"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


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  1. #101
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    15.12.2014


    Fundamental analysis


    The November US retail sales release returned everything on its places - the US dollar finished last week in the "green zone" along with the stock markets. The pair EUR/USD closed the trading with the price decrease by 0.5%. The US retail sector sales in November increased by 0.7% and in addition it was revised the October release towards growth. This report confirms the US economy increased strength that immediately reflected on the euro quotations. Nevertheless, the euro increased on the Friday trades.


    In the bulls and bears dispute within the pair GBP/USD no one won at the end of the trading week. The UK 10-year bond yields have grown by 0.3% with the profit-taking on the long positions within the cross-rate EUR/GBP that did not allow the pound to develop a strong downward trend after the US positive retail for November. The pair is consolidating.


    The Japan negative macroeconomic statistics and the US positive data forced bears within the pair USD/JPY to surrender. The two reports came out worse than traders had expected - the change in machinery and equipment orders as well as the service sector activity index. In this context, we receive the first wake-up call for an economic growth in the 4th quarter of this year.


    On the contrary, the US pleased traders with the strong retail sales data that in November rose by 0.7%. This release with the leading indicators from ISM points out to the strong economic growth for the last three months of the year. The US and Japan stock exchanges have responded positively to the strong retail sector sales data and against this background, the pair dollar/yen started a consolidation.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The industrial sector business optimism by Markit Economics in October showed a symbolic increase and therefore we can expect the data release at the level of 0.1% - 0.2%. We cannot count on the strong release in terms of the France manufacturing sector strong reduction. The US producer price index data can also reach the level of the forecasted medians amid the "bears’ rally" on the oil futures market. The consumer sentiment index by the University of Michigan can also be at the consensus forecast.


    The rice almost came to the upper border of the downtrend channel 1.2500, then it rebounded down. The rebound target was the support level of 1.2400, from which the price rose up.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.2400, the next one is at 1.2300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2600.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.


    Trading recommendations


    If the price fixates below the support 1.2400, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 1.2300 and 1.2200.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The trade within the pound has been for a long time near the downward trend line of 1.5750. The buyers tested this resistance last week.


    It is worth noting that the price tested the 1.5760 resistance and then rebounded down. The support level of 1.5660 was also tested. The price is not determined the direction and consolidated.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5660, the next one is at 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5760, the next one is at 1.5870.


    There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The potential decrease target is the resistance level of 1.5660.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The yen fell at the end of last week for the first time on rumors that the Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of the Liberal Democratic Party will probably win in the elections which took place on the weekend.


    The Japan basic machine orders data points out to the Japanese economic difficulties. According to the data, the leading capital expenditure indicator decreased by 6.4% after growth during five months in October while economists expected decline by 1.9%.


    The support level short-test of 118.00 was followed by the prices rebound upwards with the further downtrend channel upper bound of 119.20 testing. Then the pair decreased under this resistance.


    The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The pair is close to the strong resistance level of 119.20. If the pair breaks it we expect the growth to 120.40 and 121.60.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The dollar exchange rate increased due to the US high retail sales. Nevertheless the dollar decreased at the end of the last week.


    The good November indicators allow us to expect the Fed forecast revision towards the earlier policy tightening at the meeting next week. We expect that it will give significant support to the dollar at the end of the year


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9560. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9680, the next one is at 0.9750.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to short with the first target - 0.9560. When the pair consolidates under the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9500.







    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  2. #102
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    17.12.2014


    Fundamental analysis


    Yesterday the US dollar fell. Earlier it managed to recover some lost ground against its major competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day at the mark of 88.50. The pair EUR/USD remained under pressure during the day amid the commodity markets sales.


    The Brent oil is very close to the psychological level of $60/barrel that supported the US dollar during the day. The US industrial production release for November pleased traders by its positive data that also supported demand for the dollar. Then the USD decreased.


    Bears were able to fully play the downward trend within the pair GBP/USD. The UK and the US negative bond yields encouraged traders for the opening short positions within the British pound that was fundamentally revalued in the short term.


    Both the manufacturing sector and the Tankan service sector activity indices supported the demand for the Japanese yen. The strong data allow us to count on the Japan economic growth recovery. Sales on the global stock markets have also put pressure on the pair USD/JPY.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    We wait for the Germany and France production sector PMI from Markit Economics as well as from the ZEW institute. It should be noted that these indicators are quite difficult to predict as they relate to the number of leading ones.


    The pair has been near the downward channel upper bound for a long while. We see consolidation fallowed by the price increase.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2600, the next one is at 1.2670.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The downward bounce potential target are 1.2400, 1.2300, 1.2200.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The UK National statistics office will publish the consumer price index release for November. The UK government bonds dynamics is decreasing, signaling about the inflationary pressure decline. In the light of this we expect the data output at the level of year on year 1.2%.


    There was a rebound from the resistance level of 1.5760. The rebound was followed on the increased volumes, but was met with a round mark of 1.5600 where now we see a correction upwards. Then it was the price downward movement.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5660, the next one is at 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5760, the next one is at 1.5870.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    The trend is a down side. We expect the level of 1.5660 testing soon.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    Yesterday the US and the Japan bond yields grew on the bond market which is a bullish signal. The US macroeconomic statistics pleased traders with the positive data about the number of foundation installations amid the increasing consumer confidence in recent months that will also support demand for the US dollar.


    There was a rebound from the resistance level of 119.20 on the increasing prices. The nearest rebound target is at the mark of 117.00 that has been already tested. The support level of 115.80 testing was followed by the price return above the level of 117.00.


    The price is finding the first support at 117.00, the next one is at 115.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 118.00, the next one is at 119.20.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    The price is likely to go downward to the levels of 115.80, 114.60.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The Swiss franc consolidates against the dollar.


    Investors escape from the risky assets and prefer not to risk amid the oil prices decline that create instability on the markets and force players to worry about the global economic health.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9560, the next one is at 0.9500. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9680.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to short with the first target - 0.9560. When the pair consolidates under the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9500.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  3. #103
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    18.12.2014


    Fundamental analysis


    Every day the US dollar is thrown from one side to another - yesterday we saw the dollar increase against the majors. Earlier the dollar index basket decrease (USDX) to the level of 87.63. The pair EUR/USD strengthened in the first half of the day amid the Germany positive macroeconomic statistics. Two indices – the PMI manufacturing and the ZEW business optimism indicator pleased traders with the strong data. It is worth noting the final index of the second macroeconomic release overcame an annual average that points out to the negative trend breakthrough. The euro devaluation as well as the lower degree of geopolitical tension was positive for the Germany business climate the last month of the year.


    The pair GBP/USD was in demand despite the UK CPI negative report for November. The UK inflation reduced to the level of 1% in annual terms that caused the 10-year government bond yields decrease to the level of 1.77% and increased the negative spread with US securities. Nevertheless, traders opened "longs" within the British pound. In anticipation of the FOMC press conference the dollar weakened that can signal about the large buying orders at the low levels. The sterling decreased at the end of the trades.


