"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


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  1. #241
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    10.08.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    At the end of the last week the markets tended to consolidate ahead of the Friday’s US key data output, including the labor market report. As a result, the dollar fell slightly against the EUR and JPY and in dispute with the British pound it recorded a certain "profit".


    The US Labor Department reported that the US economy added 215,000 jobs last month, instead of the expected 223000. There was created 231,000 jobs in June and the figures were revised from 223,000.


    Among the pairs that demonstrated the maximum volatility we should identify only the pair GBP/USD where the US dollar was supported by the information indicating a certain extent of the British regulator monetary policy prospects. Last week the Bank of England left its key interest rate unchanged at the level of 0.5%, the fund bond purchases volume also was not changed, leaving it in the amount of 375 billion pounds and has signaled that it is still preparing to start raising interest rates, but only at the beginning of next year. As a result, the pair GBP/USD has declined more than 100 points downwards.


    There were published the BoJ meeting results- the Japanese regulator has not changed its monetary policy parameters. The market reacted to this information rather quiet and the pair USD/JPY continued to form the side trend. Nevertheless the pair closed the trades with a decrease.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The euro remained within the side trend and slightly declined against the US dollar. The main decline was after the weak German industrial production and the trade balance figures publication. The Germany industrial volume fell by 1.4% in June. The market had expected a growth by 0.3%. While the country trade surplus unexpectedly fell against the expected growth.


    Earlier the US dollar was supported by the initial jobless claims data which rose to 270K. The forecast median was 273K.


    The short-term correction within the euro was formed that is consolidating below the resistance level of 1.0925. Then the pair broke this level upwards.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    After the support level of 1.0925 breakthrough down the way to the support levels of 1.0790 and 1.0670 will be opened.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    Last week the British pound fell sharply against the US dollar after investors learned that the Bank of England was planning to increase its key interest rate only in 2016. The pound has not changed its position after the UK trade deficit publication which increased to 9.18 billion pounds in June from 8.42 billion pounds in May.


    The markets remain cautious ahead of the July US employment official report that suggested an increase by 223,000. The release showed a growth by 215,000.


    Sellers have broken through and consolidated below the level of 1.5550, the level breakthrough was followed by increased volumes. Then there was a small price correction to the resistance level of 1.5550. Nevertheless, this movement was short-term and the pair tested the support level of 1.5460.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5670.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    The sellers need to break below 1.5460 for a steady downward movement. The way to the marks of 1.5390 and 1.5300 will be opened after this breakthrough.






    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The dollar grew against the yen before the US employment report publication. On Friday the Bank of Japan did not change the policy and kept the expensive stimulus program. The market had expected such a result, so its reaction was weak. Meanwhile, analysts suggest that the number of jobs grew by 223,000 in July and the unemployment rate remained at the level of 5.3 %. In fact the unemployment rate remained at the level of 5.3 % and the number of jobs grew by 215,000.


    Having broken through the resistance level of 124.30 upwards, the upward trend within the Japanese yen has stopped. Little consolidation below the level led to the downward correction. The pair closed the trades below the level of 124.30.


    The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    We expect the 124.30 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 125.50, further then towards 127.00.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The Swiss franc has fallen against the US dollar. According to the data, the Switzerland unemployment rate remained unchanged at the level of 3.1% which coincided with the forecasts. Investors' attention was directed to the last week critical report and to the US labor market data. Analysts suggested that the number of jobs increased by 223,000 in July and the unemployment rate remained at the minimum level of 5.3% since April 2008. According to the published release the unemployment rate came out at the forecasted median and the number of jobs increased by 223,000.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9960.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to long with the first target - 0.9850. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9960.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  2. #242
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    11.08.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    Last week the foreign exchange market trades were under the wait and see positions’ influence that investors have taken on the eve of the July US employment release, hoping to get fresh guidance concerning the rate increases time.


    The June and May Non-Farms were revised for an increase, in general by 14 thousand and apparently, it strengthened confidence that the Fed short-term interest rates would be raised in September and caused the dollar full-scale purchases explosion. However, the "bulls" triumph was not long, very soon the US dollar came under pressure. At the beginning of the new week it was not able to maintain its achievements against the pound besides earlier the pair pound/dollar fell amid the UK negative data.


