"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


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  1. #41
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    11.09.2014


    Fundamental analysis


    The dollar strengthening stalled at the trading on Wednesday. Another side correction was formed and turned into a slight dollar decrease against European majors. However, early in the day the dollar still managed to test new high. Obviously, the interest decline to the dollar was based on the strong support as well as the UK economic and political news.


    The dollar retained a clear advantage in relations with the yen and closed the session with a plus. There were only few news from the U.S., in fact, the attention was attracted by the National Federation of Independent Business report pointed that the August small business owners optimism rose to 96.1 against 95.7 in July, while the forecasts were reduced to a growth to the level of 96.0 which had no effect on the market sentiment.


    The United States news set wasn’t rich in the important indicators content - the July wholesale trade inventories data will be published, as the forecasts suggest an increase by 0.5% m/m, after +0.3% m/m. However, the expectations in terms of the most July wholesale trade talking about the activity reducing to 0.2% m/m vs. +0.6% m/m previously which will reduce the growth stocks information gains if they are confirmed by the fact as it indicates to the residual increase due to the reduced demand.


    If we talk about the prospects, the correction may well be continued under the technical factors influence and a poor news flow in almost all regions. The only exception is the Britain where we expect for the important political events and therefore it could increase the dollar/pound volatility.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    The euro interest rose slightly during the session on Wednesday. The European currency has strengthened against the dollar and almost closed the previous day loss. Obviously, this fact can be related to the technical factors influence as economic and political background for the euro remains negative.


    The buyers were able to push the price to last week low - the resistance level of 1.2930. The price went up to this level on the background of the low volumes and the pair bounced downwards.


    In the absence of a fundamental factor today the trade may pass amid the low volatility. We expect the EUR/USD to consolidate below the current support level of 1.2930.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.2850, the next one is at 1.2790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2930, the next one is at 1.3000.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    The downward movement will be continued if there is a long-term consolidation below the level of 1.2930. The first target is the level 1.2850, the next one is 1.2790.





    Pound (GBP)


    The attempts to continue lowering the pound at Tuesday's session had a short term success. The British currency noted a new low against the dollar amid the same questions about the Scottish independence influence, still the pound recorded a very slight plus near the opening prices on the day. The sterling stayed afloat with the UK economic data support and the head of the Bank of England M.Karni’s statement.


    The pound downward movement was stopped at the intermediate support level of 1.6100. The two-day consolidation at the level led to the price bounce upwards and came to the resistance level of 1.6180.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.6100, the next one is at 1.6030. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6180, the next one is at 1.6270.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    We believe the consolidation will be above the support level of 1.6180.





    Yen (JPY)


    The yen continued to fall against the dollar in yesterday's trading and came to the new local minimum. The investors' opinion that the Bank of Japan may supplement the quantitative easing package is the driver for this pair. In addition, a support for the dollar against the yen was resumed by the U.S. "Treasuries" yield growth at the yesterday's session.


    The upper bound breakthrough was followed by the price short-term consolidation formation below the support level of 106.30.


    The price is finding the support at 106.70, the next one is at 106.30. The price is finding the resistance at 107.10.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    The potential growth target is the resistance level of 107.10.





    Franc (CHF)


    The Swiss franc resumed its decline after the recent gains. The dollar index rises on the speculation that this week economic data publication will give additional arguments to the Fed to raise the interest rates next year.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9330. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9430.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to long with the first target - 0.9430






  2. #42
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    12.09.2014


    Fundamental analysis


    In the news absence the euro/dollar was traded under the technical factors. Faced with resistance, the European currency fell slightly against the dollar. The Eurozone economic indicators were published by few posts, the France industrial production dynamics could not provide the euro support, as it showed the July dramatic slowdown.


    The British pound managed to recover after the new low against the dollar touching. The reason for a such events turn can be called the technical factors presented by a strong support that the pair cannot overcome almost three sessions, as well as the Scotland people views variability presented information, where, according to a new pull, where the most people are already on the Scotland separation opponents side. The UK economy statistics was not published and the political day component - the Parliament inflation hearing, didn’t cause the market reaction.


    The Japanese currency was the most vulnerable in the foreign exchange market. Obviously, the dollar sentiment, formed under the Fed and BoJ multi-directional monetary policy influence continues to support the dollar/yen. The additional buying interest was given by the observed USA government bond yields increase - the 10-year-old "Treasuries" have reached the highest level since the end of July.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    We expect the August Germany and France consumer price index final assessment publication, still no one waits for changes - 0.0% m/m, +0.8% y/y and 0.3% m/m, 0.3% y/y, respectively, that will not activate the market, unless we get unexpected news.


    The resistance level of 1.2935 retest was followed by the short-term consolidation. After that, there was the price bounce down amid the high volume. Then the pair came back to the level of 1.2930.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.2930, the next one is at 1.2850. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3000, the next one is at 1.3070.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The downward movement potential target is 1.2850. If the price grows it will get to 1.3000.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The BoE speeches reduced to the familiar rhetoric that the interest rate is likely to be raised no earlier than 2015. The UK news set has presented the most interesting information - the August RICS house price balance report showed the appraisers number reduction who expects the price growth in the short time, up to 40% from 48% previously.


    Based on the volume which was on the trades closing, the pound clearly intends to continue the correctional price growth up. In addition, it is worth noting the level of 1.6270 testing. The gap was closed.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.6180, the next one is at 1.6100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6270, the next one is at 1.6340.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    After the trend line 1.6270 breakthrough up the way to the resistance level of 1.6340 will be opened.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    There is no Japanese economy news for today so the yen continues to fall against the dollar and on the current trading, obviously amid the Japan stock market optimism wave, where the Nikkei has grown by almost 0.8%.


    The corrective price decrease to the level of 106.70 was fallowed by the price bounce upwards. However, judging by what amounts were used to the continued American dollar growth against the Japanese yen, it can't be called as the confident uptrend.


    The price is finding the support at 106.70, the next one is at 106.30. The price is finding the resistance at 107.10.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen – a horizontal. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The price is likely to go to the downward trend line 106.30. We believe it will continue growing.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The Swiss franc has corrected its fall against the dollar. We expect the initial jobless claims where the average forecast is reduced to 300,000. There also will be the August federal budget report (forecast - $ 129.00 billion.).


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9330, the next one is at 0.9270. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9430.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to long with the first target - 0.9370. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9430.






  3. #43
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    15.09.2014


    Fundamental analysis


    The dollar instruments multidirectional movement points to the fact that most of the players are waiting for the Fed meeting which will take place this week. Most of the dollar instruments continue to move in the dollar favor, but some major European pairs have stopped falling and are at the previously achieved levels at least. This situation may point to the dollar positions profit close.


    The American dollar slightly rose last week. The traders are waiting for the Fed rate increase in the mid-2015.


    The initial jobless claims release put some pressure on the dollar, but given the fact that we had the Labor Day the last week, the correction was negligible. It was expected that the claims number will be 300 thousands. The growth amounted to 11 thousand up to the 28 June maximum with 315 thousand claims. The market participants interpreted the data as weekly variations in terms of the labor market situation improving.


    The FOMC meeting will be held on September 16-17, during which as expected, the possible interest rates changes will be published. Since March of this year, the Fed says that rates will remain near zero levels for the considerable time after the quantitative easing program end in October this year.






