"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


07.08.2014


Fundamental analysis


The pair EUR/USD is in the bears’ power on the background of the positive macroeconomic data from the United States. The ISM in the services sector came out much better than expected at around 58.7. It should be noted that the rate showed significant acceleration above the 12-month moving average in July. This release, together with the manufacturing sector data indicates a strong economic growth in the United States at the third quarter beginning.


The GBP/USD has a quite weak reaction to the strong report on the UK Services PMI. The bulls stormed the resistance level of 1.6881, but the attempts were unsuccessful. As soon as the sell-off in the cross-rate EUR/GBP traders allowed to finish the day on a positive note.


The battle between bulls and bears in the USD/JPY pair was won by the minimum on the background of the recent sales in the global stock markets which took down Japanese stock market. Even the positive macroeconomic statistics from the United States failed to reassure market participants to break through the 103rd figure.





Technical analysis


Euro (EUR)


General Overview


The European currency fell against the dollar, despite the fact that the economic indicators of June and July showed a positive trend compared with the previous period. The retail sales in the euro zone rose in June by 0.4% against the results of May and the data of the second month of spring have been revised upwards.


The single currency against the American dollar corrective gains proved not for a long time. A short-term price consolidation below the resistance level of 1.3430 to which the buyers have come on a heavy volume resulted in the downtrend continuation.


The sellers renewed the minimum of the last week at the level of 1.3385 and fixed below the current support level of 1.3360.


The price is finding the first support at 1.3360, the next one is at 1.3290. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3420, the next one is at 1.3480.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


Trading recommendations


If the price fixates below the support 1.3360, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.3300.





Pound (GBP)


General Overview


The British pound has shown a resilience trading and has grown against all its major opponents. However, his achievements with respect to the American "greenback" have been relatively modest, only 20 or so points, although the index of activity in the economy key area – the services recorded a solid growth despite the fact that no changes are expected. This fact supported the British currency.


We should not expect any growth activity, as investors are waiting when the Bank of England should say about the monetary policy prospects.


The price is finding the first support at 1.6770, the next one is at 1.6700. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6860, the next one is at 1.6900.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


Trading recommendations


The pair is planning to go upwards. The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.6900, 1.6950.





Yen (JPY)


General Overview


The dollar/yen that was rising sales at the first part of the yesterday's session returned to its original positions by the end of the day. The market risk aversion has increased amid the tensions escalating between Russia and Ukraine which is reflected in the stock markets and prompted a return to the yen which is a safe haven.


The American dollar corrective weakness against the Japanese yen was stopped at the support level of 102.23. Short-level tests were followed by the price rebound upwards. However, there was not any upward trend continuation, the buyers failed to raise the price above 102.70.


The price is finding the first support at 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 102.70.


There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.


Trading recommendations


The downward trend line 102.23 retest is more likely to lead to the consolidation. After that, the trend is expected to be continued upwards.





Frank (CHF)

General Overview


The dollar rose after the Institute for Supply Management said that its purchasing managers index in the services sector grew last month to three-year high 58.7 from 56.0 in June. Analysts had expected the index to reach 56.3 in July.


The price is finding the first support at 0.9060, the next one is at 0.9035. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9090, the next one is at 0.9130.


There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


Trading recommendations


We advise to long with the first target - 0.9130. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9170.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


11.08.2014


Fundamental analysis


The American currency continued to strengthen against its major competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the day at 81.52. The pair EUR/USD lost 0.15% at the end of last week due to negative Draghi’s comments. Mario Draghi said that inflation will remain at low levels for a long time and the lending companies rates remain weak for the economic growth recovery. The CPI decreased to the level of 0.4% in July.





Bank of England showed no surprise – the monetary policy will remain the same. However, after the meeting bears rushed into the market there was a decrease in the GBP/USD quotations. Traders understand that in the current environment a strong British currency against its major "trading partners" carries risks for the economy as a whole and in particular for the inflation and endanger the earlier-than-expected first increase in the discount rate. The positive macroeconomic data from the United States just added optimism to bears.





Technical analysis


Euro (EUR)


General Overview


The European Central Bank decision was in the range of forecasts - the Eurozone regulator has not announced any changes in the parameters of monetary instruments. M. Draghi’s press conference has not brought no surprises either.


The sellers failed to break below the support level of 1.3345 three times, from which the current price is corrected upward. It should be noted that last week approach to the support level of 1.3345 occurred against the background of high volume.


The price is finding the support at 1.3360, the next one is at 1.3280. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3420, the next one is at 1.3480.


There is a confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is growing.


Trading recommendations


The price is changing the course. We believe the price will grow. The first growth target is 1.3420, the next one 1.3480.





Pound (GBP)


General Overview


The pound also fell against the dollar, but unlike the euro it did not show no new lows. The last week main event was the BoE’s announcement for monetary policy prospects. The meeting did not bring surprises, everything was according to the forecasts. The Bank of England left interest rates unchanged at 0.5%, and fund the purchase of bonds in the amount of 375 billion pounds.


The price is finding the first support at 1.6770, the next one is at 1.6700. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6840, the next one is at 1.6900.


There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


Trading recommendations


We believe the price to continue falling. We expect it to reach 1.6700 soon where we expect a bounce upwards to 1.6840.





Yen (JPY)


General Overview


The pair got the support from a small increase Japanese stock market indices growth, they returned to their original positions that had provoked the fall of the American government bond yields. News from Europe could not have affected the instrument.


The price pullback to the resistance level of 102.25 is a good signal for the continuation of the downtrend. The bounce allowed sellers to test the strong support 101.75


The price is finding the first support at 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 102.70.


There is a confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


Trading recommendations


The price resumed the downward movement. The price will decline to 101.60 first.





Frank (CHF)


General Overview


The frank strengthened a bit its position in the growing demand for safe assets because of the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the east of Ukraine, and also after President Barack Obama authorized the point strikes on Islamist militants in Iraq, if they threaten American interests in the country.


The activity production index increased in July to 54.3 points, surpassing its long-term average value of 54.0, according to data prepared by Credit Suisse.


The price is finding the first support at 0.9030, the next one is at 0.8990. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9060, the next one is at 0.9090.


There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting downwards.


Trading recommendation


The trend has been changed. The price is heading downwards. The first target is 0.9030. Shall the price consolidate at that level it will go further down to 0.8990.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


12.08.2014


Fundamental analysis


The EUR/USD closed the trading day with the quotations growth on short positions profit taking. The macroeconomic statistics showed a mixed background - the German trade balance indicator came out worse than the forecasted medians while the France industrial production release gave the market a pleasant surprise, showing an increase to the level of 1.3%. The market was full of the euro short positions as traders fully played this technical oversold in the last days.


The UK trade balance negative report cheered the bears for opening the GBP/USD "shorts". The June deficit has increased which is directly related to the British pound strong rate against the dollar and the euro. Against this backdrop, investors dumped the pound.


The BoJ, at its next meeting, signaled to market participants about the Japanese manufacturer's hard times. This negative process impacts on the export process and directly affects the economic growth rate. However, the monetary regulator refused the possibility of short term stimulus volume increasing again. Against this background, we observed sales in the Japanese stock market and the USD/JPY in the first half of the day.





Technical analysis


Euro (EUR)


General overview


The euro grew slightly against the dollar. Probably after the marks test near the level of 1.3300/20 which the pair visited last time 9 months ago and therefore became the strong psychological support, some investors decided to close the euro short positions and take profit in a geopolitical situation tense. The euro area economy data which could impact the euro were not published besides the Germany trade surplus report that slightly disappointed the market as its result wasn’t good.


There is a confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is growing.


Trading recommendations


The 1.3460 and 1.3485 marks are important strong resistance. These marks retest is more likely to lead to the price bounce down and the bearish trend further continuation.





Pound (GBP)


General overview


If investors see that the BoE in no hurry with the monetary option strengthening the pound will continue falling. The pound may find a support after the employment reports that are going to be published this week, the forecasts suggest the labor market improvement and the unemployment decrease.


