"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


13.07.2015


Fundamental analysis


There was the risky assets strong recovery at the end of the last week. The oil prices rebound helped the traders to distract from the uncertainty Greek pressing problems that immediately affected the pair EUR/USD dynamics: quotations recorded the growth.


The pair GBP/USD has increased amid the UK bond yields increase relative to their US and Germany counterparts.


By the end of the day the pair USD/JPY had increased amid the "risky assets" demand. The upward trend in the world's leading stock markets contributed to the carry trade transactions increase.


After the London trades closure all investors' attention was focused on the US Federal Reserve chairman speech. On the one hand, the net exports reduction amid the US revaluation and low wage growth, on the other hand, pointed to the lack of Janet Yellen "hawkish" views. As we expected, Janet Yellen did not say anything new. She noted that the economy’s dynamic is indeterminate and the Fed will evaluate the conditions at each meeting.





Technical analysis


Euro (EUR)


General overview


There was published the Germany trade balance release that is very encouraging. The net exports are growing quite confident and there is marked their increase in the second quarter. As the trade balance has an important multiplier effect - we expect positive trends on the euro zone labor market.


Buyers tried to break through above the resistance of 1.1150. The buyer failed to break this level and the price returned below it.


The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.


There is a non-confirmed and a wael buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


Trading recommendations


We suppose the pair will go to 1.1150 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.1260.





Pound (GBP)


General overview


The UK National Statistical Office published the May trade balance report. This week the industrial production release indicates that this sector has developed immunity to the pound revaluation against the euro.


Having broken through the support level of 1.5390, the downward trend line went into the prolonged consolidation. Then the thrice grew and the level of 1.5460 was broken though. After the resistance level of 1.5550 testing the pair rebounded downwards.


The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5670.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


Trading recommendations


The pair is close to the strong support level of 1.5460. If the pair breaks it we expect the decrease to 1.5390.





Yen (JPY)


General overview


Investors have again "risk appetite" and in the light of this we expect the bullish sentiment. The Old World stock exchanges finish the trades in the "green zone". The banking and the energy sectors were again the leaders in the US market share and in this regard, traders can continue to build carry trade positions.


Buyers are correcting the price from the support level of 120.40. Its corrective growth was on the lower volumes. The level of 123.50 is a strong resistance for this pair.


The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.30.


The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.


The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting


Trading recommendations


If the price fixates above the resistance level of 123.50, it may continue the upward trend in the short term. The potential target is 124.30.





Franc (CHF)


General overview


The dollar remains within its former range, however, it reduced the number of its achievements when the data publication said that the jobless claims number have increased by 15,000 to 297,000.


According to the IMF estimates, the global economic growth in 2015 is expected at the level of 3.3% against 3.5% and the growth forecast for 2016 remained at the level of 3.8% against 3.1% in April. The reason for its decline was the "temporary weakness" forecast in the first quarter.


The price is finding the first support at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9280. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9750.


The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross’.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


Trading recommendations


We advise to short with the first target - 0.9370. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9280.





*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


14.07.2015


Fundamental analysis


The uncertainty around Greece was all last week. EU summit and the Eurogroup meeting continued almost all weekend, but the specific outcome appeared only on Monday. Greece had to compromise and now the parliament must approve the reforms package in exchange for a bailout from the European Union.


The EUR/USD increased amid the positive "the Greek issue" expectations last week. The Greek government has announced that it is ready to offer a new anti-crisis plan which creditors should make." After the agreement with Greek has been reached, the European currency declined sharply.


The pair GBP/USD enjoyed a certain demand. The British currency was supported after the May UK trade balance release. However, the pound decreased amid the dollar’s strengthening.


There was a "bullish" sentiment with the USD/JPY. This is not surprising as the global stock markets perked up after the positive news about the "Greek debt" situation. As a result we had the demand for risky assets.





Technical analysis


Euro (EUR)


General overview


Currency market wins back the creditors’ “Greek debt” decision. Despite the various differences between the parties were still able to reach a consensus, which is a positive factor for the euro. There has been a moderate price increase. The upward trend was also observed on the European stock market as the financial risks were mitigated. However, after it became known that Greece has made concessions to the creditors the pair sharply declined


There was the resistance of 1.1050 breakthrough last week. The breakthrough came in the second times and allowed buyers to deploy a downward trend upward. Also they tested the strong resistance level of 1.1150. The price rebounded downwards from this level and broke down the support level of 1.1050.


The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.


There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


Trading recommendations


The upward bounce potential target are 1.1050, 1.1150.





Pound (GBP)


General overview


The last week the May UK positive trade balance release allow us to count on the economic growth acceleration in the second quarter which may support the demand for the British currency. Britain and the United States did not publish important macroeconomic statistics. In this regard, attention should be paid to the debt market dynamics.


The three-day upward correction having formed from the support level of 1.5390 enabled buyers to break the level of 1.5550. There was a price rebound downwards from this level.


The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5670.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.


Trading recommendations


We expect the 1.5550 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.5670, further then towards 1.5775.





Yen (JPY)


General overview


The course of trading is determined by the world's leading stock exchanges mood. The positive decision of the Greek problem increased the demand for risk and in this regard the upward trend will be continued. Institutional investors continue to increase transactions on operations carry trade where the Japanese yen is a funding currency.


The price has been correcting to 123.50 for the fourth time in the past six weeks, acting as a resistance. The mark of 123.50 test is occurred on the reduced volume.


The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.30.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.


Trading recommendations


The pair can grow to the resistance level of 123.50. After breaking 123.50 the buyers may go to 124.30.





*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


15.07.2015


Fundamental analysis


The multi-week negotiations between the Greek government and international lenders have been finally ended with a consensus. The country remains in the euro zone and will receive a long-awaited financial assistance. Athens will be allocated more than 80 billion euros over three years. In exchange, the Tsipras' government will reform the pension system and labor markets.


There was increased volatility in the Forex market. The EUR/USD fell after long positions profit taking when it became known that the Greece crisis is solved.


The GBP/USD showed growth then as traders took profits amid the oil market bearish sentiment.


The positive decision of the "Greek problem" promoted the demand for risky assets in the world, that supported the USD/JPY. Nevertheless, the pair fell by the end of the day.





Technical analysis


Euro (EUR)


General overview


The index ZEW release has been published that has been showing a negative trend for the two months. There is an instability around Greece the last 1.5 months and this fact does not support the growth optimism in the German business community. The index came out with the data 29,7 that is less then 31,5 last month.


Bears fully control "black gold" market. Brent oil confidently entrenched below the psychological level of $ 60 per barrel.


The support levels of 1.1150 and 1.1050 break held against the backdrop of high volume - that is a good signal for the medium-term bearish trend continuation.


The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.


The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


Trading recommendations


The pair is close to the strong support. If the pair breaks it we expect the decrease to 0.0790.





