"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


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  1. #141
    ValdisTF



    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    25.02.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The European currency fell against the US dollar after the weaker than expected German Ifo index report. Janet Yellen’s speech did not move the market. Janet Yellen announced that the rates would be at the current level for a while.


    The trades finished in favor of the US dollar which strengthened against the euro by 60 points, the volatility was 102 points during the day.


    The Germany business sentiment indicators increased in February, but its results were lower than experts had forecasted. The Germany business sentiment index amounted to 106.8 points against 106.7 ones in January while economists had expected that it would be around 107.7 points.


    The US dollar got under pressure amid the second housing market release, which, according to the National Realtors NAR Association, fell by 4.9% compared with December and amounted to 4.82 million of homes per year. Economists had expected in January sales of existing homes will be reduced to 4.98 million homes a year. Compared with the same period of the previous year the US second housing market sales rose by 3.2% in January.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    Janet Yellen’s speech was not a surprise for the market. Traders expected that the rates would not be changed. According to the Ifo, the market’s attitude towards the euro was negatively affected by the smaller than expected the February business sentiment index growth in Germany.


    After the continuous consolidation there was a little rebound. The pair made a strong support level of 1.1300 testing.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The approach to the level of 1.1300 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 1.1400, 1.1520.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The UK retail sales weak data negatively affect attitude towards the pound in February. The growth potential is also constrained by the improving market relations towards the dollar and by the investors’ risk appetite weakening. The Bank of England Governor Mark Carney made his speech in front of the finance parliamentary committee.


    The resistance level of 1.5400 breakthrough was followed by the active price rebound upwards. The price rebound from the level was without volumes. Then the pair tested the support level of 1.5400.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5400, the next one is 1.5300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5510, the next one is at 1.5620.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    After the resistance level of 1.5510 breakthrough upwards the way to the resistance level of 1.5620 will be opened.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The pair dollar/yen traded under the pairs’ selling pressure with the yen amid the risk appetite weakening. On Tuesday more than expected the secondary housing market sales decline affected the pair. Trades were cautious in anticipation of the Janet Yellen speech in front of the Senate Committee on the banking activities.


    The trade within the Japanese yen is within the side corridor near 118.40 - 119.50. However, bulls still dominate due to the fact that the medium-term uptrend is still preserved within this market.


    The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.


    The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is falling.


    Trading recommendations


    The buyers need to break above 119.20 for a steady growth.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  2. #142
    ValdisTF



    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    26.02.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The main dollar disappointment was the US Federal Reserve governor speech. Janet Yellen in her comments made it clear that the regulator still kept thinking about interest rates increase, but she did not mention more or less explicit terms. In addition, Janet Yellen made it clear that even the January new jobs increase had not yet convinced the Fed that the labor market was stable and noted quite high inflation. Therefore, the market took her words as evidence that it is necessary to wait for a long period the low interest rates.


    The Eurozone will not publish interesting statistics. Mario Draghi will make his speech, but it is unlikely that the ECB governor will say something new and different from what we had repeatedly heard. Therefore, the euro is likely to show us something special.


    The UK will not publish interesting macroeconomic data. Still the BOE Governor comments will influence the pair.


    The pair dollar / yen will monitor the situation within the US housing market. The second Yellen’s speech is not much different from what she had said the day before. Therefore, the market will ignore this factor with a fairly high probability because everything stated by the Fed has actually built into the price. Anyway the primary housing market sales data can affect the market.




    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    After the Janet Yellen speech the market concluded that the US Central Bank was not inclined to hurry up with the interest rates increase. In particular she noted that the Fed would maintain a flexibility in raising rates issue and added that their increase at "the nearest pair of meetings is unlikely."


    The price is still in the side corridor at the level of 1.1400 - 1.1300.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.


    The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The price is likely to go to the resistance level of 1.1400. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.1520.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    Apparently, the Bank of England chose not to focus its attention on the short-term inflation and made it clear that the next step would be the interest rates increase. The Yellen speech can affect the pair movement.


    Due to the rebound from the support level of 1.5300 the British pound confidently continued its upward trend, breaking through the resistance level of 1.5400 on its way. The pair tested the resistance level of 1.5510.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5400, the next one is 1.5300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5510, the next one is at 1.5620.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    The potential growth target is the resistance level of 1.5620.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The pair is under pressure from the US Treasury bond yields decrease and the deteriorated attitude towards the dollar after the Fed chairman semi-annual speech in Congress. She noted economic improvement and reminded investors that the central bank was close to the borrowings cost increase.


    The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.


    The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    If the pair breaks 119.20 up it will open the way to the level of 120.40 and then to 121.60.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  3. #143
    ValdisTF



    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    27.02.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    In the light of the Fed recent announcements all investors’ attention will be focused on the US economic data, namely the consumer inflation figures, durable goods orders, jobless claims, real wages and the US GDP.




    It is expected that jobless claims will grow up, but not much, to 290 000 against 283 000. The main thing is that they remain below 300,000 which will point out to the continued strong upward trend in the labor market.


    The January real wages data will play an important role. In December it increased by 0.2% and in January it is expected to rise by 0.3%. And, despite the fact that this figure is quite volatile, the overall salary dynamics increase indicates, although, the slow, but the US income recovery levels.


    The US economic figures came out better then the forecast or even a little better and it returned expectation for the further interest rate increase in June to the markets and will have a positive impact on the US dollar. We would like to remind that on Tuesday and Wednesday J. Yellen persistently claimed that the interest rate increase deadlines will depend on the labor market and inflation statistics.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The euro sharply fell at the end of the trades. Earlier the pair euro/dollar was supported by the negative attitude towards the dollar and demand for the single European currency within the growing euro/yen amid the risk aversion weakening on the market. The euro growth potential is limited by the ECB large-scale quantitative easing program and the euro sales.


    The pair was growing from the support level of 1.1300 amid the low volumes. Nevertheless the pair could not continue the growth and sharply decreased.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.1170, the next one is at 1.1040. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1400.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.


    Trading recommendations


    The approach to the level of 1.1300 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support level of 1.1170.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The pair GBP/USD maintained the market negative attitude towards the dollar, demand for British pound within the growing pair GBP/JPY amid the weakening risk aversion and demand for it within the falling euro/pound.