    The USD/JPY remained under pressure in the first half of the day amid the global equity markets sales and the US and the Japan yield spreads reduction. However, we observed the bulls’ return to the stock market at the US session that immediately reflected on the dollar/yen quotes. However, now it is too early to speak about the full technical correction completion – the Nasdaq stock index lagged behind their counterparts, pointing out to the low demand for the risky assets.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    Today all the traders’ attention will be focused on the FOMC press conference, on the two-day monetary policy meeting results. The Fed will announce its economic forecast and we expect the assessment revision towards the medium term increase.


    Buyers could not confidently break through the support level of 1.2500. The key resistance breakthrough was on the increased volume. Nevertheless the pair fell again and tested the level of 1.2400.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.2400, the next one is at 1.2300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2600.


    There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.2670.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The UK weak inflation release for November questions the further pound strengthening. The Bank of England's monetary policy minutes also will not be able to encourage traders - inflation expectations are reducing and the main trading partner weak economic growth will hold back the UK economic growth.


    There were made attempts to rise trades to the higher levels within this pair. However, the resistance at the level of 1.5760 limited the pair growth and triggered the rebound downwards. The pair tested the support level of 1.5660.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5660, the next one is at 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5760, the next one is at 1.5870.


    The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement.


    The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    The price is likely to go to the downward trend line 1.5550.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The Japanese yen has not yet exhausted potential for its growth and today bears again will attack bulls. The US CPI release for November can demonstrate the inflationary pressure decrease that will lead to the Japan and the US negative yield spreads reduction.


    There was the resistance level of 117.00 breakthrough upwards. The level breakthrough was on the increased volumes.


    The price is finding the first support at 117.00, the next one is at 115.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 118.00, the next one is at 119.20.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    The level of 117.00 retest is more likely to lead to a decrease to the strong price support levels 115.80 and 114.60.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The US dollar compensated most of the losses incurred against the franc.


    The Fed will publish a statement about the month meeting results this year. According to many analysts, the central bank will refuse to use the phrase "considerable time", referring to the period of continuing low interest rates.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9560. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9680, the next one is at 0.9750.


    There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to short with the first target - 0.9560. When the pair consolidates under the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9500.







    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  4. #104
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    19.12.2014


    Fundamental analysis


    The US Federal Reserve two-day meeting results announcement was the central event of the month. The monetary regulator increased the GDP growth rates assessment for the next three years. It was also noted the more rapid unemployment decline in 2015 and 2016. In this case, the financial authorities have reduced inflation forecasts in the short term and we expect decline to the level of 1% in the first half of the next year. At this meeting, the FOMC three members were in favor of raising the federal funds rate - the head of the Minneapolis Fed Kocherlakota was in the favor of the Fisher and Plosser traditional monetary policy. At the press conference, the head of the Federal Reserve announced that interest rates could be raised at any meeting in 2015 that indicates the transition from the conservative point of views to aggressive ones. Against this background, the euro was sold.


    The pair GBP/USD was under pressure in the first half of the day after the Bank of England revised the inflation forecast towards the negative side. The MRS minutes reported the consumer prices decline that is less than 1% in annual terms that increased investors’ pessimism towards the British pound. Even the positive salary growth release could not have a significant impact on the market. The salary growth will have a positive impact on inflation and the GDP in the medium term, but the Bank of England short-term negative scenario once again will put pressure on the pound. The US Federal Reserve meeting results negatively reflected on the pound – traders actively get rid of the British pound that is fundamentally overvalued. Nevertheless the sterling increased at the yesterday trades.


    That is what the bulls within the pair USD/JPY has been waiting for. The FOMC positive forecasts about the economic growth perspectives with demand on the US stock market encouraged traders for opening long positions. The pair dollar/yen has been the most undervalued currency for the last eight trading days and it is not surprising that namely there we observed the strongest US dollar growth.






    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    This week we have received the Germany strong releases from Markit Economics and ZEW and today we expect the positive dynamics to be continued by the IFO Institute. In the light of this, the European single currency can get short-term support.


    The Fed pointed out to the downward trend continuation within the main currency pair and the short-term quotations’ growth should be used to build "shorts". The commodity market bearish trend is also able to strengthen demand for the dollar as the commodity assets are denominated into the US currency.


    The price is finding the support at 1.2200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2300, the next one is at 1.2400.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    The price is likely to go to the downward trend line 1.2200.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    According to the National Statistics Office report there was the salary increase that exceeded the annualized inflation level. According to the British Retail Consortium this factor with the November sales increase points out to the positive release. The pound can get some support, but this growth should be used for short positions opening amid the increasing demand for the dollar.


    The price is finding the support at 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5660, the next one is at 1.5760.


    The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.


    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    After the trend line 1.5550 breakthrough down the way to the support levels 1.5500, 1.5440 will be opened.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    In the absence of the important macroeconomic statistics the traders will focus their attention on the bond and stock markets dynamics. The Japan and the US negative bond yields show to the bullish sentiment predominance within the dollar. Bulls are returning to the US market share, opening long positions at the attractive levels. Yesterday the Nasdaq index was the growth leader in the US which is a positive factor for the stock market because it indicates the strong demand for the risky assets.


    The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.


    There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 120.40, 121.60.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The dollar has grown against the most currencies as the Fed missed its traditional appeal to keep rates at the zero level for "the considerable period of time" and at the end of the two-days meeting kept its benchmark rate unchanged at the level of 0.25% 0 where it is since 2008.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9800, the next one is at 0.9750. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9850.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to long with the first target - 0.9850.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  5. #105
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    23.12.2014


    Fundamental analysis


    The US dollar set a fresh eight-year high – the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 89.60. The pair EUR/USD is under pressure amid the US Federal Reserve meeting results despite the slight correction. The US monetary authorities have changed their conservative views into the moderately aggressive ones the monetary policy perspectives that supports demand for the dollar.


    The pair GBP/USD was also in the bears’ power. The GfK has published the UK December consumer confidence release. The indicator has shown its lowest level for nine months, signaling about the personal consumption decline in early 2015. The US negative macroeconomic statistics with the Fed positive forecasts supported demand for the dollar during the day.


    The Bank of Japan's announced its monetary policy meeting results. The short-term inflation forecasts were downgraded amid the easing energy prices. At the same time, Mr. Kuroda told about the economic positive trends in the long term amid the low oil prices. Japan acutely depends on the black gold and the low oil price will certainly have beneficial effects on the economic growth. The pair USD/JPY has responded with moderate quotations growth on the control monetary policy director’ statement.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    We draw our attention to the US real estate sector data. The American consumers have been very confident for the recent months that allows us to count on the secondary market home sales positive release.


    The support level of 1.2300 breakthrough was at the low volumes. The pair could fixate under this level and start the corrective movement.


    The price is finding the support at 1.2200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2300, the next one is at 1.2400.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.2300. After breaking 1.2300 the buyers may go to 1.2400.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The United States can please the traders with the secondary market housing sales positive report that will support the demand for the US dollar. The commodity market negative trend was also able to support the dollar - the CRB Commodity Index decreased by 1.42% at the last week.


