"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


09.10.2014


Fundamental analysis


The US dollar has weakened slightly against its main competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at around 85.68. The EUR/USD remained under pressure amid the negative German industrial production release. In August, the index fell to a record 4% which indicates the possible European largest economy recession.


The Great Britain also issued the industrial production release for August. The data came out worse than the forecasted medians, but were not as bad as the German ones. At first traders rushed to sell the pound sterling against the negative macroeconomic release, but then the bullish market sentiment was observed.


The pair USD/JPY has finished in the "red zone" for the second day in a row. According to the Bank of Japan meeting release there appeared the negative economic impact after the sales tax introduction. Also the monetary regulator pointed out to the industrial production weakness. Despite the negative comments the Japanese yen was able to strengthen its position against the American dollar. The main dollar/yen sale reason appeared to be the American stock markets that fell from 1 to 1.5%.





Technical analysis


Euro (EUR)


General overview


The tone became negative in the market after the report had noted the August sharp German industrial orders decline, raising fears that the eurozone largest economy is falling into a recession. The FOMC meeting minutes were published.


The downward trend line of 1.2670 is a main resistance for this pair. This level retest was followed by the price downward rebound. Buyers came to this downward trend line amid the reduced volume.


The price is finding the first support at 1.2600, the next one is at 1.2500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2670, the next one is at 1.2730.


The price is on the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.


Trading recommendations


The price is likely to go downward to the level of 1.2600. After breaking 1.3665 the pair may go to 1.2500.





Pound (GBP)


General overview


The pound set up the two day high and then it again rebounded. The UK industrial production is not in its best condition.


The downward trend line retest of 1.6100 was followed by the consolidation. Then the price dropped down and returned to the support level of 1.6030.


The price is finding the first support at 1.6030, the next one is at 1.5950. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6100, the next one is at 1.6180.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is falling.


Trading recommendations


The price is possible to consolidate below the level 1.6060. The potential decrease target is the support level 1.5950.





Yen (JPY)


General overview


The yen strengthened after the International Monetary Fund had lowered its global economic growth forecast for both this and next year and had warned that the global economic recovery was weak and uneven.


The sellers were able to break through the strong support level of 108.50. The price did not manage to consolidate below the level despite it decreased to 108.00. This level was an additional obstacle, from which the pair bounced upward.


The price is finding the first support at 108.00, the next one is at 107.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 108.50, the next one is at 109.40.


There is a non-confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horisontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


Trading recommendations


We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 109.00.





Franc (CHF)


General overview


The Swiss franc has strengthened its position on Tuesday amid the technical correction against the dollar. Even the weak national statistics publication did not stop the franc growth the last few days.


The retail sales report issued in Switzerland showed an increase of 1.9% against 0.7%. Traders successfully used this opportunity to justify the franc strengthening.


The price is finding the first support at 0.9560, the next one is at 0.9500. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9680.


There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is falling.


Trading recommendations


We advise to short with the first target - 0.9430. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9370.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


10.10.2014


Fundamental analysis


The last Federal Reserve meeting report knocked down the US dollar - the dollar index basket (USDX) came to the mark 85.35. Then the dollar won back some positions.


The FOMC currently believe to keep the federal fund rates low "for an extended period of time." It was told that the dollar revaluation against its major competitors could prevent inflationary pressure and also lead to the negative payment balance increase. It was emphasized that the Eurozone weak economy has the possibility to continue the dollar quotations growth in the foreign exchange market.


The euro remained under pressure after the data which reported a sharp August industrial orders decline in Germany, fearing that the euro zone's largest economy deviates towards the recession.


The disappointing data reinforced our views that the European Central Bank would resort to the new stimulating measures to promote economic growth.


According to the two-day policy meeting results, the Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy unchanged, but it acknowledged that the reducing consumption after the April sales tax increase leads to an economic weakness.





Technical analysis


Euro (EUR)


General overview


The euro fell again at the end of the trading day. Earlier during the FOMC meeting minutes’ publication the US dollar weakened sharply towards the major currency pairs, breaking through the strong levels. The euro received some support with the some long dollar positions closing after the FOMC meeting minutes’ publication.


The resistance level was the downward trend line of 1.2670 for the EUR/ USD. Technically, the trend line break through has led to the downward trend upward turn. We expect the price growth to the nearest resistance level of 1.2850 in the long term.


The price is finding the first support at 1.2670, the next one is at 1.2600. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2730, the next one is at 1.2790.


The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movment and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


Trading recommendations


We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.2850.





Pound (GBP)


General overview


The Britain currency decreased at the yesterday’s trading. Before this the pound has considerably strengthened its position against the dollar.


Investors are waiting for the Bank of England interest rates decision that will be announced today.


The upper bound channel breakthrough of 1.6100 was followed by the high volume formation. The subsequent growth rates allow customers to consolidate above the strong resistance level of 1.6180 where the price is being traded now.


The price is finding the first support at 1.6100, the next one is at 1.6030. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6180, the next one is at 1.6270.


There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is falling.


Trading recommendations


We expect the 1.6180 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.6270.





Yen (JPY)


General overview


The US dollar has fallen against the Japanese yen. The Japanese yen received some support after the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had expressed his concern about the yen weakness impact on the national economy.


The level of 108.50 upward testing was unsuccessful. Sellers returned the price below the support level of 108.00, thus confirming their intention to continue the downward trend.


The level of 108.00 reverse break was amid the high volume.


The price is finding the first support at 107.60, the next one is at 107.10. The price is finding the first resistance at 108.00, the next one is at 108.50.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


Trading recommendations


The potential decrease targets are the support levels: 107.10, 106.70.





Franc (CHF)


General overview


The dollar managed to increase at the trades end. It is worth to be noted that earlier the dollar reduced its achievements against the major currencies after the FOMC meeting publication where the world’s economic recovery risks were noted, connected with the global growth deceleration and the dollar rise.


The price is finding the first support at 0.9500, the next one is at 0.9430. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9560, the next one is at 0.9620.


The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


Trading recommendations


We advise to short with the first target - 0.9430. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9370.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


13.10.2014


Fundamental analysis


There is an uncertainty sentiment in the currency market - the US dollar has significantly strengthened against its major competitors in the recent months and the technical correction is long overdue, however, the dollar bears’ first attempt was unsuccessful. The Fed gave hope to the bears last week but the “black gold” quotations decrease supported the American currency later. It should be noted that the oil sales have a negative impact on the whole world's leading economy, as inflation is now below the level of 2% and the oil bearish trend will have a significant pressure on the CPI.


Against this backdrop, investors think which currency will be the most affected due to the low inflation expectations. In this regard, we have observed the US dollar demand - traders left the commodity market and transferred their assets in cash, namely in the US dollar.


The initial jobless claims release which came out better than the forecasted medians has also raised the dollar bulls’ sentiment. Four-week initial jobless claims average set a fresh yearly low at around 287.75K which indicates the American labor market positive trends.





Technical analysis


Euro (EUR)


General overview


Investors’ sentiment has changed with the eurozone economic data and the European currency was in the sales wave. The price movement, directed to the rising channel, has turned down.


The price turned back to the support level of 1.2600 amid the high-volume that has acted as the strong resistance for a long time. The level breakthrough has not occurred yet.


The price is finding the first support at 1.2600, the next one is at 1.2500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2670, the next one is at 1.2730.


The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement.


The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.


Trading recommendations


The price is likely to go to the downward trend line 1.2600. The potential decrease targets are the support levels: 1.2500, 1.2400.





Pound(GBP)


General overview


The pound tried to continue its growth against the dollar, but it ended the last week with a decline as the euro did. The UK important events have not provoked any significant reaction in the market as the Bank of England did not change its monetary policy parameters.


The downtrend is still in progress. The corrective growth rates were stopped from the support level of 1.6100. The downward trend line of 1.6180 did not let buyers to go upwards. The trend line testing was followed by the price rebound to the support level of 1.6030.


The price is finding the first support at 1.6030, the next one is at 1.5950. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6100, the next one is at 1.6180.


There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.


Trading recommendations


After the trend line 1.6030 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.5950 will be opened.





Yen (JPY)


General overview


The trades were in the context of the dollar rise for the most major currency pairs. However, this correlation was ignored by the Japanese yen which gradually leads to the position recovery after the long decrease.