    The euro remained on the "float" in the dispute with the US dollar despite the weak statistics that came from the EU leading economies. The euro negative activity amid the US data was short-term and soon the euro returned all its losses, ending the day with a profit.


    After the side consolidation the pair USD/JPY rose on the US reports, but soon it fell down. Obviously, the change of mood within this pair has been provoked by the events in the US debt market where the "treasuries" profitability has fallen sharply after the employment report publication.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    According to the Bank of France forecasts, the country economic growth will increase slightly in the third quarter. According to the Bank of France companies’ activity survey in July, the French 3rd quarter GDP will increase by 0.3% compared to the 2nd quarter. The Bank of France previous survey pointed out that the GDP growth in the 2nd quarter was 0.2%. The Bank of France said that the manufacturing sector and the service sector business sentiment remained unchanged compared to June.


    There was the strong resistance level of 1.0925 breakthrough upwards on the pair EUR/USD. Then the pair increased and the resistance level of 1.1050 was broken through.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.


    There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.1050, 1.1150.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The first day of the week has passed in the absence of any important statistics. The market reacted only on the Federal Open Market Committee members Fisher and Lockhart speeches. Both members support the early rate hike at least twice before the end of the year. So it was expected quite harsh rhetoric. Investors are waiting for the UK labor market indicators which are scheduled for Wednesday.


    The pair GBP/USD is consolidating above the strong support level of 1.5460. then the pair broke through the resistance level of 1.5550.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.


    The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.


    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    When the price consolidates it may go downwards. The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.5550 and 1.5460.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The yen fell against the dollar after the macroeconomic statistics publication. The foreign economic activity results marked the surplus emergence in the June trade balance - +102.7 billion yen against the earlier 47.3 billion yen, but the current account balances reduction to 588 billion yen after 1880.9 billion yen in May.


    There was the upward trend breakthrough within the pair USD/JPY. There is a short-term correction near the level of 124.50 that is playing the role of a resistance.


    The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    We suppose the pair will go to 125.50 first after a consolidation. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 127.00.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  3. #243
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    12.08.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The week beginning was not successful for the US dollar. The US dollar fell against GBP and EUR, still it recorded quite insignificant "profit" against JPY. There was published the US economy important statistics and, probably, the US dollar decline can be related to the technical factors as well as to the grown doubts that the Fed will begin the policy tightening next month.


    The euro sharp rise helped the deputy chairman S. Fisher comments. He said that the Federal Reserve would not raise interest rates in September while it is low inflation. The US Federal Reserve representative D. Lockhart also mentioned in his speech about the low inflation.


    In response to these statements the dollar sharply fell down along the whole fronts. The pair EUR/USD and the pair GBP/USD have increased. Only the pair USD/JPY showed the dollar’s growth.


    The fact is that the market considered the possibility of the Fed September rate hike almost as a settled issue. Now, when Lockhart excluded the word "September" from his rhetoric, the event no longer looks so certain. It is likely that the Friday's Fed data also influenced it. In any case, it would mean at least the dollar temporary weakening against most of its competitors.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The difference between the ECB and the Fed policy directions remains the main medium-term driver for the pair. The July Italy CPI was published which was expected to 0.2 y/y and -0.1 m/m. In fact, the data has not changed, confirming the traders’ forecasts. The ZEW Institute German current economic environment index was in the center of our attention. In August, the figure is expected to reach 64.5 against 63.9. In fact the data came out at the level of 65.7.


    It is noted the resistance level of 1.1050 to be tested. The bulls failed to break it.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1050. After breaking 1.1050 the buyers may go to 1.1150.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    According to the BRC, the UK retail sales in the same stores fell by 1.2% y/y vs. 1.8% y/y in July. It was expected a decline by 1.0%. The UK average wage reports for June are of great interest as well as July jobless claims number changes for July. The news output is expected on Wednesday.


    It was the resistance level of 1.5550 breakthrough within the pair GBP/USD. The pair is consolidating.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.


    There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The buyers need to break above 1.5670 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.5775 will be opened after this breakthrough.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The Japanese economic data showed positive changes in the money supply – the M2 aggregate in July increased to 4.1% y/y vs. 3.9% y/y in June and the M3 aggregate rose up to 3.3% y/y from 3.2% y/y. The equipment orders dynamics was less encouraging – it was recorded 1.6% y/y in July against 6.6 y/y in the previous period.


    It is noted the pair USD/JPY growth after the rebound from the support level of 124.30.


