in the U.S. Conference Board's continued the growth in June for the second month in a row and rose to 119.62.


    The euro rose slightly after four days decrease amid the growing sentiment among the Eurozone investors, who improved after two months decrease, which was due to the ECB's new measures on the economy stimulation and expectations improving for the global economy.


    The short positions closing in the euro/pound cross-course put the pressure on the GBP/USD on a background of the empty macroeconomic calendar from the UK and the U.S.


    The sales that were observed on the world's leading stock markets, which together with the decrease in the 10-year U.S. bonds yields weighed on the USD/JPY. There wasn’t any important macroeconomic statistics from Japan and the market participant fully copied the trading dynamics for the Japanese stock market.






    Technical analysis


    Euro


    General overview


    The single European currency grew slightly against the dollar and actually leveled losses it had last week. The weak economic data from Germany did not stop the euro bulls and as well as the ECB members statements signaling the need to increase the monetary policy easing.


    Almost a month the EUR/USD bounces from the level of 1.3595. This level was broken down once, but the breakthrough had not been continued for long. The reverse return above the price level was followed by a strong growth.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.3570, the next one is at 1.3520. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3610, the next one is at 1.3670.


    There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory.


    Trading recommendations


    The downtrend is being continued. The target is 1.3570.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The pound is stable and continues to stay near the high levels that had been reached earlier. The pound fell slightly the other day, but it is due to technical factors that continue to influence the market developments through the strong resistance.


    The upward trend was stopped at the resistance level of 1.7175, from which there was a short-term price down pullback. The main rollback target is the support level of 1.7115, which was twice tested for a strength.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.7115, the next one is at 1.7050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.7160, the next one is at 1.7220.


    There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen.


    The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory.


    Trading recommendations


    The rising trend line is at 1.7115 support that is an additional obstacle.


    If the breakthrough does happen the level of 1.7175 rebound is expected. The 1.7175 break will open the way to 1.7200, 1.7250.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The yen grew up. Obviously, the fact that traders chose the yen was due to an optimism fall on stock markets, as well as due to the U.S. "Treasuries" yield decrease. We remember the BoJ quarterly report, which announced a moderate economic recovery pace and conservation assessment for the all nine country regions.


    The price is finding the first support 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 102.70.


    The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Kijun-Sen.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The indicator is decreasing showing the sell signal.


    Trading recommendations


    The price consolidation at 101.60 is a good sign for the price upward rebound. The main target is the level of 101.23.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The franc has not changed significantly against the U.S. dollar and strengthened against the major currencies last week after the unexpectedly strong labor market data. The dollar slightly regained its position against the franc after the pair decreased to the level of 0.8860.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.8920, the next one is at 0.8890. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.8950, the next one is at 0.9000.


    There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Kijun-Sen.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The histogram is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise long positions. The goal is 0.8975. After overcoming the first target buyers can go to the level of 0.9000.






  5. #5
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    11.07.2014


    Fundamental analysis


    This week main event was the Fed last meeting minutes publication. Before the Fed minutes publication the major pairs were in a lateral trend – the investors took a waiting position. The market participants wondered what the inflation debate will bring which had shown a slightly growth above the target level in the last report. However, the FOMC members could not find a single direction on the priority issue - one part of the monetary regulator leadership expressed concern with a stable low inflation, the other on the contrary, expect a more rapid consumer price index growth.


    Against this background, we observed the U.S. currency sales against its major competitors, the gold quotations growth and the "bullish" sentiment in the stock markets.


    The data showed an unexpected decrease in the UK industrial manufacturing and the industrial production and hinted that the economic recovery may not be as strong as expected. The reports made investors get rid of sterling to lock in profits after the currency rose to six-year high level against the U.S. dollar at the end of last week.


    The quotes received impetus from the Japan data published during the Asian session.


    The positive Japan payments balance in May amounted to 552.8 billion yen after the April value of 187.4 billion yen, despite the fact that the growth was forecasted only to 170 billion Japanese yen. Some support was rendered by the Eco Watchers data: the optimism index regarding the current economic situation in Japan was in June $ 47.7 against $ 45.5 in May, which can generally be seen as a positive signal.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The important economic data from Europe and other regions absence, as well as minutes of U.S. meetings yield expectations caused the continued range trading on the euro/dollar. The hopes that the activity will return to the market amid the politicians speeches have not been justified - neither speech the ECB’s President Draghi nor his colleagues, members of the ECB Governing Board B. Kerr and P. Pratt did not change the situation. The ECB functionary's statements concerned largely the power centralization topics in the region and its authority strengthening to force EU governments to reform their economies to recovery.


    The situation has been changed after the FOMC minutes publication - the euro rose as it became known that the document did not have anything about a possible rate increase.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.3570, the next one is at 1.3520. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3610, the next one is at 1.3670.


    There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form the “Golden cross”.


    The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory.


    Trading recommendations


    If the price consolidates above 1.3610 the next target will be the resistance located at 1.3670.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The British pound strengthened against the dollar in yesterday's trading. The effect on the sterling as well as on the euro had a message from the Fed. During the session the pound was under pressure from the dollar. The pound sales were provoked by the housing prices data from Halifax which showed that the price index fell by 0.6% m/m in June after rising +4.0% m/m previously and Britain Retail Consortium (BRC) report announced the annual fall indicator retail prices continuation which coupled with the price dynamics in the housing market has contributed to the doubt mood, waiting the rate hikes in the UK.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.7115, the next one is at 1.7050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.7160, the next one is at 1.7220.


    There is a confirmed and weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span.


    The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement.


    The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory.


    Trading recommendations


    The sterling growth gave the buyers the opportunity to get closer to the last week maximum the resistance of 1.7160. The volumes around this level decline, however, due to the fundamental data, the northern trend is likely to continue.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The Japanese currency was under the general market sentiment pressure. Initially, the yen declined against the dollar, on the risks of a monetary policy possible imminent tightening in the U.S., and then grew when the Fed protocols disappointed "bulls" on the dollar and sharply reduced the U.S. "Treasuries" yields. As a result, the dollar/yen trading was closed almost on the opening prices.


    The price is finding the support 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 101.60.


    There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead cross”.


    The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price shows a downward movement.


    Trading recommendations


    The yen strengthening against the greenback is expected in the short term, lowering the price to 101.00 - 101.20.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The Swiss franc strengthened against the dollar on the U.S. currency general weakening, caused by the FOMC minutes publication. The document, in particular, noted that, if the current trends is preserved the economy the FOMC representatives would decide to finish the asset purchases program in October.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.8920, the next one is at 0.8890. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.8950, the next one is at 0.9000.


    There is a confirmed and weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”.


    The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to open short positions with the target 0. 8880. This level overcoming will enable sellers to target the level of 0.8850.






  6. #6
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

    17.07.2014

    Fundamental analysis

    We could see the multidirectional majors movement the other day. The negative ZEW business climate release in Germany coupled with euro/pound cross-course sales cheered the "bears" to open the short positions on the EUR/USD.