    The trading within the pound has been going in the downward channel for six week in a row. Last week before reaching the channel lower bound, buyers set the price up that was fallowed by the decrease movement.


    The price is finding the support at 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5660, the next one is at 1.5760.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal trend and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    The upward movement target is 1.5760. If the price falls it will get to 1.5550.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The head of the Bank of Japan said that the inflation short-term risks are still preserved amid the oil market bearish trend. In this context, the pair dynamics will be determined by the US and Japan bond markets sentiment.


    There was the sharp dollar growth from the support level of 117.00 against the Japanese yen. Buyers broke the resistance level of 119.20 amid the reduced volume and continued the upward movement.


    The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buysignal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement. the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    The potential decrease targets are the support levels: 118.00, 117.00.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The franc reached the 2,5 year low against the dollar as a result of the National Bank of Switzerland unexpected decision to set a negative deposit rate to protect the franc.


    The Swiss government has revised the economic forecasts towards the GDP forecast decrease for 2015 and lowered to 2.1% from the previous 2.4%.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9800, the next one is at 0.9750. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9900.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to long with the first target - 0.9850. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9900.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  6. #106
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    24.12.2014


    Fundamental analysis


    The dollar managed to strengthen against the major currencies in yesterday's trades. Earlier there was a multidirectional trend on the Forex market. The pair EUR/USD was in demand during the day amid the short positions profit taking. There was any important macroeconomic statistics as a result there was quite a weak trade. The pair broke through the level of 1.2200.


    The pair GBP/USD was under pressure during the day. The bond market dynamics again showed the US and the UK negative bond yields expansion that with the cross-rate euro/pound growth encouraged bears for short positions opening.


    The world's leading stock markets have entered the final Christmas rally phase that supported the demand for the pair USD/JPY during the day. The United States issued the November secondary market home sales negative release, still it could not encourage bears for short positions opening, pointing out to the lack of demand for "safe" yen from the financial institutions.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    American consumers feel comfortable enough and the November strong retail sales perfectly prove it. We expect the positive data from the durable goods orders. However, it is difficult to count on the exceeding consensus forecast as during the Christmas period Americans are more focused on the retail sector.


    Sellers attempted to break through above the resistance level of 1.2300. The short-term test was followed by a small breakthrough with the following price return back beyond the level. Then the pair fell under the support level of 1.2200.


    The price is finding the support at 1.2130. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2200, the next one is at 1.2300.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    The downward bounce potential target is 1.2130.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The National statistics office will publish the UK balance of payments quarterly report. There was the strong imports increase in the third quarter that is a negative factor for the payment balance. The Bank of England gold reserves dynamics confirms this negative picture - in the period from July to September, there was the international reserves decline that often happens during the balance of payments deficit.


    Sellers have tried twice to break through below the support level of 1.5550 for the last two weeks. There was a twice rebound from the level. The third test of strength was followed by the level breakthrough.


    The price is finding the support at 1.5480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is at 1.5660.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    The upward movement target is 1.5760. If the price falls it will get to 1.5400.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    Japan again will please traders with interesting statistics in the first half of the day, the pair dollar/yen will replicate the Nikkei 225 stock index futures dynamics.


    Slowly but surely, buyers continue to raise the price up at the low volumes. The upward trend is gradually coming out, as evidenced by the sluggish volatility.


    The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    After the trend line 120.40 breakthrough upwards the way to the support 121.60 is opened.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    Traditionally investors buy the dollar in the absence of new factors and amid the expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates in 2015. The US GDP report will be published and according to the forecasts will show the economic growth has exceeded 4% in the second quarter in a row.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9800. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9900.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to long with the first target - 0.9900.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  7. #107
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    29.12.2014


    Fundamental analysis


    The USD grew against the euro last week. Earlier we could see a US dollar moderate correction - the dollar index basket (USDX) came to the mark of 89.95. The pair EUR/USD moderately increased during the day amid the partial short positions profit taking. The United States published the initial jobless claims that exceeded the traders’ expectations. It is worth noting that the four-week average dropped to the level of 290.25K that is a positive signal for the unemployment release that we received on 9 January. The low liquidity forced traders to refrain from active trading.


    The British pound also demonstrated little power - the traders closed the "shorts" on the eve of the Christmas holidays. The pair GBP/USD was able to finish the trading day above the resistance level of 1.5544, but the cable perspectives remain vague - we again observed the UK and the US negative bond yields expansion to the new yearly high that.


    The pair USD/JPY is consolidating after the strong growth last week. The bulls took profits on the long positions in Asian trading session. Then during the day there was a flat tendency - traders did not hurry to open positions in the run up to Christmas, despite the fact that the bond market made bullish signals. The US and Japan 10-year bond yields expanded to the level of 195 basis points that is a negative factor for the Japanese yen.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    There was no important macroeconomic data. The differential expansion between the German bond yields and the US treasuries contributed to the dollar growth. There are no strong changes on the securities market that confirms the side trend.


    The support near 1.2200 was broken through, after which buyers twice tried to test the resistance level of 1.2200. After the second retest the price directed downwards.


    The consolidation was formed and the price dropped with a gap.


    The price is finding the support at 1.2130. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2200, the next one is at 1.2300.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.2000 soon.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The British pound is likely to be under pressure again. The negative ten-year bond yields have increased, reaching the fresh yearly high, caused by the negative data and the strong British data and the US GDP release for the third quarter. All these factors point out to the strong bearish signal.


    The support is at the level of 1.5550 and for two weeks it has rebounded the sellers upwards. After the fundamental news publication the level was broken through. The support of 1.5550 breakthrough led to the price exit beyond the downward channel boundaries. The pair broke the level of 1.5550 upwards at the end of the last week.


    The price is finding the support at 1.5480. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is at 1.5660.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    The price is likely to go to the downward trend line 1.5400.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The US dollar is consolidating against the yen. A serious divergence is formed that indicates the bullish trend weakness. Looking at the overall dollar correlation against many USD majors, we can observe the overall US dollar growth.


    We also note that on the most currency instruments the significant levels have already broken through. The pair USD/JPY is consolidating at the level of 120.40.


    The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 121.60.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The US showed a fairly positive data, as a result the demand for the US dollar has grown. Against this background, the Swiss franc gave up its positions.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9800. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9900.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to long with the first target - 0.9900.







    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  8. #108
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    06.01.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The US dollar continued to strengthen against its major competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 91.15. During the day the pair EUR/USD tested the 19th figure amid the “black gold” sales. The Brent oil fell to the mark of 56.02 that is able to enhance the Eurozone deflationary threat development. In the light of this traders got rid of the euro.


    The negative UK PMI manufacturing sector sent the pair GBP/USD to knockout. In December the indicator fell to the mark of 52.5% that has been the lowest level since June 2013. This release points out to the industrial production weak data that in turn has a negative impact on the final 4th quarter GDP figures. After the release traders actively sold the British pound.