    The British pound strengthened against the US dollar quite confidently, breaking through the strong resistance level of 1.5510 on its way. Then the pair decreased to the support level of 1.5400.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5400, the next one is 1.5300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5510, the next one is at 1.5620.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.5510.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The pair USD/JPY increased at the end of the yesterday’s trades. Earlier the pair dollar / yen was under pressure from the market negative attitude towards the dollar (ICE Dollar Index reached 94.19 against 94.47 in the Wednesday morning ) as the Federal Reserve System chairman (FRS) Janet Yellen expressed quite careful position towards the interest rates. The Japanese exporters’ sales also put pressure on the pair. The pair potential reduction is limited by the Japanese importers demand and the Bank of Japan extremely soft policy.


    The yen has been very sluggish and lowly volatile for the seven trading days. The last four days the trade has acquired a flat character around the uptrend line of 119.20.


    The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.


    There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 120.40, 121.60.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The pair dollar / franc potential reduction is limited by the franc sales within the growing pairs: AUS/CHF, NZU/CHF and CAD/CHF. It is also supported by the Switzerland negative interest rates and the Swiss National Bank intervention threat with the franc sales.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9150, the next one is at 0.8940. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9340, the next one is at 0.9540.


    There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to long with the first target - 0.9750. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9950.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  4. #144
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    02.03.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The US dollar rose strongly against the euro after the US core CPI showed the first increase in January compared to the same period of the previous year from October 2009. The trades closed in the US dollar favor which strengthened against the euro by 167 points; the trading volatility totaled 196 points last week.


    According to the data, the US initial jobless claims rose by 31 thousand to 313 thousand from 15 till 21 February while economists had expected the number would remain at the level of 290 thousand.


    The US inflation data added strong pressure on the market which fell by 0.7%, but the core CPI, which excludes the food and energy prices, rose by 0.2% in January that supported the US dollar in the afternoon.


    The durable goods orders volume rose by 2.8% in January 2015 which is a very good sign for the US economic growth. These data also supported the US dollar as economists had expected increase only by 1.7%.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The euro has fallen by 160 points. The formal and "official" reason was the root inflation index growth – the US consumer prices increased by 0.2% in January. The forecast was 0.1%.


    Consolidation in the downward channel upper bound of 1.1400 led to the price rebound downwards and the support level breakthrough of 1.1300. Due to the formed breakthrough, the medium-term bearish trend has strengthened in the market.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.1170, the next one is at 1.1040. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1400.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.1040 and 1.0925 soon.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The pound lost 120 points. We consider that the genuine reason for its decline lies in a sharp demand increase for European bonds which investors are actively buying before their repurchase by the ECB which will begin in March.


    The active pound decline against the US dollar was followed from the resistance level of 1.5510. The price decrease was followed by the increased volumes and was suspended by the uptrend line of 1.5400.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5400, the next one is 1.5300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5510, the next one is at 1.5620.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The upward movement potential target is 1.5510. If the price falls it will get to 1.5300.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The dollar is slightly declining against the yen after the Japan disappointing economic data release while demand for the US dollar weakened after the American statistics publication.


    The trade within the Japanese yen has been in the bottom of the upward flat for the last two weeks.


    The strong resistance level of 119.20 was broken upwards. The pair is trading towards to 120.40.


    The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.


    There is a non-confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.


    Trading recommendations


    The pair can fall to the support levels of 119.20, 118.00.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The franc has rapidly grown during the US session and reached the highest level since the day that the Swiss National Bank released the franc against the euro. The mixed statistics publication supported the dollar and the pair increased at the end of the last week.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9340, the next one is at 0.9150. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9750.


    There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to long with the first target - 0.9750. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9950.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  5. #145
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    03.03.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    After the last week dollar quite strengthening amid the market preparation to March when the ECB intends to launch the bond purchase program, the dollar is traded once again in its growth direction against the European majors. Most of the US economic messages announced the results within and above forecasts which allows the US dollar to keep balance after the news publication from other regions that are currently supported by its competitors.


    The dollar and the yen opposition was not an exception - the US dollar continued its growth that started last week. In this case, the market was, probably, guided by the Japanese economic data which, in some way, possessed the opinion that the Japan Central Bank still would have to launch the softening program as well as the positive part of the US data which traditionally supports the pair dollar/yen.


    The market volatility can grow amid the ECB and the BoE decisions at the meetings which will end on Thursday.


    The dollar is also supported by the Fed top managers’ speeches (Bullard, Lockhart) and their statements showed that the Fed rate is firmly directed towards the monetary policy tightening.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The market's attention will be focused on the US and European business activity index as well as on the new signals regarding the Federal Reserve future rate hikes.


    Earlier the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank president Dennis Lockhart said that he expected the Fed interest rates increase during the summer months, though, he believe that this decision would need additional confirmation from the macroeconomic data.


    The signal for correction is the downward channel lower bound of 1.1170 testing.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.1170, the next one is at 1.1040. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1400.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The potential correction target is the resistance level of 1.1300.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The pound is trying to intercept the US dollar initiative amid the confident macroeconomic indicators and the US Federal Reserve unclear position and the pound has a chance to strengthen against the US dollar this week.


    The downward correction continues from the resistance level of 1.5510. There was the prices decrease amid the lower volumes which led to the uptrend line of 1.5400 breakthrough. This break signals towards the downward correction continuation.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5400, the next one is at 1.5510.


    The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.


    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is falling.


    Trading recommendations


    The trend is a down side. We expect the level of 1.5300 testing soon.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The yen resumed its decline against the dollar amid the coming expectations that the continuing divergence in the Fed and the Bank of Japan monetary policy approaches will continue to put pressure on the yen against the dollar. It is known that the Japan industrial production rose up to 4% m/m in January while it was expected increase by 2.7% m/m.


    There was the last week maximum of 119.85 update and the pair rose up to the psychological level of 120.00. The price fixed above the resistance level of 119.20. The volumes are in reduced zone.


    The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    The pair is going upwards. The bulls’ target is the level of 120.40.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  6. #146
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    04.03.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The beginning of the week was marked by the US dollar growth. The pair EUR/USD was in the flat near 1.1160-1.1245. The euro area inflation and unemployment positive releases could support the demand for the single European currency and at the moment quotations reached the level of 1.1245, but then traders closed their "longs" that caused the euro rebound. However the pair increased again.