The UK GDP second estimate publication is likely to keep in force the previous results and, most likely, will not stimulate a volatility increase, unless we do not have deviations. The break of 1.6810 support was at high volume - that proves the sellers growing strength. In the future, we expect the weekly support level of 1.6710 - 1.6700 testing


The price is finding the first support at 1.6770, the next one is at 1.6700. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6840, the next one is at 1.6900.


There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


Trading recommendations


The weekly support level of 1.6710 - 1.6700 has kicked sellers upwards two times. This level retest is more likely to lead to a consolidation.





Yen (JPY)


General overview


The Japanese yen is still in multidirectional movements against the dollar and closed trading at opening prices. The pair was turned up under the pressure as the BoJ meeting results has not announced any changes and the Japan stock market collapse where the Nikkei fell by almost 3%. The "bulls" support for the dollar was seen during the American session when the States stock markets showed the opposite to the Japanese one sentiment - the indices have grown, the market debt price fell.


The price is finding the first support at 101.60, the next one is at 101.00. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.23, the next one is at 102.70.


There is a confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


Trading recommendations


We expect a short-term growth at the beginning of this week. The potential growth target is the strong resistance level of 102.60.





Franc (CHF)


General overview


The dollar/franc will be traded in the lower range, under the pressure from deteriorating relationship to the dollar and the market demand for the Swiss currency on the pair. The reduction potential is limited by the growing Swiss currency in the EUR/CHF and the Swiss National Bank soft monetary policy


The price is finding the first support at 0.9030, the next one is at 0.8990. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9060, the next one is at 0.9090.


There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting downwards.


Trading recommendations


We recommend the short positions with the first target - 0.9030. After consolidating below the first target, the next target will be the level of 0.8990.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


15.08.2014


Fundamental analysis


After several days of silence the Forex market showed a burst of volatility on major pairs. The EUR/USD bears still cannot take the support level of 1.3332 despite the negative macroeconomic statistics from the Eurozone. The main currency pair is still trading in the mid-range and market participants are saving effort to further the market down.


The GBP/USD fell after the USA macroeconomic publications. The UK unemployment dropped to 6.4%. The Bank of England inflation minutes began on a positive note - the monetary regulator increased its estimate of economic growth in 2014 and 2015. Mark Carney said that the Central Bank expected the wages reduction to 1.25% from 2.5%. It was also noticed that the strong pound limits export growth.


The Japan's GDP for the second quarter showed a decrease of 6.8%, which coincided with the expectations of market participants. The non-state sector consumption in Japan has decreased by 5%. The Bank of Japan noted in its last minutes that they expect the tax burden increasing negative effect weakening. This factor, combined with a growth in the world's leading stock markets supported the demand for pair.





Technical analysis


Euro (EUR)


General Overview


The single European currency showed a multidirectional movement against the dollar and finished the day with small losses. The latest statistics pressed the euro, the only thing that supported the pair was the news from the United States that showed a weak sales in the retail trade.


The second week in a row a strong support level of 1.3340 does not let sellers to come.


The support is at 1.3360. The resistance is at 1.3420.


There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is directed downwards and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is decreasing.


Trading recommendations


We expect a rebound, the potential target is the downtrend channel upper boundary 1.3390. The maximum growth target is a strong resistance level of 1.3430





Pound (GBP)


General Overview


The British pound was the main loser among all majors at yesterday's session. Sterling fell against the dollar, having lost more than 120 points. The cable fell because of the weak reports: the employment grew, but at the same time, salary growth leaves much to be desired - the average wage in the UK in April-June increased by only 0.6% instead of the expected 0.75%.


BoE’s statements poured "fuel to the fire", they say that the interest rates growth will largely depend on the acceleration of wage growth.


Sellers managed to break below the key support level 1.6710 - 1.6700. The downward trend is expected to be continued, but before that we are likely to see a short-term pullback to the resistance level 1.6700 - 1.6710.


The price is finding the first support at 1.6640, the next one is at 1.6570. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6700, the next one is at 1.6770.


There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed downwards. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD histogram is in a negative territory.


Trading recommendations


The pair tends to decrease. The potential target is 1.6640.





Yen (JPY)


General Overview


The Japanese yen fell against the dollar. The economic data showed a sharp drop in GDP in the second quarter, still the risk appetite growth on the stock markets in Japan and the United pressured the Japanese currency more. When the weak retail sales in the United States yen rose sharply, but could not keep the trend and very soon came back under pressure.


Negative GDP Japanese yen directly affected the dollar strengthening. Due to the growth of the dollar buyers were able to get out of the descending channel, breaking up the upper bound of 102.30.


The price is finding the first support at 102.23, the next one is at 101.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.60, the next one is at 102.60.


There is a confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are neutral. The downward movement will be until the price is below the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory.


Trading recommendations


We expect a rebound down. The potential target rebound is a strong support level of 101.60.


If the pair continues growing it will reach the marks 102.70, 103.00 in a short term.





Frank (CHF)


General Overview


Swiss Franc returned most of the ground it had lost the other day. The unexpectedly weak the USA retail sales pressured the dollar. In July, the main figure was 0.0% vs. 0.2% and 0.2% in June. The retail sales excluding autos rose 0.1% against 0.4%.


The price is finding the first support at 0.9060, the next one is at 0.9030. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9090, the next one is at 0.9130.


There is a confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting downwards.


Trading recommendations


We recommend short positions with the first target - 0.9030. The second target is the level 0.9000.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


18.08.2014


Fundamental analysis


The EUR/USD could not set a fresh low despite the negative France, Germany and the Eurozone GDP. Economic growth in Germany fell on the background of geopolitics which intervened in the German economy. However, market participants have ignored the weak releases, the euro/dollar managed to strengthen to 1.3407 against the Initial Jobless Claims growth in the United States. However, the bulls growth mostly was not strong enough in the second half of the American trading session, and the euro returned to the previous range.


After the "bear rally" the GBP/USD was within a narrow range. In the absence of important macroeconomic releases from the UK and the USA - sellers have decided to take a pause to evaluate the British currency medium-term downtrend prospects.


Moderate demand for risky assets gave little support the USD/JPY pair. However, the decline of the American dollar against its major counterparts along the entire market (USDX) cooled bulls. The machinery and equipment orders release which came out worse than the median forecast, having shown an increase to the level of 8.8%, instead of the expected 15.5%. This report is a leading industrial production indicator and as we see it is difficult to count on the strong growth of the Japanese industry.





Technical analysis


Euro (EUR)


General Overview


The euro/dollar behavior was unexpected enough last week. The Eurozone newsflow did not have anything interesting and has not made any impression on the market, at the same time the weak United States employment release caused a sharp euro growth.


The instrument was trading without any changes. Despite the fact that the main trend is bearish, sellers can not break below 1.3340 strong support level for a long time.


The support is at 1.3360. The resistance is at 1.3420.


There is a confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is directed downwards and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is growing.


Trading recommendations


It is possible that sellers will try again today to test the mark of 1.3340 strength. And if they break it, we expect a confident continuation of the bearish trend. The decrease potential is the mark 1.3280


Still we should not exclude and growth possibility. The pair looks like going to correct to 1.3450.





Pound (GBP)


General Overview


The British pound continued falling against the dollar. Obviously, the inflation report and M.Karni’s performance were the main drivers for the pair. After these events the market concluded that the key rate would remain low much longer than expected. To return some loss the pound could after the weak State's economy data release and due to technical levels which showed a strong support.


The second part of the previous week the pair spent in a consolidation at the support level 1.6675. The bounce upwards from this level was not supported by volumes. The current trend remains bearish.


The price is finding the first support at 1.6640, the next one is at 1.6570. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6700, the next one is at 1.6770.


There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed downwards. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD histogram is in a negative territory.


Trading recommendations


The level 1.6675 break will allow sellers to reach the support level located at the level of 1.6570.





Yen (JPY)


General Overview


The dollar/yen trading was marked by multi-directional maneuvers session and fell by the end of trading. The yen can get the support from optimism in the Japan stock market. We do not expect important news from Japan and the yen will remain under the influence of risk appetite and, as usual, the USA economy news.


