"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


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  1. #181
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    27.04.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The US dollar was under pressure - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 97.43. The pair EUR/USD has demonstrated a growth despite the mixed news background. The Germany manufacturing sector business activity showed a decline to the level of 51.9 p while the US primary market housing sales decreased by 11.4%. As a result, the trading day the pair euro/dollar ended with the quotations growth.


    The pair GBP/USD also finished the day in the positive area despite the UK retail sales weak release. In March the index fell by 0.5% because of the wages decrease which is a negative factor for the economy, but traders ignored it and continued to build up long positions on the pair rebounds. By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had increased.


    After the quotations growth to 120.10 the pair USD/JPY remained under pressure and ended the trading day in the "red zone". The UK primary March market housing sales weak report with the achievement of the psychological level of 120.00 contributed to the downward trend development. By the end of the day, the pair dollar/yen had decreased.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The traders’ attention will be focused on the IFO institute publication. Taking into consideration the fact that the US and Germany negative bond yields are above 178 b. p – it will be difficult for bulls to break through the mark of 1.0925. We received the durable goods orders that are within the forecasted medians.


    Traders are waiting for the US Fed decision on April 29, concerning the monetary policy.


    Buyers have been able to break through above 1.0790 for the second time. The breakthrough was amid the increased volume.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    The buyers need to break above 1.0925 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.1050 will be opened after this breakthrough.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The British pound ignores the negative fundamental background that comes from the UK. Despite the Bank of England optimistic forecasts about the personal consumption growth amid the wages decrease - the retail sales official release for March indicates that consumers will retain their spending. Given the fact that the "black gold" market observed the upward trend continuation- during the day we expect a demand for the British pound.


    After the strong resistance level of 1.5015 breakthrough buyers continue to be active. The breakthrough was with the following price consolidation above 1.5100.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.5015. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    We suppose the pair will go to 1.5200 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.5300.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    We noted the corrective movement continuation in the Tokyo stock market. Investors continue to take profits on the long positions that cause demand for the Japanese yen. The US durable goods orders positive data did not provide any support to the US dollar. Bulls are inclined to update the historic high within the index S & P500 on the US stock market which will contribute to the carry trade transactions development through the Japanese yen.


    The price is finding the first support at 118.30, the next one is at 117.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.


    There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    After the support level of 118.30 breakthrough down the way to the support 117.50 will be opened.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    As it became known, the US new home sales totaled 0.481m in March against forecasted 0.513m. The manufacturing sector activity index by Markit reached 54.2 in April against forecasted 55.5.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9750, the next one is at 0.9950.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to long with the first target - 0.9750. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9950.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  2. #182
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    28.04.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The pair EUR/USD was in demand amid the energy prices growth. As the oil prices are denominated in the US dollar - their growth leads to the dollar decrease. As a result, the trading day ended with the quotations growth for the pair.


    The bullish sentiment dominated and in the pair GBP/USD. Traders continued to build up long positions, even though the US durable goods orders positive release which indicates the strong buyers’ presence in the market. By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had increased.


    The pair USD/JPY was trading different directed. The correction continuation in the Japanese stock market with the oil prices growth cheered bears to short. By the end of the day the pair dollar/yen had decreased after a slight growth.


    It should also be noted that the US 10-year bond yields failed to consolidate above the level of 2% last week which deprived bulls the strong trump card within the dollar. But we should not forget that this week the main event is the US RFU meeting on Wednesday 29 April and in this regard, traders will not rush with the positions opening.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    According to the Societe Generale experts’ research, the Germany unemployed number in April, presumably, fell by 12,000 after a decrease by 14,000 in March. It is expected that the unemployment rate will remain stable at the new historical low of 6.4%.


    Having broken through the resistance level of 1.0790, buyers continued the upward trend amid the increased volumes. Having faced the resistance at the mark of 1.0925, the price stopped for its consolidation.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    The price is likely to go to the support level of 1.0790.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The British Industry Confederation published the April industrial orders release. It showed a growth +1 from 0.


    The British pound strengthened by 4% for the last two trading weeks and in this regard, some traders can take profits on the long positions which will be a deterrent for the pair’s further growth.


    The level of 1.5200 breakthrough occurred towards the upward channel. Earlier this support played the role of a reference resistance.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5390.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.5300. After breaking 1.5300 the buyers may go to 1.5390.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    In the absence of Japan and the US important macroeconomic social statistics investors may focus their attention on the Japanese and the US stock market dynamics. S&P500 and Nasdaq set the fresh historical highs that amid the US economic slowdown can make some traders to fix the "longs".


    The corrective rebound was stopped and the pair fell again. The level of 119.20 short-term breakthrough was followed by a rebound downwards.


    The price is finding the first support at 118.30, the next one is at 117.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.


    There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    We do not exclude the falls to 118.30. After the support level of 118.30 breakthrough down the way to the support 117.50 will be opened.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  3. #183
    ValdisTF
    https://docs.google.com/a/tradefort....xKo/edit#gid=0
    [28.04.2015 23:55:56] Валдис Петрис: "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    29.04.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The US dollar was under pressure - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 96.86. There was not any important macroeconomic statistics the first part of the week. Traders won back the bond market dynamics where the US Treasury 10-year bond yields were moderately declining in relation to its main competitors during the day.


    The pair EUR/USD is still inactive but it was able to break through 1.0925. The market's attention is directed to the UK GDP data and to the situation in Greece. The pair remains in the red zone amid the dollar recovery after the US weak PMI services a weak decrease.


    Also the situation in Greece has put pressure on the pair. Athens needs to find about € 1 billion for the wages and pensions payment this week and it needs to find € 200 million for the IMF payment by the end of the week.


    The Japanese yen is growing which can cause the pair USD/JPY decline to 119.00 despite the Japan retail sales weak preliminary data. The US stocks reduction helped to preserve the yen stability. The dollar was declining along the entire market as the weak data allowed investors to push back once again the expected first Fed interest rate growth timing.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    We noted the bullish sentiment dominance. Firstly, the US CB consumer confidence report did not please traders with the positive data. The Michigan University surveys indicate that Americans are ready to increase private consumption. In this regard, the dollar did not get any support.