    The ZEW index fell to 27.1 points in July, showing the lowest level since December 2012. If the investors and analysts look pessimistic at the eurozone's leading economy it means that the region problems are really strong. In the U.S. trading session midst Fed head held the speech in Congress. Janet Yellen still adheres to the loose monetary policy assuring market participants that the inflation rise in the recent months should not be regarded as the uptrend beginning. The investors expected such comments so the pair started selling fast due to Ms. Yellen performance.

    The GBP/USD was able to breakthrough the two-week range due to the June CPI index positive release. The June UK inflation showed growth to the level of 1.9% year on year, which triggered the "bulls rally" on the British currency. The inflationary pressures intensified the market participants' expectations on the earlier BoE monetary - credit policy tightening amid the pound significantly strengthened its position in relation to the dollar.

    The BoJ head Mr. Kuroda speaking at a press-conference after a meeting on monetary - credit policy said he expected the economic growth return to the positive territory in the 3rd quarter. It was also indicated that the price current growth seemed to be well balanced and there is no reason for a strong dollar strengthening now. After Fed head statements completion we saw the increase in the U.S. 10 - year Treasuries yield, which also supported the moderate demand for the U.S. dollar.




    Technical analysis

    Euro (EUR)

    General Overview

    The euro/dollar remained under the pressure. The euro disorder was provoked by the ZEW disappointing data. The Euro sales were carried out amid the Fed reports. The brief euro buying against the dollar was observed when the retail sales release went significantly worse forecasted medians. In fact, the ZEW Report pointed to the Germany investor confidence drop in July for seventh consecutive month.

    The price is finding the first support at 1.3520, the next one is at 1.3480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3570, the next one is at 1.3610.

    There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory.

    Trading recommendations

    After the trend line 1.3520 breakthrough the way to the support 1.3480 will be opened. Meanwhile we expect a consolidation and a short term bounce upwards.



    Pound (GBP)

    General Overview

    Technically, the British returned to the market leaders and became one of the majors on the yesterday's session having made some profit against the dollar. The sterling found support from the newly arrived UK economic data. The economic statistics publication announced the UK inflation accelerating and added the belief to investors that the BoE would be forced to raise rates before the end of this year

    The price is finding the first support at 1.7115, the next one is at 1.7050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.7160, the next one is at 1.7220.

    There is a non-confirmed and weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

    The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory.

    Trading recommendations

    We expect the 1.7160 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.7220.



    Yen (JPY)

    General Overview

    The Japanese currency also fell against the dollar. However, it is worth noting that the yen sales were not as active as they could be in this situation, when the Japan stock market experienced growth and the Fed chief's statements positioned investor optimism on the dollar. Perhaps the reason is the stock market good sentiment lack and resumed U.S. government bond yields falling. In addition, the BoJ decisions could form the pair’s pessimism.

    The price is finding the first support 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 102.70.

    The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement, and the Kijun-sen – horizontal and form a “Golden cross”.

    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is going up.

    Trading recommendations

    We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 102.23.



    Franc (CHF)

    General Overview

    The dollar strengthened after Ms. Yellen said that interest rates would rise sooner if the situation on the labor market improves faster than expected. Nevertheless, the Fed chairman also said that if the economic recovery would be disappointing, the monetary policy would remain accommodative.

    The price is finding the first support at 0.8950, the next one is at 0.8920. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9000, the next one is at 0.9035.

    There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is going up.

    Trading recommendations

    We advise to long with the first target - 0.9000. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can start deals to the level of 0.9035.





  7. #7
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    18.07.2014


    Fundamental analysis


    The U.S. currency strengthened its position against its main competitors, the dollar DXY basket finished the trading day at around 80.56. Institutional investors actively open the short positions which causes a decrease in the single currency along the entire market. The PPI index in the United States for June showed an increase for 0.4%, which was a pleasant surprise for tarders and confirms the inflationary processes development. That inflation has caused debate within the Fed about raising the federal funds rate as inflationary pressures will play into the "bulls" hands on the dollar. The euro/dollar remained under pressure during the day amid the negative background.




    The GBP/USD was traded in a narrow range after soaring the positive CPI data on Tuesday. The National Bureau of Statistics has published several controversial UK labor market reports for May. The unemployment rate showed a reduction to the level of 6.5 with the UK salaries strong reduction as a negative factor for the inflation.


    The quotations growth on the world's leading stock markets supported the moderate demand for USD/JPY. The U.S. corporate reporting season in the United States kicked off quite well - all companies announced the results of its activities for the 2nd quarter showed results better than market expectations that support the demand for corporate paper in the world.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General Overview


    The euro was under the dollar pressure the last session and closed the day with relatively strong losses. Apparently, the market has completed the J. Yellen speech analysis before U.S. lawmakers and finally imbued with the idea that the Fed is close to tighten the policy, while the ECB is heading for further easing.


    The strong support level of 1.3570 breakthrough led to working out the next target - the past month minimum level of 1.3520. The level was reached with lower volumes that directly speaks for downward trend relief.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.3520, the next one is at 1.3480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3570, the next one is at 1.3610.


    There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Clound.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.3570. After breaking 1.3570 the buyers may go to 1.3610.





    Pound (GBP)


    General Overview


    The British pound spent yesterday's trading in a narrow sideways range against the dollar and closed at opening prices. The strong employment data in Britain noted the unemployment rate decrease in June to 6.5% from 6.6%, with the significant applications number reduction for unemployment benefits - 36 thousand instead of the expected -27 thousand after 33 thousand in May did not provok the directed activity growth in favor of sterling.


    The price consolidation happened at around 1.7140 in the middle of two important levels of 1.7170 and 1.7100


    The price is finding the first support at 1.7115, the next one is at 1.7050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.7160, the next one is at 1.7220.


    There is a non-confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement, and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory.


    Trading recommendations


    We believe the falls can be continued now. The first target is the level 1.7050. We do not exclude the growth to 1.7220.





    Yen (JPY)


    General Overview


    The dollar fell against the yen on the last session. The fundamental lack of irritants and political plan left the pair influenced by the sentiment on the stock market and the U.S. government debt which increased activity yesterday.


    The resistance level of 101.75 reached at the high volumes stopped the correctional price growth. Due to the short-term decline changes we see the consolidation formation. The price decrease comes as a result of the low volumes.


    The price is finding the support 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 101.60, the next one is at 102.23.


    There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement, and the Kijun-sen – a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory.


    Trading recommendations


    The price is likely to go to the downward trend line 100.80 - 101.00. We expect a bounce up to 101.30 soon.





    Franc (CHF)


    General Overview


    The dollar rose to a one-month high against major currencies, a day after Fed Chairman Janet Yellen said about the raising interest rates possibility before the expected date.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.8950, the next one is at 0.8920. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9000, the next one is at 0.9035.