The stock markets’ falling optimism and the neutral situation in the US national debts market resulted in the investors’ return to the Japanese yen.


The key support level of 108.00 was broken through. In this case, the current trade is in the descending channel direction. It should also be noted that the trading volumes are at the high levels.


The price is finding the first support at 107.60, the next one is at 107.10. The price is finding the first resistance at 108.00, the next one is at 108.50.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


Trading recommendations


If the price fixates below the support 107.10, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 106.70.





Franc (CHF)


General overview


The franc has lost some won positions against the US dollar and started a consolidation.


The price is finding the first support at 0.9560, the next one is at 0.9500. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9680.


The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


Trading recommendations


We advise to short with the first target - 0.9500. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9430.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


14.10.2014


Fundamental analysis


The US dollar could compensate some lost ground - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the last week at 85.81. The pair EUR/USD decreased by 0.5% amid the investors’ escape from the risky assets. Absolutely all the world's leading stock indecies came under a sales wave on Friday, prompting asset managers to get rid of the decreased euro. There was no important the US and eurozone macroeconomic statistics publication.


During the day the pound also was under pressure as well as the euro. Even the August UK positive trade balance has not helped the British currency. The negative balance was reduced to the level of 9.09 billion pounds in August that is significantly better than the forecasted medians. Inflation expectations became lower in Britain that calls into question the monetary policy tightening by the Bank of England in early 2015. In this regard, traders are afraid to open "longs" within the GBP/USD and we observe the downward trend development.


The USD/JPY was trading within a range of 107.60- 108.00. Amid the empty macroeconomic calendar the traders’ attention is focused on the US and Japan stock markets trade dynamics. Despite the fact that the US dollar was strengthening along the entire market against the Japanese yen, it finished the trading day in the "red zone." That bearish trend on the stock markets did not allow the dollar/yen to overcome October 9 high.





Technical analysis


Euro (EUR)


General overview


The euro was in a side direction trades at the first trading day and increased at the end of the trading day against the dollar. The ECB functionaries’ statements led to the euro lower interest the last week that confirm once again the Fed's and the European regulator’s policies polarity. M. Draghi said that the euro zone economic risks are tilted to the downside at the conference in Washington and if inflation is still low, the bank's control board will implement additional unconventional policy measures.


The price is finding the first support at 1.2600, the next one is at 1.2500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2670, the next one is at 1.2730.


There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a “Dead cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.


Trading recommendations


We expect the euro growth. The potential growth target is the last week's high – the resistance level of 1.2790.





Pound (CHF)


General overview


The British pound has fallen against the US dollar. Obviously, the market shifts our expectations, concerning the first rate increase by the Bank of England to the middle of 2015, until recently, we expected the policy tightening at the end of the year. Apparently, such sentiment is improving due to the Bank of England omission, based on a series of the UK economic indicators, indicating slowdown and fears for the processes in the overall Eurozone economy.


The British pound has been trading in the downward trend line direction four months in a row. Short-term tests were followed by a trend line bounce rates down with the further bearish trend continuation.


At the moment buyers tried again to correct the price to the trend line of 1.6180. The trading volumes did not support just formed correction. Apparently, the downward trend line retest of 1.6180 will lead to another price rebound downwards.


The price is finding the first support at 1.6030, the next one is at 1.5950. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6100, the next one is at 1.6180.


There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.


Trading recommendations


The potential rebound target will be the current month low - the support level of 1.5950.





Yen (JPY)


General overview


The Japanese yen has not broken the last week trends and has strengthened against the dollar once again. The stock market events caused the yen rising popularity for the five days after the pessimistic views and the state "treasuries" profitability decline. The political component also contributed to the yen demand namely the Japan Prime Minister Abe unexpected statements that the yen decrease undermines the small businesses and households’ development.


It is also worth noting that the trade is in the decreasing channel direction. The resistance level of 107.60 short break will be stopped by the channel 108.00 upper bound where it is likely to expect the downward correction continuation.


The price is finding the first support at 107.10, the next one is at 106.70. The price is finding the first resistance at 107.60, the next one is at 108.00.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


Trading recommendations


The potential price decreasing targets are the levels of 107.10, 106.70.





Franc (CHF)


General overview


The franc still tries to rise. The Swiss currency resumed its decline against the dollar last week. The Fed representative Stanley Fischer said in his speech that the Fed would not intervene in the foreign exchange market and called the recent dollar rise entirely appropriate. He also noted that the US dollar would remain low for some time that can mean a two months or a year range.


The price is finding the first support at 0.9500, the next one is at 0.9430. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9560, the next one is at 0.9620.


There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


Trading recommendations


We advise to long with the first target - 0.9620. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9680.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


15.10.2014


Fundamental analysis


The first half of the week passed quietly enough amid the lack of important macroeconomic statistics. The EUR/USD consolidated near the resistance level of 1.2698. Traders do not hurry to open new positions and in this regard the trade passed quietly enough.


The speech of Fed’s deputy head S. Fischer caused some pressure on the US dollar who stated that the slower foreign economic growth can make the Fed treat the soft policy closure less aggressively. The US bond treasury collapse had a negative impact on the dollar.


We got the German wholesale prices which pointed out to the continued year decrease -0.9% y / y vs. -0.6% y / y and the ECB board member P. Pratt touched once again in his speech the subject upon the eurozone deflation risks.


The pair GBP/USD has reached the level of 1.6125, after that the bears assumed a counter offensive. The UK bond yields set a fresh yearly low on Monday, indicating the weaker inflationary pressure. In this regard, the British pound will not be in demand among traders as the Bank of England can take a pause in tightening the monetary policy in early 2015.


Despite the fact that the long-term trend is still in force – the USD / JPY traders do not rush to open long positions. The external background is clearly not on the bulls’ side – the first reason is the US dollar decrease against its major counterparts and the second is the downward trend in the American market.





Technical analysis


Euro (EUR)


The US dollar suffered a loss for the first time in three trading sessions after the Fed member’s statement about the possible interest rates rise delay due to the world economic slowdown.


The eurozone expects negative news. The August industrial production is expected to be-1.5% against its growth by 1.0% in July, the ZEW economic sentiment indicator for October in Germany is expected to decline from 6.9 to 0.2 points, the ZEW economic sentiment in eurozone is expected to decline from 14.2 to 7.1.


The euro corrective growth against the US dollar is not supported by the trade volumes.


The price is finding the first support at 1.2600, the next one is at 1.2500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2670, the next one is at 1.2730.


There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a “Dead cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


Trading recommendations


As a result of the resistance level of 1.2670 breakthrough upwards, the next target for buyers will be the mark of 1.2730.





Pound (GBP)


We do not expect positive news for the British pound- the BRC retail sales for September showed a 2.1% year-on-year decline against the 1.3% growth in August.


The UK consumer price index (CPI) for September is expected to decline from 1.5% to 1.4% y/y.


The base CPI (excluding motor vehicles) is expected to be 1.8% y/y vs. 1.9% y/y in August.


The UK retail price index (RPI) is expected to be 2.3% y / y vs. 2.4% y / y.


The producer prices are expected to decline at the entrance by 0.4% m/m, in the output by 0.1% m/m


The pair GBP/USD is corrected to the downward trend line of 1.6200. The trading volumes do not support the formed correction.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


Trading recommendations


The potential rebound target will be the month low- the resistance level of 1.6030.





Yen (JPY)


After a ten year reduction the Japanese is going to rebound amid the US stock indices decline by 1.3% -1.6%, and the Nikkei225reduction by 1.45% and the producer price index fall for September by 3.5% y/y vs. 3 9% y / y in August.


We expect the neutral retail sales data and strong industrial production ones and construction indicators on Thursday and on Friday. After these data the yen can rise up.


The pair USD/JPY is consolidating below the strong resistance level of 107.35


The short-term price consolidation below 107.35 is more likely to lead to a rebound and to the further price decline.


The price is finding the first support at 106.70, the next one is at 106.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 107.10, the next one is at 107.60.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


Trading recommendations


The potential target for the price decline is the support level of 106.30.





Franc (CHF)


The Swiss franc continues to consolidate near the lows against the dollar. The Switzerland Central bank head Jordan said that the regulator would protect the exchange rate lower threshold through intervention if it was necessary.


We observe the dollar weaknesses against the major currencies, against the yen in particular as investors argue once again about the possible earlier interest rate increase by the US central bank.