The third week volumes have been shown a correctional growth rates weakening from the support level 101.75.


The price is finding the first support at 102.23, the next one is at 101.70. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.60, the next one is at 102.90.


There is a confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are turning down.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The indicator is descending.


Trading recommendations


The price bounced down. The correction has been preparing for several weeks it will be continued to 102.23 and 102.





Frank (CHF)


General Overview


The dollar weakened after the United States Labor Department reported that the number of initial jobless claims increased by 21,000 to 311,000 from a revised 290,000 the previous week.


The price is finding the first support at 0.9000, the next one is at 0.8970. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9030, the next one is at 0.9060.


There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen directed downwards. The Cloud is descending.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting downwards.


Trading recommendations


We recommend short position with the first target - 0.9000. After reaching the first target we believe the price to go deeper to 0.8985.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


19.08.2014


Fundamental analysis


The main competitors of the dollar could regain some lost ground last week. The EUR/USD used the moderately negative macroeconomic statistics from the United States and finished the day up 0.25%. The Michigan Institute consumer confidence came out worse than the forecasted median, at 79.2, showing the minimum value over the past 8 months.


It should be noted that the final index fell below 12-month moving average which may signal a slowdown in the American economy. The July retail sales release also confirms this factor. Nevertheless, the current situation in Europe is much more negative and think about the downtrend change is too early.


The GBP/USD is within a narrow range and even the weak consumer confidence release from the United States could not cheer the bulls to open long positions. Bears reliably keep the current level and this factor indicates a set of short positions by institutional investors, and in the near future is expected to be continued downward.


Investors take profits on long positions in the world's leading stock market which put pressure on the USD/JPY. The USA consumer confidence came out worse than market expectations that together with the yields fall on 10-year Treasuries have caused the dollar demand for.





Technical analysis


Euro (EUR)


General Overview


Euro fell against the dollar a bit the last trading day. Probably the traders’ sentiment that was formed after the euro area disappointing GDP data for has already been taken into consideration and short-term investors have used data from the United States to take profit. In addition, technical factors presented by a strong support could stimulate the closing of euro short positions.


Eight day consolidation on the historical support level 1.3360 which was formed 2013.11.07, was followed by the price rebound upwards.


The support is at 1.3360. The resistance is at 1.3420.


There is a confirmed and weak sell signal. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen is directed downwards and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The histogram is growing.


Trading recommendations


The resistance level of 1.3485 retest is more likely to lead to a short-term consolidation.





Pound (GBP)


General Overview


The British pound has been "trodden" in one place and closed against the dollar on the opening prices. Investors have not been impressed by the fact that the second GDP estimate for the 2nd quarter was revised upwards to 3.2% y/y from 3.1% y/y.


The price broke the level of 1.6710 at high volumes. After the support level break down the price shows a weak volatility.


The price is finding the first support at 1.6700, the next one is at 1.6640. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6770, the next one is at 1.6840.


There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are horizontal. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The indicator is growing.


Trading recommendations


We expect the resistance level of 1.6770 retest. After that the price will bounce down to continue the further bearish trend to 1.6640.





Yen (JPY)


General Overview


The dollar/yen is slowly growing up having finished the day with positive results. The reason for the buying was weak USA economy releases which caused the US government bonds growth which consequently reduced their profitability.


The buyers tested for strength the strong resistance level of 102.65 second time over the past three weeks. This mark is an insurmountable barrier which has been bounced buyers down for six months.


The price is finding the first support at 102.23, the next one is at 101.70. The price is finding the first resistance at 102.60, the next one is at 102.90.


There is a confirmed and weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are horizontal. The Cloud is neutral.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The indicator is descending.


Trading recommendations


To continue the uptrend the bulls need to update the maximum of the previous month - 103.08. In this case, the price is expected to go to 103.90 - 104.00





Frank (CHF)


General Overview


Index assessment of the economic situation over the last year has grown to seven compared to the first quarter (5). The consumers' opinion about a successful time for large purchases has been improved, that is proved by the corresponding index increase from 1 in the previous quarter to 8. Nevertheless, the Swiss noted the deterioration of its financial position for the last time during the second quarter which resulted as the reduction of the corresponding index to -7 from the previous value -5.


The price is finding the first support at 0.9030, the next one is at 0.9000. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9060, the next one is at 0.9090.


There is a confirmed and strong sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen directed downwards. The Cloud is descending.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting downwards.


Trading recommendations


We still recommend going short. The mark 0 9030 is the first goal. After overcoming the first target the price can go to 0.9000.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


21.08.2014


Fundamental analysis


The American dollar has significantly strengthened its position against majors - the dollar basket index (USDX) updated the current year maximum values and ended the trading day at around 81.87. The positive macroeconomic data from the United States on the construction sector and inflation cheered the bears to open the short positions in the EUR/USD. The released building permits and new foundations showed a significant increase in July which is a positive factor for the American economy. The inflation release came out at a forecasts median, at around 2% y/y, which also fits to the strong economic growth scenario.


The GBP/USD came under a sales wave again, on the background of the negative inflation report. The CPI came in at 1.6% y/y in July. The inflation has been below the target level of 2% for 7 consecutive months which may postpone the rate increase. Immediately after the inflation release publication the pound/dollar has fallen by 78 p. setting a fresh minimum for the 4 last months.


The USD/JPY bullish trend is gaining strength. The global demand on the stock market, combined with the positive macroeconomic statistics from the United States supported the American currency against the Japanese yen.





Technical analysis


Euro (EUR)


General overview


The single European currency fell against the dollar at yesterday's trading. The pair broke the strong support level that restrained the price from a falling more than a week, and sat a new local minimum. The reason for the break down was the strong economic data from the United States, reported the housing sector improvement. It is worth noting that the initial pressure on the euro gave the data on its own economy.


The price is finding the first support at 1.3290, the next one is at 1.3230. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3360, the next one is at 1.3420.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


Trading recommendations


The potential downward movement target is the support level of 1.3230.





Pound (GBP)


General overview


The British currency resumed its decline and has fallen off against the dollar by more than 100 points. The inflation data have the initial pressure on the British sterling, and messages from the United States about the improvements in the housing market supported its sales. The UK inflation fell more than expected in July, which could seriously shake the market participants’ confidence who are awaiting the rate growth.


On the background of the "fundamental data" the intermediate support level 1.6675 breakthrough was held with the high volume formation. The downward trend is still in force, the current price decline came to the descending channel 1.6600 lower bound.


The price is finding the first support at 1.6570, the next one is at 1.6500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6640, the next one is at 1.6700.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is going down.


Trading recommendations


The potential growth target is the resistance level of 1.6700.





Yen (JPY)


General overview


The Japanese yen also was among the dollar’s "victims". The USD/JPY quotations rose up on the United States economic data, and then their growth was sustained by the States stock market optimism. The economic data from Japan have shown large trade deficit in July, but noted an increase in exports which may be some encouraging factor.


The strong resistance level of 102.90 upward break only strengthens the buyer's intention to continue to trade upwards. However, it is worth noting the fact that such a strong growth was not supported by the trading volumes.


The price is finding the first support at 103.30, the next one is at 102.90. The price is finding the first resistance at 103.70, the next one is at 104.00.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


Trading recommendations


We believe the growth will be continued now. The target is the level of 104.00.





Frank (CHF)


General overview


The dollar continues to grow. It rose to 11-month high against the basket of the major currencies after the optimistic data on the United States housing sector have shown that the economic recovery is gaining momentum.


The price is finding the first support at 0.9090, the next one is at 0.9060. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9130, the next one is at 0.9170.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


Trading recommendations


We advise to long with the first target - 0.9130. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9170.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


22.08.2014


Fundamental analysis


The American currency accelerated its growth - the dollar basket index (USDX) finished trading day at around 82.24. The Federal Reserve "Minute" cheered bears to open short positions - the majority of management FOMC members believe that the downside inflation risks have been reduced and the global investment community would wait for the interest rates growth after the QE-3 is over.