Pound (GBP)


General overview


The sterling strengthened amid the BoE chief Mark Carney’s statements is more likely to raise the rates


The June UK CPI was published. The income has been increased that indicates an increase in consumer spending and ultimately inflation. The gasoline prices have been growing throughout the second quarter which also indicates an increase in CPI. The index came out on the level of 0,0%.


The support level of 1.5460 short-term test was accompanied by an active pound growth against the US dollar. The resistance level of 1.5550 was broken upwards.


The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.


There is a non-confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


Trading recommendations


We recommend going long with the first target – 1.5670. When the price consolidates above the first target it may go to the level 1.5775.





Yen (JPY)


General overview


In the lack of important macroeconomic statistics the pair's trading was determined by the stock and debt markets dynamics. We are seeing demand for "risky assets" amid the Greece and creditors agreement that will help to increase the carry trade operations with the Japanese yen as a funding currency.


The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.30.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


Trading recommendations


The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 123.50, 124.30.





*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


16.07.2015


Fundamental analysis


The main positive related with Greece has been already played out. Now, traders gradually become aware of what is the price of the agreement. The country is faced with the necessity of hard and painful reforms which are unlikely to please the public. There are reports about the civil servants strikes in the country. Now everything will depend on the government's ability to convey the entire population of the need for the reform. The important news became the Yellen's speech where she said that the rate increase could be expected this year.


The EUR/USD was traded in a flat amid the mixed news background. The euro zone and the US alternately disappointed the market with weak macroeconomic statistics. After the J. Yellen’s speech the dollar strengthened and the pair fell.


Mark Carney has rightly become the main week beginning newsmaker. The rising interest rates moment is getting closer - stated the head of the Bank of England, which caused the rapid growth of the British currency. At the end of the day the pair GBP/USD increased.


The pair USD/JPY spent in the positive sentiment last trading day. Earlier traders partly fixed long positions profits considering current levels less attractive to long, based on the continuation of the uptrend. However the news supported the dollar and the pair increased.





Technical analysis


Euro (EUR)


General overview


The published euro zone macroeconomic data did not clearly add optimism to "bulls". The ZEW business conditions indicator has been showing a negative trend for the third month in a row, falling in July to its lowest level in seven months. The industrial production index also went into the negative territory for the end of May.


The euro/dollar decreased amid J. Yellen’s speech.


There was the previous minimum update. The level of 1.0925 testing came amid low volume.


The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


Trading recommendations


We suppose the pair will go to 1.0925 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.0790.





Pound (GBP)


General overview


National Office of Statistics has published the May UK labor market release. The Consumer Confidence Gfk indicator signaled that we should not expect strong data. This fact was confirmed by the CPI measure which remained unchanged by the end of June. The head of the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said that "the moment of rising interest rates is getting closer." The pound slightly decreased on the yesterday trades.


The second time buyers touched the resistance 1.5550. The pair tested the level of 1.5670 and rebounded downwards.


The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


Trading recommendations


The buyers need to break above 1.5670 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.5775 will be opened after this breakthrough.





Yen (JPY)


General overview


The Bank of Japan announced its meeting results regarding the monetary policy and, in this regard. Bank of Japan noted the positive trend in foreign trade, as well as the households expenditure. However, there is a negative trend in the manufacturing sector.


Four daily US dollar growth against the Japanese yen faced the resistance at 123.50. The pair broke this level on the yesterday’s trades.


The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


Trading recommendations


The pair is going upwards. The bulls’ target is the level 124.30.





*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


17.07.2015


Fundamental analysis


The political and the US economy statistics news supported the dollar. The US currency rose against the euro, the yen, and against the British pound. The greenback purchases were started after J.Yellen's speech in the Congress USA. She confirmed that the regulator is approaching to the monetary policy tightening and the key interest rates growth in the current year.


According to the US Labor Department the initial jobless claims number became less than 15 thousand having fallen to 218 thousand.


On the yesterday’s trades, the EUR/USD lost some points amid the US Federal Reserve head stated that the regulator is set to raise the rates this year. The GBP/USD fell after the negative labor market release. The unemployment rate rose to 0.1%, prompting long positions profit-taking. The pair USD/JPY increased amid the "risky assets" demand, as well as BoJ the negative inflation outlook.





Technical analysis


Euro (EUR)


General overview


The traders' attention was focused on the Greece debt problems in the beginning of the week. Now, the investors' attention is directed to the Mario Draghi's speech and the ECB meeting results. There was the Fed's head press conference on Thursday. The ECB kept the interest rates unchanged at 0.05%.


Sellers broke the support level of 1.0925 that opened the way to the support level of 1.0790. The price is consolidating above the support level 1.0790 now.


The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


Trading recommendations


We expect the 1.0790 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 1.0670, further then towards 1.0550.





Pound (GBP)


General overview


The unemployment rate in Britain increased by 0.1% at the end of May. The core inflation is at 0.8%, the unemployment rate is at 5.6%. We can forget about the rate increase for a while with such statistics.


The Bank of England Governor Mark Carney's made his speech yesterday still there was no reaction at the market after his speech.


The short-term resistance level of 1.5670 stopped the upward pound trend. The level test has led to the downward correction formation that is aimed to support level of 1.5550.


The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


Trading recommendations


The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 1.5670, 1.5775.





Yen (JPY)


General overview


We do not believe in strong yen sales now. The Bank of Japan lowered its inflation forecast for the financial years 2015-2017 and in this regard the Japanese yen looks rather vulnerable now.


Buyers have failed to break through and gain stay above the strong resistance level of 123.50 for the third time. The level breakthrough comes amid low volumes. Currently, the price is consolidating above 123.50 which already plays a strong supporting role.


The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.


Trading recommendations


The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 124.30, 125.50.





Franc (CHF)


General overview


The Swiss franc lost the position Swiss currency fell to nearly 3-month low of 0.9553 against the US dollar. The retail trade turnover fell in May in Switzerland, showing the preliminary results of the Federal Statistical Office report. The turnover in real terms fell by 1.8% in May compared to the preceding year, for the fifth month in a row, and after a reduction of 0.1% in April.


The USD/CHF broke through the resistance at 0.9540.


The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


Trading recommendations


We advise to long with the first target - 0.9750.





*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


20.07.2015


Fundamental analysis


The pair EUR/USD decreased at the end of the last week amid the commodity market sales and the pair EUR/GBP quotations decrease.


The pair GBP/USD was traded in a narrow range. Earlier the pair decreased amid the US jobless claims moderately positive statistics as well as the US and the UK bond yields increase.


The pair USD/JPY has finished the trading day in the "green zone". Demand for the "risky assets" still supports bulls.


The US dollar is also going through hard times. Last week the Fed chairman Janet Yellen hinted that the rate hike would be this year. However, the specifics in terms of the rate hike possible timing traders still have not received. As a result, the statement impact on the dollar was minimal.





Technical analysis


Euro (EUR)


General overview


If any factor leads to the undesirable monetary policy tightening, the price stability will substantially worsen. "The European Central Bank Governing Council will use all available tools", - says the ECB president Mario Draghi.


