"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


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  1. #121
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    27.01.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The US dollar stopped its winning streak. Earlier the index dollar basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 95.00. The ECB large-scale incentives program led to the euro considerable sales and after the German manufacturing sector business climate negative release the bearish EUR/USD trend has accelerated. The Greece elections results also had a negative impact on the euro exchange rate. Nevertheless the pair slightly increased on Monday.


    The pair GBP/USD was not able to get support from the UK sudden strong retail sales release. The retail sales rose by 0.4% in December while the consensus forecast predicted its growth by 0.6%. The average earnings growth and the unemployment reduction have a positive impact on the UK consumers. However, despite this positive factor - the British pound was hardly able to demonstrate its growth near the resistance level of 1.5100 which indicates the strong sellers’ presence that holds back the bulls’ onslaught.


    After the three days growth in the world's leading stock markets bulls took profits on the long positions that supported demand for the "safe haven" yen. It should also be noted that there was demand for the US high-tech assets which is a positive factor for the stock market.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The new trading week began with a gap fallowed by a slight correction. The decrease was amid the parliamentary elections were held on Sunday in Greece. The Athens radical policy change is able to cause severe volatility and hurt the euro. In the first half of the day the traders ‘attention will be focused on the Germany business climate publication from the IFO institute.


    There was the downward channel lower bound breakthrough near 1.1400. The fact that the price left the channel limits, where it has been for six weeks, indicates the bearish trend strengthening. The pair tested the level of 1.1170 and rebounded upwards.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.1170, the next one is at 1.1040. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1400.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    The approach to the level of 1.1300 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the support levels of 1.1170, 1.1040.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The traders ‘disregard towards the UK retail sales positive release points out to the strong bearish trend. Despite the fact that quarterly sales showed maximum growth over the past 12 years - the British pound was hardly able to consolidate near the resistance level of 1.5100.


    There was the level breakthrough of 1.5100 which currently stands as the strong resistance. It is worth noting that the level breakthrough of 1.5100 was amid the low volumes.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5015, the next one is 1.4920. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5200.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    We believe the growth will be continued now. The first targets are the levels of 1.5200 and 1.5300.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The December Japan trade balance shall not support bears very much. The Japanese yen devaluation and the seasonal factor indicate the trade deficit reduction. However, the industrial production weakness cannot allow us to rely on the strong export growth. In this regard, the data can be expected at the level of consensus forecast.


    There was the resistance level of 118.00 breakthrough which is now followed by the growing prices.


    The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    The potential growth target is the resistance level of 119.20. Having tested the first target the price might go downwards to 117.00.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  2. #122
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    28.01.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The pair EUR/USD opened the trading week with a gap downwards amid the Greece news about the Radical Left Coalition victory. But then traders quickly leveled the gap and the European trades have already started from a blank slate. Traders decided to take profits on the short positions as the single European currency was at the 11-year low. The pair rose from this level.


    GBP/USD traders closed decided to take profit as well. Traders reacted very emotionally to the WSJ interview by the Bank of England Forbes representative who pointed out the need to tighten monetary policy. Against this background, bulls were able to break through the strong resistance level of 1.5100 and to move the price to the level of 1.5200 where it stabilized.


    The December Japan positive trade balance release failed to provide a firm support for the Japanese yen - negative balance amounted to 660.7 billion yen in December that came out better than traders had expected. At the moment the pair USD/JPY reached the level of 117.28, then bulls returned to the market and began to build up long positions at the attractive levels. Confident demand on the world's leading stock markets has supported bulls. Nevertheless, the pair could not fixate above the level of 118.00.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    We expect the pair EUR/GBP growth amid the UK 4th quarter weak GDP report which in turn will have a positive impact on the pair euro/dollar. While the US durable goods orders release can come out worse than the forecasted medians.


    We should not rely on the euro strong growth in terms of deflation and increased political risks that are coming from Greece.


    The mark of 1.1170 was the starting point for the upward correction which is not supported by the trade volumes now.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    The potential growth target is the resistance level of 1.1520. Having tested this target the price might go downwards to 1.1300.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    All traders’ attention will be focused on the 4th quarter UK GDP release. On the one hand, the manufacturing and service sector slowdown points out to the weak report. On the other hand, the average earnings growth and the unemployment reduction spurred private consumption. The Bank of England economists expect growth by 0.6%.


    Buyers correct the price upwards amid the lower volumes. There is the strong resistance level of 1.5100 breakthrough and the level of 1.5200 testing amid the formed correction.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.5015. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    The level of 1.5200 test may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.5015, 1.4920.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    Traders shall focus their attention on the stock markets dynamics amid the absence of Japan interesting macroeconomic releases. Yesterday the US, Asian and the European equity were steadily growing, indicating demand for risky assets.


    The flat within a rectangular corridor continues. The price is trading around the level of 118.00 for the two last weeks.


    The price is finding the first support at 117.00, the next one is at 115.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 118.00, the next one is at 119.20.


    The price is on the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    There are the low trading volumes. The strong support level 117.00 test could be followed by a consolidation.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  3. #123
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    29.01.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The US dollar lost some ground against its major competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 94.20. The pair EUR/USD was in demand amid the US durable goods orders negative macroeconomic statistics. The sales declined by 3.4% in December while the market expected growth by 0.6%. We should mention the fact that traders ignored the US strong consumer confidence and new home sales data. Apparently, traders consider that the euro is strongly oversold and liquidated short positions.


    The UK weak GDP data for the 4th quarter could not encourage bears to open the large number of short positions. The final indicator was 0.5% that is slightly below the traders’ expectations. The manufacturing sector and the service sector weakness have had a significant negative impact on the UK economic growth.


    The pair USD/JPY was under pressure amid the profit-taking on global stock markets long positions. However, after the US positive new buildings sales and consumer confidence releases we saw steady demand for the US dollar. It is worth noting the Conference Board report which showed the private consumption growth up to the level of 102.9 p. in January. Nevertheless the pair slightly fell at the end of the trades, but did not exit the range.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    Undoubtedly, this week the key event is the US Federal Reserve meeting. The US 10-year bond yields are at the level of 1.81%, indicating the inflation reduction in the short term.


    The euro is consolidating after it was actively correcting against the US dollar, rebounding from the support level of 1.1170. The formed price increase is not supported by the trade volumes.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The approach to the level of 1.1400 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the support levels of 1.1300, 1.1170.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    Traders ignored the UK weak economic growth release which jeopardizes the bearish trend development. In this regard, the statements made by the Fed last night will determine the pair GBP/USD future dynamics.