The Bank of England has confused its tracks - these are the monetary control last meeting minutes. Mark Carney pointed to possible monetary policy negative effects rapid tightening last week, as well as to the "strong pound" negative role for the export. Two monetary policy committee representatives - Martin Weale and Ian McCafferty, voted for a rate growth to 0.25% on 20 August. However, the traders quite sluggish reacted to this event - in the moment GBP/USD reached the level of 1.6677, after which we saw again the British currency sale. The investors still look with skepticism on the pound and therefore the quotations short-term growth is used to increase short positions.


The USD/JPY is growing having gained 0.73%. The negative Japan July trade balance showed a growth that caused the greatest concern on the investors’ part. The Federal Reserve last meeting and its moderately positive minutes also supported the demand for the greenback.





Technical analysis


Euro (EUR)


General overview


After the FOMC meeting minutes publication the American dollar strengthened against the major currency pairs. The single currency has fallen by 65 points down. Then it tried to recover the losses.


The trading volumes remain in the increase area with small divergence signs. The pair is being traded in the direction of a narrow descending channel, to the upper bound of which at 1.3290 a corrective rates growth is observed.


The price is finding the support at 1.3230. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3290, the next one is at 1.3360.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


Trading recommendations


The price is likely to go to the downward trend line 1.3230.





Pound (GBP)


General overview


The British pound continues to lose positions against the dollar. And, despite the fact that the volume is gradually reduced down, the downward trend is still in force.


There was a short-term growth to the resistance level of 1.6640. The level retest was followed by a price rebound down. At the same time, the sellers managed to come close the downtrend channel 1.6570 lower bound.


The price is finding the first support at 1.6570, the next one is at 1.6500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6640, the next one is at 1.6700.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is fixing.


Trading recommendations


We believe the downward movement will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.6500.





Yen (JPY)


General overview


The American dollar strengthened significantly against the Japanese yen. The growth rates came to the historical resistance level of 104.00, from which there the rates have been rebounded down by 300 points four months. The price went up at lower volumes to the resistance level of 104.00. Apparently, the price consolidation will be continued. The retest is expected in a short term.


The price is finding the first support at 103.70, the next one is at 103.30. The price is finding the resistance at 104.00.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horisontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The histogram is growing.


Trading recommendations


The potential growth target is the resistance level of 104.00. We expect a consolidation now.





Frank (CHF)


General overview


The Swiss franc fell against the dollar general strengthening after the FOMC last meeting minutes publication. The FOMC minutes showed that the Fed still has no plans to raise the interest rates in the near future. The Fed will use the excess reserves as a tool for a change in the interest rate. There is an increasing division between the FOMC members how rapidly the situation on the labor market will be improved. The price could not fix above the level of 0.9130.


The price is finding the first support at 0.9090, the next one is at 0.9060. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9130, the next one is at 0.9170.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


Trading recommendations


We advise to long with the first target - 0.9130. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9170.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


26.08.2014


Fundamental analysis


The American currency continued to strengthen against its major competitors on Friday - the dollar index (USDX) finished the last week at 82.32. The EUR/USD lost 0.3% amid the USA Fed Chairman comments in Jackson Hole. Janet Yellen said that the continued faster-than-expected employment growth may lead to an earlier federal funds rate increase. It was enough for the bears to push the EUR/USD rate to 1.3320, where traders began to fix the profits. The pair EUR/USD continued to fall on Monday trading.


The GBP/USD was traded in a narrow range of 1.6560 -1.6600. The market participants took a break to evaluate the pound downward trend prospects which we have seen the last 7 trading weeks. Even the Federal Reserve Chief’s speech on economic symposium in Jackson Hole could not push traders to an active trading.


The USD/JPY continued to grow to new maximums after a small technical correction. The bulls have responded positively to the Janet Yellen’s statement about the monetary policy possible earlier than expected tightening. The American dollar was in demand and the price reached the level of 104.20, then investors decided to take some profits on long positions. The pair slightly fell on Monday.




Technical analysis


Euro (EUR)

General overview


The European Central Bank head supported the idea of the euro further weakening his statements. Draghi’s speech was "dovish". He said that the ECB June easing measures should spur the demand, a weaker euro would support the economy and the European regulator was ready to the policy further softening if necessary.


The price three-week consolidation above the strong support level of 1.3360 was followed by a confirmed breakthrough. The sellers managed not only to break below 1.3360, but also to consolidate under the resistance level of 1.3290. The price updated the current month minimums on the increased volume during the President Draghi’s speech.


The price is finding the support at 1.3170. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3230, the next one is at 1.3290.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is fixing.


Trading recommendations


The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.3170 soon.





Pound(GBP)


General overview


The British pound was steady against the dollar and closed the session almost at opening prices. There were not any thing interesting from the newsflow, the pound was under the external information influence and the most important driver for the market could be the technical factors presented by the strong support. The British pound trading has been continuing in the narrow downward channel direction for the second month.


The dollar confirmed strengthening against the GBP has been stopped at the support level of 1.6570, which came at a reduced price volumes.


The price is finding the first support at 1.6570, the next one is at 1.6500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6640, the next one is at 1.6700.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


Trading recommendations


We expect a bounce upwards. The upward bounce potential target is 1.6640.









Yen (JPY)

General Overview


After the central bankers symposium, the dollar/yen has taken another upward jump, but has been stopped by the strong resistance levels, which resulted in a relatively small increase in the dollar against the yen on the Friday trading basis. This was the bulls’ week final point where the main driver was the Fed’s minutes publication, showing the growth in the policy tightening sentiments in the USA Central Bank leadership.


The resistance level of 102.60 has been an obstacle for buyers during six months, despite the fact that it has made its way up twice. The third level breakthrough, apparently, was the signal for the medium-term uptrend continuation.


The level of 102.65 breakthrough up comes amid low volumes, this allowed the bulls to raise the price to the historical resistance level of 103.90 - 104.00 formed from 2014.04.03.


The price is finding the first support at 103.70, the next one is at 103.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 104.00, the next one is at 104.35.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


Trading recommendations


We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 104.00. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 104.35.





Frank (CHF)


General overview


Today the debt crisis problem has receded, but the economic recovery stop in the eurozone by the end of the second quarter and the ECB promise to keep rates low for a long time do not allow the SNB to abandon the restrictions on the foreign exchange market. In Zuercher Kantonalbank believe that the Switzerland's central bank is limited in decision-making till the ECB will not start raising rates.


The franc also fell against the background of the dollar comprehensive strengthening. The dollar strengthened significantly after The Fed Chairman Janet Yellen said that the United States economy was recovering, and added that the situation in the labor market had been also improved.


The price is finding the first support at 0.9130, the next one is at 0.9090. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9170, the next one is at 0.9210.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


Trading recommendations


We advise to long with the first target - 0.9170. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9210.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


26.08.2014


Fundamental analysis


The single European currency has collapsed on Monday to the next local minimum against the dollar. The political and the Eurozone economy news did not give the "bulls" any chance for the euro recovery. The reason that caused another euro fall against the dollar could be the M. Draghi’s statements reporting about the possible monetary policy easing next phase beginning. In addition, the Ifo Institute Germany business sentiment report led to the market disappointments where the indicators had recorded the results lower and weaker than expected.




The British pound also opened the week lower against the dollar, but then it was able to return to the previous week levels. Obviously, this fact - the first lost sterling positions return occurred because of the GBP/USD strong technical supports and the absence of disappointing news where the last statistic wasn’t published due to the non-working day.




The yen continues to strengthen against the dollar on the optimism fall in the Japan stock market which may continue if the data on the State's economy do not offer the arguments to buy the pair.





Technical analysis


Euro (EUR)


General overview


The market opening occurred with a gap (the price break). At the time the gap has not been worked out. The short-term price consolidation above the support level of 1.3170 will lead to the price bounce upwards, followed by the price gap overlap.


The gap closing will allow the buyers to correct the price to the downtrend channel upper bound 1.3230. The downward channel upper bound retest is more likely to be followed by the price bounce downward.


The price is finding the support at 1.3170, the next one is at 1.3130. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3230, the next one is at 1.3290.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is fixing.


Trading recommendations


After the trend line 1.3170 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.3130 will be opened.