From a technical point of view, the USD/CHF is trading above 0.9500. It is presented below support at the level of 0.9470. The resistance is at the level of 0.9600 and 0.9680 and is upwards at the level of 0.9830.


There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


Trading recommendations


We recommend the short positions with the first target at 0.9430. If the first target is overcome, the next target will be 0.9370.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


16.10.2014


Fundamental analysis


The US dollar was able to regain some lost ground - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at around 85.84. The pair EUR/USD is not still able to determine the direction. If it was not for the Fed's statement, the dollar revaluation would be able to prevent inflationary pressure - the bears were able to set the fresh lows. The bulls were able to overclock quotes to the mark of 1.2767 in the Asian session amid the US and German 10-year bonds spread decline. But after the weak release by the ZEW Institute, we observed the price decrease. The oil market sales only intensify deflationary expectations and, in this regard, we saw a fresh one-year low on the German 10-year bond yields.


The pair GBP/USD fell strongly - the trade ended by 1.13% quotes decline. CPI showed a 1.2% year- on- year decline in September which indicates the lower inflationary pressure. Against this background, the UK monetary regulator will not hurry to raise interest rates that is a negative factor for the currency. Traders were trying to get rid of the British pound the whole day that led to the massive pound sell-offs along the entire market.


Stock markets showed a positive trend the whole day which supported the moderate US dollar demand amid the lack of interesting US and Japan macroeconomic releases.





Technical analysis


Euro (EUR)


The Eurozone economic news was clearly not on the European currency side. In fact all the published indicators caused the sales resumption and the euro ended the session with its decline against the US dollar.


The euro corrective growth against the dollar was stopped by the lower bound channel breakthrough of 1.2790. The breakthrough of such a strong resistance was amid the low volumes and the further EUR volatile news.


The price is finding the first support at 1.2730, the next one is at 1.2670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2790, the next one is at 1.2850.


There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


Trading recommendations


The current upward movement is considered as a correction so far. The correction can reach 1.2850 where we expect a return to the fall.





Pound (GBP)


Like the euro the British pound also was under the strong pressure against the US dollar. The pound sales were caused by the UK economic data, noting that the UK inflation became slower in September than it was expected. We expect the UK employment data and the salary dynamics information.


Negative fundamental data within the GBP (Consumer Price Index) led to a confident bearish trend continuation. At yesterday's trading session traders were able to get out of the rising channel and broke through the support level of 1.5950 downwards.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


Trading recommendations


The decrease shall be continued. The targets are 1.5860 and 1.5770.





Yen (JPY)


The events at the yesterday's dollar/yen trading session showed non-permanent market views. Investors are more reluctant to take risks, concerning the global economic growth that has put pressure on the US dollar and the levels to which the US dollar fell were good for its sale. As a result, the US dollar traded against the yen in the narrow corridor and it had a very small plus at the end of the day.


The price is finding the first support at 105.70, the next one is at 105.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 106.30, the next one is at 106.70.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


Trading recommendations


The potential target for the price decline is the support level of 105.20.





Franc (CHF)


The US and eurozone weak macroeconomic data put pressure on the pound and the euro on Tuesday as investors continue to consider that the US economic prospects are better than the Europe ones.


Against this background the US dollar has only won as it was able to recover after the Monday fall against the Swiss franc.


The price is finding the first support at 0.9430, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9500, the next one is at 0.9560.


There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


Trading recommendations


We recommend the short positions with the first target at 0.9430. If the first target is overcome, the next target will be 0.9370.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


17.10.2014


Fundamental analysis


Yesterday we observed a high volatility in all financial markets due to the credit markets turbulence. All major global bond yields have sharply fallen, indicating the possible deflationary collapse in the short term. The US 10-year bond treasuries fell to the level of 1.86% that caused long dollar positions rapid elimination. Despite the fact that the German bonds also updated the yearly lows yields – the pair EUR / USD has sharply increased fearing that the Fed will not close the QE-3 this month.


The pair GBP / USD is still under pressure, despite the fact that it has completed the third trading day in positive area. The August unemployment rate reduced to the level of 6% in the UK and the moderate salary increase is a positive signal for the economy. If it was not for the lower inflationary pressure, traders would have an excellent opportunity to start a "bull rally." However, the low CPI is a strong deterrent and against this background the pound set a fresh low during the day for the past 11 months. The US and UK 10-year bond yields strongly expanded on Wednesday that was a negative factor for the British currency.


The pair USD/JPY came under a powerful sales wave on Wednesday amid the drastic US 10-year bond yields reduction. The US inflation expectations have weakened with the sales on the stock markets that point out to the possible deflationary spiral in the world's largest economy. In the light of this traders bought the yen.





Technical analysis


Euro (EUR)


The German inflation reports pointed out to the continued price stagnation in September that was at the very low levels after their final evaluation - September CPI has kept the previous two months indicators, having fixed 0.0% m/m and 0.8% y/y. The US economic weak data provided the euro growth popularity.


The US dollar sharply weakened its position against its major currency pairs. The formed correction was followed by very high volumes on many trade assets that indicate the further dollar decrease.


The price is finding the first support at 1.2730, the next one is at 1.2670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2790, the next one is at 1.2850.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


Trading recommendations


The current upward movement is considered as a correction so far. The correction can reach 1.2850 where we expect a return to the fall. We expect the return to a decrease every moment now.





Pound (GBP)


The British pound has also increased against the US dollar. Buyers were able to return the price to the resistance level of 1.6100. In this case the price return was amid the very high trading volume.


Despite the fact that the high volume appeared within the bullish trade, the trend is still downward in the medium term. There can be formed the small price correction to the resistance level of 1.6100 in the short term. Or it will be the next descending trend line retest of 1.6180.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


Trading recommendations


The decrease shall be continued. The targets are 1.5950 and 1.5860.





Yen (JPY)


The dollar/yen strengthened yesterday at the Asian session amid the Japanese stock market the support growth and the American session beginning. The Japanese yen strengthened sharply after the US news that caused the US bonds treasuries sharp drop.


The price is finding the first support at 105.70, the next one is at 105.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 106.30, the next one is at 106.70.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


Trading recommendations


The potential target for the price decline is the support level of 105.20.





Franc (CHF)


The dollar exchange rate decreased with the stock quotations and the US bond yields after the US weak economic statistics.


The UK 10-year bond yields fell to 17-month low below 2 %.


The price is finding the first support at 0.9430, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9500, the next one is at 0.9560.


There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


Trading recommendations


We recommend the short positions with the first target at 0.9370. If the first target is overcome, the next target will be 0.9330.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


20.10.2014


Fundamental analysis


We observed different directed trends within the major currency pairs last week. Bulls cannot still develop the full correction movement on the EUR/USD - as soon as the quotations are above 28th figures, sellers come to the market and the US dollar recovers its lost ground. The US initial jobless claims release over the past week came out much better than traders had expected that also held bulls back. Against this background, the trading day on Friday ended with the quotations decrease by 0.2%.


The pair GBP/USD was under pressure at the European trading session amid the negative investors’ sentiment towards the UK lower inflationary pressure. At the moment the prices reached the level of 1.5940, and then we observed the pound position recovery. The US and UK bond yields significantly decreased in the second half of the day on Friday that led to the short positions pound closing. Against this backdrop, the trading day ended in the "green field" within the pair pound/dollar on Friday.


Traders chose the upward direction for the USD/JPY on Friday. The high volatility is still observed on the credit markets and the stock market volatility puts traders to a standstill. Against this backdrop, the dollar/yen was growing towards the 107th figure during the day.





Technical analysis


Euro (EUR)


General overview


The euro/dollar spent the Friday session in a limited range and closed the session almost with the opening prices. The eurozone data gave the market some disappointment because the latest September inflationary evaluation confirmed the earlier price pressure growth results only 0.3% y/y that keeps the deflationary risks, and the foreign trade block information pointed to the August export and import drop.


The price is finding the first support at 1.2730, the next one is at 1.2670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2790, the next one is at 1.2850.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is decreasing.


Trading recommendations


The downward bounce potential target is 1.2670. We believe the pair to return to a decrease soon.