    The bond market dynamics also plays against bulls. The German 10-year bond yields are declining relative to their US, UK and Australia counterparts.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1050.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The UK national statistics office published the first quarter GDP preliminary data. The British pound growth with weak demand in the Old World has hit the UK trade balance. It should be noted that not only the manufacturing sector is showing slowdown.


    The March retail sales release also indicates that the wages decline makes Britons to save more than spend.


    The British pound has already been demonstrating the confident growth against the US dollar for the third week. The active price growth was followed by the resistance level permanent breakthroughs.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is at 1.5460.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.5300, 1.5200.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    We noted the moderately downward trend. It was difficult to expect from the Japan retail sales the positive data output amid the level of wages decline this year. The United States did not please traders with the consumer confidence positive release by the Conference Board.


    The price is finding the first support at 118.30, the next one is at 117.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    We suppose the pair will go to 118.30 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 117.50.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  4. #184
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    30.04.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The US dollar has already been demonstrating weakness for four trading days in a row - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished at the mark of 96.16 the last day. During the day the pair EUR/USD was in the demand after the US negative consumer confidence release by the Conference Board. By the end of the day the pair euro/dollar had increased.


    Despite the UK GDP first quarter weak release for the pair GBP/USD also showed an upward trend. The index came out at the level of 0.3% instead of the expected 0.5% that pointed out to the UK economic slowdown. Nevertheless, the overall negative trend within the dollar did not allow bears to strengthen its position. By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had increased.


    The US stock market upward trend did not allow the Japanese yen to strengthen its position. At the moment the pair USD/JPY quotations reached the level of 119.20, after that we saw a sharp decrease in the market and as a result the trading day ended with the quotations decrease.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The US Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting results were the main event of the yesterday. As the US unemployment rate is declining, it does not disturb the Fed – we should pay attention to inflation. The inflation expectations are still quite low.


    The upward trend is reaching the resistance level of 1.1150.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    We suppose the pair will go to 1.1050 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.0925.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    Traders continue to ignore the UK negative macroeconomic statistics which indicates the strong buyers’ presence. The Unites States published the GDP release for the first quarter. Most leading indicators point out to the weak economic growth and in this regard we expect the data output within the range of 0.7-1% which will put pressure on the US dollar.


    Trading volumes are in an increased zone, but they are gradually declining downwards. The rising trend indicates towards the formed correction that has not been confirmed yet.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5460, the next one is at 1.5550.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    The approach to the level of 1.5460 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.5300.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    As now we should not expect from the US Federal Reserve comments about the monetary policy tightening - the dollar will be under pressure against its major competitors. It should also be noted that the Federal Reserve gold foreign exchange reserves in the first quarter have significantly declined that indicates the payments negative balance strong increase and the main negative factor is the strong dollar.


    The formed strong consolidation is near the resistance level of 119.20.


    The price is finding the first support at 118.30, the next one is at 117.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    We suppose the pair will go to 118.30 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 117.50.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  5. #185
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    01.05.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The dollar strengthened against the pound and the yen. Earlier the US dollar was knocked out by the first quarter GDP negative release. The index came out at the level of 0.2% instead of the expected 1%. The personal consumption expenditures main index amounted to 0.9%.


    This report is negative as the economic growth slowdown is obvious. The dollar revaluation had a negative impact on the US economy. The US Federal Reserve announced its monetary policy meeting results. The FED did not give the market a signal about the first interest rate increase that pointed out to the personal consumption decrease and the exports weakness. The Fed called a low inflation a temporary phenomenon as well as the low GDP. Against this background, the US dollar was under pressure.


    We can expect the Old World moderately positive inflation data for April amid the euro area M-3 monetary aggregate growth as well as the Germany CPI increase. By the end of the day the pair euro/dollar had increased.


    Great Britain did not publish important statistics. Therefore, dynamic was fully caused by the technical factors and the previously formed sentiments. As a result the pound has decreased.


    The Bank of Japan monetary policy decision did not impress the market as the regulator has kept everything unchanged. The pair dollar/yen grew at the end of the trades.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The US first quarter GDP release disappointed traders with the weak data. Its weak growth by 0.2% is a result of the US dollar revaluation. It should also be noted the personal consumption expenditures reduction for the first quarter which is a negative factor for the inflation. The low inflation will deter the Fed from the monetary policy tightening.


    Buyers have broken through the resistance level of 1.0925 for the fourth time. The level breakthrough was amid the increased volume. The resistance levels of 1.1050 and 1.1150 were also broken upwards.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The approach to the level of 1.1150 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.1050, 1.0925.







    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    Despite the fact that the British pound has significantly strengthened for the last two weeks - the short-term uptrend is not complete yet. However we noted a downward rebound yesterday.


    The UK GDP for the first quarter came out higher than in the United States. The UK GDP quarterly growth has lagged behind the US for the last nine months, but now the differential is changed which will put some pressure on the US dollar.


    The British pound has been steadily strengthening against the US dollar for the third week. The prices growth is amid higher volumes which indicate the buyers increased interest to continue the bullish trend. The pair slightly corrected on the yesterday’s trades.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is at 1.5460.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    The trend is a down side. We expect the level of 1.5200 testing soon.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The Bank of Japan will not increase the QE program amid the oil prices growth. This factor will not put pressure on the Japanese yen. The US first quarter GDP negative report froze the bulls’ enthusiasm in global stock markets that will make some traders to fix part of the long. This factor will commit the carry trade transactions which will support the demand for the Japanese yen.


    The price has not been able to break through below the support level of 118.30 for the sixth week. The pair rebounded upwards and broke through the resistance level of 119.20.


    The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.