    There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is going up.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to long with the first target - 0.9000. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9035.






  8. #8
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    21.07.2014


    Fundamental analysis


    The instruments showed multidirectional movement at the end of last week.


    The euro/dollar was in a narrow consolidation area 1.3517 - 1.3542. The United States released June construction sector index. The data were weak and did not support the U.S. currency. However, the decline in the construction sector is observed as in the United States and in Europe. Only a joyous occasion for investors was the drop in the initial jobless claims in the United States, which reached 302,000. But this was not enough, and traders are not in a hurry to short.


    The pound/dollar was partly influenced by the profit-taking shorts in the euro/pound. The pair reached the level of 1.7084 and then made a technical rebound and the pound managed to recover some of the losses. We expect that the "bulls" will buy on a strong reduction, relying on the northern movement continuation.


    The dollar/yen strong strengthening is not worth waiting. A southern movement is expected for this instrument. The increased geopolitical tensions helped sell-offs in equity markets, thereby supporting a demand for the yen as a safe asset.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General Overview


    The price is finding the first support at 1.3520, the next one is at 1.3480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3570, the next one is at 1.3610.


    There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Clound.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    The upward bounce potential target are 1.3570, 1.3610.





    Pound (GBP)


    General Overview


    The price is finding the first support at 1.7050, the next one is at 1.7000. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.7115, the next one is at 1.7160.


    There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement, and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory.


    Trading recommendations


    The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.7115. After breaking 1.7115 the buyers may go to 1.7160.





    Yen (JPY)


    General Overview


    The price is finding the support 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 101.60, the next one is at 102.23.


    There is a confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement, and the Kijun-sen – a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 101.00 soon.





    Franc (CHF)


    General Overview


    The price is finding the first support at 0.8950, the next one is at 0.8920. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9000, the next one is at 0.9035.


    There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is going up.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to short with the first target - 0.9000. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9035.






  9. #9
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    22.07.2014


    Fundamental analysis


    The U.S. currency was able to significantly strengthen its position relative to its main competitors. The EUR/USD was able to hit a new minimum for at least the past five months amid the negative macroeconomic data from the euro area balance of payments in May. The balance of payments current account surplus declined by 2.1 billion euro to 19.5 billion in May. The Institute of Michigan published the USA consumer confidence index in July which could not support the strong demand for the dollar as the data release came out worse than the forecasted median.


    The GBP/USD has remained under the pressure amid the institutional investors’ further profit on long positions. We did not receive any important macroeconomic statistics from the UK. But then, after the moderately negative the Michigan Institute report on consumer confidence "bulls" returned to the market and the British currency was able to recover some lost ground.


    In Asian trading the USD/JPY dropped, after which there was a technical rebound against the demand from Japanese exporters, as well as the world's leading stock exchanges growth. However, we have not seen strong quotations growth that confirms the strong factor of the investors in the U.S. currency interest absence.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    Overview


    The initial European currency reduction was caused by the continued caution amid the geopolitics background as well as the increasing concerns about the euro zone financial system health due to the problems in the Portuguese banking group Espirito Santo that is based on some hearings on the bankruptcy brink.


    The euro fall can be continued, of course, if not something extraordinary happens. However, at the moment, the technical factor is on the euro’s side as the euro/dollar fell to an annual minimum which can be given as a strong support.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.3520, the next one is at 1.3480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3570, the next one is at 1.3610.


    There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward one. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    The pair is close to the strong support 1.3520. We expect the growth.





    Pound (GBP)


    Overview


    Obviously, the reason for the sales drop was a sterling risk appetite against the backdrop of the geopolitical upheaval. The British currency is still the most profitable among the other majors in the current situation and it was the investors’ natural desire to reduce risk positions.


    The false retest of the resistance level of 1.7115 led to the formation of a price’s short-term pullback down. The British pound short-term pullback against the U.S. dollar has not appeared long.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.7050, the next one is at 1.7000. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.7115, the next one is at 1.7160.


    There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    The approach to the level of 1.7050 may lead to a price rebound up. The potential rebound target is the level of resistance 1.7160.




    Yen (JPY)


    Overview



    The Japanese currency declined against the dollar and returned most of the positions won in the previous session, when it was reported about the hit airliner on the border between Russia and Ukraine. It is possible that one of the moments that were supporting the dollar was the fact of the Japanese importers buying at attractive levels for this to which the pair dropped and the others - the profitability States’ "Treasuries" renewed growth.


    More than six months, the dollar/yen has been fixing above the strong support level of 101.00.


    The price is finding the support 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 101.60, the next one is at 102.23.


    There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    The price is likely to go to the upward trend line 102.23.





    Franc (CHF)

    Overview



    The Franc fell against the dollar after the euro. The dollar strengthened after The Federal Reserve chief Janet Yellen indicated last week that the interest rates may be risen sooner, if the economy continues to recover.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.8950, the next one is at 0.8920. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9000, the next one is at 0.9035.


    There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to long with the first target - 0.9000. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9030.






  10. #10
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    23.07.2014


    Fundamental analysis


    The major pairs held the narrow ranges against the backdrop of an empty macroeconomic calendar at the trading week beginning. All the week important events are still ahead so the market participants took a wait. The EUR/USD consolidated near the support level of 1.3512, which indicates a positions set by the institutional investors before a further bearish trend.


    The national activity index, calculated by the Chicago Fed, attracts the market participants’ interest. However, it doesn’t provide the events course influence. So this time, the index growth slowing in June to 0.12 against 0.16 in May and 0.18 forecast did not impact the investor sentiment.


    The German PPI slowed the fall and issued in June -0.7% y/y after -0.8% y/y. The Italian industrial orders collapsed in May by 2.5% y/y growth in April to 6.2% y/y. The monthly report announced the German economy problems as the Bundesbank pointed to a stop in GDP growth in the 2nd quarter.


    The British pound has tested the support level of 1.7058, the bulls managed to repel the attack, which confirms our view that the market participants will buy the strong GBP/USD decrease, based on the medium-term uptrend continuation.


    After the quotes dropped to the level of 101.06 - the Japanese exporters came to the market which opened the long positions opposing the national currency strengthening.






    Euro (EUR)


    Overview


    The Euro remains under the external events influence, and the given fact that the news background isn’t different in the "killed" information content in the other regions, we can assume the range trading continuation. The EUR/USD consolidated above the strong support level of 1.3520. Then the pair fell to the level of 1.3480 and tested it.


    The price is finding the support at 1.3450. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3480, the next one is at 1.3520.


    There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    We expect another retest which will be followed by the price bounce upwards. The potential bounce targets are 1.3520, 1.3570.


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    Pound (GBP)


    Overview


    The general market sentiment spreads its influence on the pound/dollar which closed the trading close to the opening prices against the dollar after the consolidation in a narrow side corridor.