Pound (GBP)


General overview


The British pound continued its growth against the US dollar that started on the Wednesday trading and then started a consolidation. The UK economic news was not published and the increased pound interest could be based on the fact that the Bank of England tightening policy is opposed to the ECB and the Bank of Japan policies that can be our guidance in an uncertainty period.


The bulls were able to break through above the strong resistance level of 1.6030. The level breakthrough occurred on the high volume, but the price growth was not long term, soon the pair consolidated.


The price is finding the first support at 1.6030, the next one is at 1.5950. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6100, the next one is at 1.6180.


The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.


The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidation.


Trading recommendations


The downward trend line retest is more likely to lead to the price support levels 1.6030, 1.5950 return.





Yen (JPY)


General overview


The Japanese yen was trading as the euro in the narrow corridor against the US dollar and finished the Friday trades with a decrease. The Bank of Japan Mr. Kuroda’s speech affected the pair movement who stated that the Japanese yen decrease was positive for Japan as well as the increased market yields treasuries.


The support level of 105.70 testing led to the short-term consolidation with the subsequent price growth. The intermediate growth target was the resistance level of 106.30. Having overcome this level, the pair tested the level of 106.70.


The price is finding the first support at 106.30, the next one is at 105.70. The price is finding the first resistance at 106.70, the next one is at 107.10.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


Trading recommendations


The pair is correcting upwards now. The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 106.30, 105.70 soon.





Franc (CHF)


General overview


The franc stabilized against the US dollar amid our expectations that the US economy is ahead of the Europian and Japan economy.


The US data publication showed that the initial jobless claims fell to 264K versus 287K the previous week.


The price is finding the first support at 0.9430, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9500, the next one is at 0.9560.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horisontal movement and form a “Dead cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


Trading recommendations


We advise to short with the first target - 0.9370. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9330.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


21.10.2014


Fundamental analysis


The US dollar was able to strengthen significantly its position against its main competitors the last week - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed at around 85.20. The pair EUR/USD was moderately decreasing during the day amid the US positive macroeconomic data. The consumer sentiment index by the University of Michigan established multi-year highs in October that dispels our skepticism about the US economic prospects. Traders tried to start a technical correction for the euro/dollar, but so far their efforts were unsuccessful. As soon as we see an increase above the 28th figure – bears immediately come to the market and the euro once again returns to the range of 1.2605 -1.2805.


The pair GBP/USD enjoyed moderate demand during the day amid the short positions’ closing. The US and UK 10-year bond yields declined significantly to a level of 0.7 bp that in turn is a bullish signal for the pound sterling. We observed a technical rebound amid the US positive data about the consumer confidence by the Institute of Michigan. Then at the moment the pound quotes reached the level of 1.6180.


The pair USD/JPY strengthened significantly amid the global equity markets demand. After considerable sales on the American stock market – the bullish sentiment increased. The US positive data by Institute of Michigan supported the dollar. The consumer sentiment index showed a record growth to the level of 86.4 in October that confirms the US economic strength against its main competitors.





Technical analysis


Euro (EUR)


General overview


The part of the previous achievements was lost that was caused by the frustration tendency to the peripheral countries bond yield growth, the euro sales were caused by the ECB members’ statements and the US economic data that pointed out that the regenerative processes in the world's largest economy are still ongoing.


We have noticed a consolidation above the support level of 1.2730 for a long time. While trading volumes are still at the lows.


The price is finding the first support at 1.2790, the next one is at 1.2730. The price is finding the resistance at 1.2850.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.


Trading recommendations


The approach to the level of 1.2790 may lead to the price rebound upward. The potential rebound target is the resistance level of 1.2850.





Pound (GBP)


General overview


The pound got some pressure yesterday after the Bank of England Chief Economist E. Haldane speech where he said that he was "more gloomy" about Britain’s economic forecast than before and the UK interest rates should stay lower for longer without jeopardizing the inflation target which is 2%.


The upward correction volatility is gradually decreasing. The price is likely to rebound downwards.


The price is finding the first support at 1.6100, the next one is at 1.6030. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6180, the next one is at 1.6270.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


Trading recommendations


The downward bounce potential target is 1.5870.





Yen (JPY)


General overview


The Japanese yen fell amid the increasing risk appetite in view of the US stock market optimism and the yield "Treasuries." slight increase. The political invariability of the Japanese regulator, aiming at achieving the inflation target of 2% could support the dollar.


Buyers were able to break through above the downward trend line of 106.70. The trend breakthrough was amid the low volumes and at the same time it was the signal to change the downward trend.


The price is finding the first support at 106.30, the next one is at 105.70. The price is finding the first resistance at 106.70, the next one is at 107.10.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.


Trading recommendations


The trend goes downward. We expect the level of 106.30 testing soon.





Franc (CHF)


General overview


The franc has risen against the US dollar weakening. However, later the dollar reduced its losses against the major currencies amid the expectations that the US economy is ahead of the European and Japan economy.


The price is finding the first support at 0.9430, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9500, the next one is at 0.9560.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.


Trading recommendations


We advise to short with the first target - 0.9370. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9330.





*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


22.10.2014


Fundamental analysis


The US dollar was under pressure-the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day at around 84.95 at the beginning of the week. There was not any important macroeconomic statistics this day. Traders are again trying to implement the corrective movement within the US dollar after the last US Fed protocol where it was pointed out the US dollar revaluation negative effects.


Against this background the main dollar competitors were in demand during the day, but now it is still too early to talk about the 100% dollar correction. The last two weeks we noticed how bulls tried to disperse the quotes up several times and faced strong pressure from the bears’ part. It should also be noted the negative trend on the commodity market – the CRB index finished the trading day in the "red zone" that is a positive factor for the dollar and will provide little support to it.


We do not expect the important macroeconomic statistics. We should emphasize the real estate sales’ release in the US secondary market. The real estate market releases which we received at the end of last week point out to a demand recovery after the August recession and in this regard we can expect the data release at the forecasted medians level.





Technical analysis


Euro (EUR)


General overview


The euro fell at the end of the yesterday trades. Earlier the single European currency has strengthened against the US dollar. However, the euro achievements were not impressive as its price has remained in the consolidation range and the euro has not shown any new local highs.


The long-awaited beginning of the ECB asset purchase program was treated by investors with almost complete indifference and had no effect on the market.


Buyers can not break through above the strong resistance level of 1.2850 the second week. The long consolidation pointed to the clear price down rebound.


The price is finding the first support at 1.2730, the next one is at 1.2670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2790, the next one is at 1.2850.


There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.


Trading recommendations


The potential rebound target is the support level of 1.2670. We do not exclude the level of 1.2600 retest.





Pound (GBP)


General overview


The sterling had lost some positions. Before this the pound was in the great demand. The pound has grown more than any other majors against the US dollar. It is possible that these investors’ sentiment was amid the fact that the "cable" is now the most profitable currency and in the conditions of uncertainty is an attractive asset for the shorts.


The downward trend line is broken upwards. It is a good signal for the further mid-term bearish trend reversal. However, the only thing that indicates the weakening buyers’ force is volumes.


The price is finding the first support at 1.6100, the next one is at 1.6030. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6180, the next one is at 1.6270.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


Trading recommendations


The level of 1.6180 retest may lead to the price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the levels of support 1.6100, 1.6030.





Yen (JPY)


General overview


The Japanese yen strengthened against the dollar at the beginning of the trading day and declined at the second half of the day. As a result, the session within the pair USD/JPY was closed neutrally - on the opening prices. The causes of such a scenario could be events on the stock markets and the US market debts. The Nikkei index has risen nearly by 4.0% after reports that the Japan state pension investment fund plans to increase the share of Japanese equities in its portfolio to 25%, but was not supported by the events on the US and European stock markets, as, in general, by the "Treasuries ", profitability that fell slightly.


The price is finding the first support at 106.30, the next one is at 105.70. The price is finding the first resistance at 106.70, the next one is at 107.10.


There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is increasing.


Trading recommendations


The upward bounce potential target is 107.10.





Franc (CHF)


General overview


The frank is strengthening its position amid the general trend of the weakening dollar after the Sent Luis Fed President James Bullard said that the Fed should consider a possibility to delay the asset purchase program completion to counter the expected inflation reduction. Then the franc fell again.


The price is finding the first support at 0.9430, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9500, the next one is at 0.9560.


There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


Trading recommendations


We advise to short with the first target - 0.9370. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9330.