"Economic conditions" will likely justify the rate hike at some point this year," - said D. Yelllen, speaking in Congress.


Comparing the ECB and the Fed comments, we can come to the conclusion that the market still will have bullish sentiments towards the US dollar.


Bears brought the price closer to the first obstacle on the way downwards that is the level of 1.0925. The decrease continued started after breaking the mark of 1.0925.


The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


Trading recommendations


The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.0790 and 1.0670.





Pound (GBP)


General overview


Despite the UK inflation and the labor market negative macroeconomic statistics which we received last week - the British pound avoided sales and stabilized around the 56th figure. There are two key factors that support demand for the pound. Firstly, the pair EUR/GBP quotations reduction amid the single European currency weakness. Secondly, the debt market positive dynamics.


The mark 1.5670 continues to demonstrate its strength in the resistance status. The bulls' attempt to break through this barrier was not successful.


The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.


Trading recommendations


We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.5670, the next one is the level of 1.5775.





Yen (JPY)


General overview


There was the bullish sentiments predominance within the pair. Traders continue to act out the Bank of Japan negative inflation forecast (Inflation indicator №1 for the currency market) and in this regard the Japanese yen is under pressure. Demand for the "risky assets" is still quite high which contributes to the carry trade transactions increase through the Japanese yen as a funding currency.


The resistance at the level of 123.50 was broken through and now the price is close to the new resistance level of 124.30.


The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.


Trading recommendations


We suppose the pair will go to 124.30 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 125.50.





Franc (CHF)


General overview


The dollar rose against other major currencies. Last week the dollar index reached the seven week high after the labor market solid data have led to the expectations increase about the Fed raising interest rates before the end of 2015.


The price is finding the first support at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9750.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upwards movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


Trading recommendations


We advise to long with the first target - 0.9750. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.





*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


21.07.2015


Fundamental analysis


The June USA inflation indicators were published last Friday. The main CPI index growth rate slowed to 0.3% m/m and accelerated to 0.1% y/y vs. 0.4% m/m and 0.0% y/y in May. This basic inflation level registered dynamics exactly in line with expectations (+ 0.2% m/m and 1.8% y/y). Obviously, the US price pressure is not clearly growing at the rate that would require the interest rates sharp increase, so the macro statistics has remained virtually unnoticed by the bulls within the dollar.


Yesterday the pair EUR/USD slightly corrected. Earlier the pair decreased. Traders sold the euro after the US inflation moderately positive data.


During the day the pair GBP/USD was trading in a flat. The pair EUR/GBP sales saved the British pound from the bears' "onslaught". However, the pair slightly fell.


After a slight growth during the day the pair USD/JPY was trading in a narrow flat amid the long positions profit taking in the world leading stock markets which restrains the US dollar quotations growth.





Technical analysis


Euro (EUR)


General overview


There was not published any important macroeconomic statistics. The single European currency has been under pressure for the last three trading days and we expect some short positions profit taking. However, we cannot count on the euro significant growth.


Last week the ECB President Mario Draghi said that inflation would remain low in the short term and we may expect a moderate growth only at the end of the year. Low inflation is traditionally a negative factor for the currency.


Having broken the strong support level of 1.0925, sellers lowered the price by only 100 points. The low volatility indicates towards the imminent upward correction. An additional signal for the upward correction formation is in favor of divergence volumes.


The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


Trading recommendations


The price is likely to go to the resistance level of 1.0925.





Pound (GBP)


General overview


After a slight decrease there was a flat amid the UK and the US important macroeconomic statistics. On the one hand, the British pound could get support from the bond market as well as the pair EUR / GBP. The UK 10-year government securities are growing against the US Treasuries and the German bond yields which contribute to the British pound demand.


The British pound is consolidating towards the side levels of 1.5670 - 1.5550. There was the level of 1.5550 testing.


The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.


Trading recommendations


The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.5670. After breaking 1.5670 the buyers may go to 1.5775.





Yen (JPY)


General overview


Yesterday all Japan banks were closed for a public holiday and in this regard there was a sluggish trade. Given the fact that on Friday the world leading stock markets were closed in the negative area - there was a slight correction within the pair dollar / yen amid the profit taking on the carry trade transactions.


Having reaching the resistance level of 124.30, the price has formed a short-term consolidation. There is the volumes divergence amid the downward correction formation.


The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.


Trading recommendations


The buyers need to break above 125.50 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 127.00 will be opened after this breakthrough.





*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


22.07.2015


Fundamental analysis


The fact that Greece paid some of its debts had no effect on the market as it was fairly predictable. If we look at the picture from a broader perspective, it is clear that the words "the need to restructure" or even "the debt cancellation" have been recently heard too often. It is unclear where the new negotiations round on the financial assistance program will lead us. However, we can say with some confidence that it will be no worse period for the euro. The main negative factor is already found in the price and under favorable circumstances we can see the euro bears' enthusiasm growth. The dollar’s index decreased against the majors by the end of the day.


The pair EUR/USD was traded in the flat amid the US and Eurozone important macroeconomic statistics publication lack. The pair closed the trades with the euro growth.


The pair GBP/USD was traded in a flat. Earlier the pound had decreased amid the UK and the US negative bond yields increase.




The pair USD/JPY had increased amid the "risky assets" demand. However, the pair sharply decreased by the end of the day.





Technical analysis


Euro (EUR)


General overview


The euro zone and the United States did not publish any important macroeconomic releases and in this regard the debt dynamics and the commodity market were in the center of our attention. It should be noted that the German 10-year bond yields continue to decline relative to their US and the UK counterparts that is a "bearish" factor for the single European currency. However, the euro bulls were able to seize the initiative.


Now there is a short-term consolidation above the support level of 1.0790. Then the pair rebounded upwards and the resistance level of 1.1150 was broken through.


The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting


Trading recommendations


The potential decrease target is the support level of 1.0790.





Pound (GBP)


General overview


The British currency is in a flat of 1.5537 -1.5674 and in the short term we expect this range breakthrough. Fundamental factors indicate that we will see the downward trend development. Last week we received the UK and the US inflation data and its dynamics indicates the presence of demand for the US dollar besides it slightly weakened.


Buyers have not been able to break through below the support level of 1.5550 for a long time. All attempts were followed by the consolidation formation with the further rebound.


The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.


Trading recommendations


The approach to the level of 1.5550 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.5460, 1.5390.





Yen (JPY)


General overview


After a long weekend Japanese banks began their work and in this regard, there was a slight volatility surge. It should be noted that the upward trend was stopped. On Monday there were significant gold sales which positively affected the world leading stock exchanges. When the gold fell there was a demand for markets' assets as investors saw the "risk appetite" growth.


After the level of 124.30 short-term break through the pair rebounded downwards.


The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


Trading recommendations


We expect the 124.30 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 125.50.