    We suppose to see the public sector borrowing continued growth in June to 10.5 billion, after 13.3 billion pounds previously. The large loans and the lower orders could add some pressure to the pound in the current circumstances, in the absence of any support risk appetite with the reason for caution in the increasing geopolitical exacerbations view. The GBP/USD downward trend was stopped at the support level of 1.7050.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.7050, the next one is at 1.7000. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.7115, the next one is at 1.7160.


    There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The third level retest can cause the price bounce to the range of 1.7100 - 1.7110.





    Yen (JPY)


    Overview


    The Japanese yen is not an exception like the euro it is traded in a narrow range and closed the day with small losses against the dollar.


    The statistics has published the activity data - the activity index rose in May by 0.6% m/m vs. -4.6% m/m previously in all economy sectors, but this fact had no impact on the market - the yen fell slightly against the dollar.


    The stock market and the U.S. market government bonds as usually influence the pair. The USD/JPY corrective gains fell to the downward trend line 101.60.


    The price is finding the support 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 101.60, the next one is at 102.23.


    There is a confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory.


    Trading recommendations


    The volumes which gave the pair a chance to go up to the 101.60 trendline have formed a divergence. The level of 101.60 breakthrough, where the trading is being continued now, opens the way to the level of 102.23.





    Franc (CHF)


    Overview


    The U.S. dollar maintained its position against the franc. We didn’t observe the significant changes in the absence of the catalysts in the important economic data trading form. The investors are still very concerned about the geopolitical events in the recent times.


    Technically, the USD/CHF stabilized after the reaching the area 0.8990. The resistance at 0.9000 was broken.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9000, the next one is at 0.8950. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9035.


    There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise the long positions with the first target - 0.9035.






  11. #11
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    24.07.2014


    Fundamental analysis


    The dollar continued to strengthen against its major rivals. The DXY dollar index finished trading at around 80.78. The pair EUR/USD was bearish against the positive macroeconomic statistics from the United States publication. The June inflation showed a growth to the level of 2.1% year on year and it shows the growth to the Fed target level for three months in a row. This release only inflames the debates on the earlier interest rates increase by the FOMC which will support the dollar.


    The GBP/USD will be under the pressure and the only thing that can cheer up the "bulls" is the strong report from the CBI industrial orders in July. However, this release came out much worse than consensus-forecast and after the USA inflation data we can see the pound sales. Only the pair cross-course restrained the "bears" pressure and did not allow the pound to test the psychological level of 1.7000.


    The positive macroeconomic statistics on the inflation and the real estate market in the United States in conjunction with the price increase on the world markets stocks maintained the USD/JPY demand. However, after the European foreign exchange market participant's departure the bullish enthusiasm began to fade as we observed profit-taking on the long positions.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General Overview


    The euro was the most vulnerable instrument and fell. The euro was pressured by the mood prevailing on the further easing expectations in the ECB policy and the understanding that the European economy is exposed to the greater risks due to the events in Ukraine.


    The sellers have not stopped at the support level of 1.3520. The price’s continued consolidation has led to the downward trend continuation. Besides the trading volumes actively support the euro decrease against the U.S. dollar.


    The price is finding the support at 1.3420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3480, the next one is at 1.3520.


    There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendation


    The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.3420 soon.





    Pound (GBP)


    General Overview


    The pound left a narrow. Obviously, the market wasn’t in a hurry to take a decision on the pair, expecting information from the BoE last meeting minutes which can show - the power balance change among the Monetary Committee members on the policy tightening issue.


    The third retest of the support level of 1.7050 for the past three days shows the sellers’ great interest to continue the downward trend. However, the upward trend is still relevant due to the fact that the retest was followed by permanent bounces up.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.7000, the next one is at 1.6950. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.7050, the next one is at 1.7115.


    There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is going down.


    Trading recommendation


    The potential growth target is the resistance level of 1.7115.





    Yen (JPY)


    General Overview


    The Japanese yen like the sterling, recorded a small loss against the dollar. The yen decrease in the Asian session amid the Japan rising stock market wasn’t performed well due to the same geopolitical tensions and the renewed U.S. "Treasuries" profitability fall.


    The resistance level of 101.60 retest was followed by the volume, but the buyers are not able to continue the dollar strengthening against the yen.


    The price is finding the support 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 101.60, the next one is at 102.23.


    There is a confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory.


    Trading recommendation


    The upward bounce potential target is the level of 101.60. The pair can consolidate in the area of 101.20 – 101.00.





    Franc (CHF)


    General Overview


    The dollar rose against the Swiss franc. The U.S. currency held the near six-week high against the other major currencies basket after the data showed that the U.S. consumer price inflation rose in June, broadly in line with expectations.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9000, the next one is at 0.8950. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9035, the next one at 0.9060.


    There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendation


    We advise to long with the first target - 0.9035. After the trend line 0.9035 breakthrough up the way to the level of 0.9060 will be opened.






  12. #12
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    25.07.2014


    Fundamental analysis


    The EUR/USD was traded within a narrow range during the past days. On the background of an empty calendar macroeconomic the market participants haven’t taken a wait and traded quite sluggish. The 10-year U.S. bonds yields decrease as the important factor for the Forex also acts as a deterrent to continue the bearish trend.


    The last BoE meeting publication caused the GBP/USD sale. The monetary regulator statement on "the wage dynamics weakness increases uncertainty about the unused resources volume" refers to the outlook risks for economic growth as the monetary authorities do not rush to raise the interest rates. Against this negative background the traders got rid of the pound.


    The absence of macroeconomic statistics from Japan and the United States forced the traders to refrain from the USD/JPY active trading. The world's leading stock exchange decrease also pressures the pair, but then the dollar managed to regain lost ground amid the U.S. stock market rising.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    Overview


    It seems that investors decided to take time out and stopped the euro active selling. The euro stayed without changes against the dollar and actually concluded the session at the starting positions. The European newsflow bloc wasn’t rich enough to support the euro as it hadn’t received any support.
    The trading session was relatively sluggish. The downward trend is still more than relevant.


    The price is finding the support at 1.3420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3480, the next one is at 1.3520.


    There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The pair is close to the strong resistance 1.3480. If the pair doesn’t bounce from it we expect the fall to 1.3420.





    Pound (GBP)


    Overview


    The yesterday auction started with the euro replacing the British pound, taking the place of the most vulnerable currency. The sterling fell against all opponents after the BoE minutes publication which does not meet the investors' expectations on the quick recovery rates likelihood increase. The BoE announced the all committee members consensus on the current policy maintaining and uncertainty regarding the first interest rate increase timing.


    The fundamental data for GBP deployed the upward trend down. The volume crashed the strong support level breakthrough with trendline rise to 1.7050. Then the pair started the level of 1.7000 testing.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.6950, the next one is at 1.6900. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.7000, the next one is at 1.7050.


    There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    The pair can go to the support level of 1.6950. After breaking it the pair may go to 1.6900. The bounce upwards is possible to the level 1.7050.