    The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    After the resistance level of 125.50 breakthrough upwards the way to the resistance 127.00 will be opened.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  4. #244
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    13.08.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The China Central Bank's decision was the main event that devalued the yuan. The US currency strengthened against all the major opponents in the light of this, still it was not able to keep the leading position.


    The message that Greeks have reached an agreement with creditors and will receive assistance in the framework of the regular lending program caused European majors quite full-scale purchases which led to the US dollar decline against the euro to the end of the session and in the dispute with the pound.


    The China’s decision to devalue the yuan has put pressure on the pound as it was considered it would be able to strengthen the disinflation pressure in the UK and to extend the low inflation period in the United Kingdom which leads to the raising rates transfer at a later date.


    The measures taken by China have put pressure on the Japanese currency as well. Another reason to sell the yen was the Japan Prime Minister advisors E. Honda’s statements who said that if the expected GDP data pointed to the sharp decline in the second quarter there would be a need to deploy a new fiscal stimulus.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    According to the Bank of France, the France payments balance current account surplus has grown for June due to the foreign trade deficit reduction. The payments balance current account surplus amounted to 1 billion euro against 200 million euro in May. The trade deficit fell to 1 billion euro from 1.7 billion euro in June.


    The euro managed to break through above the key resistance level of 1.1050. Due to this resistance breakthrough, buyers got the way to the strong resistance level of 1.1150 that was also broken.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.1260, 1.1450.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    Taking into account bonuses, the UK average wage fell to 2.4% in June against the earlier 3.2%, but it was expected a decline to 2.8%. The number of jobless claims further declined than expected: -4.9K vs. 1.5K. The debate figure was revised downwards from 7.0K to 0.2K. The unemployment rate has not changed and confirmed the forecasts - 5.6%.


    Buyers corrected the price to the level of 1.5610 on the low volumes. It was expected the given level testing but bulls did not test it.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    If the price fixates above the resistance 1.5670, it may continue the upward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 1.5775 and 1.5950.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The Japan monetary policy meeting minutes were published in the Asian session on Tuesday. We received the industrial production positive results, the industrial production volume increased to 1.1% m/m which is higher than the growth expectations up to 0.8%. The service sector business activity index came out better than expected: 0.3% m/m against the growth expectations up to 0.1% m/m while the index was -0.7% m/m last month.


    The price consolidated above the support level of 124.30. However the pair fell below this level amid the weakened dollar. Now the mark of 124.30 is playing the role of a strong resistance.


    The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.


    The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    We believe the decrease will be continued now. The first target is the level 123.50. the next target is the level of 122.40.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  5. #245
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    14.08.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The US dollar got under strong pressure on its main opponents’ part this week it had fallen against the euro, the pound and the yen. The reason was the optimism decline about the US rapid rate hike amid the Chinese yuan decline that continued to fall after its devaluation.


    The pair EUR/USD raised slightly amid the European stock exchanges sales. Investors closed their long positions on the equity markets and transferred it to the bond market which supported demand for the euro. After a decrease the pair grew by the end of the trades.


    By the end of the day the pair GBP / USD had increased amid the oil prices stabilization. The US Energy Department has reported the crude oil reserves reduction for the third consecutive week that contributed to the Brent brand consolidation. After an increase the pound also consolidated.


    The rapidly growing opinions about the US rapid rate hike illusory prospects drove down the pair dollar / yen. The Japanese currency strengthened in the last session against the US dollar. However, the US dollar was able to neutralize some of the losses by the end of the trades with the changes support in the US government debt market where the "Treasuries" prices declined slightly after the initial growth. However, the pair closed the yesterday’s trades closed with the pair’s decrease.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    According to the July final report the consumer price index increased by 0.2%. A month earlier the index value has decreased by 0.1%. These figures coincide with the analysts’ forecast. The France consumer price index decreased by 0.4% in July compared with the previous month after a decline by 0.1% a month earlier. These figures coincide with the analysts’ forecasts.


    According to the forecasts, the US jobless claims had to remain unchanged and fix 270 thousand claims. The data came out at the level of 274 thousand.