    The USD/JPY bulls opened long positions, considering the current levels attractive for their investment portfolios. Even the negative the ISM manufacturing release could not spoil their mood. In December the indicator decreased to 55.5% that is the lowest level for the last 5 months. It should also be noted that the total value fell below the annual average that indicates the strong business activity decline in the manufacturing sector. Against this background, bears opened short positions.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The pair EUR/GBP strong quotations growth on Friday should attract the bulls’ attention. However, the level of 1.2000 is a strong resistance and its growth potential will be limited by this area.


    The traders’ attention will be focused on the Germany inflation data.


    The current week opened with a gap according to this instrument. The gap was formed at the round level of 1.2000 that is quite strong level for major market participants.


    The price is finding the support at 1.1850. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1950, the next one is at 1.2000.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    The potential growth target is the resistance level of 1.2000.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The Center of Macroeconomic Research Markit Economics will publish the construction sector business optimism release. According to the BBA, the mortgage lending decline in November indicates the data within the forecasted medians. After the quotations decrease to 52nd figure we can expect some technical rebound.


    The pound was about 250 points towards the downward trend. There was the intermediate support level breakthrough of 1.5300.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5400.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    The trend is a down side. We expect the level of 1.5100 testing soon.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    Traders will focus their attention on the stock market dynamics amid the absence of Japan and the US important macroeconomic statistics publication. The Tokyo Stock Exchange began its work after 4-day weekend and we can expect the bearish sentiment prevalence.


    Last trading week the US stock market finished in the negative area and today we can expect the negative dynamics continuation.


    The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.


    The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    The buyers need to break above 120.40 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 121.60 will be opened after this breakthrough.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The franc reduced amid the dollar growth. In general, the dollar index rose by 12.3% since the beginning of the year becoming the absolute leader among the 10 currencies of the most economically developed countries. Ii is the best result for the last decade.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.0030, the next one is at 0.9960. The price is finding the resistance at 1.0100.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to long with the first target – 1.0100.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

  9. #109
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    07.01.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    Rumors that Greece may exit the euro zone sent the European single currency to test the eight- year minimum. The German Chancellor Angela Merkel in an interview with German media said that she considered possible Greece exit from the euro zone. The EUR/USD quotes reached the level of 1.1861 at the moment after this news announcment. Setting a new maximum for the last eight years, the euro/dollar demonstrated the short-term growth. Nevertheless, the pair continues to test the level of 1.1863.


    The pair GBP/USD started the trading week with a gap at the level of 1.5245. After the UK construction sector PMI report bears tried to organize an attack against the British pound. We have not seen the quotations reduction below the level of 1.5200. The UK and the US 10- year negative differential bond yields have been declining for two consecutive trading days that is a deterrent for the bearish sentiment strengthening.


    Sales on the stock markets in Tokyo and New York encouraged bears to open short positions within the pair USD/JPY. There was no important macroeconomic statistics this day and traders focused their attention exclusively on the stock market dynamics. It should be noted that the Nasdaq index that is a demand barometer for risky assets, on Monday it declined less than their main colleagues, indicating the final phase of the bearish trend in the US stock market.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    Rumors that Greece may exit the Eurozone as well as the German inflationary pressure compression are definitely negative factors, but at this time the euro is at the very low levels. The US and the Germany 10-year bond yields continued to decline, signaling the technical correction development.


    The euro/dollar opened the market with a gap. There was an upward correction from the level of 1.1920 that is not supported by the trade volumes. The pair was trading multidirectional and the resistance level of 1.1950 was unsuccessful.


    The price is finding the support at 1.1850. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1950, the next one is at 1.2000.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    The potential growth target is the resistance level of 1.2000. The strong resistance level 1.200 testing will be followed by the euro decrease.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    Markit Economics will publish the third and final UK release. At this time we will get business optimism data in the service sector. We expect the data at the level of consensus forecast that will give some support to the pound. The US ISM service sector release can also reach the level of the forecasted medians.


    The gap was not closed. There were no changes in the price volatility. The trade is below the resistance at the level of 1.5200.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is falling.


    Trading recommendations


    We expect the consolidation in the range 1.5300-1.5200.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    From the the US non-productive sphere ISM index we can expect a reduction compared to the previous month. The manufacturing index has already shown a decline below the annual average, next is the business activity decline in the services sector. We can also expect the downward dynamics continuation on the US and Japan stock markets.


    From the level of 120.40 the downward correction to the upward trend line of 118.00 was formed.


    The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.


    The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 119.20, 120.40.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The dollar remains positive against the European currencies amid expectations that the growing divergence in economic growth rates and monetary policy between Europe and the United States in the coming year will continue to support the US currency despite the fact that the Federal Reserve made it clear that it would not rush to increase rates at least until the end of April.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.0030, the next one is at 0.9960. The price is finding the resistance at 1.0100.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to long with the first target – 1.0100.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  10. #110
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    08.01.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    There was a multidirectional movement the other day. Most of the day the pair EUR/USD was under pressure amid the lower energy prices. Against this background, the German 10- year bond yields again set a fresh historic low. However, after the services sector ISM negative release bulls started to increase long positions. In December, the non-manufacturing sector business climate index fell to the level of 56.2, indicating the economic growth slowdown.


    The pair GBP/USD once again came under a sales wave after the Markit Economics publication. The service sector PMI report came out worse than traders had expected, the average quarterly value was the lowest in 2014. This factor, along with the trade and balance of payments weak data indicates the economic growth slowdown for the 4th quarter in the UK.


    The pair USD/JPY pair is in the bulls’ power. They took the initiative from the bears. Earlier the US weak macroeconomic statistics accelerated the US stock market sales that caused demand for safe assets - the Japanese yen. It should also be noted the US and Japan 10-year bond yields reduction that is a bearish signal.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The traders’ attention will be focused on the euro area inflation. The Spain and Germany data showed the inflationary pressure compression the last month of 2014. In recent months there was a large-scale oil contracts sale that puts pressure on the CPI.


    Buyers have not closed the gap formed at the beginning of the trading week. Currently, two gaps remain closed according to this trading instrument.


    The price is finding the support at 1.1770. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1850, the next one is at 1.1950.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.


    Trading recommendations


    The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.1770 soon.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The US moderately negative macroeconomic statistics will allow the British pound to take a breath. The oil prices decline caused the UK and the US bond yields increase, but the negative 10-year bond yields continued to fall. However, it is still premature to talk about the full reversal.


    Now the trade within the GBP is towards the downward channel, its upper bound is at the level of 1.5200 and it will be broken through upwards in the short term.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5015. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5200.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    The approach to the level of 1.5200 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the support levels of 1.5100 and 1.5015.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The United States published the ISM manufacturing and service sector negative releases that would certainly be reflected in the 4th quarter GDP. We can also expect the ADP data output and the trade balance slightly worse than the forecasted medians. At the beginning of the new year we saw the US and Japan 10-year bond yields sharp reduction. It was 169 pp on January 6.