    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    Recently, the dollar takes a strong position, but we need the truly high retail sales rate to meet the expectations for the monetary policy normalization in the early to mid-2015. The FOMC meeting will be held this week to confirm or refute these assumptions. Also this week, the ECB is launching its new target lending program and a strong demand will be bullish for the euro.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.2930, the next one is at 1.2850. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3000, the next one is at 1.3070.


    There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a «Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    After the trend line 1.2930 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.2850 will be opened. We do not exclude the level of 1.3000 retest.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The sterling found a strong support and was steady against the dollar after the BoE Chairman speech. In his speech, the Chairman presented the Bank's inflation report. The increased pro-independence popularity in recent polls caused some concerns and frightened traders which were forced to sell the pound. The Scottish independence referendum will be held on 18 September.


    Based on the volume which was on the trades closing, the pound clearly intends to continue the correctional price growth up. In addition, it is worth noting the level of 1.6270 testing. The gap was closed.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.6180, the next one is at 1.6100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6270, the next one is at 1.6340.


    There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    The potential growth target is the resistance level of 1.6340. In this case the gap will be closed. Then the downward trend may be continued.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The dollar continues to receive support through hopes for the Fed meeting on September 17 which is expected to gain an aggressive attitude and to change the strategy intent statements, in particular, in the commentary about the rates conservation at low levels for a long time.


    The price is finding the support at 107.10, the next one is at 106.70. The price is finding the resistance at 107.60.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The potential decrease targets are the support levels: 106.70, 106.30.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The Swiss franc has corrected its fall against the franc. The Franc corrected against the dollar.


    Earlier, the franc fell to the one-year low against the dollar and suffered losses against the euro after the Wall Street Journal announcement that the negative interest rates are one of the options for the Swiss National Bank.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9330, the next one is at 0.9270. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9430.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to long with the first target - 0.9370. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9430.






  4. #44
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    16.09.2014


    Fundamental analysis


    The American dollar has been growing for nine weeks, showing the longest rise in the last 17 years, due to the Federal Reserve interest rates changing in 2015 while the other major central banks have a more easy monetary policy.


    Even taking into account the fact that the last week the dollar did not show the strongest growth, it still was at the top the last three months. We can see the American currency growth potential, especially if this week the Fed surprises the market by the policy tightening. The dollar is supported by the United States positive economic data and the ECB's decision to cut the interest rates.


    The United States growth is higher than in the other most developed countries. In addition, the Fed is going to raise the rates, while the ECB and the Bank of Japan are still going to continue easing. Now more and more market participants expect the Fed interest rates rising in June 2015 and not in September as it was previously predicted.


    The ECB is expected to continue to take the necessary measures to hold the low interest rates for the long term which ultimately lead to a higher inflation. Against this background, a large and a long-term the euro downtrend is predicted towards the dollar parity.


    The EUR/USD grown a few as the market attitude to the euro improving result amid the industrial production data in the euro zone that have exceeded expectations. But the uptrend is limited by the European Central Bank super easy policy. The pair is consolidating.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The euro fell after the published data showed that the industrial production and the retail sales growth in China was slowed in August, adding fears over the world's largest economy slowdown.


    The support level of 1.2930 temporarily stopped the downward trend. Four days price consolidation above was a signal for the corrective movement upwards.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.2930, the next one is at 1.2850. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3000, the next one is at 1.3070.


    There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a «Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.3000. After breaking 1.3000 the buyers may go to 1.3070.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    As a part of the referendum in Scotland expectations the pound/dollar is likely to stay under a pressure, and the downward movement is likely to be continued regardless of its result. The larger correction development can start after a local minimum is formed.


    The pound’s target was the gap closing. Against the background of the high-volume the buyers were not only able to close the gap, but also came close to the strong resistance level of 1.6270.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.6180, the next one is at 1.6100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6270, the next one is at 1.6340.


    The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.


    The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The pair is close to the strong resistance 1.6270-1.6290. If the pair retests it we expect the consolidation.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The yen remained under pressure after the Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the bank was ready to ease the monetary policy or to use other measures, if the inflation rate reaches 2%.


    The buyers could update the last year maximum – the level of 105.50. The movement direction depends on the support level of 107.60 strengthing.


    The price is finding the support at 107.10, the next one is at 106.70. The price is finding the resistance at 107.60.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    We recommend longing the market after dips to the levels 106.60 and 106.30.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    As we know from the Swiss central bank statement, it is ready to defend the national currency rate. The country main regulator expressed readiness in the currency interventions holding because of the franc to the euro further strengthening prevention.


    The United States retail sales rose in August by 0.6%. The retail sales excluding cars sales increased by 0.3%.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9330, the next one is at 0.9270. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9430.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to long with the first target - 0.9370. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9430.






  5. #45
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    17.09.2014


    Fundamental analysis


    The Forex market week start was passed within the narrow ranges amid the important macroeconomic releases publication lack. The Dollar index basket (USDX) has been in the horizontal flat for the 5 consecutive trading days which clearly indicates the strong market driver's absence. The EUR/USD fell slightly after the July euro zone trade balance report publication. We observed the July trade surplus decrease despite the significant euro weakening.


    The GBP/USD is still not feeling confident amid the political crisis in the UK. The referendum in the Scotland on the secession from the United Kingdom will be held on Thursday 18 September and many traders are afraid to open the long pound positions in spite of the strong pound "oversold". The 10-year American and British bonds yields differential was widened in the “Treasuries”’ favor which is also the deterrent for the pound sterling strengthening.


    The USD/JPY was consolidated near the 107th figure. The bears attempted to develop the downward movement amid the negative United States industrial production release, but their attempts were unsuccessful. The August industrial production volume was decreased by 0.1% which is significantly worse than the forecasted medians assumed the growth rate of 0.4%. However, the bulls returned to the market and were able to regain some of the lost positions after the quotations decline which tells us about the uptrend strength.






    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The market participants do not hurry to make any significant moves before the Fed meeting outcome announcement. The traders expect that the Fed will announce, at least, the expected timeframe rate increase the next year.


    The pair EUR/USD is being consolidated below the strong resistance level of 1.3000. The buyers fell twice from the resistance level of 1.3000.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.2930, the next one is at 1.2850. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3000, the next one is at 1.3070.


    The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a «Golden Cross”.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    We expect the level of 1.3000 testing soon. If the pair doesn’t break it we expect the fall to 1.2930 and 1.2850





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The British pound remains under pressure in the run-up to the Scotland referendum, which will take place on 18 September. We should remember that the Scotland separation will lead to the pound collapse. And also may reduce short-term rates. At the same time, if the UK separation opponents win, the economic indicators will be in the centre of attention.


    The pair GBP/USD is trying to break the strong resistance level of 1.6270. The pound sterling corrective growth moved to the side consolidation.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.6270, the next one is at 1.6180. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6340, the next one is at 1.6440. The price is in the Cloud. The pair makes soft steps upwards trying to develop a correction.


    The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden Cross”.


    The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    The price is likely to go to the downward trend line 1.6030 if the news is negative.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The yen is still under some pressure in the run-up to the next FOMC meeting beginning; its results will help to determine the world's largest economy statement.


    The Economic Cooperation Organization and Development has lowered the world's largest economies growth forecasts. The GDP growth will be 2.1% against the prior forecast 2.6% this year in the US.


    The USD/JPY growth was stopped by the resistance level of 107.10. The correction dollar decrease is observed against the Japanese yen.