Pound (GBP)


General overview


The pound cannot break above the resistance level of 1.6570 for the fourth day. The consolidation below is followed by the sales volumes decrease which suggests the possible price bounce downward.




The price is finding the first support at 1.6570, the next one is at 1.6500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6640, the next one is at 1.6700.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward one. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


Trading recommendations


The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.6640, 1.6700. The approach to these lines may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the level of support 1.6500.





Yen (JPY)


General overview


The two weeks American dollar growth has been stopped at the resistance level of 104.35. The level formed the correctional wave, enabling the sellers to break below the support level of 103.70.


The level of 104.00 testing comes amid the low volumes. The pullback has no any special support from the sellers. And, apparently, the dollar decline against the Japanese yen will be stopped at the next support level of 103.70.


The price is finding the first support at 103.70, the next one is at 103.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 104.00, the next one is at 104.35.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is fixing.


Trading recommendations


The downward trend line 103.70 retest is more likely to lead to the strong price support level 104.35 growth.





Frank (CHF)


General overview


The dollar could not continue to grow. It was traded at level of 0.9160 which is below the Asian max, while the down side fluctuations were limited by the support level of 0.9130.


While the pair is trading above the broken resistance level of 0.9090, the further growth and the 92nd figure testing possibility remain high. The 91st figure loss will weaken the "bullish" impulse and may lead to the fall to 0.9000.


The price is finding the first support at 0.9130, the next one is at 0.9090. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9170, the next one is at 0.9210.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.


Trading recommendations


We advise to long with the first target - 0.9170. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can start a deal to the level of 0.9210.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


28.08.2014


Fundamental analysis


The dollar continued to strengthen against its major competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at around 82.67. The EUR/USD remained under the pressure on the background of the United States positive macroeconomic data. The July durable goods orders release showed 22.6% increase which provides a strong private consumption solid foundation in the current quarter. The consumer confidence index from the Conference Board also has pleased the market participants and a good report on this background pushed the euro/dollar to the level of 1.3165. The pair was returned above this level.


The GBP/USD amid the lack of interesting reports publication consolidated in a narrow range. However, as soon as the market participants got a pleasant surprise from the United States on the durable goods orders and the consumer confidence index - the sellers began actively selling the GBP/USD, based on the continued United States economy strong growth in this year 3rd quarter.


The stock index S & P500 storms all new maximums, followed by the Japanese stock market stretching and it all ends with the positive macroeconomic statistics from the United States on the durable goods orders. Against this background, we saw the bullish sentiment on the USD/JPY. The traders are still positive about the American dollar prospects and redeem any USD/JPY quotations decrease.





Technical analysis


Euro (EUR)


General overview


The single European currency is still the pressure. The euro selling has been resumed that can be caused by the sufficiently strong United States economy data. However, it seems not the only the euro weakening factor, it is possible that the investors are beginning to prepare for the euro zone inflation release which will be published later this week and the forecasts predict the further consumer price index reduction.


The sellers did not manage to break below the support level of 1.3170. The level breakthrough was followed by the relatively weak price reduction continuation amid the lower volumes.


The price is finding the support at 1.3170, the next one is at 1.3130 The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3230, the next one is at 1.3290.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


Trading recommendations


The trend is directed downwards. We expect the level of 1.3170 touching soon.





Pound (GBP)


General overview


The British pound also fell against the dollar, but new minimums were not tested. Like the euro, the pound has increased pressure during the American session following the U.S. economy published data. However, the UK news had a bleak character.


The four day price consolidation above the resistance level of 1.6570 was followed by the price bounce downward. The bouncing was followed by the background of the increased volume and fell to the minimum - 1.6545.


The price is finding the first support at 1.6570, the next one is at 1.6500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6640, the next one is at 1.6700.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


Trading recommendations


After the trend line 1.6570 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.6500 will be opened.





Yen (JPY)


General overview


The dollar/yen spent the yesterday trading in the differently directed movement. The investors bought the yen amid the falling Japan stock market and then it was sold under the United States economy good data influence.


The Japanese currency was traded against the dollar within a narrow range. The historical resistance level of 104.00 was tested. Because the fact that the testing occurred at the lower volumes, the buyers did not manage to consolidate above the level of 104.00.


The price is finding the first support at 103.70, the next one is at 103.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 104.00, the next one is at 104.35.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


Trading recommendations


The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 104.00, 104.35.





Franc (CHF)


General overview


The Eurozone economy recovery has been stopped forces the SNB to maintain measures to curb the national currency growth against the euro. Today, the debt crisis problem has been receded, but the economic recovery stop by the end of the second quarter and the ECB promise to keep rates low for a long time do not allow the SNB to abandon the restrictions on the foreign exchange market.


The dollar was stable against other major currencies after the United States consumer confidence upbeat data release and the controversial durable goods orders report.


The price is finding the first support at 0.9130, the next one is at 0.9090. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9170, the next one is at 0.9210.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


Trading recommendations


We advise to long with the first target - 0.9170. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can start a deal to the level of 0.9210.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


29.08.2014


Fundamental analysis


The main American currency competitors could return some lost ground. The EUR/USD gained 0.2% against the partial profit taking on the short positions. No important macroeconomic statistics have been published, and after the price drop to the level of 1.3160 traders started to close the "shorts", which allowed the euro to correct to the 32nd figure. Nevertheless the pair decreased.




The GBP/USD is trying to test 1.6535-1.6600 short-term trading range upper bound, but the bears fought off the attack which indicates the pessimism presence about the British currency prospects. Amid the empty macroeconomic calendar we again observed a side trend.




The Japan and the United States stock market quotations decrease cheered the bears to short opening. However, we have not seen the American currency strong sales - the bulls are still buying the rollbacks and we observe the consolidation within the range of 103.70 -104.15.





Technical analysis


Euro (EUR)


The euro was not able to reverse the situation and did not strengthen against the dollar. The Eurozone economic statistics has not issued anything supportive for the single currency.


The buyers failed to break above the resistance level of 1.3230 and the downtrend channel of 1.3200 upper boundary. The two levels breakthrough occurred at the high volumes this week.


The price is finding the support at 1.3170, the next one is at 1.3130. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3230, the next one is at 1.3290.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


Trading recommendations


The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.3230 and 1.3290.





Pound (GBP)


The British pound did grow against the American dollar. The important economic and political news weren’t published nor in the Britain, nor in the United States.


The level of 1.6640 breakthrough occurred at lower volumes, the price for the fourth time will be able to test the 1.6640 downward trend line strength (the downtrend channel upper bound).


The price is finding the first support at 1.6570, the next one is at 1.6500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6640, the next one is at 1.6700.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is fixing.


Trading recommendations


After the trend line 1.6570 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.6500 will be opened.





Yen (JPY)


The yen did not continue to rise against the dollar. There is the optimism fall in the Japan stock market where the Nikkei was dropped by 0.5%.




The second approach to the resistance level of 104.20 was fallowed by the price bounce down. Against the background of the low volumes the American dollar corrected down against the Japanese yen.


The price is finding the first support at 103.70, the next one is at 103.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 104.00, the next one is at 104.35.


There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


Trading recommendations


The potential rebound target are the support levels of 104.00 and 104.35.





Franc (CHF)


The dollar was under the pressure from its major opponents. Amid the lack of the economic news the strong support and resistance levels led to the correction, resulting the dollar fell against all the majors.


The price is finding the first support at 0.9130, the next one is at 0.9090. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9170, the next one is at 0.9210.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


Trading recommendations


We advise to long with the first target - 0.9170. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9210.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


01.09.2014


Fundamental analysis


The market is quite. The major pairs showed a further side correction during which the dollar slightly fell against the euro and the pound and also got slightly stronger to the yen. The State's economy supported the dollar, still it had a minimal impact on the market. Clearly, the investors are waiting for the stronger drivers that may appear from the United States labor data this week.


There was a more strong States economic recovery in the 2nd quarter - the GDP growth was revised from + 4.2% q/q, instead of the reducing to 3.8% q/q, while the previous calculations showed to + 3.9% q/q, the secondary housing market sales signed contracts number in July rose more than expected, showing +3.3% m/m, with expectations to see +0.6% m/m, and the initial claims number fell to 298 thousand last week, while the forecast expected about 300 thousand.