*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


23.07.2015


Fundamental analysis


There were two unexpected events in the currency market. Firstly, the pair euro/dollar suddenly showed its intent to recover from the lows and almost immediately gained 100 points. Secondly, the pair dollar/yen steady increase came to an end and quotes also rose up by nearly 100 points - but downwards. The reason is simple: the dollar bulls have decided to take profit, the last week its size was substantial as the US dollar took completely its advantage, expecting the Fed rate hike. It is important to note that it happened amid the practically empty macroeconomic calendar.


The pair EUR/USD had increased amid the short positions profit taking as well as the oil quotations moderate growth. However by the end of the day the pair fell again.


During the day the pair GBP/USD was trading at the levels of 1.5550 - 1.5670 amid the pair EUR/GBP quotations growth which are holding back the British pound.


The pair USD/JPY had increased amid the carry trade transactions closure which contributed to the Japanese yen demand as a funding currency. Nevertheless, the pair increased by the end of the day.





Technical analysis


Euro (EUR)


General overview


The euro sentiments were determined by the debt market dynamics which is now clearly on the "bears" side. There were the US secondary market housing sales published. The sales increased to 5,49 millions.


The short-term price consolidation at the support level of 1.0790 was followed by the upward rebound. The rebound was at the low volumes, but it allowed buyers to breakthrough and consolidate above the resistance level of 1.0925. The level of 1.0925 breakthrough was short-term and the pair fell below this level.


The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


Trading recommendations


We may expect towards the growth to 1.0925 and 1.1050 further on we expect a fall.





Pound (GBP)


General overview


There was the Bank of England monetary policy last meeting minutes published which traditionally causes the volatility spike. The monetary regulator meeting took place on Thursday, 9 July and this time we received quite contradictory macroeconomic statistics.


It is noted the average wage increase in the United Kingdom which is a positive factor for the inflation. The payments balance release for the first quarter points out to the strong negative effect of the British pound revaluation.


The downward rebound, formed after the support level of 1.5550 testing looks quite weak. Volumes are in reduced zone and the pair did not exit the range formed between the levels of 1.5550 and 1.5670.


The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.


There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.


Trading recommendations


We expect the 1.5670 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 1.5775.





Yen (JPY)


General overview


The quotations decrease which we have seen is a correctional movement – traders partly took profits on the long positions after the long upward trend. It should also be noted that this correction does not look like the US dollar massive sales. The correction was also observed in the US stock market. By the end of the day the pair increased.


The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


Trading recommendations


If the price fixates above the resistance level of 124.30, it may continue the upward trend in the short term. The potential target is 125.50.





*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


24.07.2015


Fundamental analysis


The dollar index basket (USDX) had increased. The pair EUR/USD had decreased amid the oil market "bearish" trend. Nevertheless, the pair increased by the end of the day.


On the contrary, the pair GBP/USD had grown amid the Bank of England moderately positive minutes where the GDP second and the third quarter growth estimates were increased. The US Energy Department reported the crude oil inventories increase which would contribute to the quotations and will have a negative impact on the British pound as the UK is an exporter of hydrocarbons to the European Union. It should also be noted that there is a negative trend throughout the commodity market that will support the US currency. The pair fell by the end of the trades.


The day the pair USD/JPY had increased amid the June US secondary market housing sales positive release. The sales rose up by 3.2% in June compared to the previous month and it occurred despite the mortgage interest rates growth. American consumers feel confident enough, just willing to buy housing in spite of the credit growth. Then the pair consolidated.


According to the US Labor Department the initial jobless claims number became less than 26 thousand having fallen to 255 thousand. It is the minimum since 1973.





Technical analysis


Euro (EUR)


General overview


We should pay attention to the commodity and bond market dynamics amid the important macroeconomic statistics lack. The US Energy Department release pointed out to the crude oil reserves growth which puts pressure on the "black gold" quotations. Against this background we expect the Brent quotations decrease which will have a positive impact on the US currency as the oil price is denominated in dollars.


The euro two-day growth against the US dollar was stopped at the resistance level of 1.0925. The level testing was amid the low volumes and was followed by the breakthrough upwards.


The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.


The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.


Trading recommendations


The pair is going upwards. The bulls’ targets are the levels of 1.1050 and 1.1150.





Pound (GBP)


General overview


The MPC last meeting minutes publication confirmed the fundamental mixed background. On the one hand, the wage growth is a positive factor for the medium-term inflation expectations. On the other hand, it was noted that the pound growth can negatively affect the British economy.


The National Statistics Office published the UK retail sales report for June. The retail sales were 0.2% m / m + 4.0% y / y.


Buyers were unable to reach the resistance level of 1.5670. the pair decreased and broke through the support level of 1.5550.


The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5670.


The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”.


The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.


Trading recommendations


The sellers need to break below 1.5460 for a steady decrease. The way to the mark 1.5390 will be opened after this breakthrough.





Yen (JPY)


General overview


Japan has published the June trade balance report. At its last monetary policy meeting the Bank of Japan pointed out to the weak economic growth in the second quarter as a whole and the exports decline in particular. The same trend confirms the Central Bank of Japan foreign exchange reserves reduction which has traditionally been strong in periods of the trade deficit increase.


Having rebounded from the resistance level of 124.30, the price fell and is consolidating.


The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.


There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.


Trading recommendations


After the support level of 123.50 breakthrough down the way to the support 122.40 will be opened.





Franc (CHF)


General overview


The Swiss franc strengthened slightly against the US currency amid the dollar decline.


The absence of important macroeconomic statistics has highlighted speculations on the interest rate differentials.


The price is finding the first support at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is decreasing.


Trading recommendations


We recommend going short with the first target - 0.9540. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 0.9370.





*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


27.07.2015


Fundamental analysis


At the end of the last week the pair EUR/USD increased amid the pair EUR/GBP growth and amid the UK weak macroeconomic statistics. Then the pair consolidated.


By the end of the day the pair GBP / USD had decreased after the June UK retail sales publication - the index decreased by 0.2%. The pound fell after the retail sales weak data output. The data were disappointing. They negated the British retailers' consortium and the British Industry Confederation earlier studies. In general the news is not good, but the consumer spending trend is still growing. In fact, the retail sales showed an increase by 4% y/y while consumer confidence is at the 15-year high, real wages rose up by almost 3% y/y while the employment continues to rise. So consumer spending is not in danger. On the contrary, the United States pleased traders with the positive jobless claims. However the pair pound/dollar slightly corrected.


During the day the pair USD/JPY was trading in a flat amid the world leading stock markets sales which hindered the US dollar's growth. Nevertheless the pair decreased by the end of the day.


After the US jobless claims publication we observed the commodity market sales which is also a positive factor for the US currency as the raw materials cost is denominated in dollars.





Technical analysis


Euro (EUR)


General overview


Markit Economics has presented the France and the Germany manufacturing sectors business climate data. The France industrial sector business climate will amount 49.6 in July, the Germany industrial sector business climate will amount 51.5.


There is the production orders growth in both economies amid the euro devaluation which increases the products competiveness abroad.


The euro is still correcting relative to the US dollar, breaking through the resistance level of 1.0925 upwards. The pair is consolidating above this level.