    The pair GBP/USD was under pressure amid the short positions profit taking at the cross-rate euro/pound as well as the US Treasury bond yields increase. The February UK manufacturing PMI was better than the forecasted medians, but traders did not hurry to open long positions. The pair EUR/GBP is in the oversold area that forced investors to withdraw partially from the short positions that put pressure on the British pound. Nevertheless the pair GBP/USD grew and is the flat.


    Bulls dominated at market for the pair USD/JPY despite the US negative macroeconomic statistics. The ISM manufacturing index has shown a decline for the fourth month in a row which is the first wake-up call for the US economy. Nevertheless, traders focused their attention exclusively on the stock market dynamics. The pair fell on the yesterday’s trades.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    According to the Germany Federal Statistical Office, the January retail sales rose by 5.3% y/y, exceeding the estimates by 3.0%. Institutional investors ignored positive news that proves the bearish sentiment prevalence.




    The mark of 1.1170 suspended the euro active reduction against the US dollar. The trade has moved into the low volatility framework.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.1170, the next one is at 1.1040. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1400.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1300. The approach to the level of 1.1300 may lead to a price rebound down.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The Center for Macroeconomic Research Markit Economics published the UK construction sector business climate release. The index rose up to 60.1 from 59.1.


    The UK 10-year government bond yields increased significantly in February relative to the US and Germany analogues which also confirms the upward trend for the pair.


    The price has not reached the support level of 1.5300 to test its strength.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5400, the next one is at 1.5510.


    There is a non-confirmed and a week sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The pair can fall to the resistance level of 1.5300. The upward bounce potential target are 1.5400, 1.5510.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The Japan household expenditure negative statistics indicates to the wages increase that can cheer the bulls up for the long positions opening. Yesterday the world leading stock markets confidently increased which is also a bullish factor for the pair USD/JPY.


    Before reaching the last month high that is the mark of 120.40, the price turned down for a correction. The US dollar sharp decline against the Japanese yen is not supported by the trading volumes.


    The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    We may expect the fall towards 119.20 further on we expect a growth to 120.40.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  7. #147
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    05.03.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The US dollar strengthened after it was under. The pair EUR/USD has increased on the January Germany retail sales positive data. The total indicator came out much better than the consensus forecast and the Germans seem to be able to pull the Old World economy out of crisis. The oil prices increase also have a positive impact on the euro quotes. However the pair sharply fell after the US economic releases publication.


    The pair GBP/USD was in demand amid the Markit Economics construction sector positive release. The business climate indicator in this economic sector returned to 60% which indicates the UK economy strength. At the end of the day the pair GBP/USD has fallen.


    Less of all the US dollar has increased with the Japanese yen. The Japan Ministry of Health, Welfare and Employment reported that the wages level slight increased in January that cheered bears to short. The correction in the US stock market has increased pressure on the USD/JPY which fell. The pair grew after new US economic data were published.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    We should pay our attention to the euro zone retail sales for January. The data came out slightly better than the forecasted medians that supported the euro. However, the pair euro/dollar encountered the bears’ resistance near the 12th figure and in this connection the quotations growth will be limited by this area.


    The euro continues to fall against the US dollar amid the weak volatility and the low volumes.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.1040, the next one is at 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1170, the next one is at 1.1300.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.


    Trading recommendations


    The approach to the level of 1.1040 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound target is the resistance levels of 1.1170.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    This week Markit Economics has reported the UK manufacturing and construction sectors growth that allows to count on the service sector business climate positive data output.


    The bond market can also support the "bulls": the UK 10-year bond yields increase, comparing to the US and Germany analogues, is a positive factor for the pair GBP / USD.


    Sellers lowered their price to the key level and broke down the support level of 1.5300 amid the very low volumes and the low volatility.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5400.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is falling.


    Trading recommendations


    The level of 1.5200 false test is more likely to lead to the level of 1.5300 return.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    Traders’ attention will be focused on the ISM service sector. Only the data above 57.0 will support the US dollar, otherwise we will have a small rebound downwards. The oil quotations growth will also deter "bulls" from building up long positions. In the light of this we expect the lateral trend during the day.


    The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The upward bounce potential target are 120.40 and 121.60. If the price falls it will get to 118.00.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  8. #148
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    06.03.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The US dollar has crushed its main competitors. The pair EUR/USD came under attack after the US ISM service sector positive release. In February the indicator rose to the level of 56.9 while the employment component rose to the level of 56.4 which is the highest value over the past three months and it allows us to count on the Non-Farm positive release on Friday 6 March. In addition, the dollar got the support from the ECB rates announcement and Mario Draghi’s speech. Against this background, the pair euro/dollar broke through the strong support level of 1.1040.


    During the day the pair GBP/USD was also under pressure. Markit Economics has reported about the business optimism index decrease in the US service sector while the same US index was better than the forecasted medians. The "black gold" tendency also added negativity to the overall picture in the market - the week US crude stocks have again increased which caused the major quotation reduction.


    The technical correction in the US stock market did not allow the dollar to strengthen its positions with the Japanese yen. At the end of the trading day the key benchmarks decreased by 0.5% which constrained the bulls from active attack.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    Yesterday’s main event was the ECB meeting results announcement and Mario Draghi’s perfomance. The easing monetary policy started to bear fruit - there was a high private sector credit growth in January. The euro low rate will reflect positively on the trade balance which eventually helped to reduce the unemployment rate to 11.2%. However, it is too early to talk about the economic rates growth.


    The Eurozone inflation expectations are still quite low - the German 10-year bond yields are now near historic lows and this factor will put pressure on the pair EUR/USD.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.0950, the next one is at 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1040 the next one is at 1.1170.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.


    Trading recommendations


    The downward movement potential target is 1.0790. If the price grows it will get to 1.1170.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The Gilts 10-year bond yields increase proves the best their hard work. The oil prices increase have a positive impact on the February and March CPI index. In the light of this, the regulator should not launch the monetary easing. The ISM service sector positive releases cheered bulls to short and now the US dollar looks as a favorite one.


    The UK and Germany 10-year bond yields reached 150 basis points, indicating the downward trend continuation within the pair EUR/GBP. Apparently, this factor will deter the British pound from the strong prices decline.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5400.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is falling.