*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


23.10.2014


Fundamental analysis


We still observe a flat within the major pairs in the Forex market. The lower inflationary pressure in the world's largest economies caught by surprise traders and now the asset managers cannot identify the most "weak link." On October 8 Federal Reserve pointed to the dollar revaluation the US consumer price index negative impact and the investors rushed to close “longs” within the US dollar. However, as we see, traders cannot still find the dollar alternative and on this background we have recently seen a side tendency. The trading day did not bring important macroeconomic statistics. The United States pleased investors with positive release sales in the secondary market.


The sales rose by 2.4% in September that indicates the confident consumer demand. It is also necessary to emphasize the American stock market rapid growth - Apple reported the record profits for the 3rd quarter of this year that with the US positive macroeconomic statistics cheered bulls up to open “longs”. Against this positive background, the US dollar was able to strengthen against its major competitors.





Technical analysis


Euro (EUR)


General overview


The euro will be under the external information influence, first of all under the US inflation data. If the data shows the US price pressure growth, as, in general it is expected that will increase our confidence in the ECB and the Fed policy growth that will add pressure on the euro.


The EUR/USD has broken through the lower uptrend boundary of 1.2730 that means the three-week correction turn in the long term.


The price is finding the first support at 1.2600, the next one is at 1.2500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2670, the next one is at 1.2730.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


Trading recommendations


We suppose the pair consolidates first. The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.2600, 1.2500.





Pound (GBP)


General overview


The US good statistics was one of the main pound weakening reason. The technical factors influenced the pound as well. The growth was caused by the strong resistance level where the pair pound/dollar is now.


The Bank of England last meeting minutes will be published where they discussed the monetary policy future.


The pair GBP/USD is waiting the fundamental data. We expect one of the two important levels break through: 1.6180 and 1.6030 amid these data.


The price is finding the first support at 1.6030, the next one is at 1.5950. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6100, the next one is at 1.6180.


There is weak sell signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward one. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is decreasing.


Trading recommendations


We expect the level of 1.6030 break that will open the way to 1.5870.





Yen (JPY)


General overview


The yen sales were caused by the price decrease on the Japan stock market where the Nikkei has lost about 2% .Then the technical factors and the US estate market sales strong data returned the pair growth - as a result the US dollar leveled the loss and got a slight "profit".


The Japanese economic data showed a further deficit growth. The pair USD/JPY intends to break the strong resistance level of 107.10 for the third time. The previous two strong resistance level of 107.35 tests were followed by the price rebound down.


The price is finding the first support at 107.10, the next one is at 106.70. The price is finding the first resistance at 107.60, the next one is at 108.00.


The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.


Trading recommendations


After the trend line 107.10 breakthrough upwards the way to the resistance level of 107.60 is opened.



Franc (CHF)


General overview


The Swiss franc retreated against the general dollar rise. The Switzerland trade balance data showed the $ 2.45 billion surplus. However, both exports (3.3%) and imports (7.4%) have fallen.


The pair USD/CHF rebounded to 0.9535 and stabilized near the daytime highs.


The price is finding the first support at 0.9500, the next one is at 0.9430. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9560, the next one is at 0.9620.


There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


Trading recommendations


We advise to long with the first target - 0.9560. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9620.





*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


24.10.2014


Fundamental analysis


The US dollar was able to strengthen its position against its major competitors despite the many investors’ expectations. The pair EUR/USD lost 0.4% at the end of the trading amid the CPI moderately positive data in the United States. The September inflation remained unchanged at the level of year -on -year 1.7% that is 0.1% better than the forecasted medians. We observed the US 10-year bond yields sharp increase against this background.


The GBP/USD also remained under pressure during the day amid the Bank of England last meeting negative reports. There are still only two monetary control representatives – Weal and McCafferty vote for a rate increase. The other IFA members hold more conservative views. The Bank of England is now focused on its main trading partner (the euro) problems, and therefore it expects the UK economic growth slowdown.


The Japan trade balance poor statistics for September cheered bulls up within the pair USD/JPY for opening "longs". The September negative balance again increased due to the strong imports growth. Japanese exporters began to feel much better with the national currency devaluation in September. The US moderately positive statistics on inflation has increased the dollar demand.





Technical analysis


Euro (EUR)


General overview


The single European currency has survived another day of pressure against the US dollar. In early trading the dollar was strengthening amid the remained sentiments caused by information that the ECB intends to expand the range of assets purchases, then the European currency came under pressure after the US economic data release that confirm the inflation increase.


The rising channel lower boundary 1.2730 breakthrough led to the euro three-week upward correction reversal against the dollar.


The price is finding the first support at 1.2600, the next one is at 1.2500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2670, the next one is at 1.2730.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


Trading recommendations


We suppose the pair will go to 1.2600 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.2500.





Pound (GBP)


General overview


The pound came also under pressure against the dollar. The first reason for investors’ frustration is the Bank of England last meeting “minutes”. The "minutes" pointed to the British regulator tendency to soft policies and pushed the pair GBP/USD down.


The sellers managed to break below the support level of 1.6100 amid the fundamental factors.


The volumes indicate the clear bears’ weakening. But as the trade is still in the downtrend line direction - we cannot talk about the upward direction.


The price is finding the first support at 1.6030, the next one is at 1.5950. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6100, the next one is at 1.6180.


The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.


The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.


Trading recommendations


The potential decrease target is the support level of 1.5870.





Yen (JPY)


General overview


The Japanese yen also fell against the dollar yesterday. The US information about consumer inflation was the main factor influencing the pair USD/JPY. Before this report publication the trades were in a narrow side range, and after the report publication the yen was in the sales wave and fixed its losses at the end of the trading day.


The buyers came to the strong resistance level of 108.00 at the low volumes that has earlier bounced the price down. The consolidation below the strong resistance can cause a slight price decrease in the short term.


The price is finding the first support at 107.10, the next one is at 106.70. The price is finding the first resistance at 107.60, the next one is at 108.00.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.


Trading recommendations


The price is likely to go to the downward trend line 107.10. The potential growth target is the resistance level of 108.50.





Franc (CHF)


General overview


The Swiss franc fell against the dollar while the dollar index reached the one-week high after the US unexpected inflation increase in September.


The price is finding the first support at 0.9500, the next one is at 0.9430. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9560, the next one is at 0.9620.


There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.


Trading recommendations


We advise to long with the first target - 0.9560. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9620.





*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


28.10.2014


Fundamental analysis


The US dollar weakened slightly against most of its competitors - the dollar index basket finished trading at around 85.71. The pair EUR/USD enjoyed a moderate demand. The traders ignored the positive data about the US new buildings sales in September that indicates traders are set to the euro/dollar upward movement. The last week commodities again showed a decline, but this factor did not support the US dollar demand.


The UK GDP release for the 3rd quarter came in line with the traders’ expectations - 0.7%. Traders close short positions within the pair GBP/USD, as the negative data have already been laid in quotes - we have seen the pound sales for the last three days. At the moment the British currency quotes reached the level of 1.6095 and then we noted some technical rebound.


The pair USD/JPY was under pressure, it was not able to finish the trading on a positive note. After the "bull rally" that we saw last week, traders partially took profits on "longs". Nevertheless, the bulls’ position is strong enough the world's leading stock markets ended the day with the quotations steady growth and with the US positive macroeconomic statistics will support the dollar demand in the short term.





Technical analysis


Euro (EUR)


General overview


The euro is under pressure after the EU representative Katainen said that Germany's potential growth rate was "too low". While earlier the ECB Governing Council member Noyer said that France and Italy were lagging behind with their reforms and the eurozone economy that has already completed reforms was growing.


The three-day consolidation is at the support level of 1.2600 and has led to the price rebound upwards. The buyers corrected the euro to the strong resistance level of 1.2730 amid the low volumes.


The price is finding the first support at 1.2670, the next one is at 1.2600. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2730, the next one is at 1.2790.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is increasing.


Trading recommendations


The downward bounce potential target is 1.2600.





Pound (GBP)


General overview


The pound rose after the UK GDP data. However, the market is not in a hurry to fall into euphoria. Taking into consideration that the eurozone economic recovery is progressing very slowly and concerns about the US and China slowdown we can assume that the Bank of England will delay the first rate increase until the second half of 2015. It was earlier expected that the rates will be raised in February. The UK weak salary growth and absence of inflationary pressure makes the period of monetary policy easing by the Bank of England much longer.