The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.


The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.


Trading recommendations


We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.1050. The next targets are the levels of 1.1150, 1.1260.





Pound (GBP)


General overview


The UK retail sales release indicates that the British prefer to save more than spend. Despite the strong population revenue growth – the June sales decreased by 0.2%. The consumer demand reduction is a negative factor for the state economic growth.


The resistance level of 1.5670 testing was followed by the active prices decrease by 160 points. The support level of 1.5550 was broken through which now acts as a resistance.


The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5670.


The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.


The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


Trading recommendations


If the price fixates below the resistance 1.5550, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 1.5460 and 1.5390.





Yen (JPY)


General overview


Last week Japan disappointed investors with the June trade balance weak data while the United States is pleased with the secondary market housing sales positive report as well as the jobless claims reduction.


The downward correction which began from the resistance level of 124.30 stopped at the support level of 123.50. The price came up to the level amid the low volumes and went into the prolonged consolidation and a slight decrease.


The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.


The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.


The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.


Trading recommendations


The sellers need to break below 123.50 for a steady downward trend. The way to the mark 122.40 will be opened after this breakthrough.





Franc (CHF)


General overview


Last week US jobless claims release was quite encouraging. The primary and the secondary jobless claims reduction points out to the labor market positive trends in particular and in the economy in general. Against this background, the Forex market will re-live expectations about the federal funds rate growth in September which will support the US dollar.


The price is finding the first support at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9850.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.


Trading recommendations


We recommend going long with the first target - 0.9750. When the price consolidates above the first target it may go to the level 0.9850.





*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


28.07.2015


Fundamental analysis


The US dollar was not able to strengthen its position against its main competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day at the mark of 96.56.


The pair EUR/USD had decreased despite the France and Germany PMI manufacturing and production sector negative macroeconomic statistics. Nevertheless the pair grew by the end of the day.


The pair GBP/USD was trading within the flat amid the UK bond yields decrease in relation to their US and Germany counterparts as well as the US new home sales weak data. However the pair increased on the yesterday’s trades.


The pair USD/JPY was trading in a flat amid the lack of demand for the "risky assets" as well as the US negative macroeconomic statistics. Nevertheless, the pair increased yesterday.


The US new housing market sales publication did not meet our forecasts: the transactions number amounted to only 482 thousand in June against the expected 546 million and 517 million in May. It has played the role of counterweight within the pair EUR/USD that put pressure not on the euro, but on the US dollar as well.





Technical analysis


Euro (EUR)


General overview


The last week euro zone and the United States economic data showed a clear divergence: the Eurozone consumer confidence index and the composite PMI weak releases amid the US real estate positive data and jobless claims reduction. Thus, there will be a steady demand for the US dollar in the short term.


The euro is recovering its positions against the US dollar. Its corrective growth is on the low volumes and has a target to test the resistance level of 1.1150.


The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


Trading recommendations


The approach to the level of 1.1150 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.1050, 1.0925, 1.0790.





Pound (GBP)


General overview


The downtrend changed to the upward movement. There are still active sales on the commodity market which is a positive factor for the US currency as the raw material assets cost is denominated in dollars. It should also be noted that the British currency traditionally negatively reacts to the oil bearish trend. Last week the Brent crude finished at the mark of $ 55 / barrel and the next stop will, possibly, be near the 53rd figure.


There was the resistance level of 1.5550 breakthrough upwards and trades closed at the level of 1.5572.


The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.


The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.


The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


Trading recommendations


After the trend line 101.85 breakthrough down the way to the support 101.50 will be opened. The resistance level of 1.5670 test is more likely to lead to the rebound downwards.





Yen (JPY)


General overview


We noted the "bearish" sentiments prevalence. The lack of demand for the "risky assets" contributed to the carry trade transactions closure that will cause demand for the Japanese yen. The negative trend is confirmed by the debt market: the US and Japan 10-year bond yields are reducing which is clearly at the "bears" hands.


There was the support level of 123.50 breakthrough which was followed by the very low volumes.


The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.30.


The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


Trading recommendations


We may expect the growth towards 123.50 further on we expect a fall to 122.40.





*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


29.07.2015


Fundamental analysis


By the end of the day the pair EUR / USD had increased amid the German 10-year bond yields relative to its US and the UK counterparts. The Germany data served as a powerful driver for the euro. The IFO Institute business sentiment index registered growth up to 108 points in July, exceeding expectations at the level of 107.5 and the June index around the level of 107.4. It was enough for the pair EUR/USD to get a powerful impulse and to start recovery from the recent lows.


By the end of the day the pair GBP / USD had strengthened despite the US durable goods orders positive macroeconomic statistics for June.


During the day the pair USD / JPY some growth amid the world stock markets sales which caused the carry trade transactions closure.


In June the US durable goods orders rose up by 3.4%, the index excluding transportation also rose up - by 0.8%. However, the main source of concern was the latest stock market crash in China where the Shanghai Composite has lost more than 8%. Traders believe that the China stock markets volatility can delay the US Federal Reserve possible rate hike as the situation is an additional threat to stability.





Technical analysis


Euro (EUR)


General overview


The main pair dynamics is determined by three factors: the bond market sentiments, the commodity market trend and the pair EUR / GBP dynamics.


There was the German 10-year bond yields growth on the debt market in relation to its US and UK competitors which supports some demand for the euro.


The Federal Reserve interest rate decision may affect the pair dynamics which will be published on Wednesday evening.


The upward correction within the pair euro / dollar consolidated its positions, breaking through on its way resistance at the level of 1.1050.


The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


Trading recommendations


The growth targets are 1.1150, 1.1260.





Pound (GBP)


General overview


Yesterday the main event was the second quarter UK GDP publication. The Bank of England pointed to an economic growth by 0.7% in its monetary policy last minutes. These data came out at the forecast level of 0.7% q / q and 2.6% y / y


The Federal Reserve interest rate decision can affect the pair dynamics which will be published on Wednesday evening.


The resistance level of 1.5550 could not stop buyers. The level breakthrough was on the low volumes and opened the way to the level of 1.5460 and 1.5390 testing.


The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.


The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.


The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


Trading recommendations


We expect a rebound. The levels of 1.5460, 1.5390 are the rebound targets.





Yen (JPY)


General overview


There was the investors' risk avoidance in financial markets (the world leading stock markets sales) which is a "bearish" factor for this pair. Investors closed the carry trade transactions which contributed to the Japanese yen demand as a funding currency.


The Federal Reserve interest rate decision may affect the pair’s dynamics which will be published on Wednesday evening.


Before reaching the support level of 122.80, the downward trend reversed in the short-term correction. The resulting correction is on the low volumes and is aimed at the resistance level of 123.50.


The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.30.


The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


Trading recommendations


After testing 123.50 we expect a consolidation. Then the price may go down. The downward targets are 122.40, 121.60.