We expect the U.S. July costs and incomes data and the Chicago activity reports. The demand indicators, which are ranked as costs and incomes are forecasted to be expected with a continued +0.2% m/m and +0.3% m/m growth respectively, which indicates the stable consumer activity, and the August Chicago PMI index with the rise to 56.3 from 52.6 previously. These results are the positive indicators for the dollar and can support it.





Technical analysis


Euro (EUR)


The Eurozone economy reports have put a pressure on the European single currency which lowered the euro/dollar. The reason for this disappointment came from Germany and the European Commission studies on the European bloc economy sentiment.


The buyers finally managed to close the price gap. Once the gap was closed, the price immediately dropped to the support level of 1.3130.


The price is finding the support at 1.3130, the next one is at 1.3070 The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3170, the next one is at 1.3230.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


Trading recommendations


The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.3070 soon.





Pound (GBP)


The pound/dollar continues to trade near the strong technical levels reached by the "bearish" trend. The UK economy news was favorable for the pound – the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) reported the August strong sales growth, the indicator rose to 37 from 21, while it was expected to rise only 27.


The continuous price consolidation occurs in the downward channel direction. As the resistance level of 1.6640 is not broken, the potential downtrend remains in force.


The price is finding the first support at 1.6570, the next one is at 1.6500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6640, the next one is at 1.6700.


The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.


The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.


Trading recommendations


After the trend line 1.6570 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.6500 will be opened.





Yen (JPY)


The Japanese yen strengthened against the dollar. Obviously, the stock market and the technical resistance levels weakness favor the profit-taking on the instrument. In addition, the pressure on the dollar could be strengthened by the exporters selling.


There has been the support level of 103.70 retest. In the light of the high-volume the sellers tried to break below the level, but the test was followed by the price false bounce up.


The price is finding the first support at 103.70, the next one is at 103.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 104.00, the next one is at 104.35.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.


Trading recommendations


We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level of 104.00, the next one is level of 104.35.





Franc (CHF)


The dollar strengthened after the preliminary data showed that the United States domestic product gross was increased by 4.2% in the second quarter, exceeding the growth expectations of 3.9%.


The price is finding the first support at 0.9170, the next one is at 0.9130. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9210.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


Trading recommendations


If the price decreases we advise to short with the first target - 0.9130. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9090. If the price grows we advise to long with the first target - 0.9170. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9210.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


02.09.2014


Fundamental analysis


The dollar became the market leader - the dollar index basket (USDX) is at around 82.73. The EUR/USD remained under pressure amid the weak Eurozone data. The Germany and Spain July retail sales were significantly decreased which together with the CPI decrease to 0.3% y/y has caused the euro sales. A deflationary threat still hangs over the Eurozone and therefore the traders wait for the ECB decisive actions on September 4.


The bulls once again tried to attack the level of 1.6602 on the GBP/USD, but once again the bears successfully repulsed the attack. After the Institute of Michigan revised data publication we saw strong pound selling. The consumer confidence index rose to 82.5 in August, which is a positive signal for the economy, now it is possible to expect the personal consumption growth.


The Japan macroeconomic statistics disappointed the foreign exchange market participants - in addition to the CPI decrease, the same household spending fell sharply by 5.9% in July which is extremely negative for the economy’s growth. In this regard, we observed the Japanese yen weakening and the USD/JPY price growth which at the moment reaches 104.10. The Japan's economy after the April 1 sales tax rates increase shows a sharp slowdown while the United States showed a steady growth over the same period which caused the bullish trend continuation.





Technical analysis


Euro (EUR)


The single currency broke the resistance level of 1.3170 last week and fell to the support level of 1.3130 where started trading this week. The short-term level tests have allowed the buyers to close the price gap.


The level of 1.3170 five day retest led to the price bounce down and the further dollar strengthening. The downward trend continued amid the low volumes.


The price is finding the support at 1.3130, the next one is at 1.3070. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3170, the next one is at 1.3230.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The pair is back to the ‘Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is fixing.


Trading recommendations


The trend is a down side. We expect the level of 1.3070 testing soon.





Pound (GBP)


The pound trading continues in the downward channel direction for the second month. In the short term, the USD strengthening against the GBP has been stopped at the support level of 1.6570. The temporary break which occurred last week was followed by the correctional price growth up to the downward trend line 1.6640


The price is finding the first support at 1.6570, the next one is at 1.6500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6640, the next one is at 1.6700.


The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.


The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.


Trading recommendations


The level of 1.6640 retest may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the level of support 1.6500.





Yen (JPY)


The resistance level of 104.00 first break wasn’t long. The buyers has broken the historical resistance for the second time and fixed above. The dollar strengthening against the Japanese yen occurred amid the lower volumes. Despite the fact that the upward trend is gradually fizzles out, the resistance level of 104.00 break up in the longer term indicates the bullish trend continuation.


The price is finding the first support at 104.00, the next one is at 103.70. The price is finding the first resistance at 104.35, the next one is at 104.80.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.


Trading recommendations


The pair can grow to the resistance level of 104.35. After breaking 104.35 the buyers may go to 104.80.





Franc (CHF)


The franc continued to decrease against the dollar strengthening. The American currency has strengthened its position after the United States solid economic publication.


The data showed that the United States consumer confidence index rose to 92.4 in August, compared with 90.3 in July. It has been the highest level since October 2007.


The price is finding the first support at 0.9170, the next one is at 0.9130. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9200, the next one is at 0.9240.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The pair is back to the “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


Trading recommendations


We advise to long with the first target - 0.9200. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9240.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


03.09.2014


Fundamental analysis


The pairs spent week beginning within the small ranges amid the United States banking output the EUR/USD was held in the horizontal flat market 1.3118 -1.3145 amid the empty macroeconomic calendar day. Traders are ready to test the 312 figure, but don’t hurry to take positions before the ECB meeting, scheduled for Thursday, September 4th.


The UK manufacturing sector PMI release disappointed the investors. The August resulting value was 52.5 while the index is below the 12-month average for two months in a row which is a negative signal for the production sector. We observed the GBP/USD price growth before the report publication, but then the investors were selling the British currency.


The bulls keep the USD/JPY situation under control. Now almost nothing threatens the upward trend and against this background we observe the price increase even on an empty macroeconomic calendar. As the importers do not prevent such a scenario - then their risks are hedged and they are also ready for the upward trend.





Euro (EUR)


The volumes divergence indicates the downward trend weakening. But they haven’t reported about the trend reversal up signals. The euro decrease against the American dollar is in the downward channel which is the price movement benchmark.


In addition, the trading goes below the last week minimum - the resistance level of 1.3170. This level is a strong resistance on the buyers’ way.


The price is finding the support at 1.3070. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3130, the next one is at 1.3170.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The pair is back to the “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is fixing.


Trading recommendations


The trend is a directed down. We believe the pair will move to 1.3070 soon.





Pound (GBP)


The pound made an attempt to rise against the dollar at the beginning of this week. Earlier this week, the market sentiment was on the sterling side which probably wad due to the technical factors and some policy tightening strengthening expectations by the Bank of England.


The buyers managed to come to the resistance level of 1.6640. This growth happened amid the negative GBP fundamental data. Then the sellers managed to break through the support level of 1.6570 and to reduce the price to the support level of 1.6500.


The price is finding the first support at 1.6500, the next one is at 1.6440. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6570, the next one is at 1.6640.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement.


The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


Trading recommendations


The potential decrease target is the support level of 1.6440.





Yen (JPY)


The Japanese yen dropped against the dollar and as the result recorded a loss. The historic resistance level of 104.80 did not stop the American dollar growth against the Japanese yen. The small downward correction was followed by the confirmed uptrend continuation.


The dollar strengthening has allowed the buyers to break above the strong resistance levels of 104.35 and 104.80.


The price is finding the first support at 104.80, the next one is at 104.35. The price is finding the first resistance at 105.20, the next one is at 105.60.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


Trading recommendations


The price is likely to go to the downward trend line 105.60.