    There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    The pair can grow to the resistance level of 120.40. After breaking 120.40 the buyers may go to 121.60.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The Swiss franc has rapidly grown against the dollar after the US GDP weak report, according to the preliminary assessment, its growth amounted to + 0.2% in the first quarter against + 1.0% and 2.2% in the previous period.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9280. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9750.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to long with the first target - 0.9540. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.







    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  6. #186
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    04.05.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    There was a multidirectional trend on the Forex market. At the end of the day the pair EUR/USD decreased amid the German 10-year bond yields increase relative to its main competitors. The US manufacturing sector in the first quarter showed a significant decline and taking into account the new industrial orders decrease it is difficult to expect the data better than the forecasted medians. In this regard, the US dollar will not be able to get support and to compensate for some lost ground.


    On the contrary, after setting the fresh 2-month high of 1.5490 the pair GBP/USD was hit by the sales wave amid the long positions profit taking. The British pound can be further supported by the oil prices growth. On the other hand, the pair EUR/GBP cross-rate significant growth amid the Germany and the UK bond yields reduction may put pressure on the pound. By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had decreased.


    During the day the pair USD/JPY was in demand after the Bank of Japan negative economic forecasts publication. The GDP and inflation forecasts encouraged bulls for the long positions opening and against this background, the pair dollar / yen has increased.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The euro medium-term correction is still in force and bulls still open long positions on dips. The euro zone will not please traders with the important macroeconomic statistics and in this connection the traders’ attention will be focused on the US manufacturing sector business climate publication from the ISM.


    The manufacturing sector showed significant decline in the first quarter and taking into account the new industrial orders decrease it is difficult to expect the data better than the forecasted medians. In this regard, the US dollar will not be able to get support and to compensate for some lost ground.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    We may expect the fall towards 1.1150 and a consolidation further on we expect a growth





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The Great Britain and the United States published the manufacturing sector business climate reports. The industrial sector is showing clear signs of slowdown in both countries and we noted weak releases amid the new production orders low volume.


    On the one hand, the British pound can be further supported by the oil prices increase. On the other hand, the pair EUR/GBP cross-rate significant growth amid the Germany and the UK negative bond yields will put pressure on the pound.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.5015. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.


    There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    The approach to the level of 1.5100 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound target is the resistance level of 1.5200.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    Firstly, it is difficult to expect the United States ISM manufacturing index positive data. Secondly, sales on the US stock market after the GDP weak report publication for the first quarter may cause a wave of carry trade transactions and against this background the Japanese yen may receive additional support.


    Sellers have failed to break through the strong support level of 118.30. The pair rebounded upwards and broke through the resistance level.


    The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    We expect the 120.40 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 121.60.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The Fed information has frozen the bears’ enthusiasm within the dollar. Obviously, the market decided to take time out for a more detailed US Central Bank statements analysis that appeared after the FOMC meeting which indicated that the door for interest rates increase is still quite wide opened.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9280, the next one is at 0.9160. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9540.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to long with the first target - 0.9370. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9540.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  7. #187
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    05.05.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The US dollar was able to compensate some lost ground - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 95.38. When the pair EUR/USD reached the mark of 1.1290 it declined to the level of 1.1150. At the end of the day the pair euro/dollar had decreased.


    The pair GBP/USD is consolidating after it fell under the powerful sales wave amid the manufacturing sector PMI index negative macroeconomic release. The total index fell to its lowest level since September 2014. By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had decreased.


    The pair USD/JPY has ignored the ISM US manufacturing sector business activity weak release. Bulls actively built up long positions and against this background the trading day ended with the quotations growth.


    According to the ISM report, the US manufacturing sector economic activity continued to increase in April. However, the sector activity index has unexpectedly changed. The ISM noted that the PMI index was 51.5 in April, but it has not increased from the previous month.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    There was not any important macroeconomic statistics. We saw a rebound from the strong support level of 94.77 for three consecutive trading days within the dollar index (USDX) that indicates the strong buyers’ presence and the market possible reversal.


    The "Greek question" negotiations have tightened, but the Germany and Greece 10-year bond yields decreased significantly in April that point out to the risk reduction which is a positive factor for the euro.


    The resistance level 1.1260 has stopped the three-week euro uptrend. The pair rebounded from this level to the support level of 1.1150.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    The approach to the level of 1.1050 may lead to a price rebound upwards.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    After the Markit Economics manufacturing sector PMI index weak data traders sold the British pound which proves the strong buyers’ absence in the market. Investors have ignored the UK negative macroeconomic releases for the last two weeks and built up long positions. Yesterday there was a public holiday in the UK.


    The three-week pound strengthening against the US dollar stopped at the resistance level of 1.5460. The level testing was followed by a small consolidation with the following price rebound downwards. The rebound from the level was on the increased volume. The pair is testing the support level of 1.5100.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.5015. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.


    The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.


    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.5300.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    In the absence of Japan and the US important macroeconomic statistics investors will focus their attention on the stock and bond market dynamics. The Tokyo stock markets were closed due to the public holiday. On the contrary, there was the Japan and the US bond yields increase on the debt market which is a bullish factor for the pair.


    Buyers were able to break through and consolidate above the round resistance level of 119.20. At the moment the mark of 119.20 is the strong support.


    The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    We suppose the pair will go to 120.40 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 121.60.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  8. #188
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    06.05.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The market showed the calm trade amid the lack of important macroeconomic statistics as well as the UK and Japan public holidays. Traders do not hurry to open positions because all the important events of the week are ahead.


    The dollar correction stopped. The Eurozone and the US first manufacturing sector business climate reports pointed out to the differential shift in favor of the euro area in March and April. Secondly, the Germany and the US 10-year bond yields are declining which is a positive factor for the euro.


    Yesterday the world leading stock markets opened the trading week with the quotations growth that would contribute to the building up the carry trade position within the Japanese yen as a funding currency.


    The US Commerce Department published the report that showed the number of industrial production orders sharp increase by 2.1% in March after the revised decrease by 0.1% in February.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    We received the ISM releases that are important for the US dollar. Now the traders’ attention will be focused on the April labor market release on Friday May 8th. The Eurozone and the US manufacturing sector business climate reports point out to the differential shift in favor of the euro area in March and April.