    The support level of 1.5015 stopped the pound downward trend. The formed correction will enable buyers to raise the price to the daily resistance level of 1.5200.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.5015. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.


    There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    After the trend line 1.5200 breakthrough upward the way to the support 1.5300 will be opened.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    Quotations decline below the level of 118.00 should be used to build up long positions. The commodity market sales with the relatively low wages growth rate in 2014 indicate the inflationary pressure compression in the United States for the first quarter of this year.


    Having not reached the level of 119.20, the correctional price growth stopped above the level of 118.00, going to a consolidation.


    The price is finding the first support at 117.00, the next one is at 115.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 118.00, the next one is at 119.20.


    The price is on the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The upward movement potential target is 119.20. If the price falls it will get to 115.80.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  4. #124
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    30.01.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    There was the central event of the week - the US Federal Reserve announced the monetary policy meeting results. In anticipation of this event the major pairs consolidated as traders refrained from active trading. The monetary regulator pointed out to the fact that we should not expect the first rate hike within the federal funds till June. The short-term inflation forecasts have been revised downwards, it was noted the labor market rapid recovery. The FOMC representatives consider the energy prices decrease as a favorable factor for the household expenditure increase that will maintain high economic growth. It should also be noted that the decision to leave interest rates unchanged was unanimous while the FOMC three representatives voted for monetary policy tightening at the meeting in December 2014.


    Despite the Fed conservative rhetoric, traders were in no hurry to liquidate long positions within the US dollar. The dollar significantly increased only against the pound.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    On the one hand, the Fed has kept the promise of "patience" in relation to the rates increase. This factor is negative for the US dollar. On the other hand, the euro area inflation expectations are much worse than the UK ones. The main event of the day will be the Germany consumer price index data release.


    Buyers reached the level of 1.1400 amid the reduced volume.


    The price consolidation near the resistance level of 1.1300 is more likely to serve as a signal for the upward correction reversal.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.1170 soon.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    Today the UK will not please traders with the positive data and in this regard we can expect the side trend continuation during the day. The fundamental background remains mixed - the FOMC negative pigeon rhetoric for the dollar and the Brent inability to consolidate above the psychological level of $ 50 put pressure on the British pound.


    Two daily correctional pound growth was stopped by the downtrend channel upper bound of 1.5200. The upper bound testing resulted led to the continued consolidation followed by the decrease under the level of 1.5100.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5015, the next one is 1.4920. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5200.


    There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    We suppose the pair will go to 1.5015 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.4920.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    Traders shall focus their attention on the stock market dynamics amid the Japan and the US important macroeconomic statistics. The Fed “patience” lowered the two-year Treasury bond yields below 0.5% and now we can expect the upward trend development.


    Traders have been testing the strong resistance level of 118.00 for five consecutive days. The short-term breaks are followed by the constant price rebounds downwards.


    The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.


    There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is increasing.


    Trading recommendations


    After the trend line 118.00 breakthrough down the way to the supports 117.00, 115.80 will be opened.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  5. #125
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    01.02.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The US dollar looked quite cheerful amid its main competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 94.82. The pair EUR/USD has enjoyed moderate demand despite the Eurozone negative statistics. The Germany CPI release pointed out that the Old World largest economy came into deflation. This report indicates that we should not expect pleasant surprises on the Eurozone CPI tomorrow. At the moment the quotes reached the level of 1.1367 after which there was a technical rebound.


    After the US positive jobless claims release - bears made a powerful attack on the pair GBP/USD. The previous week figure exceeded the traders’ expectations by 43 thousand that allows to count on the labor market positive data release at the beginning of the week. The CRB commodity index has once again showed a downward trend which also supported demand for the US dollar. By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD decreased.


    Despite the demand for the US corporate bonds with the positive overseas jobless claims release for the last week earlier encouraged bulls cheered for the "longs" opening within the pair USD/JPY, during the day traders systematically built up short positions that allowed to finish the trading day with the quotations decrease.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    Germany came into deflation and now the euro bulls remained without support. Today it is difficult to expect surprises from the Eurozone CPI release. Last week the ECB President Mario Draghi signaled about the risk balance for the first quarter of 2015 shifted towards the negative direction.


    The euro corrective rise from the support level of 1.1170 turned into the flat framework of 1.1385 - 1.1275. The trade is at the low volumes, still the pair is heading towards the downward channel.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.1170, the next one is at 1.1040. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1400.


    There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The approach to the level of 1.1400 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the support levels of 1.1170, 1.1040.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The main event of the day is the 4th quarter US GDP release. All macroeconomic releases from October to December showed the US economic growth high rate that allows us to rely on the data release better than the consensus forecast. Last week we received the UK GDP data and the quarterly growth by 0.5% will be quite weak amid the US strong growth.


    The pound corrective growth was stopped by the mark of 1.5200. The mark testing was followed by the consolidation with the following rebounds downwards.


    The target has already been achieved by the support level of 1.5100 breakthrough, and the level of 1.5015 was tested.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5015, the next one is 1.4920. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5200.


    There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    We may expect the fall towards 1.4920 and 1.4800 where the pair may stop, further on we expect a consolidation.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The traders’ attention will be focused on the Japan inflation release. The strong energy prices decline with the weak consumer demand does not allow us to count on the positive news.


    The sellers reduced the price to the strong support level of 117.00 amid the very low volume that has already turned the downward trend upwards for four times.


    The price is finding the first support at 117.00, the next one is at 115.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 118.00, the next one is at 119.20.


    The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    The level of 117.00 retest is more likely to lead to a consolidation. Then we expect the upward movement.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The franc stopped to suffer losses and started a consolidation while the dollar index has reached the maximum level for the last 10 years amid expectations that the Fed was the only major central bank which was ready to raise interest rates.


    Additional support for the US dollar caused the US labor market release. The jobless claims have reached the 15 years low.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9150, the next one is at 0.8940. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9340, the next one is at 0.9540.


    The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to long with the first target - 0.9340. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9540.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  6. #126
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    03.02.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The US dollar continued to strengthen against its major competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 94.87. During the day the pair EUR/USD was under pressure after the euro area weak inflation data. According to the preliminary estimates the CPI decline has accelerated and the Old World deflationary disease is developing at full speed. As a result, the trade within the euro/dollar finished with the quotations slight increase in the consolidation range.