    The price is finding the support at 107.10, the next one is at 106.70. The price is finding the resistance at 107.60.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The Cloud is directed upwards.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The approach to the level of 106.70 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound target is the resistance level of 107.80.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The dollar/franc will be consolidated with a tendency to grow, getting support from the market participants’ positive attitude towards the dollar. The August import price index fall turned out to be stronger in Switzerland than it was expected (-1.2% y/y against the expected -1.0% y/y) that contributes to the pair growth.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9270, the next one is at 0.9210. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9330, the next one is at 0.9370.


    There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The cloud is still uprising.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to long with the first target - 0.9370. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9430.






  6. #46
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    18.09.2014


    Fundamental analysis


    The EUR/USD is still between 29th and 30th figures. The Germany business climate release from the ZEW institute could not cause the strong reaction on the market - the index was better than the forecasted medians, but we observe the final value decrease for 9 consecutive months.


    The similar euro area index showed the significant decrease which confirms the negative trend. The bond market also took the bears side - the10-year Treasuries American and German bonds yields differential is still expanding which is a positive factor for the dollar.


    The GBP/USD was under pressure - the CPI release showed the inflation rate reduction to 1.5% y/y which is the negative factor for the monetary policy tightening. However, after the United States producer price index publication the pound was able to regain the lost ground. The PPI report came out a little worse than the forecasted medians that cheered the bulls to open the long positions.


    The bears won the minimal victory on the USD/JPY in the dispute with the bulls. The BOJ head H. Kuroda confirmed that the yen weakening had not harmed the Japanese economy, however, he made it clear to the market that the exchange rates deviation from the economic fundamentals was extremely undesirable.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The dollar decline was due to a rather George Hilzenrata’s courageous statement for the Wall Street Journal about the fact that so expected the Fed's decision will not likely give any signals in rate increase and monetary policy change.


    A few traders have already revised their position, knowing that the Federal Reserve uncertainty about market rates will render pressure on the dollar.


    The corrective euro growth from the support level of 1.2930 did not approach the descending trend line of 1.3000. The pair consolidates above the support level of 1.2930.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.2930, the next one is at 1.2850. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3000, the next one is at 1.3070.


    The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a «Golden Cross”.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The level of 1.3000 false retest may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the level of support 1.2850.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The high pound/dollar volatility was caused by the uncertain situation surrounding the recent Scotland independence surveys results. Protests action broke out in Scotland because of the bias towards the referendum preparation.


    Buyers came up to the inclined resistance line at 1.6340 that acts as the lower edge of the downtrend channel.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.6270, the next one is at 1.6180. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6340, the next one is at 1.6440.


    The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement.


    The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.6440.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The Japanese monetary regulator again made clear to the market that the yen devaluation was not a threat to the economy. The US and Japan stock markets growth will support the dollar/yen demand – the high-technology index Nasdaq was again the growth leader, that provides a solid foundation for the bulls in the American market.


    The price is finding the support at 107.10, the next one is at 106.70. The price is finding the first resistance at 107.60, the next one is at 108.00.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    After the level of 108.00 breakthrough upward the way to the resistance 108.50 will be opened.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The Swiss franc strengthened against the dollar's decline. The Switzerland producers’ prices and the imported goods prices continued to decline in August. The Swiss central bank expects that the low inflation period will last a long time.


    Now the probable Fed interest rates rise by at least 25 bp at the September FOMC meeting the next year is 77% against 73% on 29 August.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9330, the next one is at 0.9270. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9430.


    The price is on the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen showa a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    There is a high probability that the pair will test 94th figure. Still the consumer inflation along with the fed's comments can directly change the situation.






  7. #47
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    19.09.2014


    Fundamental analysis


    The euro/dollar recovered a few its losses in yesterday's trading.The EUR/USD came under a wave of sales after the Federal Reserve meeting release. In general, the market participants have not received any surprises - still two FOMC members Plosser and Fisher vote for an earlier monetary policy tightening. All other participants insist on the maintaining low interest rates for an "extended period of time." The inflation forecast still remains moderately negative while the unemployment rate forecast turned into positive direction.


    The pound/dollar closed the last week gap. The GBP/USD is in demand against the positive employment release. The unemployment fell to the level of 6.2% in the UK, in addition we saw an average wage increase in July, that points to the positive CPI.


    The pair USD/JPY continued its upward movement. The Bank of Japan gives to speculators a "green light" and we observed the yen devaluation against the negative macroeconomic statistics. The US and the Japan stock market growth increases the dollar/yen demand.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The pair is under pressure from the investors’ positive attitude towards the American currency and the European Central Bank easy policy.


    There was a rebound from the downtrend line 1.2930 against the high volume based on the EUR/USD rates. The trend rebound was followed to the support level 1.2850. Then the pair returned to the level of 1.2030.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.2850, the next one is at 1.2790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2930, the next one is at 1.3000.


    There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    We believe the growth will be continued. The first target is the level 1.3000. We do not exclude the fall to 1.2850.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The published statistics showed the unemployment rate decrease by ILO to 6.2% against the expected 6.3%.


    The most important was the message that two representatives of the Fed committee again offered to raise the interest rates by 0.25% at the last meeting.


    The corrective pound growth was observed followed by the resistance level of 1.6340 breakthrough. The buyers came up to this level against the increased volumes backdrop.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.6340, the next one is at 1.6270. The price is finding the resistance at 1.6440.


    There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    The potential rebound target is the level of support 1.6100.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The yen continued to fall against the dollar. According to the FOMC meeting results that made us clear that the economy is growing at a moderate rate and the inflation is below the target level.


    The asset purchase program has been reduced to $15 billion and apparently it will be completed in October this year. The basic interest rate remained at level of 0.25%. We can observe the price increase without any signal to a correction.


    The price is finding the support at 107.10, the next one is at 106.70. The price is finding the first resistance at 107.60, the next one is at 108.00.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    The potential growth target is the resistance level of 109.00.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The dollar rose sharply against all its major counterparts after the Federal Reserve meeting. The FOMC updated the main macroeconomic indicators’ forecasts: GDP in 2014, 2.0% 2.2% 2.1% against 2.3% in June; GDP in 2015 2.6% 3.0%; 2.6% 2.9% in 2016; 2.3% 2.5% in 2017. The Fed does not expect to achieve the inflation target level at least until 2016. The USD/CHF remains in the same range.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9330, the next one is at 0.9270. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9430.


    The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement shows a downward movement and form a “Golden Cross”.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to long with the first target - 0.9370. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9430.






  8. #48
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    22.09.2014


    Fundamental analysis


    The EUR/USD was in demand against the published US negative macroeconomic statistics last week. The construction sector releases - the issued building permits volume and the new installation foundations number do not meet the forecasted median, despite the positive leading indicators growth. The Fed Chairman Janet Yellen points out that the US real estate sector is still experiencing some difficulties. Even the initial jobless claims decrease to the level of 280K was ignored by the market participants.


    The GBP/USD has shown an upward trend awaiting the Scotland referendum failure. Many traders decided to fix their short positions on the British currency against its major competitors expecting that the Scotland residents will reject the separation from the United Kingdom. Against this background the “cable" growth was observed along the entire market. Nevertheless, the pair fell again.