    Yen (JPY)


    Overview


    The Japanese yen held the multidirectional consolidation against the dollar and closed the trading with a minor flaw. Probably, the absence of the express preferences in the stock markets and the U.S. market government debt influenced the pair while the U.S. released any sensitive information.


    The price is finding the first support at 101.00, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 102.70.


    There is a non-confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden cross”. The up ward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory.


    Trading recommendations


    We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level of 101.80. If the pair breaks this level it may go to 102.23.


    Still the bears can return and pressured the pair down below 101.50.





    Franc (CHF)


    Overview


    The Swiss franc is trading in a range. The head of Swiss National Bank Jordan said that the franc is still too overrated. The June inflation in the U.S. rose by 0.3%, in line with expectations, emphasizing the view that the economy is still improving.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9000, the next one is at 0.8950. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9035, the next one is at 0.9060.


    There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to long with the first target - 0.9035. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9060.






  13. #13
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    28.07.2014


    Fundamental analysis


    The EUR/USD consolidates near the strong resistance level of 1.3476. The Markit Economics published the manufacturing sector PMI in France and Germany. The reports showed the mixed trend. The France figure has been decreasing for four consecutive months, indicating the structural problems presence. The Germany release was better than the forecasted medians signaled to the market that the Germans will pull the whole Eurozone economy. The neutral background and the short oversold euro/dollar pushed "bears" to feel comfortable to take profits on the short positions.


    The UK retail sales release went on 0.1% below the consensus forecast, but it was enough to the "bears" to disperse the GBP/USD below the 70th figure. The wages reduction has a strong negative impact on a consumer confidence in the short term developing the negative impact on the inflation. Apparently, the market participants are already tired of the pound high rate and begin to open the short positions in the first successful opportunities.


    The Japan and the United States stock markets continue to enjoy a support from the investors which increases the demand for the USD/JPY. Even the negative macroeconomic statistics from the U.S. new buildings sales could not spoil the "bulls" mood - the primary market sales in June fell by 8.1%. But it is difficult to judge the U.S. consumer confidence weakness strength on the one negative report.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    Overview


    The single European currency has shown a resistance to pressure from the dollar and could strengthen against its other major opponents. On the week the euro gave the growth to the pound and the yen, but closed almost at the opening prices with greenback. The grown up interest in the single currency was due to an unexpectedly strong data on the activity in the Eurozone economy and its leading countries.


    The last week trading on the euro/dollar went below the intermediate resistance level 1.3480. The short-term level break which occurred was false. The price returned beyond the level, continuing to trade in the direction of the downward trend.


    The price is finding the support at 1.3420, the next one is at 1.3360. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3480, the next one is at 1.3520.


    There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    The approach to the level of 1.3480 may lead to the price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the support level of 1.3360.





    Pound (GBP)


    Overview


    The British pound was a less attractive asset and having continued its decrease against the dollar and other majors last week. The negative sentiment was caused by the BoE minutes and the UK retail sales in June.


    The pound has been in the downward trend for more than one week. The strong support level of 1.7000 breakthrough in the long term opened the way to the level of 1.6950 which has not been worked out yet.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.6950, the next one is at 1.6900. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.7000, the next one is at 1.7050.


    There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    We expect the level of 101.60 testing soon. The potential decrease target is the level of support 1.6900.





    Yen (JPY)


    Overview


    The yen also fell against the dollar last week. The yen strengthening amid the Japanese stock market fall in the Asian session was interrupted on the European session. The dollars buying impulse for the yen was given by the U.S. economic data indicated the labor market good trend and the renewed decrease in the U.S. "Treasuries" yields.


    The break of 101.60 resistance enabled the buyers to revise the dollar upward to the next level, located at around of 102.23.


    The price is finding the first support at 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 102.70.


    There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden cross”. The up ward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is going up.


    Trading recommendations


    Currently, the price is trading above the resistance level 101.60 which has already become the support. The approach to 102.23 may lead to the price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the level of support 101.60, 101.00.





    Franc (CHF)


    Overview


    The U.S. dollar maintained its position against the franc. The dollar gained a support after the data published last week and showed that the initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to the lowest level in more than eight years on last week.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9035, the next one is at 0.9000. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9060, the next one is at 0.9090.


    There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to long with the first target - 0.9060. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9090.






  14. #14
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    29.07.2014


    Fundamental analysis


    The dollar has completed a steady growth against its major rivals. The dollar index DXY basket closed at 81.04. The EUR/USD remained under pressure amid the negative macroeconomic statistics from the IFO institute. The July business climate indicator in Germany fell to the level of 108 which is the lowest for the last 8 months. The U.S. States presented a pleasant surprise to the traders - durable goods order volume data exceeded the forecasted medians which confirms the steady upward economy trend.


    The "Bearish" sentiment prevailed on the GBP/USD. The UK GDP release came out at the consensus forecast of 0.8% which was not able to support the demand for the pound. The investors expect a faster growth in the second quarter and as this has not happened - the "bulls" had to stay away from long positions opening. The euro/pound cross-course decrease held the bears’ attacks.


    The USD/JPY has ended the trading day within a narrow flat. Japan published the inflation data which went on 0.1% better than forecasted median. The oil price rise in June would not let loose the consumer price index. Nevertheless, the Japanese currency has ignored this release and we saw the pair’s symbolic fall.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    Overview


    The euro was quietly traded on the low having reached earlier. The euro sales impulse was given by the German IFO institute release which had shown a decrease concerning the trust in business.


    The support level of 1.3480 was broken down at lower volumes. The level breakthrough was followed by the price fixing. We expect the downward trend to be continued.


    At this time trades come in the narrow descending channel direction.


    The price is finding the support at 1.3420, the next one is at 1.3360. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3480, the next one is at 1.3520.


    There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendation


    The price is likely to go to the downward trend line 1.3360.





    Pound (GBP)


    Overview


    The British pound was traded in a narrow sideways range against the dollar and ended the day slightly lower, almost at the opening prices. Obviously, the unsatisfactory UK retail sales results in June, presented last Thursday, continued to put pressure on the sterling and as the technical factors caused the strong support for the GBP/USD supported the impulse.


    The British pound has been actively decreasing against the U.S. dollar for the last two weeks. The price fall touched the strong support level of 1.7000, approached at lower volumes which means the downward trend softening.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.6950, the next one is at 1.6900. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.7000, the next one is at 1.7050.


    There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendation


    After the trend line 1.6950 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.6900 will be opened.





    Yen (JPY)


    Overview


    The Japanese yen was under pressure from the dollar. The Japan stock market optimism which raised the Nikkei on 1.13% supported the pair, but the final result was less impressive - the pair fell and closed the trading day with only a slight increase.


    The last week short-break turned out to be a false one. The buyers managed to lift the price above of 101.60 once again


    The U.S. dollar corrective strength against the Japanese yen was met by the downward linear trend 102.23. The trend line is quite strong, it has been touched three times and has never been broken.