    Trading recommendations


    The approach to the level of 1.5200 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound target is the resistance level of 1.5300.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The Japan and the US bond yields show insignificant fluctuations and in this connection it does not form distinct signals. After the technical correction in the US stock market we expect the bulls return amid the US positive macroeconomic statistics. This factor shall support the pair.


    The dollar growth against the yen looks uncertain. There was the strong resistance level of 119.20 breakthrough amid the low volatility and the weak volumes.


    The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    The potential increase targets are two levels of resistance: 120.40, 121.60.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The Swiss franc is moderately weakening against the dollar. On Wednesday the US dollar updated historical highs after the solid data publication about the US employment market.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9340. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9950.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to long with the first target - 0.9750. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9950.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  9. #149
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    09.03.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The US dollar continued its winning streak - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 96.46. The pair EUR/USD set a fresh 11-year low. Investors still win back the beginning of the ECB quantitative easing program. The US and Germany 10-year bond yields once again greatly expanded and the Non-Farms release came out better then forecast that caused the pair euro/dollar quotations decrease.


    The pair GBP/USD is also under pressure, but it decreased more modestly in comparison with the major currency pair. The Bank of England left the monetary policy unchanged, but the institutional investors’ bullish sentiment towards the US dollar did not allow the British pound to strengthen its position. By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD has decreased.


    The dollar growth was going on all fronts – the pair USD/JPY increased at the end of the day. The demand for the European risky assets and encouraged bulls to long and at the moment quotations reached the level of 120.90. However, the US jobless claims negative release cooled the bulls’ ardor but the employment rate in the US rose more than economists expected.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    Last Friday main event was the February US labor market publication. The Non-Farm data output was better than it was forecasted. The positive publication was followed by the pair decrease. However, the US and Germany 10-year bond yields expansion will deter the bulls from the active attack.


    Having consolidated below the level of 1.1040, sellers actively continued to decline the euro against the US dollar amid the increased volume. The mark of 1.0925 has been broken.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is at 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925 the next one is at 1.1040.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.


    Trading recommendations


    The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.0790 soon.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The United States released a set of important macroeconomic statistics. With regard to the non-farm payrolls release - the data output was better than the forecasted medians. The trade balance disappointed traders with its weak figures which can cause the short positions profit-taking wave.


    After the strong support level of 1.5300 breakthrough which led to the bullish trend reversal, the first target was the mark of 1.5200 that had been already tested. The pair broke through the level of 1.5100 also.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5015, the next one is 1.4920. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5200.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is falling.


    Trading recommendations


    The buyers need to break below 1.5015 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.4920 will be opened after this breakthrough.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    Amid the US postive macroeconomic statistics - the bulls are going to break through the January maximum which is at the mark of 120.73. Simultaneous growth on the world leading stock markets indicates the high risk appetite which traditionally causes escape from the Japanese yen.


    Buyers broke through and fixate above the last month maximum of 120.40.


    The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    We suppose the pair will go to 121.40 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 122.40.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The pair dollar/franc will consolidate with a tendency to increase after it reached the 6-week high of 0.9755 then the pair increased to the level of 0.9858. Its dynamics was affected by the US non-farm employment data results. The pair is supported with the large-scale improved market’s attitude towards the dollar.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9950, the next one is at 1.0160.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to long with the first target - 0.9950. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0160.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  10. #150
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    10.03.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    According to the February US labor market report the US economy has created 295 thousand of new jobs in February which significantly exceeded market expectations. Moreover, the overall unemployment rate fell by 0.2% to the level of 5.5%. The positive releases encouraged traders to long with dollar.


    The greenback has lost some positions. Earlier the dollar strengthened along the whole market – at the end of the day the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trade at the mark of 97.72 that has been the highest level since October 2003. The US Treasury bond yields increased up from the level of 0.64% to 0.72% on Friday - the bond market participants are guided by the Fed earlier monetary policy tightening. Fisher, one of the prominent Fed "hawks", talked about the interest rates increase at the June monetary regulator meeting last week.


    The euro decline was intensified after the ECB President Mario Draghi’s press conference where he specifically said that that QE may be kept and after the September 2016. The pair corrected at the yesyerday’s trades.


    The pair GBP/USD decrease was intensified amid the dollar growth after the US labor market publication. Earlier the Bank of England left its monetary policy unchanged. The rates remained at the level of 0.5% while the repurchase assets volume was around £ 375 billion as it was expected. Nevertheless the pound strengthened on Monday’s trades.


    The dollar rose against the yen amid the US labor market positive report. Another factor that put pressure on the yen was the fact that China had established the economic outlook in 2015 at the level of 7% which was lower than the last year forecast of 7.5%. The Prime Minister Li Keqiang stated about it at the Parliament opening session.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    After the labor market release, according to which the unemployment rate fell down to 5.5%, the expectations regarding to the Federal Reserve monetary policy only increased The euro position looks unconvincing - the US and Germany 10-year bond yields increased by 17 basis points to the level of 185.8.


    The US labor market positive fundamental data just strengthened the bearish EUR/USD trend. The pair slightly corrected from the last week minimums.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is at 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925 the next one is at 1.1040.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    The upward bounce potential target is 1.0925. If the price falls it will get to 1.0790 and 1.0670.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The traders’ attention will be focused on the bond market dynamics. Before the US Federal Reserve meeting which is scheduled for March 17-18, the Forex market will live with rumors about the imminent monetary policy tightening. We believe that this factor shall support the US dollar.


    Sellers have broken through the two quite strong support levels: 1.5200 and 1.5100. The levels breakthrough was on the increased volume. Then the pair turned upwards and broke through the resistance level of 1.5100.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.5015. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.5200, 1.5300.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    According to the revised data, the Japan GDP growth was 1.5% on the annual basis that is lower than the previously reported GDP growth preliminary data that was 2.2%. The economists’ forecasted 2.2% as well. The US and Japan 10-year bond yields increased by 13 basis points which is a strong bullish factor for the US dollar.


    The US dollar continues to strengthen against the Japanese yen, breaking through the strong resistance level of 120.30 amid the increased trading volume.


    The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    The pair can grow to the resistance level of 121.60. After breaking 1.3665 the buyers may go to 122.40.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  11. #151
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    11.03.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The first part of the week traders fixed the US dollar long positions profits - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 97.60. The pair EUR/USD could strengthen its position to the level of 1.0906 after significant sales, but then bears returned to the market. The German 10-year bond yields declined to the US and the UK analogues which determined the single European currency destiny.