    The USD/JPY is achieving the higher results, despite the published Japan positive macroeconomic statistics and the US negative releases. The Japan Trade Balance showed the August negative balance reduction, but again we did not see the exports growth last month. Against this background, the pair dollar/yen quotes dropped to the level of 108.37, after that the bulls returned to the market and began to open "longs". The consolidation was observed after the weak reports publication on the US construction sector that only confirms the strong bullish trend.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    For the euro, as well as for most major USD pairs, the last week ended with the correction increase. The buyers are able to return back to the price for the level of 1.2930, which was break through against the high volume.


    The price correction growth was not supported by the trade volumes. Apparently, the level of 1.2930 retest led to the price downward bounce.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.2790, the next one is at 1.2730. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2850, the next one is at 1.2930.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The Cloud is descending.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    The downward bounce potential targets are 1.2790 and 1.2730.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The pound fell at the end of last week trading. Before this the pound rose to the two-week high against the US dollar and the two-year euro rise occurred due to the Scottish independence referendum preliminary results which showed that the Scots majority voted against the separation.


    The British pound is recovering after a two-month price decline. This time the buyers could to break above the resistance level and the downward trend line of 1.6440. The breakthrough occurred on the increased volume. At the end of the trading the pair decreased below the level of 1.6340.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.6270, the next one is at 1.6180. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6340, the next one is at 1.6440.


    There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    We suppose the pair will go to 1.6340 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.6440.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The American dollar continues to strengthen against the Japanese yen without any correction kickbacks. And despite the fact that the overall USD majors correlation is now aimed at the dollar decline.


    The support level of 108.50 was formed which will act as additional obstacle towards the possible price downwards correction.


    The price is finding the support at 108.50, the next one is at 108.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.00, the next one is at 109.40.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    The pair is going upwards. As long as the price is trading in the upward channel buyers remain strong. The bulls’ target is the level of 109.40.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The dollar/franc fell below 0.9330, as the SNB has decided yet to lower the interest rates. It did not lead to the Swiss franc demand and the pair rose to 0.9430 area.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9330. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9430.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price above in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement shows a downward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The Cloud is growing.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to long with the first target - 0.9430. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9500.






  9. #49
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    23.09.2014


    Fundamental analysis


    The American dollar has significantly strengthened its position against its main competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trades with the maximum levels for the last 4 years. Against the empty macroeconomic calendar the EUR/USD decreased after the last week correction growth. The traders actively sold the euro, expending the differential returns on the 10 –year American and the German state bonds. It should be noted that the short euro positions were observed along the entire market.


    As the old trading rule says «buy the rumor, sell the fact”. 55.3% of voters in the Scotland referendum opposed the independence and against this background we observed the GBP/USD long positions closing. Prior to the official results announcement the British currency voting quotes reached the level of 1.6523 at the moment, after which we observed a sharp pound rise and against this negative background the «cable» has lost 0.68%.


    The Japan continues to disappoint the traders by a negative macroeconomic statistics. This time we got the index activity weak report in all economic sectors which showed a reduction of 0.2% in July. This indicator decline has been observed for 2 months in a row that points to the service and the manufacturing difficulties. Against this negative background the bullish rally for the USD/JPY continued and at the moment the prices reached the level of 109.45. The last time the dollar rose so high in September 2008.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    Euro remains under pressure. The published German inflation data fulfilled the analysts' forecasts and it was completely ignored by the market. Thus, the producer price index fell by 0.1% m/m and 0.8% y/y in August.


    The level of 1.2930 retesting was followed by a price drop back below against the increased volume. The channel upper limit rebound allowed the sellers to break and consolidate below the support level of 1.2850.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.2790, the next one is at 1.2730. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2850, the next one is at 1.2930.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.2790 soon.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The pound rose after the Scotland referendum results which showed that the Scots do not want to separate from the UK. The pair then fell again.


    The corrective wave from 1.6440 was stopped by the descending trend line. Approach to the price trend line was followed by a deep test in an attempt to break above this resistance. However, the "buyers’ exploits" came to an end and the pair decreased to the level of 1.6340 area.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.6270, the next one is at 1.6180. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6340, the next one is at 1.6440.


    There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The price is likely to go to the downward trend line 1.6270.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The yen fell against the most currencies after the Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda said that the regulator would not hesitate to change the monetary policy if it was necessary.


    The American dollar is actively strengthened against the Japanese yen during the second month. The pair USD/JPY upward trend is moving in the rising channel direction and is actively supported by the trade volumes.


    The price is finding the support at 108.50, the next one is at 108.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.00, the next one is at 109.40.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The upward bounce potential target are 102.60, 102.75. We believe after this the growth will be continued.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The Swiss franc continued to consolidate against the comprehensive dollar rise. The dollar shows the longest growth period since Lyndon Johnson was a head of the White House and after the Federal Reserve made us clear that the unprecedented program for the economic stimulation is almost completed in the coming year.


    The dollar index has been rising for the 10th week in a row. This is the longest growth period since March 1967. For the last month the dollar rose in value by 3.1%.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9330. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9430.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price above in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement shows a downward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to long with the first target - 0.9430. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9500






  10. #50
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    24.09.2014


    Fundamental analysis


    The Forex market trading week started rather quietly. The consumer confidence weak release in the euro area, as well as the ECB governor Mario Draghi’s speech about the loose monetary policy that will be preserved for a "long time" activated the euro/dollar bears, but they were not able to pull them forwards.


    The US negative macroeconomic data also played its role. The August sales in the secondary housing market showed a decrease of 1.8% and this is the third release of a weak construction sector. The housing market is traditionally sensitive to changes in the economy and these reports are the first alarm bell for the GDP final release for the 3rd quarter.


    The pair GBP/USD was growing up against the EUR/GBP cross-rate reduction, as well as the negative sales release in the US secondary market. It should be noted that the quotations growth is restrained.


    Global stock markets overstock coupled with the US housing market weak statistics putting downward pressure on the pair USD/JPY. However, attempts to develop a corrective bearish movement were unsuccessful. The USD/JPY uptrend is still stable and very few factors can break it at the moment.






    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    In the opinion of the central bank governor, the risk balance will be shifted to the weaker growth side if it is necessary, the ECB is ready to take additional measures to stimulate the economy and avoid deflation.


    The pair EUR/USD will be consolidated at the support level of 1.2850. The euro/dollar trading is below the resistance level which last week was cut through against the increased volume.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.2850, the next one is at 1.2790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2930, the next one is at 1.3000.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The level of 1.2930 retest may lead to a price rebound down. The bears need to break below 1.2850 for a steady decrease.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The current GBP/USD pair rise happened for several reasons. In particular, the UK market participants expect the published the mortgage loan publication from BBA.


    The pair GBP/USD is corrected to a downward trend line of 1.6440. The fourth time, the pound intends to test the downward trend line of 1.6440.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.6340, the next one is at 1.6270. The price is finding the resistance at 1.6440.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The downward trend line 1.6440 retest is more likely to lead to the strong price support level of 1.6270.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The dollar/yen may continue to consolidate near the 109th figure. It is difficult to expect surprises from the US macroeconomic statistics in manufacturing sector according to PMI index. The Japan internal situation is negative.


    The pair USD/JPY is corrected to the rising trend line of 108.50. Partly consolidation below 109.00 led to the downward correction.