Franc (CHF)


The dollar gained on the euro weakness and the Asian markets rise which have kept the investors demand for the yen refuge.


The price is finding the first support at 0.9170, the next one is at 0.9130. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9200, the next one is at 0.9240.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The pair is back to the “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.


Trading recommendations


We advise to long with the first target - 0.9240. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9300.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


04.09.2014


Fundamental analysis


The American currency has strengthened its position against its main competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day around 82.99, the first time since July 2013. However, the EUR/USD has been in a horizontal flat for the third trading day in a row, despite the United States positive macroeconomic data. The traders do not hurry to open positions before the European monetary control meeting and against this background we observe the range trading.




The GBP/USD has ignored the UK strong construction sector business activity release and tested the 65 figure after the ISM manufacturing sphere positive data publication. The ISM index came in at 59 which is the highest level since April 2011. This release supports the positive forecast for the 3rd quarter in the United States economy and against the UK manufacturing sector weakness we observed the massive pound sell-off along the entire market.




The bulls were able to take the 105 figure on the USD/JPY. We observed the large number of the activated stop orders in the Asian session which brought the pair to the strong level of 104.80. However, we did not see the stop amid a corporate bonds strong demand in the Japanese stock market so the growth was continued amid the United States manufacturing sector business activity positive macroeconomic statistics release. The pair slightly fell at the end of the trading day.





Technical analysis


Euro (EUR)


The euro showed stability against the dollar and ended the day on the opening price. Obviously the strong technical levels and the uncertainty about the rate results expectations from the ECB meeting which ends on Thursday supported the European currency. However during the afternoon trading the euro was under the pressure and the euro/dollar fell even to the new daily low.


The buyers broke through the downtrend channel upper bound at the level of 1.3130. Thus, the price is out of the downtrend channel that limits indicates the corrective rally up formation.


The price is finding the first support at 1.3130, the next one is at 1.3070. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3170, the next one is at 1.3230.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is fixing.


Trading recommendations


The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.3170, 1.3230.





Pound (GBP)


The British pound has fallen against the dollar and lost about 140 points. The main reason for such pessimism was the increased rumors about the possible the Scotland separation from the UK.


The pulse rates decrease is happened after the level of 1.6570 breakthrough. Such a strong price fall occurred amid the GBP positive fundamental release.


The trading volumes support a downward trend. Bears are very strong now.


The price is finding the first support at 1.6440, the next one is at 1.6370. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6500, the next one is at 1.6570.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Death Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.


Trading recommendations


We believe the decrease will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.6370.





Yen (JPY)


The Japanese yen also as the pound fell solidly against the dollar. After the four months sleep the dollar actively strengthens against the Japanese yen. The two month growth happened amid the low volumes and the pair reached the historic resistance level of 105.20 formed from 2013.12.30. Then the pair slightly fell.


The price is finding the first support at 104.80, the next one is at 104.35. The price is finding the first resistance at 105.20, the next one is at 105.60.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


Trading recommendations


We suppose the pair will go to 104.60 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 104.35.





Franc (CHF)


The Swiss Franc slightly strengthened against the dollar. The dollar held near 14-month high to the major currencies basket due to the good United States economic statistics and the US bond yields growth.


The price is finding the first support at 0.9170, the next one is at 0.9130. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9200, the next one is at 0.9240.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.


Trading recommendations


We advise to long with the first target - 0.9200. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9240.







Fort Financial Services - Citadel of Trading

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


05.09.2014


Fundamental analysis


The EUR/USD enjoyed a moderate demand from the traders the other day despite the weak macroeconomic data from the Eurozone. The August service sector PMI final data was revised down to the level of 53.1. The retail sales also showed a decline of -0.4%, which indicates a lack of consumer confidence in the region. However, the euro/dollar was growing moderately, as willing to sell at the low levels has been very little. Nevertheless after the ECB’s decision to reduce the interest rate the pair fell to the new minimums.




The GBP/USD ignores the positive macroeconomic data from the United Kingdom. The services PMI rose to the level of 60.5, which is the highest level in the last 10 months. However, we have not seen a strong demand for the pound - at the moment the price reached the level of 1.6496 and the bulls’ impulse for the growth was over. As we do not see the GBP/USD growth- there are strong sellers in the market. The pair also fell after the EBC’s decisions announcement.




After a long upward trend – the investors are taking profits in the USD/JPY. It should also be noted that the "longs" closing also happened in the United States and Japan stock markets which also inspired the bears to the short-term short positions opening. No important macroeconomic statistics has not been published and the sales were of a purely technical nature.





Euro (EUR)


The euro came under the dual influence. The markets negative sentiment provides a weak economic data from the euro zone and the risk appetite - a possible transition to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine peacekeeping phase. As a result, the single currency spent the day in multidirectional trade before the ECB’s meeting. After the decision to reduce the interest rate the euro fell.


Two days price consolidation was followed by a slight increase. Then the pair decreased to a new min.


The price is finding the first support at 1.2930, the next one is at 1.2850. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3000, the next one is at 1.3070.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


Trading recommendations


The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 0.2850 soon.





Pound (GBP)


The British economy good data maintained the sterling for a very short time. The attempt to start the GBP/USD growth quickly stopped after the statistics indicated the British services field activity growth rate efforts. The market participants were waiting for the ECB’s meeting results.


More recently, the historical level of 1.6485 formed from 2014.03.21, was a sufficiently great support. But after the ECB announced that they decided to reduce the interest rate the pound significantly fell.


The price is finding the first support at 1.6340, the next one is at 1.6270. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6440, the next one is at 1.6500.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Death Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is going down.


Trading recommendations


The approach to the level of 1.6440 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the level of support 1.6270.





Yen (JPY)


The yen strengthened slightly against the dollar. Obviously, the technical levels and the Bank of Japan rate outcome expectations became a deterrent to the USD/JPY growth. The Japanese regulator did not change anything and confirmed the economy optimistic assessment, despite the slowdown in the economic activity, after the sales tax increase in April. This decision has no effect on the market, the dollar/yen was traded in a narrow range. As for the future, it is likely that the calmness will last until the European Central Bank decisions and the USA economy data which can give fresh guidelines for the trading.


The American dollar is testing the historical resistance level 105.20 strength.


The price is finding the first support at 104.80, the next one is at 104.35. The price is finding the first resistance at 105.20, the next one is at 105.60.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


Trading recommendations


The pair can grow to the resistance level of 104.35. We do not exclude the growth to 105.70.





Franc (CHF)


The Swiss franc fell against the dollar. There were not any national macrostatistics, so the first rate dynamics was formed by the United States Statistics. The United States labor market continues to slow the growth, but the changes in wages and the price pressures are not seen. The pair rose sharply after the ECB meeting.


The price is finding the first support at 0.9170, the next one is at 0.9130. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9200, the next one is at 0.9240.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


Trading recommendations


We advise to long with the first target - 0.9300. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9370.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


08.09.2014


Fundamental analysis


The ECB’s surprise supported the dollar as the US currency strengthened the confidence on all fronts. The market was surprised that the European regulator not only lowered all the key interest rates, but also announced the securities buying that, in fact, is the quantitative easing.


As a result the dollar rose against the euro by 200 points and against the pound over 140 points. The dispute with the yen was also positive for the dollar, but in this case, it seems to have been largely driven by the United States good economic data. As the presented statistics, the United States trade deficit was narrowed in July, instead of the expected increase to -42.5 billion it recorded -40.6 billion dollars, while the initial jobless claims rose, but not significantly, only to 302 thousand against the expectations to see 300 thousand and ADP private sector employment dynamics reports which noted the increase on 204 thousand with expectations of 215 thousand which was quite a positive result.


The positive news came from the Supply Management Institute, the USA non-manufacturing sector activity report in August - the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to 59.6 from 58.7 in July. Despite the fact that some indicators fell short, it did not carry negative moments for the dollar and did not stop it from the market leadership, as indicator values reflect the high levels.





Technical analysis


Euro (EUR)


The ECB's monetary policy publication fell off the euro last week. The prime lending rate was reduced to 0.05% from 0.15% and the bank deposit rate to -0.2% from -0.1%. We observed the single currency massive selling. M. Draghi’s words that the ECB will launch the asset-backed private sector securities buying round weakened the euro positions.