    The UK 10- year bond yields sharp decline acted as a major factor for the British pound sales against the US dollar. The Gilts yields installed a fresh 5-year minimum that is a bearish factor for the pair GBP/USD. Even the US GDP moderately negative data for the 4th quarter was unable to reverse the negative trend. By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had decreased.


    The Japan moderate positive macroeconomic statistics encouraged bears to open the "shorts". The inflation was 0.1% in December that came better than forecasted medians, despite the household expenditure negative release. Traders ignored the personal consumption weak data and focused their attention on the CPI report. The US GDP strong release was unable to support bulls and they were disappointed. Growth in the 4th quarter amounted to 2.6% instead of the expected growth by 3%. Pressure on the dollar was growing and finally the trading day ended with the quotations decrease.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The United States will publish the manufacturing sector ISM report. The low demand for the commodity market makes us think that we will get the release within the forecasted medians. In this regard, the US dollar bulls will remain without strengths and we can expect the moderate demand for the single European currency.


    The most part of the last week the trade was within the flat after a slight upward correction to the support level of 1.1170. The flat continued on Monday.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.


    There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The level of 1.1400 test is more likely to lead to the support levels of 1.1300, 1.1170 return.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The UK manufacturing sector last 2014 quarter was very weak and amid the euro zone economy weakness it is difficult to expect positive changes. We can expect the news slightly worse than the forecast which will have some pressure on the British pound.


    There was a short-term resistance level of 1.5100 testing amid the low volumes. The level testing was followed by the price rebound downwards with the following testing and fixating above the support near 1.5015.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5015, the next one is 1.4920. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5200.


    There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    The potential growth target is the resistance level of 1.5200. The strong resistance level 1.5200 test will be followed by a consolidation.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    In the absence of important macroeconomic statistics, the traders’ attention will be focused on the Japanese stock market dynamics. The US GDP moderately negative release for the fourth quarter will encourage bears to open short positions on the Tokyo Stock Exchange Market. We can expect the ISM index within the forecasted medians that cannot cause strong reaction from the traders’ part.


    The trading week opening within this instrument was followed by a gap. Due to the price gap sellers tested the support the level of 117.00, but they could not consolidate under this level. Within two hours the gap was closed.


    The price is finding the first support at 117.00, the next one is at 115.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 118.00, the next one is at 119.20.


    There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    The approach to the level of 117.00 may lead to a price rebound up. The potential rebound target is the resistance level of 118.00.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The Swiss franc fell after the central bank let the exchange rate become free in mid-January. The reason for the last week decrease caused the comments by Jean-Pierre Danthine, the Swiss central bank vice-president that the regulator was ready for intervention.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9150, the next one is at 0.8940. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9340, the next one is at 0.9540.


    The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an horizontal movement.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to long with the first target - 0.9540. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  7. #127
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    04.02.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    During the day the pair EUR/USD enjoyed a demand amid the US negative macroeconomic statistics. The ISM manufacturing index showed decline to the level of 53.5 in January which is the lowest level since March 2013. The manufacturing sector weakness is a negative factor for the economic growth and against this background traders get rid of the US dollar.


    The UK moderately positive manufacturing PMI was able to support the GBP/USD bulls. The UK 10-year bond yields increase negates all the traders’ efforts who rely on the strong uptrend. Moreover, the British Gilts and the German Bund bond yields enhances demand for the pair which also puts pressure on the British pound. Nevertheless the pound grew amid the dollar weakness.


    The US ISM manufacturing sector weak release encouraged bears to short with USD/JPY. The US industry business activity has been declining for two consecutive months which is the first wake-up call. It should also be noted the manufacturing sector employment decline according to the ISM. The negative background caused not only the US dollar decrease, but also hit the US stock market - leading indices have updated the last week minimum values.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    During the day the pair can show a moderate effect amid the two key factors. Firstly, during the two days we have seen the "black gold" growth which is a negative factor for the US dollar. Secondly, the UK and German 10-year bond yields reduction encouraged bulls to long which will also support the single European currency.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1520, the next one is at 1.1590.


    There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    The price is likely to go to the resistance level of 1.1590.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    Markit Economics will publish the UK second release – for this time we will obtain the construction sector data. On the one hand, the Bank of England has reported about the approved mortgage applications number increase in December. The UK average earnings growth has a positive impact on the consumer activity. On the other hand, the mortgage loans volume has been declining for five consecutive months, according to the British Bankers' Association that the construction industry decrease cannot allow us to count on the strong data release.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.5015. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.


    There is a non-confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.5300.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    In the absence of any important macroeconomic statistics we should expect the moderate upward trend. After the January sales in the US stock markets we can expect the bulls’ return. The current levels are
    attractive for medium-term positions and this factor will support demand for the pair.


    The price is finding the first support at 117.00, the next one is at 115.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 118.00, the next one is at 119.20.


    There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    The potential increase target is the resistance level of 118.00.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The pressure on the Swiss franc was caused by the SNB messages that the SNB would informally keep
    the franc against the euro within a specific corridor.


    The US dollar was supported by the US labor market report. Nevertheless the franc slightly strengthened at the end of the day.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9150, the next one is at 0.8940. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9340, the next one is at 0.9540.


    There is a non-confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to long with the first target - 0.9340. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9340.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  8. #128
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    05.02.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The dollar exchange rate stabilized after the most powerful decrease for the last year that was caused by the commodity producing countries currency growth. The day was not rich with important macroeconomic statistics that suggests the beginning of the global dollar correction. We should also mention the bullish rally in two key commodity markets assets: copper increased by 3.8%, the Brent oil rose up by 4.7%. At the same time, it is more difficult for the Fed officials to ignore external factors and other central banks actions.


    The euro is decreasing against the dollar after a significant increase during the previous session, supported by hopes for the Greek debt situation compromise. The Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras assured international lenders that he did not want to create conflicts in Europe.


    The pound also strengthened against the dollar. The trend is developing in favor of the pound on the bond market: the UK 10-year bond yields are growing in relation to the US and German securities which is a bullish factor.


    The dollar has grown against the yen due to the US and the Japanese stock market bond yields increase.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The first medium-term correction phase is in the midst of its peak and now it is fatal to open the "shorts" within the euro. The traders’ attention will be focused on the December euro zone retail sales publication. The retail sector sales decrease was traditionally observed in the Old World last month, but the Germany and France consumer spending growth cannot allow us to count on the weak data.


    The seven week trading session downward channel was broken through upwards. The level breakthrough of 1.1400 was at the increased volume.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1520, the next one is at 1.1590.