    The price is finding the support at 108.50, the next one is at 108.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.00, the next one is at 109.40.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The upward movement potential target is 109.40.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The franc continues to consolidate in the previous price range. The market is stable with the absence of important news. The dollar buying is still in demand. The US economy shows good results, so we should expect some movement from the Fed monetary policy.


    The pair continues to consolidate at the top of the growth wave.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9330. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9430, the next one is at 0.9500.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price above in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement shows a downward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    We may expect the fall towards 0.9340 further on we expect a growth to 0.9450 where the pair may stop.






  11. #51
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    25.09.2014


    Fundamental analysis


    The EUR/USD decreased at the trading day end. Before this the pair has completed a minimum quotation increase by 0.1%. Markit Economics has published a large number of France and the Germany releases. The France PMI as well as in the euro area also were released. It should be noted that in general, the data came out worse than the forecasted medians which confirms the economic growth slowdown in the European countries. Nevertheless, the traders ignored the negative statistics.


    The GBP/USD has also demonstrated a lateral trend. The EUR/GBP cross-rate quotations decrease and the US moderately negative statistics on the business activity index in the manufacturing sector supported the pound demand.


    The yen counterattack will not be long after the USD/JPY drop to 108.50/108.20, it is necessary to open long positions. The Japanese stock market closed the main session in the "red zone" that led to the dollar/yen sales. But then the bulls began to open "longs", based on the strong uptrend continuation. The US industrial sector PMI release was a little worse than the forecast, but the investors ignored these statistics.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The single currency remained under pressure after the latest data showed that the private sector business activity has grown slowly in September, raising expectations of additional stimulus by the European Central Bank.


    The EUR corrective increase to the level of 1.2905 was followed by a short-term bounce rate down. The price has continued to decline without volumes.


    The price is finding the support at 1.2730. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2850, the next one is at 1.2930.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    The pair can fall to the support level of 1.2790. After breaking 1.2790 the pair may go to 1.2730.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The sterling slightly fell down. Earlier the pound fully compensated its losses.


    Optimistic prospects for the Bank of England future actions give a support to the pound rate, as well as the political situation stabilization after the referendum on Scottish independence.


    The British pound tried to rise to the downward trend line of 1.6440. The short-term increase was followed by the lower volumes and the price was immediately falling down.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.6340, the next one is at 1.6270. The price is finding the resistance at 1.6440.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    We suppose the pair will go to 1.6340 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.6270, 1.6180.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The yen gained a support after the Prime Minister Abe reportedly said that the weak yen had both positive and negative consequences and he intended to monitor closely the weak yen impact to the regional economy, as well as small and medium enterprises.


    The sellers tried to break below the support level of 108.50. The short-term testing led to the price upwards rebound.


    The price is finding the support at 108.50, the next one is at 108.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.00, the next one is at 109.40.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level of 109.40.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The Swiss currency continues to lose its ground. The head of the Swiss National Bank, Jordan said the central bank would continue to defend the "threshold" franc to the euro. Meanwhile, the banker said that the franc slightly overrated and the regulator would take further action if it was necessary


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9330. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9430, the next one is at 0.9500.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price above in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to long with the target - 0.9500.






  12. #52
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    26.09.2014


    Fundamental analysis


    After a short falling the US dollar again is raised to new highs - the dollar index basket (USDX) has completed the trading day at 85.02. The main pair EUR/USD has fallen to the 28th figure after the extremely positive release publication for the US new home sales. In August the sales increased by a record 18%, that give us a good ground for a pessimism about the US economy prospects. The IFO business climate index in Germany showed the lowest level from February 2013 till September in Germany and against this negative background the bears began to reduce actively the euro/dollar.


    The GBP/USD was trying to consolidate above the 64th figure against the reducing cross-rate EUR/GBP, but the US positive macroeconomic data about the housing market do not give the bulls hope for success. The decline in the oil quotations only fueled the dollar demand and against this negative background the pound made a sharp drop back down.


    The USD/JPY was under pressure amid the Tokyo Stock Exchange low quotes in the early hours of the Asian trading session. However, the European traders’ arrival supported the dollar demand after the United States new home sales strong report publication, the dollar sharply raised up. It should be noted that the bullish sentiment was observed not only towards the American dollar, but also in the stock markets.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The European Central Bank president Mario Draghi promised to keep the soft policy until the Central Bank would not be able to raise the inflation to a certain optimal level by about 2 %.


    The US and Europe macroeconomic statistics demonstrate the difference in the regional growth prospects.


    The rebound from the downtrend line 1.2930 was followed by the euro active decrease against the American dollar. The breakthrough occurred at the level of 1.2790 on the low volumes.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.2730, the next one is at 1.2670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2790, the next one is at 1.2850.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The trend is directed down side. We expect the level of 1.2670 testing soon.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The British Pound remains under pressure, despite the attempts to recover. Meanwhile, the increase above 1.6440 can not be excluded against the empty calendar of British events. Therefore, the investors pay their attention to the American statistics which forms the course dynamics.


    The rates consolidation formed below the trend line at 1.6340 led to the downward price rebound. In the short term we expect the level of 1.6270 breakthrough, the lower boundary of the upward channel.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.6270, the next one is at 1.6180. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6340, the next one is at 1.6440.


    The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Dead cross”.


    The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    We expect the 1.6270 line break that will open the way to 1.6180.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The yen attempts to recover its losses. The US dollar rose slightly against the yen after Mr. Abe, the Japanese Prime Minister, aggressively commented the weaker yen negative impact to the regional economy. The US home sales recent disappointing data in the secondary market contributed to the recent correction.


    The buyers tested for strength the strong resistance level of 109.00. From this level it formed a downward correction. The corrective price decline was stopped by the rising trend line at 108.50.


    The price is finding the first support at 108.50, the next one is at 108.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.00, the next one is at 109.40.


    There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Golden cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 109.40, 110.00.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The Swiss franc fell against the dollar. The dollar had a surprisingly strong data about the state of the US housing market. In result the Fed raising interest rates will be likely increased in the nearest future.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9430, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9500, the next one is at 0.9560.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price above in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to long with the target - 0.9500. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9560.






  13. #53
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    29.09.2014


    Fundamental analysis


    The US dollar continued to strengthen against its major competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day at around 85.20. The EUR/USD set a new local minimum for the last 22 months - traders continue to sell off the euro against the ECB "cheap money" policy. The 10-year German state bonds profit abilities differential dropped back below 1% which confirms the deflationary sentiment presence in the Old World.


    The pound fell at the end of the last week. It is important to note that before this the GBP/USD has consolidated near the 63rd figure. Mark Carney’s comments were able to support the moderate pound demand– the Bank of England president stated that the time for the rate increase was getting closer and was delayed for a long time after the first increase that was critical to the UK real estate market.