*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


30.07.2015


Fundamental analysis


By the end of the day the pair EUR / USD had increased amid the long positions profit taking before ECB meeting. After another Chinese stock market collapse traders spread the rumors that the American central bank would not still raise interest rates. After the meeting results it was expected to hear something about new external risks to the US economy which would lead to the immediate dollar sales and the pair EUR / USD growth.


As a result the last ECB meeting confirmed its plans to change the rates this year that supported the dollar.


The pair GBP / USD had increased as well after the UK second quarter GDP publication. The final index is above the level of 0.7%.


During the day the pair USD / JPY was growing. On the one hand, "bulls" were supported by the “risky assets" demand. On the other hand, the Conference Board consumer confidence weak data put pressure on the US currency.





Technical analysis


Euro (EUR)


General overview


There was the debt and commodity markets stabilization after a high volatility. In this regard, it was expected that the pair euro / dollar would be trading a flat up to the FOMC meeting outcome announcement.


It was expected that the US Wednesday Federal Reserve meeting results would be a little different from the D. Yellen two week ago rhetoric. Then the FED chairman announced the monetary authorities intention to tighten monetary policy at any meeting this year. The yesterday’s ECB meeting supported the dollar as the committee confirmed its intentions to change the rates this year.


Having broken through the level of 1.1050 downwards the price.


The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The MACD is declining.


Trading recommendations


We believe in pair’s decrease. The first target is the level of 1.0925. The next one is 1.0790.





Pound (GBP)


General overview


The GBP / USD fundamental background is still mixed. Investors 'attention is directed to the June UK mortgage lending publication which was positive, exceeding analysts' forecasts. Above all, the market was waiting for the US Federal Reserve meeting results. It was expected to hear the same benchmarks that were announced by D. Yellen in Congress two weeks ago.


The trade is below the key resistance level of 1.5670. The price consolidation below the mark can lead to the short-term decline.


The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.


The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.


The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The indicator is growing.


Trading recommendations


If the price remains below 1.5670 the downward movement will be continued. The targets are 1.5550 and 1.5460. Shall the price break the level upwards and we will see the growth continuation.





Yen (JPY)


General overview


Japan has published the June retail trade release. The wage level is the most important indicator for determining the retail sector demand dynamics. It was expected the data within the forecasted medians, but the results exceeded forecasts by 0.9% instead of the projected 0.5% after the previous indicator by 3.0%.


The market was waiting for the US Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting results. Changes in rhetoric were not expected.




The lack of buyers’ support can lead to the strong price rebound from the resistance level of 123.50.


The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.


The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The MACD is growing.


Trading recommendations


We expect the growth. The growth targets are 124.30 and 124.70.





*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


31.07.2015


Fundamental analysis


Yesterday the US dollar was able to strengthen its position against its main competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day at the mark of 97.10. On Wednesday late in the evening there were announced the US Federal Reserve meeting results.


Monetary authorities have once again confirmed the labor market progress and they also noted the real estate market growth. It was also pointed out that inflation expectations have not changed compared to the last assessment and it is necessary to wait for more positive macroeconomic data to start the monetary policy tightening phase. At first it upset the market, but ultimately the US currency was set to buy again and the US dollar has strengthened relative to all of its main competitors.


The FOMC also pointed out that the federal funds rate first increase can happen in September. Against this background, the pair EUR / USD had decreased by 0.51% by the end of the day, the pair GBP / USD had declined by 0.03% and the pair USD / JPY had increased by 0.30%.





Technical analysis


Euro (EUR)


General overview


The dollar strengthened against the euro after the US Federal Reserve meeting results publication.


The jobless claims have unexpectedly grown to the seasonally adjusted 9,000 in Germany in July, it was reported a decline by 1000 in June, economists expected the unemployment decline by 5000 in July, and however, the labor market remains one of the strongest in the euro area. There was the second quarter US GDP report published. Investors focused their attention to the data that indicate the US jobless claims number.


The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.


There is a weak sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. If the price get below the Cloud we may get a sell signal.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The MACD is declining.


Trading recommendations


We believe in pair’s decrease. The first target 1.0925 is reached. The next one is 1.0790.





Pound (GBP)


General overview


Commodity market reacted with the quotations decrease on the US Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting results which is a negative factor for the British currency.


Investors focused their attention on the US GDP publication for the second quarter. The industrial production index which best determines this year business cycle dynamics in the second quarter showed a moderate growth. Investors' attention is directed to the initial jobless claims weekly report.


The resistance level of 1.5670 false breakthrough was followed by the prices active drop.


The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.


The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.


The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The indicator is decreasing.


Trading recommendations


If the price remains below 1.5670 the downward movement will be continued. The targets are 1.5550 and 1.5460.





Yen (JPY)


The US Federal Reserve meeting results supported the dollar as a result it has strengthened against the yen.


There was published the June industrial production data, we expected a weak report which would put pressure on the Japanese yen. However, the data came out better than expected 0.8% against 0.3% earlier it was-2.1%. Traders focused their attention on the second quarter US GDP release. The US initial jobless claims report is also considered by investors.


The strong resistance level of 123.50 breakthrough opened the way for another resistance level of 124.30 testing.


The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.


The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed upwards.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The MACD is growing.


Trading recommendations


We support the growth plan. The growth targets are 124.30 and 124.70.





Franc (CHF)


The dollar consolidated its position after the FOMC minutes publication where it was noted that the rate would be increased after the labor market continued growth. Following the meeting, the interest rate has remained within the 0.0% -0.25%.


Credit Suisse says that the Swiss National Bank losses could reach 50 billion francs in the first half of the year because of the exchange rate, gold and government bonds changes. According to the data publication, the Swiss KOF leading economic indicators rose up to 99.8 this month from 89.8 in June whose indicator was revised up from 89.7. Analysts had expected the index growth by 90.3 in July.


Buyers managed to strengthen the strong resistance level of 0.9650.


The price is finding the first support at 0.9650, the next one is at 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9760, the next one is at 0.9850.


The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The MACD is growing.


Trading recommendations


We expect the growth. The pair may rebound downwards to the level of 0.9650. After that the growth to 0.9850 will be continued.





*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


03.08.2015


Fundamental analysis


The US currency continued its winning streak - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day at the mark of 97.60.


The pair EUR / USD had decreased amid the Germany and Spain inflation slowdown last Friday.


During the day the pair GBP / USD was trading in a flat amid the UK bond yields moderate growth relative to its US and Germany counterparts.


The pair USD / JPY increased amid the "risky assets" demand at the end of the last week.


The last week US second quarter GDP data came out slightly worse than the consensus forecast, but we can consider it moderately positive. The personal consumption expenditures main index for the second quarter increased by 1.8% which exceeded the traders’ expectations. The Fed uses namely this indicator as the consumer activity benchmark.


In general, the US dollar continues to behave as if the Fed’s rate hike is actually a solution. We should remind that the Fed noted the labor market improvement, but it was not more aggressive than expected when it came to the Fed's rate hike timing.