    The prices decreased amid the low volatility and the low trading volumes. Having broken through the support level of 1.1150, sellers have opened the way to the strong support level of 1.1050. The strong support level of 1.1050 test was followed by the euro growth. The resistance level of 1.1150 was broken.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    We may expect the growth towards 1.1260 further on we expect a fall.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    Markit Economics published the construction sector business activity release. If the trade balance release does not cause the strong market reaction as the March report and the March data that include the GDP indicator for the first quarter, the ISM services sector business activity report can be a signal for the British pound mid-term correction completion in the case of positive data. The US dollar will be under pressure.


    The pound correction has moved into the long-term consolidation framework above the mark of 1.5100. The formed consolidation is amid the low volumes that is a signal for the reversal upwards. The pair increased and tested the resistance level of 1.5200.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.5015. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.


    The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement.


    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    The approach to the level of 1.5200 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the support level of 1.5015.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    For several days the Japanese yen has been the weakest asset among the five world leading currencies. Investors are inclined negatively towards the yen after the Bank of Japan lowered the GDP and inflation forecasts for 2015 and 2016 financial year.


    The world leading stock markets opened the trading week with the quotations growth that will contribute to the building up carry trade position within the Japanese yen as a funding currency.


    Until recently, the level of 119.20 was a strong resistance. Now it is no less the strong support. It should be noted that the mark of 120.40 was tested at the very low volumes. The pair rebounded downwards after this testing.


    The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    The bulls’ target is the level 120.40.







    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  9. #189
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    07.05.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The US dollar was under pressure against its major competitors. By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD had increased amid the energy prices growth. The Brent crude oil quotations set this week fresh maximum.


    Despite the April PMI index construction sector weak release the pair GBP/USD was also in demand during the day. The UK and the US negative bond yields reduction with black gold quotations increase encouraged bulls to long. By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had increased.


    By the end of the day the pair USD/JPY had decreased despite the US service sector business activity positive release from ISM. The index came out at the highest level since December 2014 that indicates the US economy recovery after recession in the first quarter.


    The ISM service sector employment rate for April has shown the maximum increase for the last six months. The four-week f jobless claims showed slight decrease which is also a positive factor for the labor market. However the ADP private sector employment release disappointed the market.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The euro zone will not please the traders with the important macroeconomic statistics and the traders’ attention will be drawn to the US data. The agency ADP issued the private sector employment release. Traders awaited the ADP positive data release which would support the US dollar. Still the release was a negative one that supported the euro and the pair grew.


    The debt and commodity market dynamics indicates the uptrend within the single European currency. The Brent crude oil breaks through this year new highs which is a negative factor for the dollar.


    The euro demand reversed towards the uptrend. The reversal came after the support level false breakthrough of 1.1150 amid the increased volume.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the resistance at 1.1450.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    The potential increase target is the resistance level of 1.1450.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The Center for Macroeconomic Research Markit Economics published the UK the service sector data. The manufacturing and construction sectors two previous reports disappointed investors with the weak figures. The pair EUR/GBP cross-rate dynamics also plays into the bears’ hands within the British pound.


    The rebound from the level of 1.5100 was followed on the increased volume and allowed buyers to break through the level of 1.5200.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5390.


    The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement.


    The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    We may expect the growth towards 1.5300 further on we expect a fall to 1.5200 and 1.5100.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The Japan banks were closed on the occasion of the state holiday. In this regard, we expect a low volatility during the Asian trading session. Investors will buy the quotations reduction amid the ADP negative data. The Australian bond yields demonstrate high growth that may contribute to the carry trade transactions increase. The pair AUD/JPY cross-rate had increased which is an excellent proof of that.


    The price consolidation above the resistance level of 119.20 was followed by the level of 120.40 testing and the latest decrease.


    The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.


    There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    The approach to the level of 119.20 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound target is the resistance level of 120.40.







    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  10. #190
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    08.05.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The pair EUR/USD was in demand amid the April ADP private sector employment weak data. The index came out at the level of 169 thousand which is the lowest level since January 2014. However, the pair euro/dollar had decreased.


    The GBP/USD has grown after the UK service sector business activity strong data publication. Then the pair consolidated. The final indicator came out at the mark of 59.5 that is the highest level since September 2014. This week the main attention within the pound will be paid to the UK elections which took place yesterday.


    After the ADP weak data the US stock market sales have increased pressure on the pair USD/JPY. Yesterday the Japan markets started to work after a long weekend this week. By the end of the day the pair had increased.


    Today we expect the report for which the market has been waiting the whole week: the US April Non-Farms release. In addition, the US will release the unemployment rate report. Both reports, along with the UK elections results will cause high volatility in the market.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The euro zone and the United States have disappointed traders with the negative macroeconomic releases. At the end of March the Old World retail sales decreased by 0.8% that point out to the weak domestic demand in the first quarter. The agency ADP has reported the new jobs low level in the private sector. Today, the US non-farm payrolls employment report will influence the market.


    Buyers have broken through and consolidated above 1.1260. The breakthrough was on the increased volume. Then the pair tested this level.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the resistance at 1.1450.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    The price is likely to go to the resistance level of 1.1450.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    Yesterday there were the UK Parliament elections. Their results will have a direct impact on the currency. There was observed the US and the UK 10-year negative bond yield increase on the debt market which is a bearish factor for the British pound.


    Having broken through the downward channel, buyers consolidated above 1.5200.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5390.


    The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Golden Cross”.


    The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.3665. After breaking 1.3665 the buyers may go to 1.3720.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    Japanese banks began their work after a long weekend. There was a bearish sentiment in the Tokyo stock market. In this regard, we noted the 119th figure testing followed by the rebound upwards. The Japanese yen with the US dollar is the market weakest currency asset and now we cannot count on the pair dollar/yen strong sales.