    The USD/JPY has continued to develop a bullish trend despite the US negative macroeconomic data. The August orders for consumer durables decreased by 18.2%, indicating to a quite restrained private consumption in the third quarter. It should be noted that the US macroeconomic releases showed a mixed trend the last week and now we cannot speak about the strong economic growth, similar to that we saw in the second quarter this year.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The EUR/USD remains under the sellers’ pressure. Many investors have already achieved their goals, so the consolidation is possible from these levels. A further decrease is also possible, but it requires a strong driver. While the European Central Bank (ECB) does not apply more drastic measures, further reduction is delayed.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.2670, the next one is at 1.2600. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2730, the next one is at 1.2790.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    We recommend going short with the first target – 1.2670, the next one is 1.2600.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The GBP/USD fell at the end of the last week. Before this the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney made it clear that there was a high likelihood for raising interest rates in the foreseeable future that deterred from the further pound/dollar decrease and contributed to the pair recovery to 1.6340. Nevertheless, it should be noted that the prospects of interest rates rise will not have a supportive effect on the former British currency that should alert the bulls for it.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.6180, the next one is at 1.6100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6270, the next one is at 1.6340.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    The price is directed down. We advise to long positions with the first target – 1.6100, the next one is 1.6030.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The current exchange rate US Dollar rose to Japanese yen after the Japan Minister of Welfare speech, the government does not abandon the pension fund reform plans.


    The yen strengthened after the latest statement by the Japan Minister of Health regarding the lack of haste in the pension fund reforms, which could lead to the number of assets increase which would be possible to invest.


    The price is finding the first support at 109.00, the next one is at 108.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.40, the next one is at 110.00.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.


    Trading recommendations


    We recommend going long with the target – 110.00.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    After insignificant correction the franc continues to consolidate after the achieved fresh lows against the US dollar.


    The dollar reached a four-year high after Goldman Sachs Group Inc, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America Corp. announced further US dollar rise due to the possible Fed interest rates growth in the middle of the next year against the monetary policy preservation by major central banks.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9500, the next one is at 0.9430. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9560.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price above in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is rising.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to long with the target - 0.9560.




  14. #54
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    30.09.2014


    Fundamental analysis


    The main dollar competitors once again came under attack - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at around 85.63. The euro is consolidating. Before this the EUR/USD fell against the euro zone negative macroeconomic data and the US positive release in terms of the GDP growth. The Germany consumer confidence index showed the minimum value over the past 7 months in September, which is a negative factor for the inflation. The final data about the US economic growth for the 2nd quarter were revised upwards to the level of 4.6%, the last time we saw such a strong growth in the fourth quarter of 2011.


    The GBP/USD consolidated most of the day near the 63 figure, but in the midst of the American trading session also came under a sales wave against the dollar upward trend line. The Great Britain did not please the traders with the interesting reports this day and all market participants' attention was focused on the United States data. There was published moderately positive GDP figures.


    The CPI showed a 0.1% decrease the last month in Japan that cheered the bulls to open the long positions in the USD/JPY. The corporate bonds demand had the same positive impact on the bullish sentiment for the USD/JPY in Tokyo stock exchange.






    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The euro weakened by 0.1 % to 1.2670, before falling to nearly two-year low. The ECB meeting will take place on Thursday, after which we do not expect important news. The United States will publish an labor report on Friday, as it is expected, it will give the Fed an opportunity for the early interest rates hike.


    The euro/dollar is traded in the descending channel direction where the price has been trading for the second month in a row. The support level of 1.2730 was broken down. There are no trade obstacles for bears.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.2670, the next one is at 1.2600. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2730, the next one is at 1.2790.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The trend is a directed downwards. We expect the level of 1.2600 testing soon.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The pound remained under pressure. The Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said that the time for the interest rates rise was getting closer and also noted that the date had not yet specified as it depended on the economic data.


    There was the support level of 1.6270 breakthrough that confirms the downward trend which will now play the resistance role. Besides the breakthrough, the bears returned the price to the downward trend line, thus opening the way to the current month lows - the levels of 1.6100, 1.6030.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.6180, the next one is at 1.6100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6270, the next one is at 1.6340.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The upward bounce potential target is 1.6440.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The yen is again in decline amid the speculations that the Japanese government will continue to take up the measures along with the reforms to the Japan pension fund, whose total assets are $1.2 trillion.


    The increase volumes remain in the growth area. Consequently, the buyers remain dominant players in this trading instrument. Additionally, the trade is in the upward direction.


    The price is finding the first support at 109.00, the next one is at 108.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.40, the next one is at 110.00.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to long with the first target – 110.00.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The franc continued to fall after the euro. The dollar rose after the US statistics showed that the GDP increased by 4.6% in the second quarter which met forecasts and is higher than the preliminary estimates of 4.2%. The indicator is following the GDP decline by 2.1% in the previous quarter and shows the best result since mid-2009.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9500, the next one is at 0.9430. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9560.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to long with the target - 0.9560.






  15. #55
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    01.10.2014


    Fundamental analysis


    The first part of the week has passed quietly enough for the single European currency that has been decreasing. Spain and Germany have published the September inflation preliminary data. Both figures were better than the forecasted medians, but still there was no CPI increase. The euro exchange rate at the moment reached 1.2715, but the bulls did not find strength for something else. The US private expenses consumption release can be slightly better than the traders expect, which will support the demand for the dollar. The PCE index showed an increase by 0.1% in August which is a positive factor for the economic growth.


    The GBP/USD has showed a moderate increase by 0.15%. Nevertheless the pair fell down. There were no fundamental prerequisites for the British currency consolidation - M4 monetary aggregate still points out to the inflationary pressure fall which is a negative factor for the monetary policy tightening. The traders took profits on short positions, as a result we observed the moderate pound growth before the pair decreased.


    The sales at the biggest world stock exchange market have frozen the USD/JPY bulls’ enthusiasm. However, we have not observed the American currency strong sales that confirms a stable upward trend. The market participants remain positive about the dollar/yen and increase the "longs" on corrective dips. The US real personal consumption expenditure allowed the USD/JPY to close the trading day in the "green zone".






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The euro/dollar remains under pressure against the dollar position. The US consumption expenditure rose in August, supporting the optimistic forecasts for the American economy. The American two-year bond yield approached the maximum level by 0.6 % from May 2011.


    The price consolidated below the resistance level of 1.2730 and then it fell down to the support level of 1.2600.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.2600, the next one is at 1.2500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2670, the next one is at 1.2730.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    We believe the decrease will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.2500. We do not exclude the growth to 1.2730.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The British pound partly compensated its losses incurred earlier against the dollar after the UK positive economic data publication. The August consumer lending amounted to £0.898 billion that exceeded the forecasts, but turned out to be worse than the July values total 1.108 billion.


    The British pound is correcting upward at the low volumes. The price movement priority direction is a downtrend.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.6180, the next one is at 1.6100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6270, the next one is at 1.6340.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    After the trend line 1.6270 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.6180 will be opened.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The USD/JPY reached six-year maximum and continued its growth. One can hardly expect a significant dollar weakening in anticipation of the United States Friday employment report, the Wednesday Tankan report by the Bank of Japan and a decision on the EU interest rates that will be taken on Thursday.


    Previously, the buyers could break above the resistance level of 109.40, which acts as a support. The growth is not supported by the trade volume.


    The price is finding the first support at 109.40, the next one is at 109.00. The price is finding the resistance at 110.00.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.


    Trading recommendations


    We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 110.00.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    After a minor consolidation the dollar /frank sharply rose. The head of the Swiss National Bank Thomas Jordan said that the central bank would continue to defend the level of 1.20 francs per euro. Also, the bank would be ready to take immediate actions and to use the additional measures if it was necessary.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9560, the next one is at 0.9500. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9620.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to long with the target - 0.9560.