    There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    We suppose the pair will consolidate around the level of 1.1300.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    Markit Economics will publish the UK service sector business climate data. The unemployment reduction with the UK average wage increase can allow us to count on the index growth compared to the previous month. In this regard, the British pound can get some support.


    The support level of 1.5015 stopped the pound decline against the US dollar for the second time. The short-term level testing was followed by the price upward rebound amid the increased trading volumes. The resistance levels of 1.5100 and 1.5200 were broken.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the resistance at 1.5300.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    The potential growth target is the resistance level of 1.5300.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    Despite the fact that we saw a steady growth in the world's leading stock markets which is a positive factor for the pair dollar/yen. However, the US dollar global correction with the service sector moderately negative ISM release will put pressure on bulls.


    The strong support level of 117.00 breakthrough was not so long. Buyers bought out the price, returning the trade above the level of 117.00 which still plays the role of a reference support.


    The price is finding the first support at 117.00, the next one is at 115.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 118.00, the next one is at 119.20.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    The upward correction target is the level of 118.00.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The Swiss franc has grown due to the dollar general decline against other major currencies. The statistics played a significant role in it. The US factory orders data showed a decline by 3.4% m/m in December during the session.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9150, the next one is at 0.8940. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9340, the next one is at 0.9540.


    There is a non-confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to long with the first target - 0.9540. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  9. #129
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    06.02.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    Yesterday the pair EUR/USD showed a growth after a moderate decline - bulls took profits on the long positions after this week strong growth. Macroeconomic data showed a mixed background – the euro zone unemployment positive release was replaced by the US service sector ISM business activity positive one.


    The sales within the pair EUR/GBP cross-rate put pressure on the euro after the UK positive publication. Nevertheless the pair grew after a decrease.


    Yesterday the British pound enjoyed a steady demand. The UK services sector PMI index showed a growth to the level of 57.2%. It is also worth noting that the British indicator was able to bypass the same US indicator in January despite the fact that the ISM has reported the non-productive sphere increase. Against this positive background, the pair GBP/USD rose up at the end of the day.


    The US macroeconomic statistics which was published on Wednesday can be regarded as negative. The ADP and ISM employment releases came out worse than the forecasted medians that with the manufacturing sector employment decrease cannot allow us to count on strong non-farm data output. The services sector business activity showed growth compared to the previous month, but the industrial sector weakness signals about the economic growth slowdown. Against this background, bears opened short positions within the pair USD/JPY that caused the quotations decrease. The pair increased at the end of the trading day.






    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The December US trade balance can disappointed traders with its weak data. First, the dollar revaluation makes the US goods less competitive which is a negative factor for exports. Second, we observed the traditional trade deficit increase in December. Against this background, we can expect the data slightly worse than the forecasted medians.


    After buyers broke through the level of 1.1400 we expected a good corrective wave upwards within the euro. However, the reverse support level breakthrough of 1.1400 led to the correction completion. After the level of 1.1300 testing the pair rebounded upwards and closed the trades above the level of 1.1400.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1520, the next one is at 1.1590.


    There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Daed Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    The potential decrease targets are two support levels of: 1.1400, 1.1300, 1.1170.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    Despite the UK rapid inflation decline – we should not expect surprises from the Bank of England in terms of monetary policy changes. All the negative predictions have already been laid in the current market price and against this background the traders’ attention will be focused on the US statistics.


    The resistance level of 1.5200 was tested. The test led to the level breakthrough was followed by the rapid price growth. The resistance level of 1.5300 was broken upwards.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5400, the next one is at 1.5510.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.5400. After breaking 1.5400 the buyers may go to 1.5510.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The US moderately negative macroeconomic trade balance statistics with the technical correction which we observe in the USDX dollar index shows the bearish sentiment predominance. However, the economic slowdown in Japan as well as the world's leading stock markets growth will not allow the yen to strengthen significantly.


    The price movement is changeable at the level of 117.00 which first makes its way downwards and then upwards. During the breaks the trade volumes are in the reduced zone.


    The price is finding the first support at 117.00, the next one is at 115.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 118.00, the next one is at 119.20.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    The approach to the level of 1.1400 may lead to a price consolidation.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The Swiss franc temporarily strengthened against the dollar after the relatively weak ADP report publication. The ADP report traditionally helps to correct expectations for Friday's employment report.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9150, the next one is at 0.8940. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9340, the next one is at 0.9540.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to long with the first target - 0.9340. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9540.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  10. #130
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    10.02.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    All traders’ attention was focused on the UK macroeconomic statistics. The January labor market release pleased investors with its positive data. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 257 thousand that exceeded the traders’ expectations by 23 thousand. It will also possible the average hourly wage increase by 0.5% which will spur private consumption and will have a positive impact on the US economic growth. Against this positive background, traders once again started to increase long positions within the US dollar and we have seen the dollar rapid quotations growth. Then there was a consolidation in the majors pairs.


    The present-day political news could support the US dollar - the Fed representatives Plosser and Lockhart gave "hawkish" tone speeches which can be judged according to the words about the unemployment increase that will not cause anxiety and the US CB is approaching the moment when it will be difficult to justify keeping interest rates at the same level.


    The Bank of Japan continues to show confidence in the inflation targets achievement in 2015. The Central Bank will not intend to use the additional easing measures if there is the inflation decrease because of the falling oil prices. According to the Bank of Japan representative Iwate, the trending prices level shows a steady growth which will lead the inflation to the target level of 2% in 2015 fiscal year. At the same time, he believes that the oil prices decline complicates the Central Bank efforts in relation to the increasing inflation level and will delay this target implementation.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    It should be highlighted the Germany trade balance data publication. The euro devaluation with the industrial production moderate increase indicates the data output within the forecasted medians.


    Sellers have broken through the support level of 1.1400 for the second time. The pair stopped at the support level of 1.1300 where pair is consolidating.


    The support level breakthrough of 1.1400 was followed by the price decrease to the mark of 1.1300.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.


    There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    After the support level of 1.1170 breakthrough down the way to the support level of 1.1040 will be opened.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    Traders will take a break to assess the future trends perspectives amid the absence of the UK and the US important macroeconomic statistics. The US labor market positive data can spur demand for the US dollar. The UK 10-year bond yields are growing in relation to the US and German securities which is a bullish factor.