    The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    After the support level of 119.20 breakthrough down the way to the support 118.30 will be opened.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The Swiss franc rose against the dollar after the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank governor Kocherlakota said that the dollar had grown substantially the last year. In Kacherlakota’s opinion interest rates increase in 2015 is inappropriate.


    Meanwhile, today during his speech the Federal Reserve Chairman Jeanette Yellen said that low interest rates were necessary to achieve the objectives which would have a positive impact on the financial stability.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9160, the next one is at 0.9060. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9540.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to short with the first target - 0.9160. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9060.







    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  11. #191
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    11.05.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The US dollar was able to compensate some of the lost positions - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 94.71. The pair EUR/USD set up the maximum near the mark of 1.1391 in the morning after which there was the long positions profit-taking wave amid the US jobless claims positive report. As a result, the trading day ended with the quotations decrease.


    On the contrary, the pair GBP/USD set up the minimum at the level of 1.5162 in the morning after which there was quotations increase amid the pair EUR/GBP cross-rate decrease because of the long positions profit-taking. By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had increased.


    During the day the pair USD/JPY was in demand amid the US stock market positive trend. Nevertheless by the end of the day quotations had decreased.




    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The ADP and ISM leading indicators employment, published last week, have not identified the trend, taking into consideration the manufacturing sector employment decrease as well as the ADP data output at the level of 169 thousand.


    However, it is not necessary that the traders will actively sell the US dollar. Firstly, the labor force growth by 200 thousand per month is a positive factor for the US economy. Secondly, the debt and the commodity markets dynamics indicate the bullish sentiment predominance within the US dollar.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    The approach to the level of 1.1260 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.1150, 1.1050.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    We should pay attention to the UK March trade balance. Two key factors point out to the weak output: the pound revaluation against the euro as well as demand decline in the euro area (the euro zone is the main UK trading partner). If we pay attention to the seasonal dynamics- the March month was negative for exporters.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5460, the next one is at 1.5550.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The buyers need to fixate above 1.5460 for a steady growth. The way to the marks 1.5550 and 1.5670 in this case.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    We expect the side trend development within the range of 119.20- 120.40. On the one hand, the non-farm payrolls moderately positive data will have some pressure on the yen and we may expect the prices decrease. On the other hand, the oil market correction with the US and Japan bond yields increase will support demand for the US dollar and will not let it decline heavily.


    The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.


    There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    The pair can grow to the resistance level of 120.40. After breaking 120.40 the buyers may go to 121.60.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The pair dollar/franc will consolidate in the higher range after on Thursday it reached the three month low of 0.9060.


    The US non-farm employment data can influence on its dynamics. The pair is supported by the improved market sentiment towards the US dollar, the Switzerland negative interest rates and the intervention threat by the Swiss National Bank with the Swiss franc sales and within the growing pair euro/franc.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9280, the next one is at 0.9160. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9540.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to long with the first target - 0.9370. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9540.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  12. #192
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    12.05.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    There was a multidirectional trend in the Forex market yesterday. By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD had decreased amid the pair EUR/GBP quotations decline after the UK parliamentary elections results announcement.


    After two unsuccessful days the GBP/USD could finish the trades in the "green zone". Traders reacted positively to the conservatives’ victory in parliamentary elections. By the end of the day the pair pound/dollar quotations have increased.


    The USD/JPY has been trading in the flat near 119.65 -120.20. The US non-farm payrolls increased by 223 thousand in April. The unemployment rate fell to the level of 5.4%. Average earnings increased by 0.1% which is worse than traders had expected.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    In general, the USA unemployment data are good – the employment growth points out to the economy recovery after the first quarter recession.


    However, the inflationary component has disappointed the market. The average hourly earnings came below the traders’ expectations while the March figure was revised in the negative side. The two-year Treasury bond yields reacted to the release with a decrease by 10.8 basis points that indicate the low inflation expectations.


    Having broken through the intermediate support level of 1.1260, sellers continued the downward trend amid the increased trading volume.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.


    There is a confirmed and a weakbuy signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    After the trend line 1.1150 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.1050 will be opened.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The UK and the US bond yields fell by 11.8 basis points which indicate that the debt market participants reacted positively to the conservatives’ victory in parliamentary elections.


    The Bank of England announced the monetary policy meeting results: key interest rate has remained the same - 0.5%.


    The level of 1.5390 retesting was followed by the upward rebound and the previous high update of 1.5497. The resistance level of 1.5460 and 1.5550 were broken.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is at 1.5750.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    The potential decrease target is the support levels of 1.5390.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The April US labor market release supported the demand for the US stock market as traders received a signal that the FOMC would not rush to the monetary policy tightening. This factor is a positive one for the pair as it will contribute to demand for the carry trade transactions through the Japanese yen as a funding currency.


    In the absence of fundamental factors yesterday the trading day was held in the framework of the low volatility. There was formed a short-term consolidation near the level of 120.00 followed by a slight growth.


    The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.


    There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.


    Trading recommendations


    We suppose the pair will go to 120.40 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 121.60.







    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  13. #193
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    13.05.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    There was a multidirectional trend in the Forex market yesterday. By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD had increased amid the Germany and the US negative bond yields increase.


    By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had increased. Traders continue to buy the British pound amid the Conservative victory in the parliamentary elections. It should also be noted that the debt market dynamics does not support bulls - the UK 10-year bond yields are declining relative to their US and Germany counterparts and in this regard, after the next resistance level testing we expect profit-taking on the long positions that may cause a rebound.


    By the end of the day the pair USD/JPY had decreased. Earlier the pair grew amid the carry trade transactions increase through the Japanese yen as a funding currency. The day before we had observed a modest correction after the Friday's quotations strong rise and taking into account the fact that the Nasdaq showed its smallest decline - we may expect demand for the risky assets.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The situation around the Greek debt still excites the investors’ minds. As it was expected, Athens had to repay the debt to the IMF in the amount of approximately € 770 million. Taking into account the Germany and the Greece bond yields reduction we expect that the Greeks will be able to meet its obligations to international lenders. However, this factor will not support bulls.