    The price is finding the first support at 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 102.70.


    There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show ahorizontal movement and form a “Golden cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendation


    The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 101.00 soon.





    Franc (CHF)


    Overview


    The Franc fell significantly against the dollar strengthening. The dollar index rose to almost one-month high amid the U.S. economic recovery signs


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9035, the next one is at 0.9000. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9060, the next one is at 0.9090.


    There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendation


    We advise to long with the first target - 0.9060. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9090.






  15. #15
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    30.07.2014


    Fundamental analysis


    The major pairs held another session in a narrow range and ended the trading day a bit below their opening. The investors’ inactivity was understandable, due to the news absence that could push volatility to a growth; moreover, the market went into the week waiting period of important events, such as the FOMC meeting minutes, GDP data for the U.S. and the July world's largest economy labor report. This caused a weak trading between predetermined ranges. The news across the United States could not make the investors happy yesterday and their mixed results did not cause any severe reactions which could become the balancing effect result.


    The pending home sales release in the secondary market fell in June, with -1.1% m/m due to the expected growth of 0.5% m/m, while the Dallas Fed report issued the opposite trend - PMI in July improved to 12.7 vs. 11.4 earlier.


    Japan continued to demonstrate inflation growth in June which was shown by the official data. The price increase largely contributed to the increasing sales tax rates, conducted in April which should help the Japanese authorities to reduce the state budget deficit.


    The indicator value was at 3.4% in May. The Tokyo consumer prices rose on 2.8%, slightly higher than the forecast made by Reuters. The observed increase in price is largely due to the sales tax rate increase to 8%, conducted in April.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General Overview


    The Euro stayed almost unchanged against the U.S. dollar and ended the session a bit below it had started the day. Obviously, the negative sentiment is caused by the additional easing expectations from the ECB that still fly in the area. The Eurozone did not release any significant news. We can mention only the Italy manufacturing sector confidence index in which fell to 99.7 in July against 99.9 in June, and made no impression on investors.


    The euro has been dropping down for the fifth week. The short-term consolidation development was replaced by the continuing downward trend which in its turn wasn’t supported by the trade volumes.


    The price is finding the support at 1.3360. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3420, the next one is at 1.3480.


    There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    The short-term consolidation below the resistance level of 1.3420 can be followed by the price bounce down. The potential target is the mark of 1.3360.





    Pound (GBP)


    General Overview


    The UK news vacuum and the news expectations from the United States impacted the GBP/USD during the trading day. The sterling did not change the range which had been formed in previous sessions. The pound most likely will continue to "drift" against the dollar due to the U.S. news expectations.


    The sellers could update the last week minimum 1.6950 to continue the downward trend. The side corridor formed within the daily chart on the levels of 1.7000 – 1.6960 was broken.


    The price is finding the support at 1.6900. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6950, the next one is at 1.7000.


    There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is going down.


    Trading recommendations


    The main price target is the support level of 1.6900.





    Yen (JPY)


    General Overview


    The Japanese currency was no exception and also like other majors started to move against the dollar. The stock market activity and the U.S. debt market government gave some strength to keep growing. Moreover the pair got some drive from the traders’ expectations regarding the USA important events that upcoming this week.


    The break higher the strong support level of 101.60 was the signal for the rising trend continuation. The bounce from 101.60 level has led to the 102.23 downward trend line breakout.


    The price is finding the first support at 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 102.70.


    There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is going up.


    Trading recommendations


    Despite the fact that the news had virtually no impact on volumes the 102.23 descending trend line breakout up in further perspective opens the way to the resistance level of 102.70.





    Franc (CHF)


    General Overview


    The U.S. dollar is strengthening its position against the franc in FOMC next meeting anticipation. The pair is close to the support area at 0.9060 which was the last time tested on the last fall. The Fed meeting records and the July employment report may support the U.S. currency may.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9060, the next one is at 0.9035. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9090, the next one is at 0.9130.


    There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to open long positions with the first target - 0.9090. Once we break above this level we think that the level of 0.9130 will be the next one.






  16. #16
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    31.07.2014


    Fundamental analysis


    The market has already shown the directed activity and the U.S. dollar strengthened on all fronts. Apparently, investors "bought the rumor" expecting the U.S. economy good forecasts.


    The labor report prophecy affects the pair supporting the dollar growth interest. The data presented yesterday changed the U.S. currency optimism and noted the different trends direction.


    The Fed's decision announcement will become the final event which will decide the monetary policy future. The imminent tightening hints add acceleration to the dollar growth as its absence may trigger the stop and reducing correction.


    The IMF believes that if the UK inflation grows actively, the new BoE regulations on real estate market won't be effective to prevent the "bubble" formation and the Bank of England will have to tighten the monetary policy sooner than was predicted.


    The British economy analysis annual report from the IMF found the current BoE ultra soft policy acceptable, but it should be possible to correct it quickly in case of inflation acceleration. The IMF believes that the "cooling" of the housing market interest rate increase is necessary.


    During the Asian session, there were received much Japanese macroeconomic data which showed the unemployment rate within 3.7% compared with the predicted 3.5% and the region retail sales 0.4% compared with the expected 0.8%. This fact pressured the Japanese currency and lifted the dollar.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General Overview


    The euro fell to new low against the dollar on yesterday's trading day. In the absence of any encouraging Eurozone news for the "bulls" on the euro, the euro has remained under the influence of continuing geopolitical risks, further ECB easing expectations and the rumors about the good U.S. economy results supported the dollar sentiment.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.3360, the next one is at 1.3290. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3420, the next one is at 1.3480.


    There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is going down.


    Trading recommendations


    The price is likely to go to the downward trend line 1.3290.





    Pound (GBP)


    General Overview


    The British currency resumed its decrease against the dollar after two days of sideways consolidation. Perhaps the market didn’t find the BoE lending information enough encouraging which along with very good statistics showed some negative aspects.


    The pound was pressured by the U.S. economy strong data expectations and the political impulse related with the FOMC solutions emergence. There won't be any news on the pound so it will remain under the external information influence primarily from the United States.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.6900, the next one is at 1.6860. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6950, the next one is at 1.7000.


    There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    We expect the level of 1.6880- 1.6900 testing soon. The potential growth target is the level of resistance 1.7000.





    Yen (JPY)


    General Overview


    The pressure on the yen was resumed by the dollar after a short break. The prospect of getting the good reports on the U.S. economy and the risk of hearing the Fed policy tightening imminent probability hints are more influential factors than the fears for worsening the geopolitical situation. The published consumer spending, unemployment and retail sales in June had no effect on the market. The employment and GDP good results will add support for the dollar, but it will mostly depend on the Fed’s information - the "pigeon" plan rhetoric will return the pair to the decrease.