    The key resistance of 1.5300 is still relevant. Buyers have tried to test this mark, but without subsequent level breakthrough.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5400.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    The pair can breakthrough to the support level of 1.5200. After breaking 1.5200 the pair may go to 1.5100.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The Japan Ministry of Finance published the current account surplus data in December which amounted to 187.2 billion yen. The growth rate has not met analysts' forecasts that amounted to 355.8 billion yen and were lower than in November when the surplus amounted to 433.0 billion yen. The trade balance deficit reached 395.6 billion yen, beating analysts' expectations.


    There was a rebound from the support level of 117.00. The price growth fell to 119.20. The pair rebounded downwards from this level. The trade volumes are in reduced zone.


    The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    We believe the consolidation will be continued now. The potential decrease targets are the support levels: 118.00, 117.00.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The franc fell slightly amid the dollar growth. The US dollar compensated losses incurred at the beginning of the week after the unexpectedly US labor market strong report publication. The number of new jobs was 257K in January after 252K and the unemployment rate was 5.7% in January against 5.6%.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9150, the next one is at 0.8940. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9340, the next one is at 0.9540.


    The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The pair is consolidating now. We should wait till the pair will came out of the flat.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  11. #131
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    11.02.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The pair EUR/USD was able to compensate some lost ground amid the Germany positive trade balance for December. The index went out significantly better than the forecasted medians that encouraged bulls to long. As a result, the trading day the pair euro/dollar finished with a growth after a slight decrease.


    During the day the pair GBP/USD showed a lateral trend in the absence of the UK and the US important macroeconomic statistics. The UK and the US 10-year bond yields expansion encouraged bears to short and at the moment the price reached the level of 1.5200 after which there was a technical rebound upwards.


    Yesterday there was a downward trend on the world's leading stock markets that had a negative impact on the USD/JPY. Traders fixed profits on the long positions after the rapid Friday growth. Nevertheless, the pair dollar/yen recovered lost positions after a decrease.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    In the absence important macroeconomic statistics traders shall focus their attention on the bond market dynamics. Yesterday we observed the US and Germany 10-year bond yields, which is a bearish factor for the euro.


    The price consolidated inside the "rectangle" near the levels of 1.1385 - 1.1275. The downward trend potential is preserved.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.


    The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The sellers need to break below 1.1300 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.1170 will be opened after this breakthrough.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The traders’ attention will be focused on the industrial production. The PMI manufacturing index showed a decline to the level of 52.5%, indicating the industrial sector slowdown. We expect the data output slightly worse than the forecasted medians which will add pressure on the British pound.


    Sellers managed to break through the support level of 1.5200 which currently acts as a resistance. A consolidation below the level 1.5300 and the resistance level of 1.5200 will last till the GDP fundamental data output.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5400.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    The pair can decrease to the support level of 1.5015.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    Yesterday we observed a USD/JPY correction and also on the world's leading stock markets, so today we may expect the bulls’ return. The US Treasury 10-year bond yields are still below 2% and the current levels are attractive for long positions on the US stock market.


    The first downward trend line testing of 119.20 was followed by a slight price rebound downwards. Trading volumes have not shown spikes at the lower prices. Then the pair increased and broke through the resistance level of 119.20.


    The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.20, the next one is at 121.60.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    The approach to the level of 120.40 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the support level of 117.00.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  12. #132
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    12.02.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The pair EUR/USD pair consolidated near the 13th figure amid the lack of important macroeconomic statistics from the Eurozone and the US. Traders took a wait-and-see position and against this background there was a sluggish trade.


    The pair GBP/USD tested the 52nd figure in the first half of the day after the weak industrial production release. The index decreased by 0.2% in December while traders expected a growth by 0.3%. At the moment quotes reached the level of 1.5200 after which there was a trend reversal. The US and UK negative bond yields reduction encouraged bulls to long.


    Strong growth on the world's leading stock markets supported demand for the USD/JPY during the day. Traders used correctional movement to build up long positions and as a result, the pair has grown up.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    Eurozone and the United States have pleased traders with interesting macroeconomic releases. The fundamental background for the main pairs is mixed now. On the one hand, we have seen the US and Germany 10-year bond yields expansion which is a bearish signal. There is the largest oil workers’ strike for the last 30 years that pushes up the "black gold" prices. The oil correction has not finished yet which is a bullish factor for the pair euro/dollar.


    The price continued its consolidation at the support level of 1.1300 was followed by its rebound downwards below this level.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.1170, the next one is at 1.1040. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1400.


    There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The price is likely to go to the support level of 1.1170 this week.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    We should not count on the steady quotations growth in the absence of important macroeconomic statistics. The UK 10-year bond yields are raising in relation to the Germany and the US analogues that is a bullish factor for the "cable".


    Sellers are dominant in this market. The medium-term downward trend is held by the key resistance as a downward trend line of 1.5300.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5400.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    The potential decrease target is the support level of 1.5015.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    Japan celebrated a national holiday – the state foundation day. On this occasion, the Japan banking institutions were closed yesterday. Growth in the world's leading stock markets will spur demand for the pair dollar/yen.


    There were the resistance level of 119.20 breakthrough and the level of 120.40 testing. Due to the formed breakthrough the medium-term downward trend reversed upwards.


    The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.20, the next one is at 121.60.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    After the resistance level of 120.40 breakthrough upwards the way to the resistance level of 121.60 will be opened.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  13. #133
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    13.02.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    Yesterday the US dollar lost its position against its main competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 95.02. During the day the pair EUR/USD consolidated near the 13th figure amid the empty macroeconomic calendar. This week there was a flat within main pair and soon we expect it to leave the range. The euro strengthened on the yesterday’s trades.


    The pair GBP/USD enjoyed steady demand in the morning amid the sales within the cross-rate euro/pound. The UK and Germany 10-year bond yields expansion strengthened the bearish trend within the cross-rate which positively affected the British pound. Still the "cable" has lost all the advantage by the end of the day. The pound increased amid the BoE chief’s speech.


    Bulls were dominant on the Tokyo stock exchange market that encouraged bulls to long during the day. This factor with the 10-year US Treasury bond yields increase formed strong demand for the US dollar. The Treasuries bond yields exceeded the level of 2% for the first time this month amid expectations that the Fed would raise interest rates in mid-year. Nevertheless the pair sharply fell.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The consolidation that we saw the last three trading days was fallowed by the growth. The United States will publish the retail sales release for January. The Michigan University consumer confidence leading indicators and the Conference Board showed an impressive growth in January which proves a high demand in the retail sector. The average earnings index grew by 0.5% in January which is extremely positive for the consumer activity.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.