There was a short-term price rebound from the support level of 1.6030 that allowed the buyers to correct the price to the downward trend line of 1.6100.


The corrective GBP growth is not supported by the trading volumes.


The price is finding the first support at 1.6100, the next one is at 1.6030. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6180, the next one is at 1.6270.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.


Trading recommendations


The bears need to break below 1.6100 for a steady decrease. The way to the mark 1.6030 will be opened after this breakthrough.





Yen (JPY)


General overview


The yen rose for the first time for seven days on Friday against the US dollar after the reports that New York's physician was hospitalized with the Ebola diagnosis. The messages about the deadly disease in the US largest city provoked the safe assets demand growth.


The US dollar growth against the Japanese yen has stopped above the resistance level of 108.00 and then the pair fell.


The price is finding the first support at 107.60, the next one is at 107.10. The price is finding the resistance at 108.50.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


Trading recommendations


We expect the 107.10 line break that will open the way to 108.00, further then towards 108.50.





Franc (CHF)


General overview


The franc partially compensated for the losses. The dollar has reduced its first weekly growth for the last three weeks against the basket of currencies on fears that the Ebola virus can affect the economy in the run-up to the Federal Reserve meeting next week.


The price is finding the first support at 0.9430, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9500, the next one is at 0.9560.


There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.


Trading recommendations


We advise to long with the first target - 0.9560. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9620.





*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


29.10.2014


Fundamental analysis


The US dollar was under pressure - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished trading at around 85.49. Despite the mixed news the pair EUR / USD finished the trading day in the "green zone". The October release by the IFO Institute came out worse than traders had expected, at the level of 103.2, showing a minimum value since December 2012. According to the press release the German economy is experiencing serious difficulties because of the world geopolitical tensions. The report about the changes in M3 money supply has been showing an upward trend for 4 months in a row in the euro area which is a positive factor for inflation. The ECB loose monetary policy is beginning to give the first results, but to talk about the CPI growth is now too early. However, traders opened "longs" to the single European currency, based on downward correction development after the US Federal Reserve meeting.


The pair GBP/USD was in demand amid the profit-taking continuation on short positions and the UK positive macroeconomic statistics. According to the British industry confederation the October retail sales release is slightly better than market participants had expected that has been welcomed by traders amid the economic growth slowdown in the third quarter. However, it should be noted that the UK short and long term bond yields extension is a negative factor for the British currency that is now revalued.


Traders continued to take profits on long positions in the pair USD/JPY. A similar action was also observed on the world's leading stock exchanges. During the day the pair dollar/yen has moderately declined and during the quotation it reached the mark of 107.60. There was no Japan and the US important macroeconomic statistics publication and against this background investors regained namely technical factors.





Technical analysis


Euro (EUR)


General overview


The euro was treated differently at the trades - the single currency initially declined against the dollar, and then again grew, but as a result recorded a small "profit". The Germany’s economic data, represented by the German Ifo institute, affected the euro but the US reports supported the single European currency.


The trading slightly changed according to this instrument. The euro bulls continue to push the price up to the nearest resistance level of 1.2790 amid the reduced volumes.


The testing level for its strength will be during the fundamental data release.


The price is finding the first support at 1.2730, the next one is at 1.2670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2790, the next one is at 1.2850.


There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is increasing.


Trading recommendations


The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.2670, 1.2600.





Pound (GBP)


General overview


The pair GBP/USD, grew up at the yesterday's trading amid the weak activity. There was no reason for the pound sales and the UK economic statistics did not give any neutral information, the weak US economic data supported both the “cable” and the euro.


The corrective pound growth is low against the US dollar. Buyers has broken through and fixed above the downward trend line of 1.6100 at the low volumes.


The price is finding the first support at 1.6100, the next one is at 1.6030. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6180, the next one is at 1.6270.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.


Trading recommendations


If the price fixates below the support level of 1.6030, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.5950.





Yen (JPY)


General overview


We expect important events for this week that reflected on the yesterday's pair dollar/yen trading. In this case, besides the FOMC meeting results, investors are waiting for more solutions with the similar Japan’s meetings (where the monetary policy destiny is decided) and in a given situation investors decided to correct position and fix some profits that led to the dollar decline against the Japanese yen.


The trade is in the upward direction within the Japanese yen. The corrective price decline for three days is observed without the volume support.


The price is finding the first support at 107.60, the next one is at 107.10. The price is finding the resistance at 108.50.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


Trading recommendations


The upward bounce potential target are 108.00, 108.50.





Franc (CHF)


General overview


The market is expecting the key week events – the US FOMC meeting that ends today explains the lack of activity. The low dollar sales were a topic of the US news, pointing to the US uneven housing market recovery and the economic activity slowdown in Texas. The property purchase signed contracts rose in the secondary market in September after the August decline, but was significantly lower than it was expected.


The price is finding the first support at 0.9430, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9500, the next one is at 0.9560.


The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.


The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.


Trading recommendations


We advise to short with the first target - 0.9430. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9370.





*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


30.10.2014


Fundamental analysis


We observe a bearish sentiment within the US dollar - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished trading at around 85.36. The pair EUR / USD has been on a positive note for three trading days in a row. The pair sharply fell on yesterday trades. Traders' attention was focused on the US release. A report on the consumer durable goods orders came out worse than the forecasted medians in September, showing a 1.3% decline while we were observing the consumer confidence positive data by the Conference Board.


The pair GBP/USD enjoyed a moderate demand during the day amid the short positions opening within the US dollar along the entire market. The consumer confidence release by the Conference Board rose to 94.5 in October, showing multi-year highs amid the employment growth in the United States, thus freezing bulls’ enthusiasm within the British currency.


The bulls are returning to the equity markets that supports the pair USD/JPY demand. The US stock market is rapidly developing; the high-tech index Nasdaq is the growth leader that shows us the strong bullish trend. Against this background, even the US negative release on consumer durable goods orders could not spoil the bullish sentiment and after the quotations reduction to the mark of 107.70 we observed the pair strong demand and the position recovery. The pair sharply increased at the end of the yesterday trades.





Technical analysis


Euro (EUR)


General overview


The current sentiment on the single European currency can hardly be called positive, but the "bears" do not hurry to resume active operations.


We got the disappointing data from France – the consumer confidence in the second eurozone economy fell by one point in October this year. The French consumer confidence index dropped from 86 points to 85 points. The interviewed economists assumed that the rate would remain unchanged at the level of 86 points.


The pair euro/dollar came close to the downward trend line of 1.2730 and fell down.


The price is finding the first support at 1.2670, the next one is at 1.2600. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2730, the next one is at 1.2790.


There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.


Trading recommendations


If the price falls below the level of 1.2670 the downward movement will be continued.





Pound (GBP)


General overview


The pair GBP/USD tried to fall below 1.6100 amid the UK weak data and still remains there.


The mortgages approvals came weaker than it had expected from 61 267 to 62 250.


The money supply was also weaker than it had expected - at -0.7% vs. 0.5%, reflecting the lower price pressure.


The pair GBP/USD failed to update the last week maximum level of 1.6180.


The price is finding the first support at 1.6030, the next one is at 1.5950. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6100, the next one is at 1.6180.


There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is falling.


Trading recommendations


The level of 1.6100 testing may lead to the price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.6030, 1.5950.





Yen (JPY)


General overview


After the US consumer confidence data the dollar/yen is trading with 0.15% decrease. The world stock markets growth is still keeping - the Japanese Nikkei stock index rose by 0.74%.


The investors ignored the sharp industrial production recovery in Japan that rose by 2.7% in September in comparison with August against the expected 2.2% growth.


The USD/JPY was consolidating below the strong resistance level of 108.00 and then it grew. The pair closed the trades above the resistance level of 108.50.


The price is finding the first support at 108.00, the next one is at 107.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 108.50, the next one is at 109.00.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.


Trading recommendations


The pair can grow to the resistance level of 109.00. After breaking 109.00 the buyers may go to 109.50.





Franc (CHF)


General overview


The US currency raised at the end the yesterday trades. Earlier the franc rose against the dollar after the mixed US data.


The published report showed that the consumer confidence index rose to 94.5 pp in October against the expected level of 87 pp. The previous value was revised to 89.0 pp (from 86.0 pp).