  16. #56
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    02.10.2014


    Fundamental analysis


    The US dollar ended the trading day with a steady growth against its main competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the day at 85.95. The EUR/USD was under attack after the euro area inflation release was published. According to the preliminary data, CPI decreased by 0.3% at an annual rate which again points out to the economic deflation. Against this negative background we observed the euro sales, and at the moment the price reached the level of 1.2600 and then traders started partly to take profits closing their "shorts". As the result we saw a technical rebound that was followed by the consolidation.


    The GBP/USD will be under pressure during the day amid the UK weak macroeconomic statistics. The negative payments balance has increased sharply in the second quarter confirming the existing problems in the UK economy. Against this background, the bears were able to push the price to 1.6180, but when American market participants appeared we observed a moderate demand for the pound against the US negative consumer confidence macroeconomic statistics. In September the Conference Board index showed a decline to the level of 86 p. It is worth noting that this figure is still above the 12-month average which is positive for the US dollar bulls.


    Despite the American and the Japanese stock market correction the USD/JPY is still in demand among traders. It is worth noting that we had strong sales of "black gold" and this factor has traditionally been a positive for the dollar. The Japan macroeconomic statistics continues to disappoint investors. The August industrial production fell by 1.5%, which confirms the export problems. Household expenditures show a significant reduction five months in a row which also negatively affects the economy. In this regard, the traders have no choice if only to buy the US dollar.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The euro fell by 0.11 %, losing 3.82 % in September, which has been the worst result for more than two years. Euro Area annual inflation rate fell to 0.3 percent in September from 0.4 percent in August.


    The downward trend, supported by trade volumes, is still relevant.


    There was a price fall at 1.2660 followed by a consolidation amid the EUR fundamental data (German Unemployment Change).




    The price is finding the first support at 1.2600, the next one is at 1.2500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2670, the next one is at 1.2730.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The price is likely to go to the downward trend line 1.2500.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The British pound continued its downward movement. The reason was the fundamental data high volatility (quarterly GDP and annual GDP). The statistics showed the payments balance reducing deficit in the third quarter.


    There was a price fall against the increased volume and the pair reached the support level of 1.6180. Here we can see the price consolidation.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.6180, the next one is at 1.6100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6270, the next one is at 1.6340.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    We believe the decrease will be continued now. The first target is the level of 1.6180. The way to the mark 1.6100 will be opened after this breakthrough.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The Japanese yen continues to lose ground against the dollar. However there was a price falling at the end of the trading day.


    The Bank of Japan will have a meeting the next week and it buys bonds in the amount from $60 trillion ($ 548 billion) to 70 trillion in order to fight the deflation. The Central Bank is trying in such a way to increase the inflation rate up to the annual 2%.


    At the moment, the buyers were able to consolidate above intermediate resistance level of 109.70.


    The price is finding the first support at 109.40, the next one is at 109.00. The price is finding the resistance at 110.00.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    The potential growth target is the resistance level of 110.00.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The Swiss franc did not compensate the losses deducted before. The US dollar rose amid the expectations to raise the Fed interest rates.


    The market participants predict a further dollar rise, if the US economic statistics points out to the possibility of an early interest rates rise by the US Federal Reserve.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9560, the next one is at 0.9500. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9620.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to long with the target - 0.9620.








  17. #57
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    03.10.2014


    Fundamental analysis


    We can observe a mixed trend in the foreign exchange market. The pair EUR/USD consolidated during the day near the 26th figure against the US mixed news. The ADP population employment index came out better than the forecast at 213 000. This level was higher than the annual average which can count on the positive Non-Farm release. However, the ISM manufacturing sector showed a reduction to 56.6% in September which once again confirms the economic growth slowdown in the 3rd quarter.


    The PMI manufacturing sector released by Markit Economics has been showing a decline for three months in a row. This year third quarter turned out to be the weakest for the manufacturing economic sector that finds its reflection in the final GDP release. The strong sales also had a negative impact on the pound at the London stock market.


    The USD/JPY was able to overcome the 110th figure, but the bulls could not hold on it. The dollar with the yen sharply decreased. Many traders hurried up to take profits, besides we have seen the sales continuation in the world's leading stock exchange. The investors’ escape from risky assets has traditionally supported the demand for the "safe-haven" yen.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    This week main event was the ECB meeting results announcement. All market participants' attention was focused on the press conference by the ECB President Mario Draghi.


    The latest CPI index release showed the inflationary pressure reduction in the euro area to 0.3% and now the investors are looking forward to the further measures being implemented, directed to prevent the deflation threat.


    It is planned the EUR/USD corrective growth rate. The bullish views are getting more popular.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.2600, the next one is at 1.2500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2670, the next one is at 1.2730.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    The level of 1.2730 retest may lead to the price rebound down. We do not exclude the fall to 1.2600. The way to the mark 1.2500 will be opened after this breakthrough.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The British pound is under pressure this week amid the UK weak macroeconomic statistics. The September PMI construction sector index can also be negative, due to lower activity in the mortgage market.


    The tone is negative in the market and the pair broke downwards the support level of 1.6180.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.6100, the next one is at 1.6030. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6180, the next one is at 1.6270.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    After the trend line 1.6100 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.6030 will be opened.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The US and Japan stock markets looks very bearish which is a negative factor for the pair. According to ADP, the change in the US private sector population employment amounted to 213K in September, against the expected 210K.


    The Markit manufacturing PMI amounted to 57.5 in September against the expected 58.5, and the ISM manufacturing PMI amounted to 56.6 in September against the expected 58.5.


    The USD/JPY decline is at the strong support level of 108.00.


    The price is finding the first support at 108.50, the next one is at 108.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.00, the next one is at 109.40.


    The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    The pair can grow to the resistance level of 109.40. After breaking 109.40 the buyers may go to 110.00.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The Swiss franc strengthened against the dollar. There are rumors about the Swiss National Bank intervention (SNB).


    In September 2011, the SNB set a lower limit for the EUR/CHF at the level of 1.2000 with a view to prevent excessive franc appreciation amid the strengthening economic crisis in the Eurozone.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9500, the next one is at 0.9430. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9560, the next one is at 0.9620.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to long with the target - 0.9560. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9620.






  18. #58
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    06.10.2014


    Fundamental analysis


    The euro finished the last week with the quotation decrease. The US dollar stopped its decline against its major competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) has finished the trading week above 85.65. The ECB's monetary policy meeting release publication was the main event for the pair EUR/USD. At the press conference, Mario Draghi said that the monetary control would begin the ABS assets purchases process worth up to $1 trillion euro in mid October. The short-term inflation forecasts were again lowered in the euro area which is a negative factor for the European economy. It is worth noting that we have not seen the EUR/USD strong sales. Traders took profits on short positions after the ECB president press conference.


    The pair GBP/USD has been traded for three days in a row in the "red zone". The positive data about the UK construction purchasing managers’ index for September has not helped the British currency- the index was better than the forecasted medians at the level of 64.2. The pound sterling was stabbed back after receiving the10-year bond yield from the bond market that fell to one-year low amid the Brent oil quotations fall. The US and UK bond yields differential has expanded once again.


    The dollar/yen has shown an upward movement at the end of the trading week.The pair USD/JPY remains under pressure amid sales on the world markets shares. Investors continue to escape from risky assets that increase the demand for the "safe haven" yen. Even the US positive macroeconomic statistics has not helped the bulls- the initial jobless claims fell to the level of 287 thousand last week which is a positive factor for the labor market data.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The euro has started to behave volatile after the European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi started the conference in Naples, Italy. The ECB left interest rates at the record low level, as many traders had expected. The refinancing rate was maintained at the level of 0.05% and the deposit rates remained unchanged at the level with minus of 0.2%.