    On the contrary, at the beginning of the week the pair GBP / USD showed a growth. The pair’s sales encouraged bulls to long. The positive trend has been for two days then the pair returned to sales. The pair was trading different directed.


    The negative trade balance data and the Japan GDP for the fourth quarter allowed traders to break through the resistance level of 121.60. Due to the net imports strong growth in January, we conclude that the Japan economy has been weakening, despite the strong yen devaluation which had to strengthen export. Nevertheless the pair could not fixate above the level of 121.60 and it fell below it.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    We will pay attention to the bond market dynamics, namely to the 10- year government bond yields. The current US Treasuries and German bonds yields are at the level of 188 basis points which has been the highest level for the last 25 years which is a strong negative factor for the euro.


    The short-term price rebound was followed by the further price decline. The potential bearish trend is still preserved despite the reduced volumes.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.0670, the next one is at 1.0550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0790 the next one is at 1.0925.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.


    Trading recommendations


    The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.0670, 1.0550.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The dollar growth will negatively affect the "black gold" on the market. In this regard, the oil quotations reduction will further intensify pressure on the pound which is very sensitive to changes within the Brent varieties cost.


    The British pound returned above the resistance level of 1.5100 after it broke through it downwards. The price rebound was at the reduced volume and reached the downtrend channel upper bound of 1.5140. but the pair could not fixate above the level of 1.5100 and is trading under it.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5015, the next one is 1.4920. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5200.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The price is likely to go downward to the level of 1.4920.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The fundamental background indicates the upward trend continuation. First, the Japan trade balance negative release for January shows the overall economy and the particular industrial production weakness. The second, the foreign exchange market is now living with rumors about the Fed monetary policy tightening and this factor strongly supports the dollar.


    The resistance testing of 121.60 was followed by the very low volume. The pair returned under this level.


    The strong divergence on the volumes signals towards the just formed reversal. However, the medium-term bullish trend is still relevant from the technical point of view.


    The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    The pair is going upwards. As long as the price is trading above the level of 120.40 buyers remain strong. The bulls’ target is the level 121.60.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  12. #152
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    12.03.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The US dollar continued its winning streak in the Forex market – the US dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 98.53. Yesterday the Germany 10-year bond yields renewed the historic low that caused the pair EUR/USD new sales wave. Now the single European currency is the most unloved investors’ asset. At the end of the day the pair euro/dollar decreased, having ended the trades at the mark of 1.0534.


    The pair GBP/USD has followed its “older brother” and also finished the trading day in the negative area. The US dollar growth encouraged bears to short with Brent which contributed to the UK 10-year bond yields decrease. As a result, the trades within the pair GBP/USD ended with the price decline.


    After the 122nd figure testing the traders started profit taking in the morning with the pair USD/JPY. Early in the morning Japan published the February machinery and equipment orders release which showed a growth to the level of 28.9% on the annual basis that allows us to count on the industrial production growth in March. As a result, the trading day within the pair USD/JPY was finished with the price slight increase.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The euro is declining lower and lower and at the current time there are no factors that can change the negative trend. The oil quotations decrease sent the Germany10-year bond yields to the fresh historic low that intensifies the Old World deflationary expectations.


    There is a significant difference in the ECB and the Fed monetary policy which makes dollar a winner within the pair.


    The price reduction takes place at the increased level that signals towards the increased interest in sales.


    The price is finding the support at 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0550 the next one is at 1.0670.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.


    Trading recommendations


    The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.0420 soon.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    We expect soon the January UK industrial production release. The PMI manufacturing sector moderate growth indicates the data within the forecasted medians that will not provide a significant support to the British pound.


    Once again the US and the UK 10-year bond yields have expanded; the Brent crude oil decreased amid the US dollar revaluation that is a bearish factor for the British pound.


    The trade continues below the resistance level of 1.5015 and towards the downward channel.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.4920, the next one is 1.4800. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5015, the next one is at 1.5100.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    The potential decrease target is the resistance level of 1.4800.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The sales wave swept across the US stock market which is a negative factor for the pair dollar / yen. The US and Japan 10-year bond yields reduction can also encourage bears to short.


    The mark of 121.60 - 121.80 is the maximum in 2014. No wonder why there is a corrective price rebound downwards from this level now. It is worth noting that the price rebound was on the increased volume.


    The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    The pair is close to the strong resistance. If the pair breaks it we expect the growth to 122.40.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  13. #153
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    13.03.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The US dollar stopped its aggressive way against the main competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 99.76. The pair EUR/USD set a fresh 12-year low and then corrected. Investors continue to get rid of the Euro amid the increasing expectations that the Fed will tighten its monetary policy that led to the USA and Germany bond yields significant expansion. Nevertheless the pair euro/dollar slightly increase at the end of the day.


    The UK industrial production fell by 0.1% in January which cheered bears to short. After breaking through the support level of 1.5033, the pressure on the pound was intensified and quotations have fallen down to the level of 1.4895 after where the pair rebounded. As a result, the trading day within the pair GBP/USD finished with the prices decline.


    After the technical correction the USD/JPY bulls returned to the market and opened long positions at the attractive levels. This day there was not published Japan and the US important macroeconomic statistics – traders bought the US dollar as it is now a leader in the Forex market. As a result, the trading day within the pair dollar/yen finished with the quotations growth.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The euro is heavily undervalued now. On the other hand, the United States released the retail sales report. We count on the retail sector high demand amid the labor market positive data. In the light of this we may expect the bearish trend continuation. The US and German 10-year bond yields are testing the multi-year highs.


    Unilaterally, the US dollar weakened against the euro. The downtrend is followed with a slight correction amid the increased volume.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.0550, the next one is at 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0670 the next one is at 1.0790.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    We suppose the pair will go to 1.0670 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.0790.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The traders’ attention will be focused on the UK January trade balance release and the Bank of England governor’s speech. The pound strong quotations growth against the euro makes the British goods less competitive in the Old World.


    On the contrary, the United States can please traders with the retail sales positive data.