    Firstly, we expect the interesting reports publication. Secondly, the debt market dynamics is on the bears’ side - the Germany and the US negative bond yields are increasing. Thirdly, the oil market has stabilized; we have not observed the upward movements for the last few days which would put pressure on the US dollar.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.


    There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    We suppose the pair will go to 1.1150 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.1050.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    In the morning we expect the British pound quotations growth. According to the British Industry Confederation February data, the manufacturing sector PMI index growth in March with the production orders increase allowed us to expect the moderately positive data output.


    The British pound is growing along the entire market - investors open long positions almost within all cross-rates, led by the pound. Taking into consideration that institutional investors prefer to keep positions for a long period of time – we may expect the upward trend continuation.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5775, the next one is at 1.5950.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.5775, the next one is 1.5950.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    During the day we expect the moderately upward trend and demand for the US stock market which will encourage bulls to long. The day before we had observed a modest correction after Friday's quotations strong rise and taking into account the fact that the Nasdaq showed the smallest decline - we can expect demand for the risky assets.


    The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.


    There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    The pair can grow to the resistance level of 120.40. After breaking 120.40 the buyers may go to 121.60.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  14. #194
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    14.05.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The US dollar is under pressure - the USDX finished the trading day at the mark of 94.51. By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD had increased amid the energy prices growth as well as the Germany and the US negative bond yields reduction.


    By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had increased amid the industrial production positive release. In March the index increased by 0.5% which can allow us to count on the first quarter GDP revision for the better. The UK short-term and long-term government bond yields can be the best indicator for the market sentiment determination within the pair pound/dollar. The spread has been increasing for the last two months that point out to the low market expectations regarding the monetary policy tightening.


    By the end of the day the pair USD/JPY had decreased amid the oil quotations growth which put pressure on the US dollar.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    We pay attention to the euro area first quarter positive GDP publication. The ECB soft monetary policy is starting to bear fruit. The euro low rate has increased the European products competitiveness outside the euro area which has grown the trade surplus. The export growth may lay a good foundation for the unemployment reduction and the consumer spending increase in the future.


    The United States published the retail sales report for April – the data remained unchanged. The correction from the resistance level of 1.1260 turned upwards - towards the current trend.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1675.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    The potential increase targets are two resistance level of: 1.1450 and 1.1675.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    We pay attention to the Bank of England inflation quarter report. On the one hand, the energy prices growth have increased the inflation expectations - the UK 10-year bond yields are now above the level of 2%. On the other hand, the low level of average earnings in the first quarter restrained inflation and the private consumption.


    As the soft monetary policy is carried out in periods of low inflation – we should not exclude positive comments. Also we should not forget about the pound revaluation against the euro.


    The uptrend has stopped for a short time below the intermediate resistance level of 1.5670. The price reached the level on the lower volumes. After the resistance level of 1.5670 breakthrough the level of 1.5775 was tested.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5775, the next one is at 1.5950.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    After the trend line 1.5775 breakthrough upwards the way to the resistance 1.5950 will be opened.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    We observe the Japan and the US negative bond yields strong increase on the bond market that will provide demand for the US dollar. The Australian bond yields are now higher the level of 3% which will enhance the carry trade transactions within the Japanese yen. Investors will form the cheap yen loans and direct them to the higher-yielding instruments purchases. Yesterday the pair AUD/JPY cross-rate increased by 1.1% which is the best proof of this trend.


    The price is finding the first support at 118.30, the next one is at 117.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 118.30 soon. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 117.50.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  15. #195
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    15.05.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    Yesterday the pair EUR/USD increased amid the US retail sales negative reports. Traders had expected its growth by 0.3%, but the final figure came out at the zero mark. The April US PPI report will not be able to provide strong support for the US dollar. In the first month of the second quarter, the US 10-year bond yields have grown by 10 basis points that indicate the inflation expectations moderate increase.


    Despite the Bank of England inflation negative report the pair GBP/USD still managed to finish the day in the positive territory amid the US retail sales weak data. By the end of the day quotations had increased.


    The US weak economic data cheered bears to short with the USD/JPY which by the end of the day had consolidated. The debt market dynamics is also now on the bears’ side - the Japan and the US negative bond yields reduction will support demand for the Japanese yen.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The US and the euro zone GDP differential has increased by 0.2% in the first quarter which will support the euro in the short term.


    The US retail sales moderately negative data indicate that now we should not wait for the private consumption strong increase which will contribute to the strong economic growth in the second quarter.


    Due to the level of 1.1260 breakthrough buyers opened the way to the maximum that is the resistance level of 1.1450.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1675.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    We suppose the pair will go to 1.1150 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.1050.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The Bank of England published its quarterly report which has lowered the GDP and inflation forecasts that also pointed out to the construction sector weakness and low investment that inhibit the labor productivity growth. Once again the monetary regulator noted that the strong pound (the pair EUR/GBP decline) had a negative impact on inflation.


    The British pound continues to trade towards the upward trend. There was the resistance level of 1.5775 testing.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5775, the next one is at 1.5950.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.5670, 1.5550.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    Despite the bullish sentiment predominance on the world leading stock exchanges as well as the carry trade transactions growth within the pair AUD/JPY – the Japanese yen is in demand within the context of the US dollar sales. The Japan and the US bond yields reduction will support the demand for the Japanese yen.


    Having not reached the last week maximum of 120.40, the upward trend reversed sharply downwards, breaking through the support level of 119.20. We observed the consolidation at this level.


    The price is finding the first support at 118.30, the next one is at 117.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The potential growth target is the resistance level of 120.40.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The Swiss franc could strengthen on Wednesday amid the dollar decline.


    The US dollar has suffered serious losses against all its major currencies after the unexpectedly US retail sales weak data publication. Retail sales amounted to + 0.0% in April while it was forecasted + 0.2%, but the sales excluding cars amounted to + 0.1% against + 0.5%.


    The price is finding the support at 0.9060. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9160, the next one is at 0.9280.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to long with the first target - 0.9280. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9370.