    The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    We suppose the pair will go to 1.1520 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to the level of 1.1590.





    Pound(GBP)


    General overview


    Traders responded positively on the Bank of England quarterly inflation report. We saw an unemployment decrease in the UK which together with the average earnings growth is a positive factor not only for the economic growth, but also for the inflation. The UK 10-year bond yields are now at the level of 1.67% that is higher by 33 basis points above the January lows.


    The trade within the pound looked quite sluggish and low volatile. The pound sharply increased after the news publication.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5400, the next one is at 1.5510.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upwards movements and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    The potential growth targets is the resistance level of 1.5510.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The pair decreased but the bullish trend is gaining momentum and now we expect the trend continuation. The United States can please traders with the retail sales positive statistics for January that will encourage traders to long.


    The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    The pair can grow to the resistance level of 119.20. After breaking 119.20 the buyers may go to 120.40 and 121.60.





    Franc (СHF)


    General overview


    The Swiss franc consolidated in the narrow range this week. The pair slightly increased at the yesterday’s trades.


    The main event is the US retail sales report. It is expected that the report figures will not be too good because of the gasoline prices decrease, it is also expected the cars slight sales decline, but the base rate should be higher than December one by 0.4%.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9150, the next one is at 0.8940. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9340, the next one is at 0.9540.


    There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The pair is consolidating now. We should wait till the pair will came out of the flat.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  14. #134
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    16.02.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The pair EUR/USD was in demand amid the US negative macroeconomic statistics. The January retail sale release disappointed traders with the weak data - the sales fell by 0.9% in January, indicating the weak private consumption and this is a negative factor for the economic growth. Against this background, the pair euro/dollar closed the trades at the opening price.


    The British pound has shown the strong quotes growth after the Bank of England quarter inflation report release. The report is uneven. On the one hand, Mark Carney pointed to the monetary control willingness to decrease the key rate, if necessary, because of the oil prices decrease. On the other hand, traders noted that the rates could be increased earlier than expected. Traders focused their attention only on the last statement and began to open "longs". Against this positive background, the pair GBP/USD has grown.


    Traders fixed profits at the pair USD/JPY after a sharp increase. The US negative retail sector sales statistics has accelerated the corrective movement development and at the moment quotes reached the level of 118.50 after which there was a technical rebound amid the US stock market growth. As a result, the pair dollar/yen decreased at the end of the day.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    Germany recorded the GDP growth for the fourth quarter. The manufacturing and the service sector showed a slowdown in the last 2014 quarter. The euro devaluation has had a positive effect on the net exports, reducing unemployment to 0.1%. The Brent oil increased by more than 5% that would be able to support moderate demand for the single European currency.


    There was the attempt to break through the resistance level of 1.1400, but the pair failed to fixate above it.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.


    The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    We expect the 1.1520 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.1590.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The currency market major players reacted positively to the quarter inflation report despite the fact that the Bank of England governor pointed out to the monetary policy easing if necessary. Mark Carney noted that the British banks recapitalization had made the key interest rate decrease possible.


    There were the resistance level of 1.5300 and the level of 1.5400 testing.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5400, the next one is at 1.5510.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    The pair is close to the strong resistance 1.5400. If the pair breaks it we expect the growth to 1.5510.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    In the absence of the US and Japan important macroeconomic statistics, traders will focus their attention on the stock and bond market dynamics. Yesterday we observed a high demand for the risky assets amid the geopolitical tension decrease because of the Ukraine events as well as the US retail sales positive statistics.


    After testing the strong resistance level of 120.40, the price has formed a short-term consolidation and sharply fell downwards. The support level of 119.20.


    The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    We may expect the fall towards 118.00 further on we expect a decrease to 117.00 where the pair may stop.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The pair dollar/franc will be consolidated with the risks balance, biased to the downside after it has reached the eight-day high of 0.9340 on Thursday.


    The pair is under the market deteriorating relationships pressure towards the US dollar. The pair potential target is constrained by the Switzerland negative interest rates, by the Swiss National Bank intervention threat with the franc sales and the Swiss franc sales within the growing pair euro/franc.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9150, the next one is at 0.8940. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9340, the next one is at 0.9540.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The pair is consolidating now. We should wait till the pair will came out of the flat.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  15. #135
    ValdisTF



    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    17.02.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The euro exchange rate rose against the US dollar on Monday; the market's attention was directed to the Euro group meeting on Greece. The euro area finance ministers held a regular meeting on Monday evening where they discussed the Greek problem. Meanwhile, the European Financial Stability Fund governor (ESM), Klaus Regling stated on Sunday that the Greek exit from the euro zone would be the worst way out of the situation. The euro fell at the end of the trading day.


    It is possible the price output from the range of 1.5320-5420 upwards within the British pound, but the movement can be muted by the expectations concerning the Tuesday inflation indices and the Wednesday Bank of England last meeting minutes publication - as the Monetary Policy Committee members supported the M.Karni’s idea to raise interest rates in the medium term.


    The yen is becoming more expensive against the US dollar and the euro amid the Japan's GDP positive data that weakened expectations for taking stimulating measures by the Japanese Central Bank.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    A stronger than expected the 4th quarter Eurozone GDP preliminary data supported the market’s sentiment towards the pair. The pair is also supported by the negative market’s attitude towards the dollar. The pair growth potential is limited by the ECB large-scale quantitative easing program and by the euro sales in the EUR/JPY.


    Based on the medium-term trend bears are still dominant on the market. The pair rebounded downwards from the level of 1.1400.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.


    The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    The pair can fall to the resistance level of 1.1300. After breaking 1.1300 the sellers may go to 1.1170.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The pair is supported by the market’s negative attitude towards the dollar and the demand for the British pound in the declining euro/pound. The pair is also supported by the Bank of England Monetary Policy member statement that the UK interest rates can be increased sooner than investors expect, as in the next two years inflation is expected to be close to the central bank's target level of 2.0%.


    There was the resistance level of 1.5400 breakthrough amid the raised volume. But the pair couldn’t fixate above this level and it rebounded below it.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5400, the next one is at 1.5510.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    The approach to the level of 1.5300 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 1.5400, 1.5500.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    There was not so much liquidity during the global trading day as the US financial markets did not work due to the national holiday.


    The pair is under pressure because of the deteriorated relationship towards the dollar on the February consumer confidence preliminary index unexpected decrease, according to the University of Michigan, to 93.6 from 98.1 in January, with the growth forecast to 98.3.