    The price declined amid the increased volume which led to the strong support level of 1.4920 breakthrough.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.4800, the next one is 1.4650. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4920, the next one is at 1.5015.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.5015. The approach to the level of 1.5015 may lead to a price rebound down.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The US positive macroeconomic statistics will encourage bulls to long. Investors have again "risk appetite" that is a negative factor for the Japanese yen.


    The upward trend near the resistance level of 121.60 was stopped. The formed consolidation below the level will lead to the downward correction in the short term.


    The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    The potential decrease target is the support level of 120.40.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The dollar continued to strengthen against the Swiss franc and rose above the parity value, rising close the level of1.0160.


    However, the upward impulse was not strong enough and it could not move above the rate.
    Additional pressure on the franc received amid the rumors that the Swiss National Bank considered the key interest rate decrease.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9950, the next one is at 0.9750. The price is finding the resistance at 1.0160.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to long with the first target – 1.0160.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  14. #154
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    16.03.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The US dollar strengthened against its major competitors after a slight decrease - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 99.30. During the day the pair EUR/USD was in demand amid the US weak macroeconomic statistics. The retail sales release disappointed traders with its weak data which the profit taking. However the pair euro/dollar has again decreased at the end of the day.


    The oil prices, the UK and the US bond yields decrease provoked the British pound bearish rally. The EUR/GBP "shorts" closing also added negativity to the bulls within the "cable". At the end of the day the pair GBP/USD decreased.


    The pair USD/JPY has shown a side tendency. The US retail sales negative release lowered the quotations to the mark of 120.65 where bulls started to long based on the uptrend continuation. As a result, the trading day ended with the quotations growth.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The dollar index basket (USDX) reached the level of 100.06, indicating the steady bullish trend. However, the US retail sales weak release can cool the bears’ enthusiasm. The dollar revaluation with the low consumer demand threatens the inflation growth. In this regard, we expect the FOMC conservative rhetoric on March 18 that can trigger the mass shorts fixation with the euro/dollar.


    The downtrend might be stopped at the level of 1.0500 in the short term. There was formed the upward correction to the downtrend channel upper bound of 1.0670 from this level. Then the pair rebounded downwards from the level of 1.0670 and broke through the level of 1.0550.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.0420, the next one is at 1.0280. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0550 the next one is at 1.0670.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    The buyers need to break above 1.0670 for a correction growth. If the price fixates below the support 1.0420, it may continue the downward trend in the short term.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    We expect the downward trend development. The US moderately positive macroeconomic statistics will support small demand for the US dollar. The UK 10-year bond yields are reducing in relation to its main German and the US competitors which is a bearish factor for the "cable".


    The strong resistance level of 1.4800 which has recently acted in a supporting role was broken downwards amid the strong volume.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.4650, the next one is 1.4500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4800, the next one is at 1.4920.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.4800, 1.4920.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The US stock market responded positively to the poor statistics as the retail sales decrease will restrain inflation and thus the Fed will not rush to tighten the monetary policy. The best example of this situation is the US Treasury bonds market - after publication the government 2-years securities fell sharply downwards which reflect expectations, concerning the Fed rate.


    The whole week the trade has been held towards the sideway channel, the key level is the mark of 121.20.


    The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    We suppose the pair will go to 121.60 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 122.40.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The pair is under pressure from the deteriorated market’s attitude towards the dollar and demand for the Swiss currency within the growing pair franc/yen. The pair potential reduction is constrained by the Switzerland negative interest rates, the intervention threat by the Swiss National Bank with the franc sales and the correction position.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9950, the next one is at 0.9750. The price is finding the resistance at 1.0160.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to long with the first target – 1.0290.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  15. #155
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    17.03.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The US dollar stopped its winning streak - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 100.20, setting earlier the fresh 11-year high. The pair EUR/USD was under pressure due to the energy prices decrease. The Brent oil quotations fell by 4.4%. Against this negative background, the pair euro/dollar decreased. Nevertheless the pair recovered some losses at the end of the day.


    The UK 10-year bond yields decrease to its US and Germany increased pressure on the GBP/USD. The oil market sales and the British pound strong growth against the euro make the Mark Carney’s statements about the UK monetary policy easing very realistic. However after a decrease the pair pound/dollar grew.


    On the first trading day the US dollar managed to strengthen against its Japanese competitor – the pair USD/JPY showed a consolidation at the end of the day. This symbolic increase is explained by the US stock market weakness after the US producer price index negative macroeconomic statistics and the consumer sentiment releases from the University of Michigan.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The US ISM manufacturing index has been showing decline for four consecutive months, indicating the industrial production slowdown. Mark that the ISM manufacturing sector employment component fell to its lowest level in February since April 2014.


    The euro has been actively updating the price lows the third week in a row. The price decrease was followed with the increased volumes. The pair slightly grew and broke through the resistance level of 1.0550.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.0550, the next one is at 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0670 the next one is at 1.0790.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    The downward movement will be continued amid the Chief of the ECB M. Draghi’s speach. The pair may go to 1.0420 and 1.0280 soon.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The cross-rate EUR/GBP short positions closing will put little pressure on the British pound. However, the US industrial production moderately negative release for February will deter bears from active sales. The UK bond yields declined in relation to the US and Germany analogues, indicating the low demand for the British pound.


    The downward trend was stopped at the mark of 1.4730. Taking into consideration the first trading day weak volatility, the correction was formed. The resistance level of 1.4800 was broken through.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.4800, the next one is 1.4650. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4920, the next one is at 1.5015.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    The sellers need to break below 1.4800 for a steady decrease. The way to the marks of 1.4650, 1.4500 will be opened after this breakthrough.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    Risk appetite returned to investors which will support the demand for the pair. However, today we should not count on the strong price growth – the US moderately negative macroeconomic statistics will act as a deterrent for the bulls. Industrial production is a cyclical indicator and its reduction indicates the economic growth slowdown.


    The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The upward bounce potential target are 122.40. If the price falls it will get to 119.20.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  16. #156
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    18.03.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The US dollar was under pressure - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 99.55. During the day the pair EUR/USD was in demand amid the US negative macroeconomic statistics. The industrial production release went worse than the forecasted medians that cheered bulls to long. In the light of this, the pair euro/dollar increased at the end of the day.


    During the day the GBP/USD was in demand as well. The US industrial production weak macroeconomic statistics once again showed that the Fed does not need to rush the interest rates increase. However, at the end of day the pair GBP/USD quotations decreased.