    The upward trend reversed towards the correction. The correctional price reduction was on the low volumes. The pair fell below the support level of 1.1150, but then it increased again.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1150. After breaking 1.1150 the buyers may go to 1.1260.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The «UK housing prices balance indicator by RICS» rose more than expected for the last month. According to the report prepared by the British Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), the indicator (given to the seasonal fluctuations) was 44% compared with 40% the previous month. Experts expected the rate growth for the last month to 42%.


    The United States provided the retail sales important data in July and the number of initial jobless claims. The retail sales data in July increased by 0,6% and the initial jobless claims came out less by 4 000 the forecasted median.


    Buyers have broken through and consolidated above the level of 1.5550. The level breakthrough was on the low volumes, but it opened the way for the resistance level of 1.5670. Then the pair rebounded downwards and formed a consolidation.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The upward bounce potential target are 1.5670, 1.5775.




    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The Japan economic showed the machinery and equipment orders reduction by 7.9% m/m in June while the strongest decline was forecasted - by 6.5% m/m. However, it did not affect the market.


    We did not expect the US retail sales publication better than the consensus forecast. The initial jobless claims report was expected unchanged at the level of 270K. The release showed 274K.


    The pair USD/JPY is showing a technical recovery from the minimum when the dollar turned downwards and fell against other major currencies. However, the trades are below the key resistance of 125.50.


    The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00.


    The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    If the price fixates below the support 125.50, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 123.50 and 122.40.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The dollar index has fallen amid the Treasury bond yields sharp decline in connection with speculations, concerning the China measures on the yuan devaluation decline that will lead to the «deflation exports" that will force the Fed to postpone interest rates increase at least until December. According to the data, the Switzerland import and producer price index weakened by -0.1% m/m in June to -0.3% m/m in July and from -6.1% y/y to -6.4% y/y.


    Investors focused their attention on the jobless claims report which is expected to reach the level of 270,000 but the data showed a growth to 274,000.


    The continued price consolidation below the resistance level of 0.9850 was followed by an active decline by more than 200 points. The prices declined to the support near 0.9750. then the pair rebounded upwards and broke through this level upwards.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9960.


    The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    The approach to the level of 0.9540 may lead to a price rebound upwards.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  6. #246
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    18.08.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    There was a multidirectional movement in the currency market. The chief troublemaker was the China Central Bank, it did not give any reason for the emotions surge and set the daily yuan fixing against the dollar almost without changes compared with the previous day, it has made it clear that the bank keeps to its stabilization promises.


    By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD had decreased amid the weak France, Germany and the Eurozone GDP data. The Eurozone and its major countries GDP assessment showed a growth, but it was worse than forecasted. The euro was supported by the Greece policy information plan.


    the pair GBP/USD had increased amid the UK and the US negative bond yields decline. In addition, the impression was caused by the UK controversial employment report somewhat blunted and the pound rose up against the US dollar in the news absence that can add negativity. However the pair’s growth was short-term and the pair fell by the end of the day.


    By the end of the day the pair USD/JPY had decreased amid the investors escape from the carry trade transactions which supported the demand for the yen as a funding currency. The Japan stock market has declined that slightly increased interest to the yen, the US shares increase allowed the dollar only to neutralize some of the losses.



    [img]http://savepic.su/6058396.jpg[/img]


    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The EU published its June trade balance. The data came out at the level of 26.4B.


    The German 10-year bond yields are declining relative to their US, UK and Australian counterparts, making European assets less attractive to investors.


    The resistance level of 1.1150 was tested twice last week. The repeated level of 1.1130 testing was followed by the active prices decline with the following bullish trend reversal. The pair is trading around the support level of 1.1050.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    The approach to the level of 1.1050 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 1.1150, 1.1260.


    [img]http://savepic.net/7173622.jpg[/img]


    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The June UK weak labor market raise doubts on the monetary tightening prospects by the Bank of England in 2016. The UK unemployment rate in the second quarter rose up by 0.1% while the US unemployment rate has decreased by 0.2%.


    The September USA rate hike expectations are intensified amid the positive economic data. In addition, the dollar is supported by the oil prices decline.


    The resistance level of 1.5670 testing was followed by the pair rebound downwards.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    We may expect the consolidation around the support level of 1.5550 further on we expect a growth to 1.5670, 1.5775.


    [img]http://savepic.net/7152118.jpg[/img]


    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The second quarter Japan GDP preliminary data showed -0.4% q/q vs. 1.1% q/q in the first quarter and the forecast was -0.5% q/q. These messages did not evoke any emotions in the market.