    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  16. #196
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    18.05.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The pair EUR/USD has been in the positive area for three trading days in a row. At this time the quotations growth was after the US April PPI weak data. The report points out that it is quite early to talk about the inflationary pressure growth in the world leading economy now.


    During the day the pair GBP/USD also showed more modest growth because of the EUR/GBP correction and a consolidation as well as the investors’ concerns about the Bank of England inflation and GDP forecasts.


    At the end of the day the pair USD/JPY has strengthened amid the US stock market strong growth as well as the US and Japan negative bond yields increase. The pair fell and closed the trades neutrally.


    It should also be noted that investors have negative attitude towards the US dollar and actively get rid of it – yesterday the dollar index basket (USDX) consolidated below the 94th figure. Still, we expect profit-taking on the long positions amid the US industrial production moderately positive data for April.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The German 10-year bond yields are growing relative to the US and the UK counterparts which may support the demand for the euro. The commodity market dynamics is also playing against the US dollar now. The commodities quotations growth has a negative impact on the dollar as the cost of raw materials was denominated in the US dollar during the dollar prices growth.


    Having broken through the strong resistance level of 1.1260, the price corrected to this level to check it for strength. Now this resistance is playing the role of a reference support now. Then the pair tested the resistance level of 1.1450.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1675.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen the Kijun-sen show aт upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    The buyers need to break above 1.1450 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.1675 will be opened after this breakthrough.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The UK 10-year bond yields are close to the level of 2% now which may support the demand for the pound. The average earnings growth and the oil market upward trend with the unemployment decline to 5.5% can allow us to count on inflation in the short term and these expectations are pushing the pair upwards.


    The British pound is actively strengthening against the US dollar. Almost without correction the price rose up sharply, having reached the level of 1.5775.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5775, the next one is at 1.5950.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The pair can grow. After breaking 1.5775 the buyers may go to 1.5950.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    Bullish sentiments in the US stock market with the US and Japan bond yields increase will support demand for the pair USD/JPY. On the other hand, investors sell the US dollar along the entire market which cannot allow us to count on the strong dollar growth.


    The price is finding the first support at 118.30, the next one is at 117.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.


    There is a non-confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    If the price fixates below the support 119.20, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 118.30 and 117.50.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    The dollar slightly strengthened its position against the franc after the published data showed that US initial jobless claims for the last week amounted to 264K against forecasted 273K. The index was near 15-years low that indicates the labor market positive trends.


    The price is finding the support at 0.9060. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9160, the next one is at 0.9280.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to short. When the pair consolidates below the level of 0.9160, we can open deals to the level of 0.9060.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  17. #197
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    19.05.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The US dollar was supported - the dollar index basket (USX) finished the trading day at the mark of 93.29. The pair EUR/USD increased after the US industrial production and consumer confidence weak macroeconomic statistics publication from the University of Michigan. At the end of the day the pair decreased.


    The pair GBP/USD finished the trading day in the negative territory - quotations declined amid the profit taking on the long positions after the eight- days’ quotations growth.


    The winner in the bears and the bulls’ dispute within the pair USD/JPY were the bulls. The upward trend in the world leading stock markets is supported by the dollar demand and at the moment quotations reached the mark of 119.95, but after the US negative reports the Japanese yen was able to recover lost ground. Then the pair grew again.


    Taking into account the US industrial production and consumer confidence negative macroeconomic statistics– we cannot count on the US dollar strong growth.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The Michigan University negative release suggests that Americans are inclined to save more than spend and this is a negative factor for the economy.


    In the light of this the US the Germany negative bond yields continued to decline which supports the demand for the euro. Moreover, the Germany and the UK bond yields also significantly declined which would contribute to the pair EUR/GBP cross-rate growth and may also support the euro against the dollar.


    The upward trend is still preserved despite the divergence formation on the trading volumes. Having broken through the resistance level of 1.1260, the price tested the level of 1.1450. Then the pair rebounded downwards.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1675.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1260, 1.1150





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    Great Britain and the United States will not please traders with the interesting macroeconomic releases. In view of the debt market negative dynamics (the UK and the US negative bond yields increase) it was noted the bearish sentiment predominance. At the same time the commodity market dynamics may put pressure on the US dollar as the commodity goods growth causes the dollar decline.


    Having tested the level of 1.5775, the British pound turned downwards towards correction. The support level of 1.5670 was broken.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is at 1.5775.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    After the trend line 1.5670 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.5550 will be opened. The upward bounce potential target is 1.5775.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    Japan has published the March machinery and equipment orders report: the base value amounted to + 2.9% for the month and + 2.6% for the year. The commodity market positive dynamics will put pressure on the US dollar.


    The pair tested the level of 119.20 and rebounded upwards.


    The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.


    There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    The approach to the level of 120.40 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 119.20, 118.30.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  18. #198
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    21.05.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The US dollar strengthened significantly relative to its main competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 95.46. The pair EUR/USD came under attack amid the ECB stimulating measures increase rumors. By the end of the day the pair euro/dollar had decreased.


    During the day the pair GBP/USD was also under pressure amid the UK April weak inflation data. The CPI went into the negative territory for the first time since 1960 and against this background the trades ended with the quotations decrease despite a correction was observed earlier.


    The bullish trends in the world's leading stock markets contributed to demand for the pair USD/JPY which by the end of the day had increased.


    Taking in consideration the oil prices decline traders expected demand for the US dollar before the US Federal Reserve last meeting minutes publication. Bearing in mind the US low inflation expectations, we expected the "pigeon rhetoric" in the report and in this regard an upward rebound in the market.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The currency and the commodity markets’ sales with the US Treasury bond yields increase point out to the short-term trend reversal. During the day we noted the bearish sentiment predominance. Yesterday the ECB high-ranked official gave an interview in which he noted that the monetary regulator could increase the rates amid the summer time stimulating measures. Late in the evening the FOMC protocols were published.