    Yesterday there was the lateral trend within the pair USD/JPY. On the one hand, the US industrial production weak release is a negative factor for the bulls. On the other hand, the more negative releases now come from overseas the more likely that the Fed will again hold conservative views and this factor will support the demand for the stock markets.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The traders’ attention will be focused on the German ZEW index data publication. In March the ZEW current conditions index changed to 55.1 from 45.5 while the ZEW expectations index increased to 54.8 from 53.0. In addition the euro area data showed that the CPI came out with the + 0.6% m/m -0.3% y/y in February.


    There was a corrective price rebound upwards from the support level of 1.0455 with the following level of 1.0550 breakthrough.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.0550, the next one is at 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0670 the next one is at 1.0790.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    The upward bounce potential target is 1.0670. If the price falls it will get to 1.0420.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The UK 10-year bond yields have been declining for four consecutive trading days regarding to their US and Germany counterparts that is a negative factor for the "cable" and will put pressure on the British pound. The low oil prices make the UK key rate decline a real event and against this background we mark the bearish sentiment predominance.


    The corrective growth broke through the resistance level of 1.4800. The pair was not able to fixate above this level and decreased below it. The upward correction volumes were in the reduced zone.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.4650, the next one is 1.4500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4800, the next one is at 1.4920.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is falling.


    Trading recommendations


    The approach to the level of 1.4800 may lead to a price consolidation followed by a rebound down. The potential rebound target is the support level of 1.4650.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The Bank of Japan governor, Kuroda said that the probability of inflation increase to 2% in 2015 is very high. The salaries increase is important for the inflation growth to 2%. Kuroda noted that the oil prices decline was unexpected, the oil prices decrease influences the inflation in Japan that will be weakened by autumn.


    More than a week the price has been consolidating below the resistance level of 121.60. This fact gives a good signal for the further bullish trend confirmation.


    The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The buyers need to break above 121.60 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 122.40 will be opened after this breakthrough.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  17. #157
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    19.03.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The main market attention was directed to the Fed meeting release and to the Ms. Yellen speech. Yellen did not say anything concrete about the rates. Yellen’s speech did not support the dollar and it fell temporally. During the day the pair EUR/USD was in demand amid the Germany business climate moderately positive release from the ZEW institute. The indicator has been showing growth for 5 consecutive months and went out to the highest level since February 2014. The release points out to the investors’ positive expectations about the Eurozone locomotive prospects. At the end of the day the pair euro/dollar increased.


    Yesterday the pair GBP/USD was under pressure as well. The EUR/GBP short positions closing has increased after the ZEW institute publication which caused the pound decrease. But then bears took profit that caused the technical rebound in the market. At the end of the day the pair GBP/USD grew.


    The pair USD/JPY has been in a narrow flat for three trading days. At the end of the day the US weak macroeconomic statistics supported bears.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The key week day has come for the entire Forex market. Late at night the Fed announced its two-day meeting monetary policy results. The inflation, retail sales and industrial production macroeconomic releases clearly point out to the lack of appropriate monetary tightening.


    The level of 1.0550 breakthrough was followed by the price increase to the resistance level of 1.0670. The level testing has led to the consolidation formation. Then the break upwards though this level happened.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.0670, the next one is at 1.0550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0790 the next one is at 1.0925.


    The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden Cross”.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.0790. After breaking 1.0790 the buyers may go to 1.0925.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The Bank of England monetary policy last meeting minutes did not support the British pound. In early March the unemployment reduction with the average earnings growth have intensified the UK inflation expectations. From the American monetary regulator, on the contrary, we expected "pigeon" rhetoric in relation to the monetary policy tightening.


    The support level of 1.4650 has twice stopped the sellers. The first level testing was followed by a slight correction upwards; the second one has led to the short-term consolidation and a sharp increase.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.4650, the next one is 1.4500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4800, the next one is at 1.4880.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward moveent and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    The buyers need to break above 1.4920 for a steady growth. The way to the marks 1.5015, 1.5100 will be opened after this breakthrough.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The trading has been held for seven days amid the weak volatile consolidation in anticipation of the strong news – the Fed economic forecasts, the Federal Open Market Committee FOMC statement, the Fed Chairman Yellen speech which came out yesterday. Yellen did not say anything concrete about the rates changes. Yellen’s vague statements did not support the dollar at all.


    The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.


    The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is falling.


    Trading recommendations


    The potential decrease targets are the support levels: 120.40, 119.20.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  18. #158
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    20.03.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The trading week central event was news when the FED announced its two-day meeting monetary policy results. The weak macroeconomic statistics does not leave the FED any choice but not to rush with the interest rate growth.


    The Fed lowered its forecast to the current year average rate: 0.625% instead of 1.125% as it was expected in December 2014. The GDP and inflation forecasts for the next three years also have been decreased. The FOMC governor Janet Yellen pointed out to the strong dollar as the main reason for the weak exports. Against this background, we have seen massive longs closure within the US dollar and the main dollar competitors’ strong growth. However the dollar recovered at the yesterday’s trades.


    The Eurozone has not published any important reports. Of course the US Federal Reserve accompanying statement will contribute to the dynamics. But now we should not count on the euro substantial growth because of the fact that the difference in the regulators’ sentiments is too high. The trades on the EUR/USD closed with a decrease.


    The UK has not published any important report. It should also be noted that the salary average level data showed a decline, suggesting the inflation pressure further decrease, although, the pound has showed its growth. The growth was short-term and the pair pound/dollar decreased again.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The Fed has sent the dollar into the knockout. The shorts global closure at forex and commodity markets indicates the US dollar corrective movement development. The United States has published the last year payments balance report for the 4th quarter. During this period the US dollar has risen by 5% in relation to its main competitors (USDX) which has a negative impact on the trade balance. Nevertheless, the dollar recovered its losses.


    Buyers were able to revise the price to 1.0925. The test turned out to be short-term and was followed by the active decrease. The support levels of 1.0790 and 1.0670 were broken.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.0550, the next one is at 1.0420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0670 the next one is at 1.0790.


    The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    The potential decrease target is the support level of 1.0550.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The 4th quarter payments balance weak release will increase pressure on the dollar. Traders significantly overestimated the UK labor market moderately negative release. The unemployment remained at the same level as the average earnings have declined, but the employment growth by the ILO methodology indicates the positive trend continuation the next months.