    The sharp prices decline from the resistance level of 120.40 was followed by the level of 119.20 breakthrough. The pair is decreasing towards 118.00 amid the lower volumes.


    The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.


    The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 119.20, 120.40.







    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  16. #136
    ValdisTF



    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    18.02.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The Euro group meeting results report was published where the Greece debt problems were discussed. As it became known Greeks refused to renew the assistance program on the same terms as the euro zone finance ministers rejected the Greek Government proposals contained earlier demands for changes in the current agreement. Against this background, the dollar rose sharply against the euro, the pound, and the yen.


    It is worth noting that the dollar growth was restrained, apparently, because of the European authorities statements indicated that the issue could be still resolved on Friday as told the Euro group governor Dijsselbloem if "the Greek authorities are willing to undertake their obligations".


    According to the statistics the US news line will be almost empty. Investors' attention can attract the NAHB report which is expected with the housing market index growth in February to 58 from the previous 57 that indicates the moods improvement among the housing market builders. As for the prospects, it is likely that the dollar will be traded under the European news influence where the economic calendar is much richer in content.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The pair is under pressure after the news that the latest negotiations round between Greece and its euro zone partners, concerning the financial assistance to the country, has suffered a sudden failure on Monday when Athens once again refused to ask for the current assistance extension program by 172 billion euro which expires on February 28.


    The triangle upper bound testing of 1.1400 was followed by the price rebound downwards to the level of 1.1300. The pair did not reach this level and returned to the resistance level of 1.1400.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.


    There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is increasing.


    Trading recommendations


    The sellers need to break below 1.1300 for a steady decrease. The way to the marks 1.1170 and 1.1040 will be opened after this breakthrough.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The January UK inflation will be in the center of our attention. It is forecasted the consumer price index (CPI) decline by 0.9%.


    The pair is under pressure amid the investors increased risk aversion. The potential pair decrease was limited by demand for the British pound in the declining pair euro/pound.


    The upward trend was stopped at the mark of 1.5400 from which was followed a slight rebound downwards and formed a consolidation.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5400, the next one is at 1.5510.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.5300 and 1.5200 soon.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The Japanese economic news was not published; the pair dollar/yen traded in the narrow range under the influence of the Japan stock and bond market events. As for the prospects, in the terms of tension increase related to the euro area conflict situation, interest to the yen as a refuge, apparently, is still preserved.


    After the strong support level of 119.20 breakthrough the price returned back to this mark, serving as a strong resistance.


    The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.


    The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    The price is likely to go to the support levels of 118.00 and 117.00.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  17. #137
    ValdisTF



    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    19.02.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The US dollar fixed divergent results in the disputes with its main competitors. The dollar has grown against the euro and the yen and has fallen against the pound. Earlier the euro was supported by the economic data and the hopes that the Greeks and the Eurozone still will come to an agreement, because both sides expressed readiness to continue the dialogue.


    The Japanese yen came under pressure amid the renewed US "Treasuries" bond yields growth and the neutral mood within the pound, formed due to the absence of negativity in the US inflation readings that was reduced, but only because of the energy prices decrease which is considered as a positive moment in an economic development.


    The US statistics showed not so encouraging results. The New-York Fed manufacturing index fell in February to 7.78 from 9.95 in January while the components, indicating the possible prospects, also decreased - new orders fell to 1.22 from the previous 6.09 and the employment growth slowed to 10.1 from 13.7 last month. With the home builders sentiment decrease has been announced the National Home Builders Association report (NAHB) – the index fell down to 55 against 57 in January when it was expected a growth to the level of 58. These messages discouraged investors a little bit, still it has not caused the large-scale dollar sales.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The pair euro/dollar was supported by the ECB reports that the Bank will not stop the emergence Greek banks funding this week and Greece will request for the financial assistance program extension.


    However, according to the ZEW the attitude towards the euro has deteriorated because of the weaker than expected sentiment indicators growth in the German economy.


    Despite the level breakthrough of 1.1400, the price did not hurry to rise up to the correction. The pair fell under this level.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.


    The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    The upward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.1520 soon.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The attitude towards the pound declined after the UK annual inflation decrease to the minimum for more than 50 years to 0.3% in January from 0.5% in December that was in line with our expectations. The pair growth potential also restricts the British pound sales within the increasing pair euro/pound.


    The last week maximum of 1.5300 served as a good support for the corrective pound. The formed consolidation above this level signals about the bullish trend continuation. The pair rebounded upwards and broke through the resistance level of 1.5400.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5400, the next one is 1.5300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5510, the next one is at 1.5620.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    The potential growth targets are two resistance levels of 1.5510 и 1.5620.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The Bank of Japan monetary policy decision was in the center of our attention on Wednesday. The central bank governor Mr. Kuroda said that there were no reasons to think about the additional mitigating measures. The pair is supported by the yen weakened attractiveness as a safe haven.


    The two day consolidation around 118.60 was followed by the price rebound upwards. The pair rose to the resistance level of 119.20. The trading volumes are in the downgrade zone.


    The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.


    The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement, and form a “Golden Cross”.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is falling.


    Trading recommendations


    We suppose the pair will go to 118.00 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 117.00.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  18. #138
    ValdisTF



    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    20.02.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The downward pressure on the USD was intensified after the not so encouraging economic indicators publication; taking into consideration the Fed Open Market Commission meeting minutes’ soft tone, the first interest rates growth is likely to be postponed until June. The US securities followed the dollar example; the 10-year bond yields fell from 2.15% to 2.08%. But surprisingly the protocols soft tone only worsened the situation, the main factor of exchange rate dynamics are negotiations between Greece and the EU.


    The pair EUR / USD rebounded to 1.1415 after the Fed meeting minute’s publication, but it was unable to find enough buyers and moved into the consolidation phase. Even at the last moment the agreement between Greece and the EU can be the catalyst that will trigger the pair EUR/USD correction. The pair GBP/USD is stable near the more than one-month high against the US dollar as the US dollar remains under pressure. The pair USD/JPY fell to after the Fed news and it rebounded upwards to 118.96. The pair weakly responded to the favorable data on the trade volume changes and the Ministry of Finance week report.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The ECB increased its loan to Greek banks, approving the amount of 68.3 billion euros that gives Athens some time to reach an agreement with the international lenders. However, the euro got the supported from the Fed minutes and after their release the currency bloc increased and leveled losses against the dollar incurred earlier. Then the pair fell.