    The price is finding the first support at 102.70, the next one is at 102.23. The price is finding the first resistance at 103.00, the next one is at 103.35.


    There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    After the trend line 101.60 breakthrough up the way to the resistance 103.35 is opened.





    Franc (CHF)


    General Overview


    The dollar touched its highest level for the last seven weeks against the major competitors in anticipation of the U.S. economic recovery. The employment report which is expected this Friday is expected to show the continued employment growth and the Fed's may leave the current monetary policy rhetoric.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9090, the next one is at 0.9060. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9130, the next one is at 0.9170.


    There is a confirmed and strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is going up.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to long with the first target - 0.9130. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9170.






  17. #17
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    01.08.2014


    Fundamental analysis


    The dollar index basket (USDX) set a fresh 2014 high at 81.54 on the back of the U.S. positive macroeconomic data.


    The EUR/USD remained under pressure amid the positive U.S. GDP data for the 2nd quarter during the day. The index went significantly better forecasted medians of 4% qoq. We should note the significant personal consumption expenditures increase to the level of 2.5%. This releases point to the strong economic growth which created the foundation for the subsequent months. The U.S. Fed meeting outcome brought no surprises and market participants took profits on the short positions, as the result the euro was able to regain some lost ground.


    The GBP/USD also remained under the pressure. The pound fully copied the euro trading dynamics because the UK published any significant macroeconomic releases. The FOMC meeting went as expected - the QE-3 program was decreased by $10 billion as 9 out of 10 committee members expressed the view that the current macroeconomic situation was not balanced enough to think about the monetary policy tightening. Only Charles Plosser disagreed with this view, saying that the Fed turned a blind eye to the strong economic growth.


    The Japanese stock market, unlike its American and European colleagues shows an upward trend, storming the strong resistance levels. Together with the positive US GDP release for the 2nd 2014 quarter, we have witnessed the "bulls rally" on the USD/JPY.






    Euro (EUR)


    General Overview


    The euro fell against the dollar under the good U.S. economy data at the time when the own messages have not been able to support the EU economy. The euro support came after Fed sentiment reports to keep the monetary policy soft. This stopped the euro/dollar decline, but did not allow it to get rid of losses.


    The euro continues to decrease against the dollar at higher volumes. The trades still go on the descending channel direction which upper bound of 1.3380-1.3400 shows the price corrective growth.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.3360, the next one is at 1.3290. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3420, the next one is at 1.3480.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    The upward bounce potential target is 1.3420. If the price falls it will get to 1.3360. The way to the mark 1.3290 will be opened after this breakthrough.





    Pound (GBP)


    General Overview


    The sterling continued to be under the external information influence due to the lack of UK news and like other majors fell against the dollar the other day. It is possible that investors will continue to analyze the Fed data and resume expectations on the U.S. labor report which is likely to determine the lateral GBP/USD trading consolidation.


    The price went up to the trendline at lower volumes which speaks about the downward trend relief. The first 1.6900 mark retest did not bring any positive results for the bears.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.6860, the next one is at 1.6825. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6900, the next one is at 1.6950.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    If the pair does not break the level of 1.6860 down we expect the growth to 1.6950.





    Yen (JPY)


    General Overview


    The Japanese yen was the most vulnerable asset in the foreign exchange market and fell against all the main opponents the other day. Obviously, the U.S. news were the main influence factors in a dispute with the dollar tossed the pair up


    The customers managed to consolidate above two strong resistance levels of 102.23 and 102.70. The breakthrough of the last level of 102.70 upward allowed the price to get out of a six-month limit rectangle side.


    The price is finding the first support at 102.70, the next one is at 102.23. The price is finding the first resistance at 103.00, the next one is at 103.35.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level of 103.00, the next one is 103.35.





    Franc (CHF)


    General Overview


    The data showed that the United States economy strongly accelerated in the second quarter, but growth is constrained by the Fed indication that the interest rates will remain on the same level.


    The sharp dollar rise led to the USD/CHF restoration to the new high in the last six months.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9060, the next one is at 0.9035. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9090, the next one is at 0.9130.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to long with the first target - 0.9130. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9170.






  18. #18
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    04.08.2014


    Fundamental analysis


    The dollar upward trend is speeding up. However, the market participants stayed away from an active trading as major pairs spent all day within the lateral trend. The EUR/USD has ignored the weak Eurozone CPI for July. According to preliminary data, the inflation was reduced to the level of 0.4% year on year, and the deflation threat becomes stronger and stronger. The only thing that was a honey spoonful in a tar barrel is the unemployment reducing to the level of 11.5%. Nevertheless, the bond market mood are in favor of a further euro/dollar decline - the American and German bonds yield spread widening certainly will support the American currency. Nevertheless, the pair fell at the end of the last trading week.


    The GBP/USD came again under attack, losing on the day of 0.2%. The investors are selling the British currency as the States came to the Forex with its positive macroeconomic releases. In addition, we observed the BoE disagreements about the tightening monetary policy which clearly plays into the bears hands.


    The weak macroeconomic statistics from Japan did not allow the bears to compensate some lost ground on the USD/JPY. Reducing salaries combined with the rising unemployment in June became the negative factor for the personal use and will slow the GDP’s growth. Japanese stock market sales weren’t able to exert pressure on the USD/JPY - bulls are confident and keep the situation under control. However, the pair decreased.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General Overview


    The short term support level of 1.3375 suspended the single currency reduction against the American dollar. Double-sellers failed to break below 1.3375 to continue the trend steadily downward.


    The trading volumes remain in the growing area, indicating the continued downward trend strength. However, the sellers need to break below the current support level of 1.3375 to confidently continue the downward movement. The pair closed the trading week above the level of 1.3420.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.3420, the next one is at 1.3360. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3480, the next one is at 1.3520.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    The potential downward movement targets are the support levels: 1.3360, 1.3290.


    Currently, the price is trading above the resistance level 1.3420 which has already become the support. The potential growth target is the resistance level of 1.3480.





    Pound (GBP)


    General Overview


    The British Pound continues to decline and set a new 7week low at 1.6821. The pound decrease advances dollar strengthening amid the weak UK real estate market data and BoE official's soft comments.


    Three-week pound downtrend gradually fizzles out. The last few days the dollar strengthening against GBP comes at the low volumes. The corrective price growth up may be expected in the short term.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.6825, the next one is at 1.6770. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6860, the next one is at 1.6900.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    The price is going down. Still we expect the growth. The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.6900, 1.6950.





    Yen (JPY)


    General Overview


    The Forex traders were disappointed with the low volatility at the market which was started earlier this year. Obviously, there was a self-replicating cycle whereby the pulse absence prevents the new trading range formation that makes many traders to stay away from the market which weakens the impulse.


    The last month maximum 102.79 update led to the short-term consolidation above the strong support level of 102.70. Inverse retest level was followed with the lower volumes and in the longer term may serve as a signal for future price growth. Nevertheless, the pair decreased below the level of 102.70.