    The pair pound/dollar has tested the strong resistance level of 1.5100 for its strength. The level testing was at the increased volume, but without breakthrough. The pair rebounded downwards and broke through the support levels of 1.5015, 1.4920, 1.4800.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.4650, the next one is 1.4500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4800, the next one is at 1.4920.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    We believe the falling will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.4650.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The US stock market responded positively to the FOMC meeting results. The Fed does not rush to tighten monetary policy and bulls once again rushed to the stock market. Institutional investors will continue to be funded with the cheap yen which will put pressure on the Japanese currency. The US payments balance negative release will freeze the bulls’ enthusiasm for a time. However, the pair grew again.


    The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.


    The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    The pair can grow to the resistance level of 121.60. After breaking 1.3665 the buyers may go to 122.40.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The Swiss National Bank monetary policy decision can affect the pair USD/CHF dynamics. It is expected that the central bank will maintain the same position. The pair is under the market negative attitude pressure, demand for the Swiss franc within the growing pair franc/yen and the Switzerland ZEW economic sentiment indicator growth to -37.9 in March from -73.0 in February.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9950, the next one is at 1.0160.


    The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is increasing.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to long with the first target - 0.9950. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0160.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  19. #159
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    23.03.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    We saw the volatility hike within the major pairs last week. After the US dollar strong weakening and the Fed meeting results announcement- the dollar was able to compensate some of the lost. Investors again rushed to long with the US dollar at the attractive levels. Only the 4th quarter US last year payment balance release is worth noting - the deficit increased by 113.5 billion dollars which confirms the dollar negative revaluation effect for the economy. The current year first quarter also does not promise anything good to the US and against this background, the remaining spring months the US dollar will be extremely difficult to rise up.


    The euro market the was determined after the fact that the ECB launched the quantitative easing program. The liquidity injections will put pressure on the European currency for a long time.


    Great Britain stands almost on the same level with the United States in regard with the regulators’ attitude towards the monetary policy course. Although Carney said that there was no reason to rush with the monetary policy tightening, the situation could change at any time and the Bank of England may start the interest rate increase.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    By the end of 2014 the US payments balance had increased by 412.93 billion dollars. The UK and Germany 10-year negative bond yields continued their decline which can spur demand for the EUR/GBP cross-rate and this face is positive for the euro.


    The US dollar returned back its position on the increased volume. The price decreased to the support level of 1.0670. The pair rebounded from this level and rose above the resistance level of 1.0790.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is at 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925 the next one is at 1.1050.


    There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    The price is likely to go to the support level of 1.0670.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The UK 10-year bond yields are rapidly falling relative to their United States and Germany counterparts which put pressure on the "cable". However, if the Brent crude oil quotes begin an upward movement, the pound will also be able to compensate some lost ground.


    The price decline was on the increased volume and it decreased to the support near 1.4800. The price has broken the support level of 1.4800 for five times, but for short time. This time the pair rebounded upwards again and broke through the resistance level of 1.4800 and 1.4920.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.4920, the next one is 1.4800. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5015, the next one is at 1.5100.


    The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.


    The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    The pair can fall to the support level of 1.4800. After breaking 1.4800 the sellers may go to 1.4650.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    In the absence of the US and Japan important macroeconomic statistics traders may focus their attention to the bond market dynamics. The FOMC "dovish" rhetoric opens the way for the US stock market to the new highs that will strengthen demand for the risky assets and therefore the "safe- haven" yen will be unattractive for traders.


    Sellers tried to break through the strong support level of 120.40. But the pair could not fixate below and rebounded upwards. The growth was short term and the pair fell again and broke through the support level of 120.40.


    The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.


    Trading recommendations


    The potential growth target is the resistance level of 121.60.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The market’s negative attitude towards the franc is caused by the Swiss National Bank decision, made up on the last week, to leave interest rates at the level of 0.75%, its inflation forecast for 2015 and 2016 and the bank statement about its readiness to prevent the franc growth. The pair is also supported by the market improving attitude towards the dollar.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9950, the next one is at 1.0160.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to long with the first target - 0.9950. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0160.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  20. #160
    ValdisTF


    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    24.03.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The US dollar was under pressure - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day at the mark of 98. There was not any important macroeconomic statistics. On Friday traders continued to take profits with longs. Last week the Federal Reserve made it clear to investors that a strong dollar is an obstacle to the sustainable economic growth. In the light of this traders got rid of the US dollar and there was a steady demand for the major currencies. The pair EUR/USD has grown, the pair GBP/USD consolidated, and the pair USD/JPY decreased at the end of the day.


    The current week economic calendar must be in favor of the US dollar. According to the IMM CFTC the market is still holding excessively long dollar positions. Disappointment in the business activity or inflation can bring to the next phase the dollar longs reduction in the short term. However, the dollar should keep the bullish trend in the medium-term, taking into consideration the monetary policy difference between the US and the major competing countries.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    This week we expect the Germany economic indicators activity and the US inflation publication. Traders do not rush with the positions opening amid the coming news. At the end of the last week, the euro showed a steady growth which lays a good foundation for the positive trend continuation.


    Buyers have come to the resistance level of 1.0925 for the second time on the increased volume and broke it upwards. The formed consolidation in this level area can cause a slight rebound downwards.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.0790. The price is finding the resistance at 1.1050.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    The downward bounce potential target is 1.0790. The support level of 1.0790 testing will be followed by the euro growth.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The UK manufacturing sector shows a growth that allows us to count on the British Industry Confederation positive release. On the contrary, the United States will not please traders with the strong macroeconomic data. It is observed the Germany and the UK 10-year bond yields reduction on the bond market which will act as a deterrent for the bulls.


    The pair is trading around the level of 1.4920.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.4920, the next one is 1.4800. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5015, the next one is at 1.5100.


    The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.


    The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The buyers need to break above 1.5015 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.5100 will be opened after this breakthrough.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    Investors still have "risk appetite" which will put pressure on the Japanese yen as the funding currency. American benchmarks are set to test the historic highs which is a bullish factor for the pair. The current levels are attractive for investors who count on the uptrend continuation.


    The pair broke through the channel lower bound of 120.40-122.00 and continues its corrective decline.


    The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.


    Trading recommendations


    The price is likely to go to the support level of 119.20.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



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