    The continuous consolidation was at the level of 1.1400. The trade volumes are in the reduced zone.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.


    The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    We may expect the fall towards 1.1300 further on we expect a growth to 1.1520.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The pound slightly fell/ Nevertheless, the British pound strengthened against all of its major competitors. The pound was supported by the UK economic data that declared a high employment level.


    The strong resistance level of 1.5400 was broken. The pair is consolidating above this level.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5400, the next one is 1.5300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5510, the next one is at 1.5620.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.5490.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The summarizing event was the US bank minutes announcement. The "minutes" soft tone provoked the dollar sales and then the yen has strengthened.


    Previously, pressure on the pair came from the Kuroda’s statements, the Bank of Japan governor, who excluded additional monetary policy easing measures in the short term, but the Japan stock market growth supported the pair.




    The US dollar slight decrease led to the prices decline to the level of 118.60. Then the pair grew and tested the mark of 119.20.


    The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.


    The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 118.15, 117.15 soon.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The pair doolar-franc started the upward movement. The Swiss franc has slightly strengthened its position after the FOMC protocols. There are risks regarding the geopolitical situation in the FOMC meeting minutes on 27-28 January. Taking into account the low inflation and other risks, many committee members tend to the zero rate preservation for a longer period of time.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9340, the next one is at 0.9150. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9750.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to long with the first target - 0.9540. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  19. #139
    ValdisTF



    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    23.02.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The negative emotions towards the dollar are exhausted after the Fed minutes publication. The market is again waiting for the new benchmarks and against this background the pair returned to the range trading.


    The dollar was trading different directed s against its major competitors. The US economic data showed a mixed trend, but a part of the messages, relating to employment, provided some support for the dollar. Last week the initial jobless claims pointed to the labor market strengthening- the jobless claims decreased by 21 thousand up to 283 thousand when we expected a more solid figure- 290 thousand.


    The Philadelphia Fed report witnessed the manufacturing sector activity slowdown to 5.2 in February from 6.3 in January, but the release component, noting employment, increased in this case - the index rose to the level of 3.9 against the previous 2.0.


    The US economic meaningful statistics is not ready for output; the dollar will be under the European reports influence where the news background is much richer, both in terms of statistics and policy.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The Eurozone news turned out to quite dull and the euro recovered its decline but in increased at the end of the trades. The France consumer price index showed -1.0% in January against the expected -0.9%. The euro zone payments balance was 17.8 billion euros in December against 19.9 billion in November while it was forecasted 23.3 billion euros.


    Germany refused Greece to renew the loan agreement for six months on those considerations that Greece refuses to comply with the austerity measures. Nevertheless the Greece and the Eurogroupe came to an agreement.


    The level of 1.1400 breakthrough was not followed by the strong euro growth against the US dollar. On the contrary, the trade has become a protracted consolidation within the levels of 1.1400 - 1.1300.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.


    The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    The approach to the level of 1.1300 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 1.1400, 1.1520.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The January UK retail sales are expected with a decline by 0.1%. The public borrowing sector is projected with the demand decline by 9.5 billion pounds which has become a consistent pattern for January during the last five years.


    The strong pound growth is paused for a short-term rebound at the mark of 1.5400. This level is already broken through downwards. Then the pair slightly increased and tested this mark.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5400, the next one is at 1.5510.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    The downward potential target is 1.5300. If the price increases it will get to 1.5510.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The Japanese yen is trading in the range with the 40 points amplitude. The Japanese long-term bond yields became balanced on the average three- to five-day levels, the medium-term bond yields continued to decline; the two-year bond yields have declined from the medium level of 0.045% to the level of 0.035% while the six-month bond yields have fallen from the last week medium level of 0.02% to the level of 0.005%.


    The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.


    The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    We believe the decrease will be continued now. The first target is the level 118.00.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The dollar slightly strengthened against all of its major competitors. The US economic data marked a mixed trend, but a part of the messages, relating to employment, provided some support for the US dollar.


    The pair dollar/franc easily broke through the level of 0.9340 after it tested the level of 0.9540. Then the pair decreased.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9340, the next one is at 0.9150. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9750.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is falling.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to long with the first target - 0.9540. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  20. #140
    ValdisTF





    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    24.02.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    After reaching the Friday "truce" between Athens and the creditors on the Greece loans issue for four months under the guarantee of performing reforms, the market focused its attention on the J. Yellen two-day speech , the Federal Reserve governor which will be held on February 24 and 25. Yellen will announce her position to the economy state and maybe she will give a hint about rate saving to normalize monetary policy, followed by the rates increase.


    If the Yellen speech result will be the US economy upward trend acknowledgement and the number of pessimistic characteristics is not going to be large - it will be a good signal to the fact that the Fed remains on the way to raise interest rates in the middle of this year. If this happens, the single currency and the yen clearly come out of the corridors in which they have already been the significant period of time and will continue to fall against the US dollar.


    Difference in opinions, concerning the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve monetary policy is a negative factor for the yen. It is also important for the yen, but other additional factor will be the ECB government bonds real foreclosure which will expand its balance sheet and reduce the single currency price.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The Eurozone finance ministers finally reached a compromise on the Greek debt. It is expected that the draft agreement will help to prolong the financial assistance program for 4 to 6 months with no obligations on the Greece part to comply with the austerity measures on which the Euro group insisted earlier.


    There was the short-term strong support level of 1.1300 testing which was followed by the strong price rebound upwards. The price rebound was followed amid the very high volume.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    The potential increase target is the resistance level of 1.1400.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The UK published the retail sales report according to the British Industry Confederation. The index showed +1 after +39. This is the minimum since November 2013.


    The pair GBP/USD still continues to be in demand on the dips, however, the pair failed to return above the fifty-fourth figure.


    There was a short-term consolidation under the resistance level of 1.5400. This consolidation was followed by an active rebound upwards above this level against the increased volume.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5400, the next one is 1.5300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5510, the next one is at 1.5620.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    We suppose the pair will go to 1.5510 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.5620 .





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The pair dollar/yen declined amid the risk aversion last week as the Greek crisis current phase has forced investors to keep looking for a refuge. The information about the draft agreement between the Greeks and the Euro group provoked the pair reversal.


    Sellers have tried to break through below the strong support level of 118.00 for three times last two weeks. There has been the price rebound upwards for three times.


    The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.


    The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is falling.


    Trading recommendations


    The downward movement potential target is 118.00. If the price grows it will get to 119.20.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



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