    At the increasing volume sellers tried to break through below the upward trend line of 119.20 that is a key support. The trend line 118.00 testing has not led to the breakthrough and the pair grew above the level of 119.20.


    The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.


    The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    The trend is an up side. The upward bounce potential target are 120.40, 121.60.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The Swiss franc remains in the range against the dollar. The factory orders report for November, published on Tuesday, showed the orders decline by 0.7% that is worse than the average analyst forecast by 0.4%.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.0100, the next one is at 1.0030. The price is finding the resistance at 1.0200.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to long with the first target – 1.0200.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  11. #111
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    09.01.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The US dollar suspended to strengthen against its major. During the day the EUR/USD remained under pressure amid the negative euro area inflation release. According to the preliminary data the December CPI was in the negative area at the year-on- year level of 0.2%. The market received the first alarm about the deflationary threat growth. The pair euro/dollar reached the mark of 1.1801, but after the Fed's minutes publication traders cut short positions that caused a technical rebound. It should be noted that the FOMC representatives expectations, regarding inflation and employment remain the same - the first indicator will decline in the short term, while the second one shows a steady growth. It was also noted that the monetary regulator expects a higher dollar rate in 2015. The pair slightly corrected at the end of the day.


    Yesterday the Brent oil fell to the 50th figure that encouraged bears to open short positions within the pair GBP/USD. The UK 10-year bond yields fell to the 2-year low, indicating the UK inflation expectations strong decline. The pair showed a slight correction at the yesterday trades.


    After two days of sales bulls rushed to the market, opening "longs" at the attractive levels. The ADP positive employment release encouraged traders to open long positions - according to the agency the number of employees increased by 241 thousand in the private sector in December that exceeded the traders’ expectations and gives hope to the Non-Farm data output within the forecasted medians.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    Germany will publish the industry orders data. In November the PMI manufacturing sector leading indicator fell below 50%, to its lowest level since June 2013, indicating the weak data output.


    The pair EUR/USD tested the support level of 1.1770 and is consolidating below the resistance level of 1.1850.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.1770, the next one is at 1.1690. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1850, the next one is at 1.1950.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    The approach to the level of 1.1850 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the levels of support 1.1770 and 1.1690.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The pound slightly corrected. Earlier the pound was under pressure amid the rising dollar and the UK weak macroeconomic statistics.


    The Bank of England will announce its decision on interest rates and bond buyback program. It is expected that the rate will remain at the level of 0.5% and the program will be in the amount of 375 pounds.


    We observe the downward trend volatility decrease within the pair GBP/USD. However, we see the volumes growth.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5015. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.5015 soon.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    Traders will focus their attention on the US and Japan stock markets dynamics. It is premature to talk about the full corrective movement completion in the US stock market - it is necessary to wait for the confirming signals, for example, the trading day at the level of 2050 according the S & P500 index. The US 2-year Treasury bond yields over the last 10 days decreased by 10 points that is a bullish signal for the stock market.


    The pair USD/JPY returned above the upward trend line of 119.20.


    The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.


    The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level of 120.40 and the next one is at 121.60.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The pair dollar/franc overcame the second resistance level of 1.0100 and continues the upward movement. Then it slightly corrected.


    On Friday the US Labor Department will publish the government employment report that can show the new job-creating growth for 228,000 people, according to the forecasts, the unemployment rate decreased to the 6,5 year minimum by 5.7%.


    About the middle of the Tuesday American session within the given pair the bullish sentiment is dominated. The exchange rate found the strong support around the level of 1.0100.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.0100, the next one is at 1.0030. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0200, the next one is at 1.0270.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to long with the first target – 1.0200. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0270.







    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  12. #112
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    12.01.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The US dollar has suspended its winning streak. The pair EUR/USD corrected the Germany industry orders release. In November the indicator declined by 2.4%, indicating the leading euro-zone economy industrial production decline. Against this background, at the moment the pair euro/dollar reached the mark of 1.1753, after which we observed the technical rebound.


    The pair GBP/USD showed a decline to the level of 1.5033 where the bears took profits on the short positions. At the end of the week the pair grew up. The Bank of England left unchanged monetary policy. However, traders did not expect any changes. It is also worth noting that many financial institutions begin to doubt that the monetary control will raise interest rates this year.


    Strong growth in the US stock market encouraged the bears for long positions opening within the pair USD/JPY. We received a jobless claims that was worse than traders had expected, nevertheless the data showed a decline compared to the previous period. The Nasdaq index was the growth leader on the US stock market, indicating strong demand for risky assets.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    There was the euro the pros and cons balancing as a result of producer prices (PPI) Eurozone decrease in November, also the second consecutive month, -0.3% m/m, -1.6% y/y after -0.3% m/m - 1.3% y/y, and the European Commission data about the sentiment in the European business showed improvement in the consumer confidence and the sentiment in the services sector, nevertheless the industrial sector confidence has weakened.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.1770, the next one is at 1.1690. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1850, the next one is at 1.1950.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    The downward trend line 1.1850 retest is more likely to lead to the strong price support levels 1.1770, 1.1690 return.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The UK will publish the industrial production release. In November the CBI reported the industrial orders increase that is a positive factor for the industrial production. The 4th quarter PMI Manufacturing Index was at the level of 53.3% and against this background we can expect the data at the level of the forecasted medians that will support the British pound.


    The pound shows a low volatility. For a long time the price have been consolidating below the round resistance level of 1.5100 after the downward channel exit. Then the price broke upwards the resistance level of 1.5100.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5015. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    The approach to the level of 1.5200 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the level of support 1.5015.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The US positive macroeconomic statistics will strengthen not only demand for the US dollar (USDX), but also will support the US stock market. The employment growth indicates the possible GDP growth in the 4th quarter near 4% that is a positive factor for the stock market.


    The trade is continued towards the trend line of 118.00. As long as the trend line is not broken through, the potential for the further growth is maintained.


    The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    The correction is observed. Nevertheless, we believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level of 120.40 and the next one is at 121.60.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The US dollar keeps a positive attitude against the European currencies after the data output that indicate the continuing US labor market recovery that in its turn increases the likelihood of raising interest rates by the Fed in a short term.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.0100, the next one is at 1.0030. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0200, the next one is at 1.0270.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to long with the first target – 1.0200. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0270.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  13. #113
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    13.01.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The last week end was rich with macroeconomic statistics. We got two releases from Germany - industrial production and trade balance releases for November. Both reports came out negative, but traders ignored the data and took a wait before the US labor market release. The nonfarm payrolls increased by 252 thousand in December in line with our forecast. The overall unemployment rate fell down to 5.6%, dropping to its lowest level since June 2008. Against this background, we have observed the pair EUR/USD sales, but the rate was not able to fall below the minimum Thursday values and after reaching the level of 1.1765 traders took profits on the short positions. The pair grew again after a slight decrease yesterday.


    Within the pair GBP/USD bears also took profits on the short positions that supported demand for the British pound. We should also point out to the UK positive trade balance release for November that showed the negative balance reduction.