    The euro decline against the US dollar was followed by the support levels’ breakthrough: 1.1260 and 1.1050. The levels’ breakthroughs were on the increased volumes.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.0925 soon.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The British pound was under pressure during the day. The CPI release showed the deflation for the first time since 1960. The Bank of England monetary policy minutes also do not promise dividends to the British pound- the monetary regulator has repeatedly stated about the deflation risks and also stated the fact that the strong pound had a negative impact on consumer prices.


    The pound decline against the US dollar reached the strong support level of 1.5460. The pair rebounded upwards to 1.5550 and then it fell again.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is at 1.5670.


    The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”.


    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.


    Trading recommendations


    We may expect the fall towards 1.5460 further on we expect a growth.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    Japan has published the GDP data for the first quarter. The GDP rose up by 0.6% in the first quarter and increased by 2.5% on the annual basis. The GDP rose up by 0.4% in the fourth quarter. The result was higher than the consensus forecast relative to the 0.4% growth on the quarterly basis.


    Despite the fact that the trading volumes are still in the low zone, the buyers were able to break through and consolidate above the resistance level of 120.40.


    The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement, and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    If the price fixates below the support 120.40, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 119.20.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  19. #199
    ValdisTF
    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    01.06.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    After the two-day growth the US dollar got under pressure. The USDX finished the last trading day at the mark of 97.14. By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD had increased amid the short positions profit taking after the US jobless claims negative release. Now investors do not have a good alternative to the US dollar. We also cannot ignore the "black gold" market dynamics. The oil trading finished in the "green zone" amid the US inventories decline.


    The UK GDP second assessment remains unchanged that at the moment put pressure on the pair GBP/USD which fell to the level of 1.5260 after which there was the short positions profit-taking that caused the technical rebound towards 1.5300. The UK National Statistical Office kept the GDP assessment for the first quarter unchanged despite the Bank of England positive forecasts about the May monetary policy meeting results. It should also be noted that the export and the consumer spending indicators were revised in to the negative side.


    The Japan weak April retail sales contributed to the pair USD/JPY growth which by the end of the day had increased.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    We pay attention to the US first quarter GDP publication. Taking into account this economic growth second assessment and the trade balance, industrial production and employment weak macroeconomic releases for March we expected the index revision downwards and the data output within the forecasted medians. The GDP decreased by 0,7%.


    The euro corrective growth is not supported by volumes and it looks quite weak. Buyers have broken through the resistance of 1.0925.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.1050. We do not exclude the falls to 1.0790.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    The UK National Statistical Office kept the GDP assessment for the first quarter unchanged despite the Bank of England positive forecasts about the May monetary policy meeting results. It should also be noted that the export and the consumer spending indicators were revised into the negative side.


    The downward trend is gradually losing its strength. In recent days we observe the reduced volatility in the market.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5390.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.


    Trading recommendations


    The approach to the level of 1.5390 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.5200, 1.5100.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    Japan has published a block of important macroeconomic statistics where the April inflation data are standing apart. The unemployment reduction and the average earnings growth in March indicate the CPI increase. The Japanese 10-year bond yields decreased by seven basis points in April which does not allow us to count on the data output significantly better than the forecasted medians.


    The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.30.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    We suppose the pair will go to 123.50 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 122.40 and 121.60.





    Franc (CHF)


    General overview


    After the US ambiguous economic data the US dollar corrected its achievements, but in general it remains positive.


    Last week the initial jobless claims totaled 282k against the expected. 270k, but the unfinished home sales transactions totaled 3.4% in April against expected 0.9%.


    The price is finding the first support at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9280. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9750.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.


    Trading recommendations


    We advise to short with the first target - 0.9280. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9160.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



  20. #200
    ValdisTF


    "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis


    04.06.2015


    Fundamental analysis


    The US dollar came under a sales wave – the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day at the mark of 95.90. By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD had increased after the euro area inflation positive data as well as the positive expectations about "the Greek question" resolution.


    It was expected that the ADP employment report as well as the services sector ISM index will be able to please the traders with the positive data. However the services sector ISM index came out worse then forecasted median and the ADP employment report – better then it was expected. The ISM manufacturing sector business climate index points out to the US economy growth which will contribute to the dollar increase.


    By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had increased amid short positions profit taking after the UK PMI construction sector positive releases.


    The pair USD/JPY set a fresh 12-year high near the mark of 125.05 and after that traders started to close long positions. However after a slight decrease as a result, the trading day ended with the quotations growth.






    Technical analysis


    Euro (EUR)


    General overview


    The euro has shown strong growth amid the positive expectations about "the Greek question" resolution.


    The euro is supported by the number of factors. The German and the US government bond yields reduction. The Greece and Germany negative bond yields are also declining amid the positive expectations about the Greece agreement with its creditors. The US April trade balance report pleased investors with strong data.


    The resistance level of 1.1150 breakthrough was followed by the euro active growth against the US dollar.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.1450.





    Pound (GBP)


    General overview


    We pay attention to the Markit Economics services sector PMI index release. The current indicator is higher than the annual average which indicates this economic sector growth. However the data came out worse then forecasted medians.


    The service sector ISM index negative data may contribute to the US Treasury bond yields decrease amid the US Federal Reserve monetary policy tightening expectations.


    The pound two-week decline was followed by the correction formation. The corrective price increase was on the high volume.


    The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is at 1.5460.


    There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.


    The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    We expect the 1.5300 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 1.5200, further then towards 1.5100.





    Yen (JPY)


    General overview


    The Japanese yen received fewer dividends of all majors. Investors are increasing their long positions on dips based on the uptrend continuation. The manufacturing sector ISM index points out to the positive dynamics continuation in a series of the US macro-economic reports.


    The Japan and the US negative bond yields increase may put pressure on the Japanese yen.


    Having consolidated for a short time below the support level of 124.30, the price returned above the level, breaking through it through down - top.


    The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00.


    There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.


    The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.


    Trading recommendations


    The buyers need to break above 125.50 for a steady growth.





    *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.



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