    On Wednesday the Japan foreign trade assessment will be presented - it is expected the exports increase and the imports reduction which is able to bring the trade balance deficit to the minimum.


    The level of 124.30 breakthrough was followed by the reversal level testing. Now this mark acts as a strong support where the continuous consolidation was formed.


    The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00.


    The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    Currently, the price is trading above the support level of 124.30. If the pair breaks it we expect the decrease to 123.50.


    [img]http://savepic.net/7203081.jpg[/img]


    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.


    https://www.fortfs.com/en][/url]

  7. #247
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    19.08.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The US dollar enjoyed a moderate demand - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trade at the mark of 96.83. By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD had decreased amid the Brent oil decrease which in its turn reduced the euro area inflation expectations. The pair GBP/USD had decreased by the end of the day amid the UK and the US bond yields increase. The pair USD/JPY has strengthened after the Japan GDP weak data output. The economic growth fell by 0.4% in the second quarter.


    There was important statistics published. The UK consumer price inflation rose up by 0.1% in July compared to 0.0% in June and it was forecasted 0.0%. The United States published the building permits volume report for July at the level of 1.119 M (the previous value was 1.337M; it was forecasted 1.232M).


    Investors should pay attention to the fact that the situation with the US federal budget deficit continues to improve year by year. The United States are fully committed to the budget deficit reduction. By the end of the financial year 2014/2015 is one month and a half. Over the past ten months the US budget deficit (seasonally correcting) has been $428 billion from October to July inclusively against $460 billion in the same period last year (-7% y/y). It is a supporting factor for the US dollar.



    [img]http://savepic.net/7149949.jpg[/img]


    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The euro fell against the US dollar. Earlier there was the US and Germany 10-year bond yields reduction which is a positive factor for the single European currency. It was indicated the price moderate growth as the oil "bearish" trend does not allow the EUR/USD "bulls" to rise too high.


    Sellers have rebounded from the resistance level of 1.1150, thus opening the way for the level of 1.1050 testing. The downward correction is not supported by volumes and it is developing amid the weak volatility. However the bears broke through the level of 1.1050 downwards.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.


    The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to consider short positions with the first target - 1.0925. After fixing below the first target, the level 1.0790 will become the next one. Then the pair can decrease to the level of 1.0670.


    [img]http://savepic.net/7186812.jpg[/img]


    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The main event of the day was the UK CPI publication. The inflation is traditionally indicator №1 for the currency market and in this regard, there was an increased volatility.


    More than a month the resistance level of 1.5670 has been holding back buyers. The price tested this level again on the yesterday’s trades.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 1.5775, 1.5970.


    [img]http://savepic.net/7180668.jpg[/img]


    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The course of the trade is determined by the world leading stock exchanges sentiments. The growth leaders were the Nasdaq high-tech index that indicates the investors’ risk appetite. In such circumstances, there appeared the demand for the carry trade transactions through the Japanese yen as a funding currency.


    The July building permits weak reports in the US was reflected in the national currency. According to the data, instead of the expected reduction to 1.232M the index decreased to 1.119M, the previous data is 1.337M.


    The pair USD/JPY has been consolidating around the support level of 124.30 for a long time.


    The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00.


    The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    If the price fixates below the support 123.40, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 122.40.


    [img]http://savepic.net/7174524.jpg[/img]


    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.


    https://www.fortfs.com/en][/url]

  8. #248
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    21.08.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The Fed minutes put pressure on the US dollar. The dollar was sold against all of its major opponents which led to its decrease at the end of the day. The meeting minutes have not convinced investors that interest rates increase would be in September. The protocol content that noted fears, concerning the dollar growth, can have a negative impact on the inflation, an economic growth and foreign trade; it has significantly increased the doubts that the Fed will have to tighten policy in the short term. However, the pressure on the dollar was moderate. Investors focused their attention on the number of initial jobless claims week data which was expected with slight reduction up to 272 thousand from 274 thousand. In fact the jobless claims number increased by 4 thousand to 277 thousand.


    The pair EUR/USD had strengthened after the US inflation moderately negative data. The July base rate remained at the level of 1.8%, still traders had expected it at the level of 1.9%.


    By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had symbolically strengthened. The low oil prices held back bulls from the active offensive.


    The world leading stock markets sales continued to put pressure on the pair USD/JPY which at the end of the day decreased.