    Despite the positive US labor market statistics bulls do not hurry to open long positions in the stock market, but on the contrary, they took profits on the "longs". The correction in the stock markets put some pressure on the pair USD/JPY.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    Traders ignored the US strong labor market macroeconomic statistics and showed the lack of desire to hold short positions. On the other hand, the "black gold" prices decline supports the US dollar. The German 10-year bond yields set a fresh historic low, while the US bond yields did not update the October lows of 2014.


    The second half of the last week was held in the framework of upward correction within the euro/dollar. This correction continued yesterday after a slight falling.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.1770, the next one is at 1.1690. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1850, the next one is at 1.1950.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    The upward movement potential target is 1.1850. If the price falls it will get to 1.1770.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    We do not expect the US interesting macroeconomic releases. The UK CPI release for December will be published that will show the inflationary pressure compression.


    From the level of 1.5100 we could see the pound corrective growth against US dollar. The formed correction takes place amid the increased volumes. The current price is trading below the resistance level of 1.5200, to which buyers came towards the upward channel.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5015. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    After the level of 1.5200 breakthrough upward the way to the resistance level of 1.5300 will be opened.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The bullish trend continuation in the US stock market will maintain demand for the dollar and the Japanese corporate bonds. The Friday quotations decrease on the NYSE should be considered as a technical correction, but not as a bearish reversal. The strong employment releases point out to the strong economic growth in the 4th quarter that will support the demand for shares before the Fed meeting which will take place on January 28.


    Sellers confidently broke through the upward trend line of 119.20. The trend line breakthrough was amid the increased volume and enabled sellers to reverse the medium-term bullish trend downwards.


    The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    The potential decrease targets are the support levels: 117.00, 115.80.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The franc continues to become cheaper after the euro. Despite the slight correction the dollar keeps a positive attitude against the European currencies after the data publication, indicating the US labor market recovery continuation that in turn increases the likelihood of the Fed raising interest rates in the short term.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.0100, the next one is at 1.0030. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0200, the next one is at 1.0270.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to long with the first target – 1.0200. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 1.0270.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  14. #114
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    14.01.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The US dollar continued to strengthen against its major competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 91.96. It is worth noting that the trading day was very poor with important macroeconomic statistics and in this regard, traders focused on the commodity market dynamics. The Brent and the WTI oil once again demonstrated their weakness at the beginning of the week that supported demand for the dollar in the first half of the day. But then traders decided to take profits and we saw a rebound within some major currency pairs.


    The euro remains under the speculation pressure that the European Central Bank can implement quantitative easing in the course of the next meeting on January 22. During the weekend, the head of Italy's central bank warned that the euro zone was threatened by the deflation risk and said that the best way to deal with the looming threat was the government bonds purchase.


    On Tuesday the dollar fell to the three-week low against the yen as concerns over the continuing fall in oil prices reinforce fears about its impact on global growth and inflation, boosting demand for refuge.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    In the absence of important macroeconomic statistics traders shall focus their attention on the commodity market dynamics. Namely the bearish oil trend strengthening pushed the eurozone into a deflation and now all traders are closely monitoring the "black gold" quotes. The nearest Brent strong support level is at the mark of 47.46. We believe bears will continue to build up short positions on the short-term euro quotations growth.


    The corrective euro growth against the US dollar stopped near the downtrend channel upper bound of 1.1850. The trade towards the channel has been lasting the fifth week in a row.


    The trade volumes are in the reduced zone.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.1770, the next one is at 1.1690. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1850, the next one is at 1.1950.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    We believe the falling will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.1690.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The National statistics office shall report about the December inflation. Traditionally, we expect the retail prices growth amid the increasing consumer activity during the Christmas period. Reducing unemployment and wage growth also indicates the personal consumption increase that boosts the CPI growth.


    The pound is correcting against the US dollar amid the low volatility and low volumes. As a result correction moves towards the upward channel.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5015. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    We expect the 1.5200 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.5300.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    Japan will publish the payment balance. In November the Bank of Japan reported the foreign exchange reserves increase that indicates the surplus growth. Also this month there was a strong inflow of foreign investment into the stock market that also points to the positive data output.


    After the upper trend line 119.20 break the two downward channels on the daily chart were formed.


    The price is finding the first support at 117.00, the next one is at 115.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 118.00, the next one is at 119.20.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    If the price fixates below the support 118.00, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 117.00.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The pair dollar/franc will trade with a tendency to decrease, being under the demand pressure for the franc within the falling pairs AUD/CHF, NZD/CHF and CAD/CHF, as a result of oil prices falling a demand for commodity currencies have declined.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.0100, the next one is at 1.0030. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0200, the next one is at 1.0270.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to long with the first target – 1.0270.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  15. #115
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    15.01.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The US dollar was in demand against its main competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 92.27. During the day the pair EUR/USD remained under pressure amid the "black gold" prices falling. During the day the Brent oil set a fresh low that supported a demand for the dollar.


    The UK inflation release disappointed traders - the December CPI fell down to 0.5% in annual terms that is the lowest level since May 2000. The first inflationary pressure compression is caused by the lower oil price. As a result the pair GBP/USD showed a decline to the mark of 1.5076 after which traders took profits and we saw a technical rebound.


    On Tuesday the pair USD/JPY took a ride on a roller coaster. At the beginning of the trading day Japan released the November positive payment balance that encouraged bears for short positions opening. At the moment the price fell to the mark of 117.75 where the bulls began to form "longs". The growth in the Tokyo stock market supported a demand for the US dollar and during the European session 118.84. However, after the US stock market sales, the pair dollar/yen was able to update the local lows.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The euro zone shall publish the November industrial production release. The currency bloc leading economies (France and Germany) have already reported about the manufacturing sector slowdown. The Macroeconomic Research Center Markit Economics recorded the Manufacturing PMI index decrease to the level of 50.1% that is the lowest level since June 2013. Now we can expect the data worse than the consensus forecast that will put pressure on the euro.


    The continued price consolidation near 1.1850 was the signal for the bearish trend continuation. The prices rebound fell down to the low near 1.1770 last week. We observe here a consolidation. The trade volumes are in a decrease zone.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.1770, the next one is at 1.1690. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1850, the next one is at 1.1950.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The upward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.1850 soon. The potential decrease target is the support level of 1.1690





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    We can expect the negative comments about the UK inflation in the short term. Inflation in the United Kingdom is significantly deviated from the target rate of 2% and now the head of the Bank of England will have to explain it to the Minister of Finance.


    Buyers came to the level of 1.5200 towards the upward channel. The level testing was followed by the rebound with the following channel lower bound 1.5100 breakthrough. The pair increased from this level and broke through the resistance level of 1.5200.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5400.


    The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement.


    The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.5300. We do not exclude the falls to 1.5015.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The US retail sales release is able to demonstrate growth and exit within the consensus. The hourly wages growth by 0.2% in November can spur demand in the Christmas period. The consumer confidence positive releases from the Conference Board and the University of Michigan confirmed the positive trend.