Technical analysis


Euro (EUR)


General overview


We expect bearish sentiment prevalence within the pair EUR/USD. The Germany retail sales have decreased by 2.3% from May till June, corrected for the inflation and seasonal variations, still they increased by 5.1% compared to the previous year. Economists had forecasted that the monthly value would remain within the flat. However, the retail sales positive trend remains the same, private consumption will continue to support the European largest economy growth. It is expected that the German economy will expand by 1.8% this year and 2.0% in 2016.


A short-term correction was formed. The potential correction target is the resistance level of 1.1050.


The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.


There is a weak sell signal. The price is in the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. If the price gets below the Cloud we get a strong sell signal.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The MACD is declining.


Trading recommendations


We expect the decrease will be continued. The first target is 1.0925. The second one is 1.0790.





Pound (GBP)


General overview


During the day the British pound can show the quotations moderate growth. There was the UK securities bond market increase in relation to its US and Germany competitors. The UK and Germany bond yields once again exceeded the level of 131 bp which will put pressure on the pair EUR / GBP and support demand for the British currency against the US dollar.


According to the economic calendar, the UK Gfk consumer confidence index has fallen: 4 instead of 7, although it was expected 5.


For a long time the British pound has been trading below the strong resistance level of 1.5670. All attempts to break through above the level were followed by the prices rebound downwards.


The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The first resistance is at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.


The price is just above the Cloud. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.


The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The indicator is decreasing.


Trading recommendations


If the price remains below 1.5670 the downward movement will be continued. The targets are 1.5550 and 1.5460.





Yen (JPY)


General overview


The dollar was stable against the yen. Earlier the Japan data showed that household spending declined by 3.0% in June, confounding the projected decline by 0.5%, after the previous month increase by 2.4%. The data also showed that the Tokyo consumer price index rose up by 0.2% this month in line with the market expectations.


The maximum of 124.47 was updated, but bulls failed to consolidate above the level of 124.30 – there was a false breakthrough which led to the downward rebound.


The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.


The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen are directed upwards.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The MACD is decreasing.


Trading recommendations


The growth targets are 124.30 and 124.70. Shall the price fall it will go to 122.40.





Franc (CHF)


General overview


The market is consolidating. Some optimism inspires more or less clear picture in the United States. The Fed noted the labor market improvement, but it was not more aggressive than expected when it came to the Fed's rate hike timing. The US second quarter GDP data showed an increase by 2.3% q / q vs. 2.5% q / q. The separate report showed that initial jobless claims amounted to 267k vs. 270k.


The pair USD / CHF tested the level of 0.9700 / 10, then the correction has started and currently the pair is under pressure.


The price is finding the first support at 0.9650, the next one is at 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9760, the next one is at 0.9850.


The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The MACD is decreasing.


Trading recommendations


We expect the growth. The pair may rebound downwards to the level of 0.9650. After that the growth to 0.9850 will be continued.





*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


04.08.2015


Fundamental analysis


This week the US dollar is being traded without significant changes in anticipation of important macroeconomic statistics. Investors are waiting for the US labor market Friday's data. The labor costs record low index in the second quarter raised questions about the Fed key rate hike in September. Thus, the US labor costs index showed the lowest growth rate in the second quarter at the level of 0.2% well below the forecast by 0.7%.


Previously, the dollar was supported by the Federal Reserve two-day meeting. The Fed noted the labor market improvement, but it was not more aggressive than it was expected when it came to the Fed rate hike timing.


In addition, we expect the euro zone important data. Economists expect the official data that will be published next will point to the Germany manufacturing industry growth production, but its slowdown in France and Italy that shows divergence in the euro area economy. However the data in Italy came out showed a growth to 55,3 from 54,1. Nevertheless the pair euro/dollar closed the trades with a decreased.


The pair GBP/USD also decreased. Earlier the pound traded without significant changes in BoE's meeting anticipation on the coming Thursday. At the same time for the first time the central bank will announce the interest rates decision and will publish its meeting minutes and the UK economy new forecasts.


The yen declined against the dollar amid the general demand for the US currency and the interest decrease in safe assets because of the stock indices strengthening.





Technical analysis


Euro (EUR)


General overview


The euro was supported by the euro zone consumer inflation strong indicators. Thus, the EU consumer prices rose up by 0.2% y/y in July while the core index showed an increase by 0.9% y/y against the expected 0.2% and 0.8%, respectively. In addition, the unemployment rate remained at the mark of 11.1%.


Buyers tried to continue the upward trend, but they were stopped by the resistance near 1.1050. The level testing was followed by an active rebound downwards on the increased volume. The rebound from the level of 1.1050 has allowed customers to consolidate below this level.


The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.


There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


Trading recommendations


We suppose the pair will go to 1.0925 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.0790, 1.0670.





Pound (GBP)


General overview


The data publication has shown that approved applications for mortgage and consumer loans totaled 66.58K and £ 1.22 billion respectively.


The course has received previous support after the UK economy growth strong preliminary estimates. The second quarter data supported the trend set in the first quarter. So the UK economy showed a growth by 2.6% y/y and 0.7% q/q vs. 2.9% and 0.4% respectively in the previous quarter.


The resistance level of 1.5670 was tested for its strength last week. The false level testing was followed by the rebounds downwards. At the beginning of this level the pair decreased.


The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.


There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.


Trading recommendations


The approach to the level of 1.5550 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound target is the resistance level of 1.5670.





Yen (JPY)


General overview


The statistics in Japan showed that the retail sales have fallen for the third time this year -by 0.8% in June after the January and March decline. Analysts had forecasted decrease on average by 0.9%. The consumer spending weakness increases the risks for the Japanese economy, the manufacturing sector is experiencing hard times, taking into the exports weakness.


The upward trend within the Japanese yen has stopped for a short time at the resistance level of 124.30.


The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.


There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


Trading recommendations


The potential growth targets are the resistance levels: 124.30, 125.50.





*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


05.08.2015


Fundamental analysis


The beginning of the current week was relatively calm in the currency market. The dollar continued to strengthen against the major competitors, continuing to enjoy the support by the Fed rate hike expectations. However the dollar slightly weakened on the yesterday’s trades.


Earlier the pair EUR/USD once again came under pressure, at the same time there was not any problem with the local growth drivers. The July PMI manufacturing activity index in the euro zone countries was mostly positive while the region index exceeded expectations and amounted to 52.4 against the expected 52.2. But it was not enough to strengthen the single European currency. Nevertheless the pair slightly increased on Tuesday.


Earlier the dollar got a new reason to grow. The personal spending rose in June more than expected, reflecting a growth by 0.4% against the forecast at the level of 0.3%. At a time when traders are almost convinced in the Fed rates raising until the end of the year, it was enough to trigger a purchases wave.


The pair pound/dollar closed the trades with a growth and the pair dollar/yen was trading in a flat.





Technical analysis


Euro (EUR)


General overview


The euro fell amid the dollar growth in anticipation of the Friday US government employment publication. Investors expect the data to be strong and it may lead to move the forecasts, relating the interest rates growth by the Federal Reserve at an earlier date. However the pair slightly grew on Tuesday’s trades.