The price is finding the first support at 0.9430, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9500, the next one is at 0.9560.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.


Trading recommendations


We advise to short with the first target - 0.9430. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9370.





*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


31.10.2014


Fundamental analysis


The day was marked by an increased volatility - traders delayed the two-day meeting announcement by the US Federal Reserve. The monetary regulator announced the QE-3 program completion as it was expected.


The Fed repeated a familiar phrase to all investors about the need to keep rates low for an "extended period of time". The short-term inflationary forecast remains negative because of the lower energy price and other factors. The monetary regulator did not explain what these factors could be. It is quite possibly be the dollar revaluation; however, the monetary authorities have not answered.


The labor market progress was not reviewed - the Fed pointed to the steady employment growth that in future can contribute to the rapid rates increase. As traders did not hear the phrase that monetary authorities are concerned about the "strong dollar" - they hurried back to the market and began to buy the US currency.





Technical analysis


Euro (EUR)


General overview


The dollar perspectives are improving besides the weak euro zone economic indicators that triggered expectations for the additional monetary policy easing measures by the ECB, thereby putting pressure on the pair EUR/USD. The dollar rose to the current session beginning after the US Federal Reserve expressed optimism about the employment situation. The optimistic perspectives assessment surprised the market that led to the short positions closure within the dollar.


The price is finding the first support at 1.2600, the next one is at 1.2500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2670, the next one is at 1.2730.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


Trading recommendations


The downward movement is to be continued. The pair may go to 1.2500 soon.





Pound (GBP)


General overview


The UK will present the housing price index for October.


The pound tried to test the support level of 1.5950 after the disappointing British statistics publication. The approved mortgages applications showed the approvals reduced to 61.267K against 62.250K that confirms the real estate sector strength. As for the money supply data, the index fell by 0.7% against the forecasted 0.5% growth, indicating the weak price pressures.


There was a rapid price rebound down from the downward trend line of 1.6180 acting as an inclined resistance line. Due to the active pound decrease against the US dollar, sellers were able to break through and consolidate below the strong support level of 1.6030.


The price is finding the first support at 1.5950, the next one is at 1.5870. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6030, the next one is at 1.6100.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


Trading recommendations


The price is going down. We expect the level of 1.5870 testing soon.





Yen (JPY)


General overview


The Japanese yen continued to fall against the dollar. The US dollar can influence the exchange rate dynamics. Japan will publish the consumer inflation and the unemployment data for September.


The buyers break through the strong resistance level of 108.50 upwards. The level breakthrough occurred amid the low volumes; however, the mark of 109.00 has been already overcome.


The trading on the inside daily chart is still in the uplink channel direction. Therefore, the bullish trend is still relevant, despite such small growth volumes.


The price is finding the first support at 109.00, the next one is at 108.50. The price is finding the resistance at 109.50.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.


Trading recommendations


The buyers need to break above 109.50 for a steady growth.





Franc (CHF)


General overview


The pair dollar/franc will be trading in the higher range supported by a positive attitude towards the dollar, the Swiss currency sales with the declining pair franc/yen and the soft monetary policy by the Swiss National Bank. The October economic barometer KOF will be released in Switzerland.


The price is finding the first support at 0.9560, the next one is at 0.9500. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9680.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


Trading recommendations


We advise to long with the first target - 0.9620. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9680.





*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


03.11.2014


Fundamental analysis


The US dollar continued to strengthen against its major competitors - the dollar index basket finished the trading day at around 86.15. The pair EUR/USD has lost 0.2% amid the US positive statistics and the Euro zone negative data. The US GDP preliminary data for the 3rd quarter came out better than the forecasted medians, showing an increase to the level of 3.5%. We have observed a strong economic growth that supports the dollar demand for the second quarter in a row. The Spain and Germany inflation releases disappointed traders with their weak data - the major economies inflation is decreasing once again amid the lower oil quotations and the weak consumer demand. The euro zone CPI decline jeopardizes the possible euro rise.


The GBP/USD was also under pressure amid the US positive macroeconomic data. The strong GDP data for the third quarter amid the Britain economic growth slowdown cheered bears to open short positions. At the moment the pound quotes reached the mark of 1.5950 and then traders began taking profits on the "shorts" and the British pound was able to consolidate. It is worth noting the US and the UK bond yields expansion indicates the further bearish sentiment predominance within the GBP/USD.


The bulls felt quite at ease within the USD/JPY. The US positive economic data supported the dollar demand as well as on corporate bonds demand in the US stock market. The dollar/yen enjoyed steady demand against this background and at the moment quotes reached the level of 112.30.





Technical analysis


Euro (EUR)


General overview


The euro has looked less vulnerable and after differently directional trade fixed some losses against the dollar, but they were less extensive. The US economic data that did not please traders supported the euro and the euro zone economic statistics showed quite positive indicators’ results.


The sellers broke through the strong support level of 1.2600 amid the high volatility news last week. The level short-term test was followed by a slight price rebound downwards.


The price is finding the first support at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2600, the next one is at 1.2670.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


Trading recommendations


We expect the 1.2500 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 1.2400.





Pound (GBP)


General overview


The British pound had different directed trades against the dollar and ended the session with its decline less significant than the day before. The sentiments, formed under the Fed's statement influence supported the pair pound/dollar sale and then the US GDP data caused the pound sale.


The support level of 1.6030 breakthrough was followed by a reverse test. This level became a resistance.


The price is finding the first support at 1.5950, the next one is at 1.5870. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6030, the next one is at 1.6100.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


Trading recommendations


After the trend line 1.5950 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.5870 will be opened.





Yen(JPY)


General overview


The pair dollar/yen demonstrate its strong growth. The reason was the Bank of Japan decision at the meeting dedicated to the monetary policy issues. The Japanese regulator unexpectedly announced additional stimulating measures and plans for annual asset purchase increase to stimulate inflation - up to 80 bln. yen from the previously planned volume of 60-70 trillion yen.


The market responded to the news with a high volatility with the US dollar increase against the Japanese yen.


There was the strong resistance level breakthrough of 112.00 amid the fundamental factor.


The price is finding the first support at 112.00, the next one is at 111.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 112.50, the next one is at 113.00.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.


Trading recommendations


The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 112.50, 113.00.





Franc (CHF)


General overview


The pair dollar/franc was consolidating after it has reached the three week high of 0.9650. The KOF Economic Barometer index for October (99.8 forecast of 98.2) that exceeded our expectations supported the franc. The potential pair decrease is restricted by the market positive attitude towards the dollar and the loose monetary policy by the Swiss National Bank.


The price is finding the first support at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9560. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9680, the next one is at 0.9750.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


Trading recommendations


We advise to long with the first target - 0.9680. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.





*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


04.11.2014


Fundamental analysis


The previous week ended in the dollar favor in all spheres. The US dollar gave a powerful "fort" against the yen that was less strong. The dollar grew against the euro and showed a neutral result against the pound. The market was excited by Japan reports where the Central Bank unexpectedly increased its incentive program which provoked the strong dollar sales against the yen at the end of the last week. The EU largest economic data that continue to disappoint us helped to resume the dollar growth against the euro.


The pair pound/dollar spent trading in the different directional consolidation and finished the dispute on the opening prices as there was no disappointed pound news and the US economic indicators were uneven, although most of them showed a positive release.


The beginning of the week contains a lot of important US economic information, but the main theme will be the October employment labor report and the information about the number of work places in the ADP private sector.


Our expectations are associated with a good dynamics that can point out to the continued high level of workplaces in the United States and it can support the US dollar according to the general rule "buy the rumor". However, the European news is able to set the trading tone, because both the Eurozone and the UK influential European Central Banks will announce their decisions about the monetary policy perspectives on Thursday.





Technical analysis


Euro (EUR)


General overview


The attitude towards the euro has not changed - the single currency ended last week with the continued fall against the dollar. The weak economic data from the leading EU countries strengthened pressure on the euro in the early trading.


The sellers approached to the support level of 1.2500 amid the high volume. This level is the October minimum and it was broken through.


The strong support breakthrough points towards the bearish trend continuation. It is likely to expect the level of 1.2500 retest acting as resistance.


The price is finding the support at 1.2400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2600.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


Trading recommendations


The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.2400 soon.