    There was a strong support level of 117.00 breakthrough. Due to the formed breakthrough bears strengthened their positions and continued the trade towards the downward channel.


    The price is finding the first support at 115.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 118.00, the next one is at 119.20.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The potential decrease target is the support level of 115.80.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The Swiss franc fell against the dollar. The dollar index reached almost the 10year peak on speculations that the Federal Reserve will raise its key rate this year.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.0100, the next one is at 1.0030. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0200, the next one is at 1.0270.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to long with the first target – 1.0270.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  16. #116
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    16.01.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The US dollar was trading different directed against its main competitors. During the day the EUR/USD showed a high volatility. The EU court issued a verdict on the European Stability Mechanism legality that caused the euro sales as the ECB can now safely run the QE program.


    During the day the pair GBP/USD enjoyed moderate demand amid the strong EUR/GBP cross-rate reduction as well as the US weak statistics. The strong bearish sentiment within the single European currency put pressure not only on the euro/dollar, but also on the euro/pound cross-rate that in its turn supported the demand for the British pound. The December retail sector sales rate decreased by 0.9%, the November report was also revised towards reduction.


    The pair USD/JPY showed the sales decline amid the Tokyo stock exchange sales, but bulls returned to the market and began to open long positions. The US retail sales negative report sent the pair dollar/yen to 116.30.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The pair EUR/USD set a new multi-year low, reaching the level of 1.1590 after the European Court advisor’s announcement that the quantitative easing program can be carried out to the full extent.


    Investors' attention is drawn to the Germany's GDP data publication for 2014. The Germany's GDP growth was 1.5% in 2014. In Germany consumer activity increased by 1.1% in 2014, but export volumes increased by 3.7%.


    The pair EUR/USD was consolidating at the support level of 1.1770. Then it fell and broke the support levels of 1.1770 and 1.1690 and decreased to the level of 1.1590.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.1590, the next one is at 1.1520. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1690, the next one is at 1.1770.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    The seller need to break below 1.1590 for a steady decrease. The way to the mark 1.1520 will be opened after this breakthrough.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The British pound can not demonstrate its power against its US counterpart.


    The United States will publish the producer price index release, from which it is difficult to expect surprises due to strong commodity market sales that will support the pound.


    The EUR/GBP quotations growth amid the Germany negative macroeconomic statistics will also support the British pound.


    The pair GBP/USD broke through but could not fixed above the resistance level of 1.5200.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5015. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.


    The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.


    The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    The pair may go to 1.5100 soon. The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.5300, 1.5400.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    On the one hand, the US negative macroeconomic statistics will support the Japanese yen. On the other hand, the current levels already look attractive for opening long positions, based on the long-term upward trend continuation.


    The pair USD/JPY rebounded from the strong resistance level of 118.00 downwards. The pair broke through the support level of 117.00.


    The price is finding the first support at 115.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 118.00, the next one is at 119.20.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    The approach to the level of 115.80 may lead to a price consolidation.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  17. #117
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    20.01.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The US dollar continued to strengthen against its major competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished last week at the mark of 92.65, setting a new high for the last 11 years. The pair EUR/USD was again under attack, despite the US inflation and industrial production negative macroeconomic statistics. Nevertheless we see a slight correction on the pair. Disregard for weak reports indicates the strong bearish sentiment for the major currency pairs.


    During the day the pair GBP/USD was consolidating. Earlier it fell by 0.24% - the pair EUR/GBP cross-rate decrease deterred the British pound decrease. This day Great Britain did not please traders with macroeconomic statistics and the downward trend was amid the US dollar growth along the entire market.


    Strong growth in the US stock market encouraged bulls to short. The stock market reacted positively to the inflationary pressure compression - low inflation expands the US Federal Reserve soft monetary policy cycle that has traditionally been a bullish factor for the stock market. The US 2-year bond yields which reflect expectations for the Fed rates and for the last three weeks have been declining and reached the level of 0.48% that confirms the positive trend for the stock market.






    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    Of course, the main event of the trading week will be the euro zone monetary authorities meeting on Thursday January 22. Everybody cares only the one question - the ECB incentive program options. As traders ignore the US weak inflation data, then we are dealing with the strong bearish trend and on the short-term quotations growth it is necessary to build up short positions.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.1590, the next one is at 1.1520. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1690, the next one is at 1.1770.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The approach to the level of 1.1690 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target are the support levels of 1.1520, 1.1400.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    Despite the strong dollar bullish trend the British pound failed to update the current month minimum values, indicating the investors’ reluctance to get rid of the "cable". The commodity market stabilization deprives the US dollar support while the UK and the US negative bond yields reduction, on the other hand adds dividends to the British pound. An additional factor for the bulls is the negative expectations for the euro that increases pressure on the cross-rate EUR/GBP which in its turn supports demand for the pound.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5015. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.


    The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.


    The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is falling.


    Trading recommendations


    The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.3665. The downward bounce potential target is 1.5015.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    In the absence of Japan important macroeconomic statistics publication as well as the bank holiday in the United States, traders will focus their attention on the trades’ dynamics in the Tokyo stock exchange. The US inflation Friday's release encouraged bulls to long, as a result we have seen all three major indices steady growth. We expect demand for Japanese corporate bonds which will also support the USD/JPY bulls.


    The price is finding the first support at 117.00, the next one is at 115.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 118.00, the next one is at 119.20.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    The potential growth target is the resistance level of 118.00.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The liquidity volume will continue to be small after the Swiss National Bank canceled the lower limit for the euro/franc on Thursday that is 1.20, it lowered interest rates on deposits for demand by 0.5% to -0.75%.


    The demand for the franc puts pressure on the pair against other major currencies. Its potential decrease is constrained by its sales at the low levels, the positive market’s attitude to the dollar, Switzerland negative interest rates and the likelihood of intervention by the Swiss National Bank.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.8740, the next one is at 0.8540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.8940, the next one is at 0.9150.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    The pair is consolidating now. We advise to short with the first target - 0.8540. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.8340





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  18. #118
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    22.01.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    There was a mixed sentiment and tendency yesterday. The ZEW Institute published the Germany business environment positive release, still we did not see a strong demand for the euro. At the moment quotations reached the level of 1.1675 after which there was a technical rebound, indicating the traders’ reluctance to open long positions.


    On the contrary, the pair GBP/USD showed a strong growth. However, the "cable" reached the level of 1.5060 amid the lower energy prices. But then, bears decided to take profits on short positions which allowed the pound to regain some lost ground. Then the pair fell again.


    The pair USD/JPY is in a steady demand. The moderate oil prices decline that we see from the beginning of the trading week supports the dollar as the commodity assets prices denominated in the US dollar. Some traders believe that the Bank of Japan can declare the incentive program increase and against this background "longs" are more preferable.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The ZEW institute Germany business climate positive release shows the strong euro sellers presence. This factor confirms the negative expectations for the pair. It is now extremely dangerous to open long positions. Today on January 22 the ECB will announce the monetary policy meeting results.