    The price is finding the first support at 102.23, the next one is at 101.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.70, the next one is at 103.00.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    The upward bounce potential target is 103.80-104.00.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The dollar strengthened its position against the franc in anticipation of the United States labor market data publication. Then the pair went down and closed the trading week below the level of 0.9060.


    Investors are now focused on USA initial jobless claims. The economists expect the job growth in July 230000.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9035, the next one is at 0.9000. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9060, the next one is at 0.9090.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to long with the first target - 0.9090. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9130.






  19. #19
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    05.08.2014


    Fundamental analysis


    The EUR/USD trading was within a narrow consolidation. The traders are waiting. The employment release went worse then the median forecasts - 209 thousand new jobs were created in the United States in July, thus the unemployment increased by 0.1%. However, the Non-Farm figure has been above the key level of 200 thousand for 6 consecutive months which tells us about the strong economic growth. Also the hourly wage has not demonstrated any growth that combined with the reduction in personal spending will act as a deterrent to inflationary pressures.


    The sales seen in the GBP/USD pair amid the weak macroeconomic statistics, as well as the cross-rate euro/pound strengthening. The PMI manufacturing sector UK shows the reduction third month in a row that has provoked the British pound strong sales against the U.S. dollar and the single European currency. At the moment the quotation fell to 1.6815, but then the consolidation came.


    The bears triumph on the world's leading stock markets together with the moderately negative employment release in the United States led the bulls begin to take the profits on the long positions in the USD/JPY after 2 weeks of the growth. At the moment the quotation fell to 102.30, but in this area there was a demand for the U.S. dollar which allowed the bulls to recover some lost positions.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General Overview


    The pair has been in the downward trend for three month and can change the direction in the short term. The current pullback happened when the price broke the upper boundary.


    We should also mention the fact that the price left the downward trend at the increased volume.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.3420, the next one is at 1.3360. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3480, the next one is at 1.3520.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The upward movement will be continued. The upward bounce potential target is the resistance level of 1.3480. We expect the level of 1.3480 retesting soon.





    Pound (GBP)


    General Overview


    The GBP/USD the long uptrend turned down. The British pound has actively been decreasing against the U.S. dollar for almost a month. The rebound from the resistance level of 1.7160 was followed by the price’s sharp falling and the two critical supports breakdown.


    The last week allowed the sellers to strengthen their position due to the strong support level of 1.6950 breakthroughs and the rising trendline 1.6900. The two strong supports breaks happened amid an increased volume. In the longer term, this means a continued downward trend.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.6825, the next one is at 1.6770. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6860, the next one is at 1.6900.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    Currently, the price is trading above the resistance level 1.6825 which has already become the support. We recommend going short with the first target - 1.6770. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level of 0.6700.





    Yen (JPY)


    General Overview


    The U.S. dollar strengthening against the Japanese yen has allowed the buyers to break above the downward trend line 101.60 and the strong resistance level of 102.70.


    The resistance level of 102.70 break was short-lived. Two day consolidation above the breakout was followed by a short-term break down. The level reverse breakthrough was followed by the increased volume, but at the same time, this breakthrough is not considered as a signal to reverse the upward trend.


    The price is finding the first support at 102.23, the next one is at 101.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.70, the next one is at 103.00.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    Currently, the price is trading above the resistance level 102.23 which has already become the support. The potential growth target is the resistance level of 103.35.





    Franc (CHF)


    General Overview


    The frank slightly weakened against the dollar. Despite the latest correction that was provoked by the weaker-than-expected data on the U.S. labor market, the dollar strengthened against the major currencies at the end of the last week.


    As it became known, in the U.S., the Non Farms amounted to 209K in July vs. 233K and 288K in June. The unemployment rate rose to 6.2% against 6.1%.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9060, the next one is at 0.9035. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9090, the next one is at 0.9130.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to short with the first target - 0.9035. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9000.






  20. #20
    ValdisTF


    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    06.08.2014


    Fundamental analysis


    Trading week beginning was a quiet enough. The EUR/USD was within a narrow range of 1.3409 - 1.3431. Then the pair fell to 1.3361. In the absence of important macroeconomic statistics the traders took a pause. Only the moderate euro/pound cross-course decrease allowed the bears to win.


    The UK construction sector PMI release showed the decrease compared with the previous month, but was better than the forecasted medians. It should be noted that this figure has been stable for 9 consecutive months being above $60% which proves the UK construction sector positive trend. The market participants took profits on the GBP/USD short positions amid this moderately positive backdrop.


    We could see the dollar/yen side tendency during the day. In the second half of the U.S. trading session there was the demand for the U.S. stock market, which supported the pair.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The European currency was within a narrow range against the dollar and then the pair fell. Obviously, this "marking time" can be explained by the expectations about the ECB mood and intentions which will be clear after the coming meeting. The market nervousness is still preserved as the further easing probability is high.


    The price bounce from the descending channel allowed the buyers to stop the downward trend at the support level of 1.3360. We observed the bounce up from the price level which was followed by a high volume.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.3360, the next one is at 1.3290. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3420, the next one is at 1.3480.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    The breakthrough of 1.3420 mark will open the way up to the next resistance located at around 1.3480. The mark of 1.3480 retest is more likely to lead to the short-term consolidation.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The British pound became the leader, after it got stronger against the dollar, but also against the euro and the yen. The sterling was supported by the construction sector activity - the PMI index for this economy sector in July fell slightly to 62.4 from 62.6 previously, but was stronger than it was forecast, waited falling to 62.1.


    Before the BoE's meeting the market is not likely to risk much to build positions so the pound growth, even if it happens will not be large and long.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.6860, the next one is at 1.6770. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6900, the next one is at 1.6950.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    The 1.6900 mark retest is likely to happen during the GBP fundamental data release. If the retest is false, we expect the downward trend continuation. The nearest target is the support level of 1.6770.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The dollar/yen was being traded in the sideways consolidation and was closed at the starting positions yesterday. For a while, we saw the yen increase against dollar amid the continuing U.S. treasuries profitability fall, but by the session end the situation align the instrument and the result turned out to be neutral.


    Three false retests of 103.00 resistance level served as a signal for the downward correction formation. The breakthrough of the support level of 102.70 allowed sellers to revise the uptrend line.


    The U.S. dollar corrective weakness against the Japanese yen is not supported by the trade volumes.


    The price is finding the first support at 102.23, the next one is at 101.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.70, the next one is at 103.00.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    The sellers cannot break below the rising trend line of 102.23, so it is likely to expect the price bounce up. The potential growth targets are the two marks: 102.70 and 103.00.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The dollar was steady against the major currencies basket after the Friday decrease when the data showed that the U.S. economy added fewer jobs than was expected in July.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9060, the next one is at 0.9035. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9090, the next one is at 0.9130.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    We recommend short positions with the first target - 0.9035. After fixing below the first target we recommend 0.9000 as the next aim.








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