The single currency has lost 230 points against the dollar.


The price is finding the first support at 1.2930, the next one is at 1.2850. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.3000, the next one is at 1.3070.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is fixing.


Trading recommendations


The trend is a down side. The potential downtrend targets are the support levels: 1.2930, 1.2850. The level of 1.2850 retest may lead to a price rebound upward.





Pound (GBP)


The British pound also fell against the dollar. The sterling collapse came amid the dollar optimism caused by the ECB decisions. While the British regulator has not changed the main refinancing rate currently at 0.5% and left the bond purchases program in the amount of 375 billion pounds.


The price rapid decrease has led to the 1.6340 downtrend channel lower bound breakthrough. The level break occurred in the context of increased volume which in the longer term indicates the bearish trend continuation.


The price is finding the support at 1.6270. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6340, the next one is at 1.6440.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


Trading recommendations


The potential downtrend target is the support level of 1.6270.





Yen (JPY)


The Japanese currency also fell against the dollar. However, news about the ECB decision significantly affected the USD/JPY positions. The United States economy good results news and U.S. Treasuries profitability growth supported the dollar.


The USD/JPY has tested the historical resistance level of 105.30 strength. The level retest was followed by the price bounce downward.


The price is finding the first support at 104.80, the next one is at 104.35. The price is finding the first resistance at 105.30, the next one is at 105.70.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


Trading recommendations




We suppose the pair will go to 104.80 first. If the price fixates, it may continue the upward trend in the short term.





Franc (CHF)


The Franc suffered losses against the general dollar trend due to expectations that the world's largest economy strengthening signs will allow the Fed to start the monetary policy normalizing process sooner than expected.


The price is finding the first support at 0.9270, the next one is at 0.9210. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9330, the next one is at 0.9370.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is fixing.


Trading recommendations


We advise to long with the first target - 0.9330. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9370.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


09.09.2014


Fundamental analysis


The American currency slightly lost some positions against the background of the moderately negative macroeconomic statistics - the dollar index basket (USDX) ended the last trading week at 83.77.


The EUR/USD trading was within the range of 1.2921 -1.2988. The pair fell at the end of the trading day. The United States labor market release came out ambiguous - the unemployment rate fell to the level of 6.1%, while the non-farm payrolls rose only to the level of 142,000, instead of the expected 226 000. Against this background, the bulls tried to push quotes to the 30 figure, but the bears were able to fight off the level which indicates a strong euro/dollar strong downward trend.


The GBP/USD also remained under the pressure during the day, but some market participants decided to take profits on the short positions after the Non-Farm report which came worse than the forecasted medians, but it didn’t bring any strong dividends to the pound. The pair sharply fell down.


The USD/JPY was able to set the fresh maximum at the level of 105.70 - the bulls started to close the "longs" which caused the strong price decrease. The United States employment macroeconomic statistics increased the downward movement and at the moment the price reached the level of 104.68, but by the end of the trading the bulls were able to restore the lost positions. The pair rose above the level of 105.70.





Technical analysis


Euro (EUR)


The euro declined against the dollar at high volumes. Moreover, the general USD majors pairs' correlation is directed towards the dollar strengthening.


The trend line of 1.2980 – 1.3000 break should be highlighted. The sellers were able not only to break down such a strong support, but lowered the price for 240 points down.


The price is finding the support at 1.2850. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2930, the next one is at 1.3000.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


Trading recommendations


The potential decrease target is the support level of 1.2830 – 1.2850. This level test may lead to a price consolidation.





Pound (GBP)


The last week was a breakdown for the British pound. The sellers managed to break through the two strong support levels located at levels of 1.6440 and 1.6340 at high volumes.


The active dollar strengthening against the GBP led to the descending channel leaving and a gap. In the future, we expect the bearish trend continuation.


The price is finding the support at 1.6100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6180, the next one is at 1.6270.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


Trading recommendations


The trend is directed down. We expect the level of 1.6100 testing soon.





Yen (JPY)


There was a historical resistance level of 105.70 testing. The price came above this level.


As a rule, the false the strong resistance level testing is a good signal for the upward trend reversal. But as long as the sale proceeds in the uptrend direction, the bullish trend is still strong.


The price is finding the support at 105.70, the next one is at 105.30. The price is finding the resistance at 106.30.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


Trading recommendations


The resistance level of 105.70 testing is more likely to lead to the consolidation.





Franc (CHF)


The franc partially compensated the loss after the report showed the smaller United States August new jobs increase than analysts expected. This news weakened the expectations that the Federal Reserve will start to interest rates raise sooner than expected.


The price is finding the first support at 0.9330, the next one is at 0.9270. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9430.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


Trading recommendations


We advise to long with the first target - 0.9370. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9430.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


10.09.2014


Fundamental analysis


The new week showed the dollar strengthening resumption. Obviously, the emotions caused by the unsatisfactory labor report were forgotten and the dollar continued its rally. There wasn’t any meaningful statistics published, except the Japan news where the second GDP estimate marked the economy reduction and the market is guided by the political impulse component which stimulates the dollar popularity growth.


Another internal region influence factors were added by the Fed and ECB multi-directional policy fact that supports the dollar – the UK increases the Scotland separation probability, Japan showed top management statements disagreement about the fiscal and monetary policies prospects amid the weak economic data.


There was not published any interesting United States statistics. News that is worth attention is the NFIB small business sentiment report. It is assumed that the August optimism index in this area rose to 96.0 from 95.7. These expectations, of course, do not change their sentiment towards the dollar, but at the same time will not add the buying impulse. It is most likely that the dollar will continue strengthening under already formed sentiment influence, but it can interfere with the technical factors, as the American currency look much overbought and majors have come to serious levels of support and resistance.





Technical analysis


Euro (EUR)


General Overview


The American dollar has been actively strengthening against the euro. Obviously, the pessimism caused by the United States employment has gone and the market returned again under the main influence pressure factors - the ECB information about the measures taken to soften the monetary policy. There wasn’t a lot of the euro area economy news. Still the yesterday’s releases were able to support the euro for some time.


The buyers managed to update the last week minimum at the level of 1.2920 and to fix below the level of 1.2930.


The price is finding the first support at 1.2850, the next one is at 1.2790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2930, the next one is at 1.3000.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


Trading recommendations


The potential growth target is the resistance level of 1.3000. The approach to this line may lead to a price rebound down. The potential decrease target is the support level of 1.2790.





Pound (GBP)


General Overview


The pound continued its decline against the dollar. The price gap in about 55 points was not closed and the downward trend was continued amid the increased volumes.


The Scotland separation probability gives the uncertainty to the UK economy perspective and gives more assurance that the Bank of England will have to postpone the first rate raise which support the pound demand.


The price is finding the support at 1.6030. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6100, the next one is at 1.6180.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


Trading recommendations


The downward trend line 1.6180 retest is more likely to lead to the strong price support level 1.6080 decrease.





Yen (JPY)


General Overview


The Japanese yen also fell against the dollar. Probably, the first push for the rally resumption was given by the message that the second GDP estimate in the 2nd quarter recorded an even greater reduction than it was previously stated. Further, the yen could be pushed by the prime minister of Japan economic adviser E. Honda statements who spoke about the new sales tax growth inexpediency which is planned for the next year.


There was the strong resistance level of 105.30 breakthrough.


The continuous trading in the uptrend direction has led to the upper bound at the level of 105.70 breakthrough. The upward trend continues to gain strength.


The price is finding the support at 106.30, the next one is at 105.70. The price is finding the resistance at 106.70.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


Trading recommendations


Currently, the price is being traded above the resistance level 106.30 which has already become a support. We do not exclude the consolidation.





Franc (CHF)


General Overview


The Franc strengthened its position despite the fact that the dollar growth on the Fed monetary policy normalization process expectations remains in force.


The price is finding the first support at 0.9330, the next one is at 0.9270. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9430.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


Trading recommendations


We advise to long with the first target - 0.9370. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9430.