The trade within the pair euro/dollar looks lowly volatile. The price reduction is on the lower volumes and reached the strong support level of 1.0925. Then the pair rebounded upwards.


The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.


There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


Trading recommendations


The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.0925 and 1.0790.





Pound (GBP)


General overview


The Bank of England will announce its key interest rate decision on Thursday, the 6th of August and at the same time it will publish the meeting minute. Undoubtedly, the regulator tendency to increase the key rate will put upward pressure on the pair GBP/USD.


We can observe the pound decline against the US dollar amid the weak volatility and low volumes reduction. The price decline was close the strong support level of 1.5550. Then the pair showed an upward rebound.


The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.


There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.


Trading recommendations


The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.5775.





Yen (JPY)


General overview


The main driving force that influenced the dollar growth was the personal income and spending data which rose by 0.4% and 0.2% respectively while revenues have grown more than it was forecasted. The Americans incomes grow more than expenditures that indicates the consumption slowdown. This trend threatens the fact that inflation may remain low and investors wait for the Fed rate hikes. Nevertheless, investors regarded revenue growth as a signal for the consumption and inflation future growth.


The resistance level of 124.30 re-testing led to the upward trend reversal downwards then a consolidation was formed.


The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.


There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.


Trading recommendations


The buyers need to break above 124.30 for a steady growth.







*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


06.08.2015


Fundamental analysis


The market trades are rather sluggish in anticipation of new movement catalysts. The dollar keeps the overall positive mood ahead of the coming Friday labor market publication which may be defined in terms of the US interest rates timing and thus the US currency prospects.


The US currency was supported by the Federal Reserve System representative statement. The Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said the central bank may raise short-term interest rates next month.


The US issued the employment outside agricultural sector release from ADP. The data came lower than expected 215 thousand. The number of employees amounted to 185 thousand.


The euro fell amid the increased demand for the dollar. Greece reported that it planned to sign the bailout agreement until 18 August. Greece will carry out a regular payment to the ECB on 20 August and the same deadline for the third tranche agreement signing. The pair is trading in a flat after a decrease.


Earlier the pound fell amid the renewed speculation that the Fed can be tempted to increase the key rate in September. The pair pound/dollar slightly increased on the yesterday’s trades.


The pair USD/JPY has updated the highs and continues to maintain an optimistic tone with the overall demand for the dollar.





Technical analysis


Euro (EUR)


General overview


The euro fell amid the US dollar in the run-up to the US government Friday's employment publication. Investors expect the data to be strong that may lead to move the Federal Reserve interest rates hike forecasts at an earlier date.


The euro two-week rise against the US dollar has stopped and we can observe the support of 1.0925 breakthrough. Then the pair formed a consolidation and tested this level which is the resistance now.


The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


Trading recommendations


The approach to the level of 1.0925 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is e the support level of 1.0790.





Pound (GBP)


General overview


The latest publication showed the UK construction sector slowdown. The business activity index in the sector fell to 57.1 in July whereas it previously set the four-month high at the level of 58.1. Analysts expected the growth rate to 58.5.


The British pound corrective growth, formed at the level of 1.5460 gave a signal for the downward rebound. The signal served the support level of 1.5550 testing. However the pair rebounded upwards.


The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5775.


There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.


Trading recommendations


We may expect the growth towards 1.5670 further on we expect a fall to 1.5550, 1.5460.





Yen (JPY)


General overview


The dollar showed growth on the increased expectations that in the context of the US economy improvements the Fed will resort to the interest rates increase in the coming months, possibly as early as September.


The correction was short after the resistance level of 124.30 retesting. Before reaching the support level of 123.50, buyers have reversed the formed correction up to the resistance level of 124.30 and broke it upwards.


The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


Trading recommendations


We expect the 125.50 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 127.00.





*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

[ValdisTF]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


07.08.2015


Fundamental analysis


This week the currency spent most of the trades in a lull. It is not surprising as we are approaching the end of the week where we expect the most significant releases and during the previous days traders just saved their strength.


The pair EUR/USD has recovered, responding to the US ADP data that did not meet their expectations. It turned out that it was created only 185 thousand jobs in the US private sector against the expected 215 thousand in July and 229 thousand in June. It undermined confidence in the dollar, especially in anticipation of the more labor market publication that is the NFP report. After all, if the employment level is unsatisfactory, it can erase all expectations about the possible Fed rate hike.


As a result, the dollar faced a sales wave against most rivals, but not for a long time. Shortly after the ADP report there was published the ISM US services sector activity index which in July rose up to 60.3 from the June's 56.0. It was quite enough to initiate the US dollar recovery against its major rivals. However, the dollar failed to maintain the leadership and strengthened only against the pound by the end of the day.


The Bank of England released its quarterly inflation report, the monetary policy last meeting minutes and delivered the current rate verdict. The BoE kept the interest rates unchanged at 0.50%.


According to the US Labor Department the initial jobless claims number became more than 3 thousand having reached to 270 thousand.





Technical analysis


Euro (EUR)


General overview


The Germany industrial orders rose up by 2.0% m/m and 7.2% y/y. The German industry rapid growth is connected with the cheap euro and also with the European continuing producer prices decline, though it does not eliminate the deflation threat.


The corrective rebound was formed which allowed buyers to test the resistance of 1.0925.


The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.


There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


Trading recommendations


The downward bounce potential target is 1.0790.





Pound (GBP)


General overview


The Bank of England has published the quarterly inflation forecast and the last monetary policy meeting minutes, our expectations lie in the fact that two committee members voted for a rate hike. Also the Bank of England governor Mark Carney made his speech. Later NIESR released the UK GDP forecast for July. The BoE kept the interest rates unchanged at 0.50%.


For a long time the price has been consolidating in the side corridor levels: 1.5670 - 1.5550. The resistance level of 1.5670 was repeatedly tested for durability, but without a subsequent breakthrough. The support level of 1.5550 was broken through. The price fixated under this level.


The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5670.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.


Trading recommendations


The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.5460, 1.5390.





Yen (JPY)


General overview


The US private sector new jobs insignificant increase data have supported the yen for a short time. However, the reports about the world largest non-manufacturing sector activity growth not only returned the pair to their original positions, but also raised it up to the new intraday high.


The long price consolidation below the resistance level of 124.30 was followed by a breakthrough. The breakthrough was on the high volume, it is highly probable the uptrend continuation.


The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


Trading recommendations


The approach to the level of 124.30 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 125.50, 127.00.





Franc (CHF)


General overview


The dollar maintained its optimism against the Swiss franc on Wednesday after the US non-manufacturing sector activity unexpectedly strong data. The ISM non-manufacturing sector activity index was 60.3 vs. 56.2 pp in July.


The price is finding the first support at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9540. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9850, the next one is at 0.9960.


There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


Trading recommendations


We advise to long with the first target - 0.9850. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9960.





*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.