    [img]http://savepic.net/7146606.jpg[/img]


    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The German 10-year government bond yields are declining relative to its US and the UK counterparts that indicate the European assets low investment appeal. The United States published the jobless claims report, which was expected with a slight reduction - up to 272 thousand from 274 thousand. The data showed an increase up to 277 thousand.


    The support level of 1.1050 rebound sent the downward correction upwards. The immediate growth target was the resistance level of 1.1150 that was broken upwards.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1420.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1260. After breaking 1.1260 the buyers may go to 1.1420.


    [img]http://savepic.net/7177313.jpg[/img]


    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The UK retail sales rose up in July – it is a clear sign that the consumer spending will continue to stimulate economic growth in the third quarter. The National Statistics Office said on Thursday that retail sales amounted to 0.1% m/m and 4.2% y/y in July. Meanwhile, the US published the initial jobless claims. The initial jobless claims number became more than 4 thousand having increased to 277 thousand.


    There was formed the short- term consolidation above the mark of 1.5670 that is playing the role of a strong support after its breakthrough, besides there was this level the short-term breakthrough.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5775, the next one is 1.5950.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    The approach to the level of 1.5670 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 1.5775, 1.5950.


    [img]http://savepic.net/7172193.jpg[/img]


    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The China instability with the oil prices sharp decline contributed to the US stock market sales. Against this background, it was expected the Tokyo stock market negative trend which will contribute to demand for the yen as a funding currency. Investors' attention was also directed to the initial jobless claims. According to the US Labor Department the initial jobless claims number became more than 4 thousand having increased to 277 thousand.


    The long-term price consolidation was below the strong resistance level of 124.30 that was followed by the prices rebound downwards and the support level of 123.50 breakthrough.


    The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.30.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    If the price fixates below the support 122.40, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 121.60.


    [img]http://savepic.net/7162977.jpg[/img]


    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The dollar fell considerably against the Swiss franc after the FOMC minutes publication somewhat reduced speculations about the September rate hike. The traders’ attention is directed to the initial jobless claims week report. The data showed an increase up to 277 thousand. According to the previous month revised data, the Switzerland trade surplus was 3,741 million francs compared with 3509 billion in July.


    Bears broke through the support level of 0.9650.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9460. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9650, the next one is at 0.9750.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to short with the first target – 0.9540. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the levels of 0.9370 and 0.9280.


    [img]http://savepic.net/7167073.jpg[/img]


    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.


    https://www.fortfs.com/en][/url]

  9. #249
    ValdisTF
    [

    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    24.08.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The US dollar was sold off along the entire market, still the greatest its loss was against the euro and the yen. Obviously, the US Central Bank statements convinced investors that the September policy tightening is unlikely to happen and there are arguments to close positions that were opened earlier on the expectations, relating to the US interest rates growth.


    The Euro zone positive news supported the pair EUR/USD. The Germany producer price index exceeded expectations, demonstrating the zero change in July on the month basis and compared to the previous year the rate reduction was -1.3%. In addition, last week the European Commission approved the financial aid third program first tranche to Greece from the planned 86 billion euros, planned for three years.


    During the day the pair GBP/USD was trading in a flat amid the oil market "bearish" sentiment as well as the UK retail sales moderately positive statistics: the July growth was 0.1% m/m while it was expected + 0.4% m/m.


    The Japanese currency has considerably strengthened its position against the dollar amid the latter major currencies decrease as the Fed is unlikely to change the interest rates in September. The yen was supported by the government bond yields and the stock market indices decrease as well.



    [img]http://savepic.net/7207914.jpg[/img]


    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The German consumers economic expectations have fallen for the third consecutive month to 16.6 points from 18.4 points in July, having added the GfK that despite the optimism decline; consumers are still waiting for the European economy growth. Meanwhile, the US and the Germany government securities credit spreads reduced yesterday which is a positive factor for the euro.


    The upward trend continues its strengthening, having broken through the strong resistance levels of 1.1150 and 1.1260 on its way, now the price is trading above the latter level.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1420, the next one is at 1.1530.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    The approach to the level of 1.1260 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 1.1420, 1.1530.


    [img]http://savepic.net/7194602.jpg[/img]


    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The UK government bond yields are declining relative to its US and Germany counterparts, making the British assets low attractive for investors.