    The euro sharply fell at the end of the trades. Earlier the trades were within the EUR/USD upward correction. Bulls have raised the price on the high volume, bringing it closer to the strong resistance level of 1.2740. The pair fell to a new low at the support level of 1. 2500.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2600, the next one is at 1.2670.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    We believe the decrease will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.2400.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The pound continued its decline and set a new three weeks low, despite the strong data about the Britain construction sector. The UK construction sector business activity index exceeded forecasts in September and increased up to 64.2, while it had expected the rise to 63.5. However, the pound fell after the Broadbent’s statement, the Bank of England representative that the UK is not still ready to raise the interest rates.


    The British pound continues to stay in the downward channel. The bears have broken the support level of 1.6030 and were fixed below this level.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5950, the next one is at 1.5870. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6030, the next one is at 1.6100.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    We expect the 1.5950 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 1.5870.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The Japanese yen continued its decline after its rise provoked by the Finance vice minister Nobuhide Minorikava stated that the weak currency was affected for the companies, forcing up energy costs.


    The Japanese yen strengthened against the dollar. Amid the high volumes sellers tried to break through the support level of 108.00. But such a breakthrough has not been successful and the price bounced upward.


    The price is finding the first support at 109.40, the next one is at 109.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 110.00, the next one is at 110.60.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    The potential decrease targets are the support levels: 109.00, 108.50. When the price comes to the level 108.50 it may consolidate.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The franc continues to decrease after the minor consolidation. The franc ended the last trading week with sharp decline, reaching new lows.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9560. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9680, the next one is at 0.9750.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to long to the target - 0.9750.






  19. #59
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    07.10.2014


    Fundamental analysis


    The majors began to win back their position against the dollar on Monday. The US dollar has strengthened its position against its main competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the last week at 86.65, the highest level since July 2010. The main event was the US labor market release.


    It should be noted that the key parameters are significantly better than the forecasted medians - the unemployment rate fell to 5.9% in September, the non-farm sector employment increased by 248 thousand. It should also be noted the trade balance report has come out better than the traders’ expectations. The positive macroeconomic data points out to the strong economic growth in the third quarter (3%) which has increased the US dollar and the American corporate bonds demand. Those who have written the US off from the accounts came out at the losing end.


    The week news is inferior to the last session, concerning the significant economic publications. The particular attention will be paid to the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes release. Investors will try to draw a conclusion about the US rate increase deadline. It is possible that the news weakness will possibly decrease the market activity and there will be observed a range trading tendency. However, we believe that the Fed is inclined to tighten the monetary policy, leaving priorities to the US dollar, especially after the last employment report about the rate hike within a very short timeframe not later than mid-2015.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The European currency rose at the beginning of the week. Earlier the euro was being sold off against the dollar amid the ECB members ’ “dovish statements”, their confidence about the Fed’s and the European regulator’s differently directed monetary policies as well as the Eurozone weak economic statistics that points out to the downward trend continuation.


    The euro looked very bearish, breaking the support level of 1.2600 last week. The level breakdown has occurred amid the increased volume. Then the pair bounced upward from the support level of 1.2500.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2600, the next one is at 1.2670.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    We expect a flat. The downward bounce potential targets are 1.2500, 1.2400.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The sterling tries to grow. The British pound was also under pressure from the US dollar last week and it is worth noting that the "cable" was sold more actively than the euro. Obviously, the investors started to doubt the fact that the Bank of England would start to tighten its policy in a short-term.


    The downward trend stopped at the level of 1.5950.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5950, the next one is at 1.5870. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6030, the next one is at 1.6100.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    The approach to the levels of 1.6050 or 1.6100 may lead to the price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the levels of support 1.5950, 1.5870.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The US dollar stopped its growth and fell against the yen. Earlier it marked the new yearly highs amid the Fed and BoJ monetary policies increase expectations and the Bank of Japan governor Mr. Kuroda's readiness to take the necessary measures to achieve the inflation target of 2%.


    The buyers have managed to return the price into the rising channel, breaking up the resistance level of 109.40. The breakthrough has occurred amid the high volume. Then the price decreased and tested the level of 109.00.


    The price is finding the first support at 109.00, the next one is at 108.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 109.40, the next one is at 110.00.


    The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    After consolidating above the level of 109.00 the price will bounce upward to the level of 110.00. After the level of 110.00 breakthrough upward the way to the resistance level of 110.60 will be opened.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The American dollar is decreasing, against which the Swiss currency begins to strengthen.The dollar index reached a 4-year high after the US solid labor market report earlier that confirmed the world's largest economy recovery continuation.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9560. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9680, the next one is at 0.9750.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to long with the first target - 0.9680. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.






  20. #60
    ValdisTF


    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    08.10.2014


    Fundamental analysis


    We will receive the Germany industrial production data for August with the European trading session opening. The industrial orders release pointed to the reducing strong production rate and in this connection we should expect the data release to be slightly worse than the forecasted medians. The US and German 10-year bond yield moderately declined on Monday, giving the bulls a little breath of fresh air. However, we do not expect the strong euro/dollar growth – the eurozone inflation expectations remain still low.


    Today traders pay a special attention to the UK industrial production report. Both the industrial orders reduction and the 3-months PMI index decline point to the data release that is worse than the consensus forecast.


    The pair dollar/yen corrected near the 109th figure amid the empty macroeconomic calendar and the current levels are good for the long positions opening for two reasons. Firstly the US dollar bullish trend is still in force amid the positive macroeconomic statistics. Secondly we expect the upward trend reinforcement on the US and Japan stock markets.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The single European currency has grown against the US dollar and started a consolidation. The technical levels have supported the euro/dollar and, in fact, the pair returned to its positions which were lost earlier.


    The Germany industrial orders sharply fell in August. The PMI industrial sector grew to the lifting area in September.


    The pair EUR/USD is correcting to the downward trend line of 1.2700.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.2600, the next one is at 1.2500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2670, the next one is at 1.2730.


    There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The approach to the support levels 1.2600 or 1.2500 may lead to the price rebound upward.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The British pound has grown against the dollar. The reason for such increased pound interest was the strong technical levels presented by the strong support as the UK news had no important messages.


    We expect the industrial production indices for August. According to the forecasts, there will be good results that can keep the pound interest at the high level. The pair GBP/USD is testing the resistance level of 1.6100.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.6030, the next one is at 1.5950. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6100, the next one is at 1.6180.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The downward bounce potential target is 1.5950.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The Japanese yen started to recover immediately before the next Bank of Japan meeting outcome.


    The Japan's economy continued to recover at a moderate temps; however, the definite manufacturing sector is due to the sales tax increase.


    The Bank of Japan has lowered the industrial output; the segment weakness is partially due to reserve structure changes.


    The pair USD/JPY is correcting to the strong support level of 108.00.


    The price is finding the first support at 108.00, the next one is at 107.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 108.50, the next one is at 109.40.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 109.00, 109.40.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The franc continues its consolidation after the minor correction near the reached lows against the US dollar. We expect the USA consumer credit volume data for August.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9560, the next one is at 0.9500. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9680.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to long with the first target - 0.9680. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.






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