Pound (GBP)


General overview


The British pound was stable against the US dollar. Obviously, the lack of the UK information and the fact that the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve policy are directed to one side cause the market reticence, moreover this week the British regulator will hold its next meeting dedicated to the monetary policy issues.


The British pound continues to uncertainly decline against the US dollar.


There was formed the downward channel where the pair is now. Until the price is not out of the channel limits, the downward trend remains in force.


The price is finding the first support at 1.5950, the next one is at 1.5870. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6030, the next one is at 1.6100.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


Trading recommendations


The potential decrease target is the support level of 1.5870.





Yen (JPY)


General overview


The Japanese yen was in the centre of attention. The yen fell against all of its competitors. The Bank of Japan last meeting decision to increase the quantitative easing volume caused the Japanese yen sales.


The US dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen. The price growth was supported by the trading volumes that formed a new high for the last two weeks.


The current price growth stopped at the mark of 113.80. It is likely that its correction can be in the short-term.


The price is finding the first support at 113.00, the next one is at 112.50. The price is finding the resistance at 114.20.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.


Trading recommendations


The approach to the levels of 112.50, 113.00 lead to a price rebound upwards.





Franc (CHF)


General overview


The frank continued to fall against the dollar after the euro. The dollar index reached a three-week high against a basket of major currencies after the preliminary data showed an unexpected increase in the US GDP in the third quarter, which confirmed the validity of the Federal Reserve's decision QE program is minimized and reflects the positive trends continuation in the world's largest economy.


The price is finding the first support at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9560. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9680, the next one is at 0.9750.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.


Trading recommendations


We advise to long with the first target - 0.9680. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.





*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


05.11.2014


Fundamental analysis


The trades opening gave us a hope that the beginning of the week would be in the volatile direction. The US dollar has sharply grown up against all of the major competitors after of the China manufacturing activity (PMI) indicator decrease to the 5- months low in October. However, the "bulls" call about the US dollar was developed only in the dollar dispute with the yen where the US dollar continued its growth formed by the Bank of Japan last Friday when it announced the easing program expansion. The trades against the European majors were reduced to the consolidation range and ended on the opening prices relative to the pound and with a very slight increase to the euro.


The news calendar did not please the investors with any important information volumes - the activity index data (PMI) in Europe and the US was published and showed a good result. However, the short-term optimism caused by the UK information, was suppressed by the US reports that the prices returned to their original positions. The data published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported the activity growth in the US manufacturing sector in October. The PMI index has risen to the level of 59.0 after 56.6 in September when it was expected to see a slowdown to 56.0.





Technical analysis


Euro (EUR)


General overview


The single European currency held the trading against the dollar in the side consolidation and was closed with a minor plus at the end of the day. The technical factors presented by the strong support levels where the euro/dollar fell supported the euro.


The bulls broke through the strong resistance level of 1.2500 upwards within the euro in the short term. At this moment the insignificant breakthrough is not supported by the trade volumes.


The price is finding the first support at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2600, the next one is at 1.2670.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


Trading recommendations


We advise to short with the first target – 1.2500. After fixing below the first target, the level 1.2400 will become the next one.





Pound (GBP)


General overview


The beginning of the week was negative for the British pound – the pound fell against the dollar under the sentiment pressure caused by the China news. However, the British currency leveled all the losses during the trades and even some time it rose against the dollar. The good “cable” sentiment provided the UK economic data that announced the indicator activity result in the UK manufacturing sector.


At the moment the price is between two important levels of 1.6030 - 1.5950. The breakthrough of one will be a good signal for the trade in the breakthrough direction.


The price is finding the first support at 1.5950, the next one is at 1.5870. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6030, the next one is at 1.6100.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


Trading recommendations


The trend is going downwards. After the trend line 1.5950 breakthrough the way to the support 1.5870 will be opened.





Yen (JPY)


General overview


The yen sales were continued, despite the fact that it was a day off because of the holiday in Japan on Monday. The BoJ statement on Friday expressed even more clearly the contrast between the Japan monetary policy and the US regulators that reinforced and supports the dollar growth impulse against the Japanese yen. In addition, the Japan Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) supports the yen sales about the fact that it plans to increase significantly the foreign stocks share in their portfolio, and it is a negative factor for the Japanese currency.


The growth rates fell in the area round the resistance level 114.20, of which at this time formed a downward pullback. At the same time the formed correction was also not supported by volumes.


The price is finding the first support at 113.00, the next one is at 112.50. The price is finding the resistance at 114.20.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.


Trading recommendations


The approach to the level of 112.50 leads to a price rebound upwards. The upward bounce potential target is 114.20.





Franc (CHF)


General overview


The franc continued to consolidate against the dollar amid the speculations that the solid economic data increases the probability of beginning interest rates process in the United States in the middle of next year. The pair slightly declined at the end of the trades.


The price is finding the first support at 0.9560, the next one is at 0.9500. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9680.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


Trading recommendations


We advise to long with the first target - 0.9620. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9680.





*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


06.11.2014


Fundamental analysis


The market has likely taken a wait–and-see position, expecting the end of the week when the reports about the European Central Bank decision and the US labor market situation will be published. In this regard, we again observed the weak lateral trade at the auction where the dollar was sold, taking profit on the previously open positions. It is clear that investors have taken a pause and quite reasonably considering the possible new targets emergence after these important events. In addition, one reason for the dollar sale could be the US economic news that showed a negative change.


The US news will issue the data that can provide guidelines on the labor market situation in October – the ADP report about the work places in the private sector is supposed to be seen with the 220 thousand increase after the earlier 213 thousand. This result will be the dollar support if it is confirmed by the forecasts. The October PMI data about the non business sector by the International Governance Institute (ISM) is less optimistic where the slowdown to 58.0 from 58.6 is possible while the overall index level is still high. It is quite possible that we will observe the range trading at the session today.





Technical analysis


Euro (EUR)


General overview


The attitude towards the euro has changed; the euro has grown against the dollar and other competitors. Perhaps, besides the investors’ desire to take profits on the short positions within the euro in advance of the ECB meeting closure, the EU economic data presented by the Eurozone prices dynamics report supported the euro. However, the European currency fell at the end of the trades.


Buyers have broken through the strong resistance level of 1.2500 upwards. The level breakthrough was amid the reduced volumes and price bounced down, breaking through the level backwards.


The price is finding the support at 1.2400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2600.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The MACD indicator is oversold. The price is decreasing.


Trading recommendations


The approach to the level of 1.2600 may lead to a price rebound down. However the price action does suggest that the potential rebound target is the support level of 1.2400.





Pound (GBP)


General overview


The British pound spent the day in the very narrow side corridor. The pair attempted to decrease, but returned to the opening prices. Obviously, this situation might be explained by the UK weak news and pending the Bank of England meeting release that will be published on Thursday.


The fifth consecutive day the British Pound is trading below the strong resistance level of 1.6030. The short-term tests are followed by the small prices rebound downwards to the support level of 1.5965.


The price is finding the first support at 1.5950, the next one is at 1.5870. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6030, the next one is at 1.6100.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


Trading recommendations


The nearest target remains the level of 1.6030. If successful, it is expected to fall to the level of 1.5950 and 1.5870.





Yen (JPY)


General overview


The dollar growth continued against the yen. The pair stopped in a no-man’s land. Earlier the Japanese yen also strengthened against the US dollar. In fact, in this case there was a profit taking on the important week events expectations. However, today the yen is again under pressure at the session caused by the Bank of Japan head H. Kuroda who made it clear about intentions to continue easing for the economy stimulation and, on the other hand, the reports about the Republicans winning the elections.


The formed consolidation at the level of 113.50 was followed by the price rebound upwards with the further local maximum price updating at the level of 114.60.


The local maximum updating allowed buyers to touch to the resistance level of 114.60.


The price is finding the first support at 113.50, the next one is at 112.60. The price is finding the resistance at 114.60.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.


Trading recommendations


We do not have targets upwards. The visible mark the price can bounce further is 114.60





Franc (CHF)


General overview


The dollar-franc closed the trades on the opening prices. Earlier the dollar fell against the Swiss franc as traders close positions in advance of the two main events this week: the ECB meeting today and the US employment report on Friday.


The price is finding the first support at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9560. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9680, the next one is at 0.9750.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.


Trading recommendations


We advise to long with the first target - 0.9680. Should that level break down, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.







*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.