    The downward trend moved within a lateral corridor near the levels of 1.1650 - 1.1540. But at the same time, the trade is still towards the downward channel.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.1520, the next one is at 1.1400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1590, the next one is at 1.1690.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    We expect the 1.1520 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 1.1400, 1.1300.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The Bank of England monetary policy last meeting minutes is in the center of traders’ attention. On the one hand, the UK inflationary pressure compression because of the lower hydrocarbon prices indicates the monetary authorities negative expectations in the short term. On the other hand, the unemployment reduction and the wage growth will increase private consumption in the long term that will spur the CPI growth.


    Having not reached the support level of 1.5015, the pound turned upwards towards the correction and rose to the level of 1.5200. The pair fell from this level and tested the support level of 1.5100.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5015. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is falling.


    Trading recommendations


    The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.5300, 1.5400.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The next Japanese monetary regulator meeting shall not support the national currency. The recent key macroeconomic indicators do not indicate the negative trend breakthrough. Industrial production continues to show its weakness.


    The bulls’ advantage over bears was lost by the price return into the downward channel. Moreover, sellers turned back the price beyond the support level of 118.00.


    The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.


    The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 115.80 soon.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The US dollar traded rather moderately against the Swiss franc on speculations that the Fed was going to raise interest rates while other major central banks are planning to implement stimulating measures for economic growth and inflation recovery.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.8740, the next one is at 0.8540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.8940, the next one is at 0.9150.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to short with the first target - 0.8540. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.8340.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  19. #119
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    23.01.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The US dollar continued to rise against its main competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 93.04. The traders’ attention was focused on the ECB meeting. The pair EUR/USD sharply fell.


    On Wednesday the pound was under attack after the MPC last meeting minutes publication. The monetary regulator pointed out to the CPI decrease continuation to zero in the 1st quarter. The number of "hawks" reduced to zero in the Bank of England – McCafferty and Weale no longer vote for the interest rates increase. The Central Bank economists also reported the downside risks growth for the Eurozone economy which will act as a deterrent for the UK economic growth.


    Yesterday the pair USD/JPY demonstrated its high volatility. And it is not surprising –the Bank of Japan announced the monetary policy meeting results. Monetary authorities lowered the inflation forecast and the GDP for the fiscal year of 2015. The incentive program also has not undergone any revision, despite the expectations of volume incentives increase by some Wall Street economists.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The ECB announced its decision about the stimulating measures. They launched the QE program. The European Central Bank shall begin to buy the secondary market assets worth up to 60 billion euros a month in March 2015, and it will continue to improve the stability of inflation or to the end of September 2016.


    The sixth week in a row the euro is declining against the US dollar towards the downward channel. Buyers tried to break through the channel upper bound of 1.1590 – but this attempt was unsuccessful. The pair fell and broke the support levels of 1.1520 and 1.1400.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1400, the next one is at 1.1520.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1300, 1.1170.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The ECB meeting results announcement is in the center of traders’ attention. Last year when the Eurozone monetary authorities declared the monetary policy easing- the British pound declined after its European counterparts.


    The current price was trading within the rectangle levels of 1.5200 - 1.5050. Its rebound from the resistance level of 1.5200 enabled sellers to come up to the support level of 1.5100. This support was broken down and the support level of 1.5015 was tested.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5015, the next one is at 1.4920. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5100, the next one is at 1.5200.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is falling.


    Trading recommendations


    If the price fixates below the support 1.5015, it may consolidate in the short term. Then the pair can grow. The potential growth target is 1.5200.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The Bank of Japan negative forecasts for the fiscal year of 2015 call into question the further Japanese yen growth. Today in the absence of Japan and the US important macroeconomic statistics publication traders will focus their attention on the global stock market dynamics.


    After the prices rebound downwards below the support level of 118.00 there was a new downward channel formed. The trade volumes are in the decrease zone. Now the pair is trading above the level of 118.00.


    The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.


    There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    The upward correction potential target is 119.20. If the price falls it will get to 117.00, 115.80.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    According to the ZEW the attitude towards the franc declined amid the falling Switzerland economic sentiment index for January - Credit Suisse (-4.9 to -10.8 from December). Potential pair reduction is also constrained by the positive market attitude towards the dollar, by the Switzerland negative interest rates and the intervention threat by the Swiss National Bank with the franc sales.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.8540, the next one is at 0.8340. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.8740, the next one is at 0.8940.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is increasing.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to short with the first target - 0.8540. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.8340.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  20. #120
    ValdisTF


    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    26.01.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The main last week event was the ECB's monetary policy meeting results announcement. There was only one question on the agenda - what the amount of incentives would be? During the week there were various rumors - the numbers ranged from 500 billion euro to $ 1 trillion euro. Those traders who expected the maximum level turned out to be right.


    The Eurozone monetary regulator decided to purchase assets in the amount of 60 billion euro starting with this year March. Thus, the ECB balance will be increased by 1.08 trillion euro till September 1, 2016. Financial markets have reacted to the news as it was forecasted: the euro, the pound and the Japanese yen came under a sales wave. Stock markets, on the contrary, reacted positively to the QE introduction by the Eurozone monetary authorities.


    Last week till its decline the pound was supported by the unexpectedly strong data and finally grew. The UK retail sales rose up by 0.4% m / m in December 2014 while analysts forecasted a decline by 0.6%. The renewed wages growth has a positive impact on consumer sentiment and spending that helps to offset the negative impact on the economy from the euro zone part which is experiencing deflation and growth slowdown.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The ECB announced all key milestones and now we can expect the moderate euro quotations decline before the Federal Reserve meeting on January 28. The Eurozone manufacturing sector business activity index rose to the level of 51 in January compared to 50.6 in December. These data coincided with economists' forecasts.


    The rebound from the upper channel bound of 1.1590 was on the increased volume and enabled sellers to break through the support levels of 1.1520, 1.1400 and 1.1300.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.1170, the next one is at 1.1040. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1300, the next one is at 1.1400.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.1040 and 1.0925 soon.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    According to the data released by the UK National Statistics Office, the retail sales volume including the fuel costs increased by 0.4% on a monthly basis in December, compared with a growth by 1.6% recorded in November. After the ECB's decision to launch the QE from March 1 there was a strong demand for the US dollar.


    Sellers have strengthened the downward trend, breaking through and consolidating below the strong support level of 1.5015.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.4920, the next one is at 1.4800. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5015, the next one is at 1.5100.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.4920, 1.4800.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    Today Japan and the United States will not please traders with interesting macroeconomic releases and in this regard, all traders’ attention will be focused on the stock markets dynamics. The QE program launching by the European Central Bank supported demand for risky assets.


    The upward correction is still preserved after rebound from the support near 115.80 with this instrument. Before reaching the downward channel upper bound of 119.20, the price stopped above 118.00, but could not fixate there and fell below.


    The price is finding the first support at 117.00, the next one is at 115.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 118.00, the next one is at 119.20.


    The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    We may expect a growth towards 119.20 further on we expect the fall to 115.80.







    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



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