    Sellers tried to return the price below the support level of 1.5670, but without the subsequent breakthrough. There was formed a short-term consolidation above this level and there is a chance for the rebound upwards.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5775, the next one is 1.5950.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The buyers need to break above 1.5775 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.5950 will be opened after this breakthrough.


    [img]http://savepic.net/7198698.jpg[/img]


    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The China stock market volatility is reflected in the Asia, Europe and the US equity markets which is a negative factor for the pair. Investors do not have "risk appetite" and against this background, we see the carry trade transactions closure and demand for the Japanese yen as a funding currency.


    After the support level of 123.50 breakthrough there was another strong support level of 122.40 breakthrough.


    The price is finding the first support at 121.60, the next one is at 120.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 122.40, the next one is at 123.50.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 121.60, 120.40.


    [img]http://savepic.net/7187434.jpg[/img]


    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    Switzerland presented the trade balance that is the payments balance largest component. The index is: 3.741V 3.509V against the earlier forecast of 2.600V. The index that is above expectations indicates the bullish market.


    The pair USD/CHF broke through the level of 0.9540. This level breakthrough has opened the way to the support area of 0.9460 that was tested.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9460, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9650.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to short with the first target – 0.9370. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9280.


    [img]http://savepic.net/7185386.jpg[/img]


    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.


    https://www.fortfs.com/en][/url]

  10. #250
    ValdisTF


    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    25.08.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The market is more and more confident that the policy tightening is not to be in September, but, moreover, it will happen in December or even in the early 2016. It caused the US dollar decline by more than 150 points against the euro and about 140 points against the yen. The pound neither decreased nor increased against the US dollar and neutrally closed the trade on the opening prices.


    Yesterday by the end of the day the pair EUR/USD had strengthened amid the German government bonds yields relative to their US and the UK counterparts. The euro bulls can be supported by the euro area economic data, presented by the manufacturing and the European bloc service sectors activity index preliminary estimates.


    The pair GBP/USD was in a flat of 1.5670 -1.5715 amid the oil market "bearish" sentiment. The UK economic data have shown the state finances improvement. The pair increased by the end of the trades.


    The Japanese stock market decline put pressure on the pair USD/JPY which by the end of the day had decreased. In addition, the yen growth was supported by the US stock market decline and the US "treasuries" decrease.



    [img]http://savepic.net/7207483.jpg[/img]


    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    Investors are massively closing the carry trade operations and go to the funding currency that is the euro and the Japanese yen. Now investors choose these two currencies as they have high liquidity and low interest rates. In addition, the German government bond yields rose up relative to their US and the UK counterparts last week that increases the investments attractiveness into the European assets and will support demand for the single European currency.


    Buyers raised the price upwards, breaking through the strong resistance levels of 1.1420 and 1.1530 on its way. The resistance level of 1.1710 was tested then the pair rebounded downwards and closed he trades around the level of 1.1590. The trade volumes are in the increased zone.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.1530, the next one is 1.1420. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1590, the next one is at 1.1650.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.1650, the next one is 1.1710.


    [img]http://savepic.net/7176763.jpg[/img]


    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    On the one hand, the UK energy sector and, on the other hand, demand for the US dollar depends on the Brent crude oil dynamics. The USA data s as well as the crude oil reserves increases. The Brent shows the downward trend continuation.


    Buyers were able to break through and consolidate above the resistance level of 1.5670. However, after bears attempted to break through the level of 1.5670 downwards with the downward correction. Then the pair increased and tested the level of 1.5775.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5775, the next one is 1.5950.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The pair is close to the strong resistance level of 1.5775. If the pair breaks it we expect the growth to 1.5950.


    [img]http://savepic.net/7163451.jpg[/img]


    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    Investors are escaping from the "risk assets" that will support the demand for the Japanese yen as a funding currency. Now we expect the "bearish" sentiment against the US dollar on the bond market: the US 10-year government bond yields are declining against the Japanese counterparts which is a positive factor for the yen.


    After the support level of 120.40 breakthrough there was another strong support level of 119.20 break. The two levels breakthroughs were on the increased volumes, sellers are gaining strength.


    The price is finding the first support at 118.40, the next one is at 117.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    We suppose the pair will go to 117.80 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 117.00.


    [img]http://savepic.net/7167547.jpg[/img]




    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.


    https://www.fortfs.com/en][/url]

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